With a slow free-agency period barely getting started, it seems like a good time to take stock of all 30 clubs before big signings occur. I'd love to tell you how much each team has to spend and, for that matter, how much each free agent will get and when they'll sign, but this winter has more uncertainty than any other in recent memory.
Take this as a stock check on each organization in terms of where they stand on the competitive cycle, club leadership, payroll space and flexibility, and paths to contention. I've chosen to list the whole 40-man roster, excepting the fringe types who are over age 25, and I've added with an asterisk some players not on the 40-man who may soon be added or become relevant during the 2021 season.
Players are listed with their age on Opening Day 2021 and their 2021 salary or arbitration status. Key: Pre-Arb -- pre-arbitration (less than three years of service); Arb1 (first year of arbitration eligibility); Arb2 (second year of eligibility); Arb3 (third year of eligibility).
Jump to a team:
ARI | ATL | CHC | CIN | COL | LAD | MIA | MIL | NYM | PHI | PIT | SD | SF | STL | WSH
NL East
Lineup: C Travis d'Arnaud (32; $8M), 1B Freddie Freeman (31; $22M), 2B Ozzie Albies (24; $3M), SS Dansby Swanson (27; Arb2), 3B Austin Riley (24; Pre-Arb), LF Adam Duvall (32; Arb3), CF Cristian Pache (22; Pre-Arb), RF Ronald Acuna Jr. (23; $5M)
Bench: C Alex Jackson (25; Pre-Arb), INF Johan Camargo (27; Arb2), OF Ender Inciarte (30; $8.7M), OF Abraham Almonte (31; TBD)
Rotation: RHP Mike Soroka (23; Arb1), LHP Max Fried (27; Arb1), RHP Ian Anderson (22; Pre-Arb), LHP Drew Smyly (31; $11M), RHP Kyle Wright (25; Pre-Arb)
Bullpen: LHP Will Smith (31; $13M), RHP Chris Martin (34; $7M), LHP Tyler Matzek (30; Pre-Arb), LHP A.J. Minter (27; Arb1), RHP Bryse Wilson (23; Pre-Arb), LHP Sean Newcomb (27; Pre-Arb), RHP Josh Tomlin (36; $1M), RHP Jacob Webb (27; Pre-Arb)
25-and-under (25U) 40-man options: C William Contreras (23), RHP Touki Toussaint (24), LHP Tucker Davidson (25), RHP Huascar Ynoa (22), RHP Jasseel De La Cruz (23), RHP Jeremy Walker (25)
Biggest issue: Bolstering the outfield and replacing Marcell Ozuna's bat
The Braves have a strong lineup, but there's some weakness in the outfield aside from Acuna. Pache looks poised to take over center field but doesn't have much experience, so Almonte and Inciarte are there, along with top prospect Drew Waters in Triple-A as cover. Duvall is a candidate to be non-tendered and, if all goes to plan, Waters and Pache will occupy center and left field by the end of 2021. This situation may call for one more veteran outfielder to be added to the mix if Duvall doesn't return.
Beyond the outfield situation, there isn't really any bad money, there's young depth to the 40-man and the rotation is cheap. There's always room for a couple more veterans to add seasoned length to the pitching staff on small guarantees or minor league deals, now that Smyly has been added to the fray this week.
The other big question is adding a replacement (or re-signing Ozuna) if the DH comes back in the NL. That still isn't settled, and due to lower revenues and other questions in the industry, the free-agent market will move slowly. One more decision on the horizon is NL MVP Freeman's deal, which expires at the end of the season. Given the corporate-dictated cutbacks in staffing this summer, money is more finite than ever and there could be a decision between an impact bat this winter versus re-signing Freeman.
Lineup: C Jorge Alfaro (27; Arb1), 1B Jesus Aguilar (30; Arb2), 2B Jon Berti (31; Pre-Arb), SS Miguel Rojas (32; $5M), 3B Brian Anderson (27; Arb1), LF Corey Dickerson (31; $9.5M), CF Starling Marte (32; $12.5M), RF Garrett Cooper (30; Arb1)
Bench: C Chad Wallach (29; Pre-Arb), 2B Isan Diaz (24; Pre-Arb), CF Lewis Brinson (26; Pre-Arb), CF Magneuris Sierra (24; Pre-Arb)
Rotation: RHP Sandy Alcantara (25; Pre-Arb), RHP Sixto Sanchez (22; Pre-Arb), RHP Pablo Lopez (25; Pre-Arb), LHP Trevor Rogers (23; Pre-Arb), RHP Elieser Hernandez (25; Pre-Arb)
Bullpen: RHP Yimi Garcia (30; Arb3), LHP Richard Bleier (34; Arb2), RHP James Hoyt (34; Pre-Arb), RHP Jose Urena (29; Arb3), RHP Nick Neidert (24; Pre-Arb), RHP Ryne Stanek (29; Arb1), RHP Jordan Holloway (24; Pre-Arb)
25U 40-man options: 1B Lewin Diaz (24), SS Jazz Chisholm (23), CF Monte Harrison (25), RF Jesus Sanchez (25), LHP Braxton Garrett (23), RHP Edward Cabrera (23), RHP Jordan Yamamoto (24), RHP Robert Dugger (25), LHP Alex Vesia (25), RHP Jorge Guzman (25)
Biggest issue: How to balance young up-and-comers with veterans, and trying to build on winning momentum
There was plenty of positive momentum for the Marlins in 2020: making the playoffs, having their young rotation come together, seeing the top level of their prospect list make the big leagues and acquiring Starling Marte for relatively little.
With all of that positive momentum though, look at this roster. For all the 25-and-under talent on the 40-man roster, only those in the rotation have actually done anything in the big leagues. The lineup has only one solid-performing 20-something (Brian Anderson). The bullpen is kind of a mess, and there's a slew of recent prospects who need playing time in Triple-A and/or the big leagues to determine what they can become. It will be tricky to both fold in the high-upside youngsters to help them hopefully turn into key cogs while also trying to grab some wins with the vets (who also have little value in trade).
The immediate needs are mainly catcher and the bullpen because the other iffy spots have young players waiting for playing time and clogging the roster with more veterans isn't helping the situation unless they provide a big upgrade. The roster, payroll and location in the competitive cycle don't really jive with making big splashy moves this winter, so look more for lower profile additions with seven-figure guarantees.
Lineup: C Tomas Nido (27; Pre-Arb), 1B Pete Alonso (26; Pre-Arb), 2B Robinson Cano (38; $24M), SS Andres Gimenez (22; Pre-Arb), 3B Jeff McNeil (28; Pre-Arb), LF Dominic Smith (25; Arb1), CF Brandon Nimmo (28; Arb2), RF Michael Conforto (28; Arb3)
Bench: C Ali Sanchez (24; Pre-Arb), SS Luis Guillorme (26; Pre-Arb), SS Amed Rosario (25; Arb1), 3B J.D. Davis (27; Arb1), CF Guillermo Heredia (30; Arb1)
Rotation: Jacob deGrom (32; $37.5M), Marcus Stroman (29; $18.9M), David Peterson (25; Pre-Arb), Steven Matz (29; Arb3), Seth Lugo (31; Arb2), Noah Syndergaard (28; Arb3)
Bullpen: Edwin Diaz (27; Arb2), Dellin Betances (33; $6.8M), Jeurys Familia (31; $11.6M), Miguel Castro (26; Arb2), Brad Brach (35; $2M), Chasen Shreve (30; Arb3)
25U 40-man options: Thomas Szapucki (24), Franklyn Kilome (25), Ariel Jurado (25)
Biggest issue: How big (and how soon) will new ownership spend?
This one feels like the blankest canvas in the league because of a new regime and deep-pocketed, big-market owner to go with a solid roster that could go in a couple of directions. Catcher is the easiest spot to fill and you could argue for signing two backstops as part of a platoon tandem and pushing Nido and Sanchez to Triple-A. It so happens the top free agent this year is catcher J.T. Realmuto, so that feels like a really easy connection to make, particularly in a depressed market.
Gimenez is the future at shortstop and Rosario now seems like the kind of guy the Mets need to trade for a couple of lower-tier prospects to a small market or rebuilding club that doesn't have a great shortstop option and can afford to see what comes of him. He's also still cheap and could be a solid platoon/insurance for Gimenez. The lineup is still fine if there's a DH since you could easily have Davis at third, McNeil in the outfield and Smith and/or Alonso at first and/or DH. McNeil's versatility also allows him to fill in or spell an injured or fatigued veteran.
That said, new owner Steve Cohen and baseball chief Sandy Alderson may be aiming higher. If they spend to the luxury tax, the Mets will have about $50 million to use on additions to the above roster. Let's assume there's either a DH in 2021 or the Mets will act like there will be one, since you can never have enough lineup depth and there almost certainly will be a DH in the NL in 2022 and beyond, and they have two first base/DH options in Alonso and Smith already in place.
Let's also assume that Realmuto signs with the Mets for $20 million-$25 million annually to fill the obvious big hole. That leaves $25 million-$30 million to address other issues. A veteran backup catcher, such as Jason Castro, Alex Avila or Tyler Flowers, can be had for a few million.
The remaining big fish among position players are free agent George Springer and trade targets Francisco Lindor, Kris Bryant (both free agents after 2021) and Nolan Arenado. New York could fit any of those into the payroll with little to no room left, and due to their big salaries, none would demand multiple premium pieces, though Lindor wouldn't come cheap. An additional hitter would push another player into a part-time role, and if there's no DH in 2021, there wouldn't be enough at-bats to go around.
On a championship level team, pitching depth is key, and Trevor Bauer added to deGrom, Stroman and Syndergaard (hopefully for most of the season) would better balance the team than adding a big-name bat. Peterson, Lugo and Matz would battle for the fifth spot in an ideal situation, but would all get plenty of innings. The bullpen could use a couple of additions, but there are plenty of ways to get cheap bullpen help on the free-agent market late in the process.
Stroman, Familia, Conforto, Syndergaard and Matz are the notables hitting free agency after the 2021 season, taking $65 million in payroll off the books. That would leave only two guaranteed contracts after 2021: Cano is still owed $24 million in 2022 and 2023 while deGrom could stay through the 2024 season, but right now looks likely to opt out of his deal after the 2022 season (with only a deferred $30.5 million in 2023 guaranteed if he opts in). So Cohen and Alderson have a pretty blank slate in terms of long-term commitments and could either play this flexible, trying to add premium talent on short-term deals, or go big and paper over the roster's shortcomings with big deals that only a few clubs can afford right now.
Lineup: C Andrew Knapp (29; Arb2), 1B Rhys Hoskins (28; Arb1), 2B Scott Kingery (26; $4.2M), SS Jean Segura (31; $14.8M), 3B Alec Bohm (24; Pre-Arb), LF Andrew McCutchen (34; $20M), CF Roman Quinn (27; Pre-Arb), RF Bryce Harper (28; $27.5M)
Bench: C Rafael Marchan (22; Pre-Arb), OF Adam Haseley (24; Pre-Arb)
Rotation: RHP Aaron Nola (27; $12.2M), RHP Zack Wheeler (30; $22.5M), RHP Zach Eflin (27; Arb2), RHP Spencer Howard (24; Pre-Arb), RHP Vince Velasquez (28; Arb3)
Bullpen: RHP Hector Neris (31; Arb3), RHP Connor Brogdon (26; Pre-Arb), LHP Ranger Suarez (25; Pre-Arb), RHP Victor Arano (26; Pre-Arb), RHP David Hale (33; Arb1), LHP JoJo Romero (24; Pre-Arb)
25U 40-man options: OF Mickey Moniak (22), RHP Adonis Medina (24), RHP Mauricio Llovera (25), RHP Ramon Rosso (24), LHP Cristopher Sanchez (24)
Biggest issue: Replacing -- or re-signing -- J.T. Realmuto
The Phillies are moving slowly enough on filling their open GM spot that it's unclear if they're going to stick with interim GM Ned Rice and soon-to-leave president Andy MacPhail or are doing a thorough search. Nevertheless, ownership wants to compete and this is a veteran club, so you'd expect some moves to shore up weaknesses, spending at least to within spitting distance of the luxury tax threshold, something like $60 million north of the club listed above.
There are some clear holes to address: replacing or bringing back Realmuto at catcher, adding at least veteran insurance for Kingery at second or someone to push him to a utility role, adding a center fielder to push Quinn to a reserve role, perhaps adding another power bat if the NL will have a DH and rebuilding the bullpen. At catcher, there's the premium option with Realmuto or cheaper options in James McCann or Yadier Molina. At second base, there are a number of suitable options, from DJ LeMahieu to Kolten Wong, Cesar Hernandez, Brad Miller or others. In center field, the list starts with George Springer or gets more affordable with Jackie Bradley Jr. Given the bulk of needs, it makes sense to wait and see which relievers will be cheap after being picked over a bit.
Taking the middle option for each of these needs will cost about $45-50 million, so there's room to grab the high end at one of those spots, broadly speaking. While I think Miami isn't a real threat in 2021, the NL East will be competitive, so it's important for Philly to thread this needle this winter as there are some real decisions to be made.
Lineup: C Yan Gomes (33; $6M), 1B Jake Noll (27; Pre-Arb), 2B Starlin Castro (31; $6M), SS Trea Turner (27; Arb3), 3B Carter Kieboom (23; Pre-Arb), LF Andrew Stevenson (26; Pre-Arb), CF Victor Robles (23; Pre-Arb), RF Juan Soto (22; Arb1)
Bench: C Tres Barrera (26; Pre-Arb), 2B Josh Harrison (33; $1M), SS Luis Garcia (20; Pre-Arb), OF Yadiel Hernandez (33; Pre-Arb)
Rotation: RHP Max Scherzer (36; $34.5M), LHP Patrick Corbin (31; $24.4M), RHP Stephen Strasburg (32; $35M), RHP Joe Ross (27; Arb2), RHP Erick Fedde (28; Pre-Arb)
Bullpen: RHP Tanner Rainey (28; Pre-Arb), RHP Will Harris (36; $8M), RHP Daniel Hudson (34; $6M), RHP Wander Suero (29; Arb1), RHP Austin Voth (28; Pre-Arb), RHP Kyle McGowin (29; Pre-Arb), RHP Kyle Finnegan (29; Pre-Arb)
25U 40-man options: LHP Seth Romero (25), RHP Steven Fuentes (23)
Biggest issue: Patching numerous lineup holes with a limited budget
With the losses of Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon and Ryan Zimmerman along with regression from Robles and shaky debuts from Kieboom and Garcia, the Nationals lineup has some holes to address. Acquiring new starters for first base and left field would be atop the list, along with maybe even one more corner power bat as a potential DH and insurance for Kieboom and the two new acquisitions. A lefty-hitting backup catcher such as Jason Castro or Alex Avila could be an upgrade worth pursuing and some cheap veteran pitching depth never hurts.
It's really hard to tell how much money any team has to spend this offseason, or how low free-agent prices will fall, but there's only about $20-25 million between what the Nats' payroll would have been last year (before pro-rating for the 60-game season) and what it is right now (adding projected arbitration salaries). The Nationals could address all their needs if they kept the AAV's of each addition in the seven-figure area, but then they'd run the risk of not actually solving any of the problems completely.
One way to stretch money to solve lineup problems is to patch together platoons with somewhat limited players, rather than signing a more expensive everyday player. For example, free agent Brad Miller (projected at one year, $7 million) is a lefty hitter who can passably play six positions and looks like a good bet to hit at a league-average level, possibly covering for an injury or down season from multiple starters. This sort of addition becomes more feasible with a couple of extra bench spots, which could be achieved by carrying fewer pitchers as many of Washington's relievers are former starters who can go multiple innings (i.e. Voth and McGowin, hopefully adding another).
Grabbing a righty-hitting left fielder and lefty-hitting first baseman, ideally both with some positional flexibility, then pairing them with Stevenson and Harrison would be one way to go while also indirectly filling other holes. All of this becomes more important due to Washington's bottom-five farm system; they're trying to work in Kieboom and Garcia, maybe Romero or Wil Crowe, but there aren't many other options of consequence for 2021 or maybe even 2022.
The Braves are set up to be in a good spot the next few seasons due to their core youngsters and conservative approach to long-term deals, while the Mets, Phillies and Nationals need a shrewd offseason and some luck to keep pace, as the Marlins transition from veterans to youngsters and try to join this group in 2022.
NL Central
Lineup: C Willson Contreras (28; Arb2), 1B Anthony Rizzo (31; $16.5M), 2B Nico Hoerner (23; Pre-Arb), SS Javier Baez (28; Arb3), 3B Kris Bryant (29; Arb4), LF Kyle Schwarber (28; Arb3), CF Ian Happ (26; Arb1), RF Jason Heyward (31; $23.5M)
Bench: C Victor Caratini (27; Arb1), 1B Jose Martinez (32; Arb2), 3B David Bote (28; $1M), CF Albert Almora Jr. (27; Pre-Arb)
Rotation: RHP Yu Darvish (34; $23M), RHP Kyle Hendricks (31; $14M), RHP Alec Mills (29; Pre-Arb), RHP Adbert Alzolay (26; Pre-Arb), RHP Colin Rea (30; Pre-Arb)
Bullpen: RHP Craig Kimbrel (32; $16M), RHP Ryan Tepera (33; Arb3), RHP Jason Adam (29; Pre-Arb), RHP Rowan Wick (28; Pre-Arb), RHP Duane Underwood Jr. (26; Pre-Arb)
25U 40-man options: C Miguel Amaya (22), 2B Max Schrock (26), LHP Brailyn Marquez (22), RHP Tyson Miller (25), LHP Justin Steele (25), RHP Manuel Rodriguez (24), *RHP Cory Abbott (25) WHAT IS ASTERISK FOR?
Biggest issue: How to balance one last run with this core versus getting to a sustainable reload
The elephant in the room with the Cubs is all of the talent set to hit free agency after the 2021 season: Baez, Bryant, Rizzo and Schwarber, along with Kimbrel, due to his $16 million mutual option that is unlikely to get picked up. That takes about $72 million off the books but also something like a dozen WAR. That will reset things a bit from a salary standpoint, with Heyward ($24.5 million), Darvish ($20 million) and Hendricks ($14 million) as the only significant guaranteed salaries on the books for 2022.
The Cubs are rumored to be in a bit of a financial spot this offseason, without much payroll flexibility to add to the roster after handing out just roughly $2 million in free agency guarantees last offseason. It would appear the previously untouchable veterans, particularly those on expiring deals, are available in trade to help create a bridge to the next contending team and some financial breathing room.
So while there's not much that can easily and realistically be done with this club, the lineup and bench are both solid. The starting rotation could use some veteran length as it includes only two sure things, and the bullpen probably could use another couple of veterans as well. This likely means that the Cubbies will wait until January, see what veteran arms will be available on small seven-figure guarantees and add a few on minor and major league deals.
What happens after 2021 is the real question here. Happ, Hoerner, Amaya and Marquez are the hopeful long-term cornerstones, and there are still some solid veterans around, but there could be some lean times while the belt may still be tightened with the next wave of young talent (CF Brennen Davis, SS Ed Howard, LF Cole Roederer, 2B Chase Strumpf) not having arrived yet.
Lineup: C Tucker Barnhart (30; $4.1M), 1B Joey Votto (37; $25M), 2B Mike Moustakas (32; $14M), SS Jose Garcia (23; Pre-Arb), 3B Eugenio Suarez (29; $10.7M), LF Jesse Winker (27; Arb1), CF Shogo Akiyama (33; $7M), RF Nick Castellanos (29; $14M)
Bench: C Curt Casali (32; Arb3), 3B Kyle Farmer (30; Pre-Arb), CF Nick Senzel (25; Pre-Arb), RF Aristedes Aquino (27; Pre-Arb)
Rotation: RHP Luis Castillo (28; Arb1), RHP Sonny Gray (31; $10.6M), RHP Tyler Mahle (26; Arb1), RHP Michael Lorenzen (29; Arb3), LHP Wade Miley (34; $8M)
Bullpen: RHP Raisiel Iglesias (31; $9.1M), LHP Amir Garrett (28; Arb1), RHP Archie Bradley (28; Arb3), RHP Lucas Sims (26; Pre-Arb), RHP Tejay Antone (27; Pre-Arb), RHP Sal Romano (27; Pre-Arb)
25U 40-Man Options: C Tyler Stephenson (24), RHP Tony Santillan (24)
Biggest Issue: If Bauer doesn't return, can they upgrade the offense enough to go deeper in the playoffs?
The Reds had a busy winter last year and broke through this season to make the playoffs on the strength of their starting rotation. There isn't a ton to adjust on the roster for that reason, but there are some spots to upgrade.
Re-signing Trevor Bauer would be great, but Lorenzen is moving to the rotation as a preemptive move, so some low-guarantee veteran depth would be useful but not required to provide some cover. Catcher is a bit of a problem, but Stephenson looks about ready to take over from Barnhart. Senzel and Aquino offer platoon partners for Winker and Akiyama along with DH possibilities if necessary. They could use an offense-over-defense utility type who can fill in at shortstop if Garcia continues to have offensive growing pains, with Ha-Seong Kim, Brad Miller and Enrique Hernandez representing various price points of that type.
Like most teams, we don't know how much money the Reds have to spend -- I'd assume there isn't enough to re-sign Bauer, but that's more of a guess -- but there's enough to add something substantive to the offense.
Lineup: C Omar Narvaez (29; Arb2), 1B Dan Vogelbach (28; Arb1), 2B Keston Hiura (23; Pre-Arb), SS Orlando Arcia (26; Arb2), 3B Luis Urias (23; Pre-Arb), LF Christian Yelich (29; $14M), CF Lorenzo Cain (34; $17M), RF Avisail Garcia (29; $10.7M)
Bench: C Manny Pina (33; Arb3), C Jacob Nottingham (26; Pre-Arb), LF Ben Gamel (28; Arb2), CF Tyrone Taylor (27; Pre-Arb)
Rotation: RHP Brandon Woodruff (28; Arb1), RHP Corbin Burnes (26; Pre-Arb), RHP Josh Lindblom (33; $3M), RHP Adrian Houser (28; Pre-Arb), LHP Eric Lauer (25; Pre-Arb)
Bullpen: LHP Josh Hader (27; Arb2), RHP Devin Williams (26; Pre-Arb), RHP Freddy Peralta (24; $1.2M), LHP Brent Suter (31; $1.5M), RHP Corey Knebel (29; Arb3), RHP Justin Topa (30; Pre-Arb), LHP Alex Claudio (29; Arb3), RHP Eric Yardley (30; Pre-Arb)
25U 40-Man Options: *C Mario Feliciano (22), RHP Drew Rasmussen (25), RHP Phil BIckford (25)
Biggest Issue: How can they use a smallish payroll to infuse the roster with more (young) talent to bolster their star core? Trading Josh Hader and being opportunistic in free agency.
The top of this roster is really strong: Two position players in Yelich and Hiura (even with a down 2020), two starters in Woodruff and Burnes, two relievers in Hader and Williams. If you're drafting all 30 teams based on their top six long-term big league players, that's easily top-10 while coming from a small-market club with a payroll in the bottom third of the league.
Beyond that, it's actually pretty ugly considering this team made the playoffs last year. The farm system is bottom-third and there isn't another slam-dunk two-win player on the big league roster. The best bet is 34-year-old Cain, who is making $17 million this year and $18 million in 2022. He had a fantastic first year with Milwaukee, posting 5.7 WAR in 2018, then 1.5 in a full 2019 before opting out five games into 2020. Garcia will make $10.75 million in 2021 after a rough offensive 2020 in the first year of his free-agent deal. It was more bad luck than bad planning, but Yelich's deal balloons in 2022 to his new extension at $26 million per year through 2028, signed at what may have been the peak of the market, after the record-setting 2019-20 winter.
The Brewers didn't lose much talent from 2020's playoff squad, but they also didn't get much money off the books, so it's unlikely there's much money to spend. Rumors of a Hader trade make sense: Williams has emerged as a new relief ace, Hader still has three years of control, relievers are volatile, and this roster needs more young upside talent.
There's a real skill in this front office to take players off the scrap heap and turn them into usable big leaguers, but the issues to solve here stretch from about the 15th to the 40th player on the 40-man roster. In terms of specific needs, I'd look to first base, offensive utility infielder (I guess I'm saying everyone should be on Brad Miller, Enrique Hernandez, and Ha-Seong Kim), fifth starter, and any bargain veterans to be found in January and February. The Brewers should be a preferred destination for those types both due to playing time and development.
Lineup: C Jacob Stallings (31; Arb1), 1B Josh Bell (28; Arb2), 2B Adam Frazier (29; Arb2), SS Kevin Newman (27; Pre-Arb), 3B Ke'Bryan Hayes (24; Pre-Arb), LF Colin Moran (28; Arb1), CF Bryan Reynolds (26; Pre-Arb), RF Gregory Polanco (29; $11.6M)
Bench: C Michael Perez (28; Pre-Arb), 1B Jose Osuna (28; Arb1), SS Erik Gonzalez (29; Arb2), 3B Phil Evans (28; Pre-Arb), CF Anthony Alford (26; Pre-Arb)
Rotation: RHP Joe Musgrove (28; Arb2), RHP Jameson Taillon (29; Arb2), LHP Steven Brault (28; Arb1), RHP Trevor Williams (28; Arb2), RHP Mitch Keller (25; Pre-Arb)
Bullpen: RHP Richard Rodriguez (31; Arb1), RHP Chris Stratton (30; Arb1), RHP Michael Feliz (27; Arb3), RHP Kyle Crick (28; Arb1), RHP Chad Kuhl (28; Arb2), RHP J.T. Brubaker (27; Pre-Arb), LHP Sam Howard (28; Pre-Arb)
25U 40-Man Options: SS Cole Tucker (24), 3B Oneil Cruz (22), CF Jared Oliva (25), RHP Blake Cederlind (25), RHP Nick Mears (24)
Biggest Issue: Focus on adding more talent via opportunistic free agency and selling high on 30-somethings playing well.
The Pirates are still in the asset collection stage of their rebuild and aren't very competitive right now but also have no guaranteed money beyond the 2021 season. Stallings has some qualities similar to former Mariners catcher Austin Nola, an older catcher who emerged as a solid starter later in his career and comes with multiple years of control. A contending team could see him as an affordable target once the handful of starting catchers go off the free-agent market.
Bell had a down year, Reynolds had a down year after a breakout 2019, and Polanco had his third down year in the past four seasons. Hayes is a definite keeper (Bell and Reynolds are, too), and the rest is a mess of up-and-down with potential or band-aid journeyman platoon types. The position-player youngsters on the 40-man (Cruz and Oliva) should be worked in during 2021, while the best of a top-five system (SS Liover Peguero, CF Travis Swaggerty, 2B Nick Gonzales) is the hope for the core of the next Pirates playoff lineup. Opportunistic bargain shopping is all that makes sense here.
The rotation isn't bad and Taillon should return in 2021. The bullpen is sort of a mess, with Rodriguez and Stratton the only strong bets to make the Opening Day roster, so the Buccos will be looking to add bulk here and will be a preferred choice for veterans on minor league deals hoping for opportunity.
Lineup: C Andrew Knizner (26; Pre-Arb), 1B Paul Goldschmidt (33; $26M), 2B Tommy Edman (25; Pre-Arb), SS Paul DeJong (27; $4.1M), 3B Matt Carpenter (35; $18.5M), LF Dylan Carlson (22; Pre-Arb), CF Harrison Bader (26; Arb1), RF Dexter Fowler (35; $16.5M)
Bench: C Tyler Heineman (29; Pre-Arb), SS Edmundo Sosa (25; Pre-Arb), LF Austin Dean (27; Pre-Arb), RF Tyler O'Neill (25; Pre-Arb)
Rotation: RHP Jack Flaherty (25; Arb1), LHP Kwang-Hyun Kim (32; $4M), RHP Miles Mikolas (32; $17M), RHP Carlos Martinez (29; $11.5M), LHP Austin Gomber (27; Pre-Arb)
Bullpen: RHP Giovanny Gallegos (29; Pre-Arb), LHP Andrew Miller (35; $12M), RHP Alex Reyes (26; Arb1), RHP Jordan Hicks (24; Arb1), LHP Tyler Webb (30; Pre-Arb), RHP Ryan Helsley (26; Pre-Arb), LHP Genesis Cabrera (24; Pre-Arb), RHP John Gant (28; Arb2)
25U 40-Man Options: 3B Elehuris Montero (22), CF Lane Thomas (25), RF Justin Williams (25), RHP Johan Oviedo (23), RHP Jake Woodford (24), RHP Junior Fernandez (24), RHP Seth Elledge (24)
Biggest Issue: Add some help to the lineup with Molina's return and another power bat
It feels weird to list a Cardinals lineup without Yadier Molina, but he's a free agent so it must be this way for now. I'd imagine he'll come back and the Cards will look to add another corner bat, as Carlson hasn't found his footing yet and Carpenter and Fowler are both more like part-timers. Dean and O'Neill provide for platoon cover, but a potential DH and diversifying the lineup a bit would help. I don't think the Mets are looking to move him, but 3B J.D. Davis would fit this need perfectly.
The rotation has some question marks, so adding a veteran there (maybe Adam Wainwright?) and maybe another bullpen arm would make some sense, but there's a nice layer of young talent on the 40-man already, so it isn't essential.
Given how much of the Cardinals' revenue comes from game-day operations, there's likely to be some level of a payroll cut, so I wouldn't expect a big-spending offseason after catcher is addressed. The NL Central isn't very good, so the Dodgers or Braves aren't the target, even if there's just the normal four-team NL field; 85 wins could take this division.
NL West
Lineup: C Carson Kelly (26; Arb1), 1B Christian Walker (30; Arb1), 2B Ketel Marte (27; $6.4M), SS Nick Ahmed (31; $7.8M), 3B Eduardo Escobar (32; $7.6M), LF David Peralta (33; $7.5M), CF Daulton Varsho (24; Pre-Arb), RF Kole Calhoun (33; $8M)
Bench: C Stephen Vogt (36; $3.5M), 2B Josh VanMeter (26; Pre-Arb), 2B Domingo Leyba (25; Pre-Arb), 2B Andy Young (26; Pre-Arb), 3B Wyatt Mathisen (27; Pre-Arb), CF Tim Locastro (28; Pre-Arb)
Rotation: RHP Zac Gallen (25; Pre-Arb), RHP Luke Weaver (27; Arb1), RHP Merrill Kelly (32; $4.2M), LHP Madison Bumgarner (31; $19M), LHP Caleb Smith (29; Arb1)
Bullpen: RHP Stefan Crichton (29; Pre-Arb), RHP Junior Guerra (36; Arb3), RHP Kevin Ginkel (27; Pre-Arb), RHP Taylor Clarke (27; Pre-Arb), LHP Alex Young (27; Pre-Arb), RHP Keury Mella (27; Pre-Arb), RHP Jon Duplantier (26; Pre-Arb), RHP Riley Smith (26; Pre-Arb)
25U 40-Man Options: 1B Pavin Smith (25), *CF Stu Fairchild (25), RHP Corbin Martin (25), *RHP J.B Bukauskas (24), RHP Jeremy Beasley (25), RHP Emilio Vargas (24), RHP Humberto Mejia (24)
Biggest Issue: Add veteran free-agent depth in anticipation of a mess of upside youngsters showing up in 2022, hopefully opening a window of playoff contention.
Arizona is in a much different competitive position this winter than they were last winter. Last winter they'd just added Bumgarner on a five-year deal, added Starling Marte in a go-for-it for multiple years type trade and looked like a frisky fringe contender with a top-10 farm system and well-regarded front office.
Except that 2020 didn't go to plan. Ketel Marte, Bumgarner, Kelly, Escobar, the since departed Starling Marte, Robbie Ray, Jon Jay and Jake Lamb all performed well below expectations, Archie Bradley was also traded en route to a last-place finish. There are rumblings the Marte trade to Miami was financially influenced and now the division has an overachiever in San Francisco to go with another perennial playoff contender in San Diego and a monster in Los Angeles. It appears to be time for Arizona to go through a reload and move on from some retail-priced veterans in favor of pieces from their top-ten farm system.
There's some solid keepers to build around: Kelly, Marte, Ahmed, Varsho, Gallen, Weaver and Kelly all can fill substantive roles on contending clubs. Veterans Calhoun, Ahmed, Peralta and Bumgarner are nice pieces to have on a winning team. First and third base are both potential spots to upgrade with a cheap left-handed veteran platoon option, along with a right-handed fourth outfielder type, another veteran starter, and a couple relievers. These could all cost $5 million or less in this market to fit in what is probably a tight budget, with the priority being the potential long-term contributors on the farm.
As for the prospects who could get looks in 2021 or early in 2022, there's Pavin Smith and Seth Beet at first base, and Geraldo Perdomo at shortstop, along with a mess of center fielders: Kristian Robinson, Alek Thomas, Corbin Carroll and Stu Fairchild. On the mound, Martin, Bukauskas, Levi Kelly and a handful of seven-figure draftees (Slade Cecconi, Blake Walston, Bryce Jarvis, Drey Jameson, Matt Tabor) could all arrive relatively soon; six of them have been on Top 100s recently.
Lineup: C Tony Wolters (28; Arb3), 1B Josh Fuentes (28; Pre-Arb), 2B Ryan McMahon (26; Arb1), SS Trevor Story (28; $18.5M), 3B Nolan Arenado (30; $35M), LF Raimel Tapia (27; Arb1), CF David Dahl (27; Arb2), RF Charlie Blackmon (34; $21M)
Bench: C Elias Diaz (30; Arb2), 2B Garrett Hampson (26; Pre-Arb), SS Brendan Rodgers (24; Pre-Arb), OF Sam Hilliard (27; Pre-Arb), LF Ian Desmond (35; $8M)
Rotation: RHP German Marquez (26; $7.8M), LHP Kyle Freeland (27; Arb2), RHP Jon Gray (29; Arb3), RHP Antonio Senzatela (26; Arb1), RHP Ryan Castellani (25; Pre-Arb)
Bullpen: RHP Scott Oberg (31; $4M), RHP Daniel Bard (35; Arb2), RHP Mychal Givens (30; Arb3), RHP Yency Almonte (26; Pre-Arb), RHP Carlos Estevez (28; Arb2), RHP Jesus Tinoco (25; Pre-Arb), RHP Jeff Hoffman (28; Pre-Arb), RHP Tyler Kinley (30; Pre-Arb)
25U 40-Man Options: *3B Colton Welker (23), RHP Antonio Santos (24), RHP Jose Mujica (24), RHP Tommy Doyle (24)
Biggest Issue: Just add four everyday players and two starting pitchers and figure out the Arenado mess. No big deal.
The Rockies are consistently one of the most confusing organizations in the game, and it's not just to me. The lineup is just a mess: Wolters, Fuentes, McMahon and Tapia are in their best lineup right now and should all be reserves. The best long-term player on the bench is Rodgers, who has been hurt and/or bad much of his limited big league time, so Triple-A may be the best spot for him to start 2021. Diaz has been "good" for -1.2 WAR in 888 PA while Desmond has produced -1.7 WAR in three seasons with Colorado in exchange for $45 million to date, truly one of the most disastrous free-agent contracts of all-time.
The needs are a new everyday catcher, first baseman, second baseman and left fielder, without even addressing the franchise player who doesn't want to be there (Arenado) and the next-best player (Story) who will be a free agent after the season. With Rodgers and Hampson and McMahon as young middle infield options, they seem ready to let Story walk with Arenado and Blackmon the chosen high-salary hitters. With Arenado, to facilitate a deal they'd have to eat some money but need to save face and get a real return, and both of those things won't exist until ballparks are at least half-full and maybe never.
I have no idea how much money GM Jeff Bridich has to spend or if he sees any of these gaping holes as problems that need to be addressed. FanGraphs has the current version of the offense as the second-worst in baseball, even with Arenado and Story, and it would cost roughly $94.5 million for the 2021 season.
The pitching is in a little better shape. They could use two starting pitchers to push Senzatela and Castellani into long relief/spot starter roles. Colorado, like every team, could probably take another veteran middle reliever as well. FanGraphs has them as the 21st best pitching staff.
Lineup: C Will Smith (26; Pre-Arb), 1B Max Muncy (30; $9M), 2B Chris Taylor (30; $7.8M), SS Corey Seager (26; Arb3), 3B Edwin Rios (27; Pre-Arb), LF A.J. Pollock (33; $19M), CF Cody Bellinger (25; Arb2), RF Mookie Betts (28; $22.9M)
Bench: C Austin Barnes (31; Arb2), 1B Matt Beaty (27; Pre-Arb), 2B Gavin Lux (23; Pre-Arb)
Rotation: LHP Clayton Kershaw (33; $31M), RHP Walker Buehler (26; Arb1), RHP Dustin May (23; Pre-Arb), LHP David Price (35; $32M), LHP Julio Urias (24; Arb2)
Bullpen: RHP Kenley Jansen (33; $20.8M), RHP Brusdar Graterol (22; Pre-Arb), RHP Tony Gonsolin (26; Pre-Arb), RHP Joe Kelly (32; $8.8M), LHP Victor Gonzalez (25; Pre-Arb), RHP Dylan Floro (30; Pre-Arb), LHP Adam Kolarek (32; Arb1)
25U 40-Man Options: C Keibert Ruiz (22), 2B Zach McKinstry (25), RF D.J. Peters (25), RHP Dennis Santana (25), LHP Caleb Ferguson (24), *RHP Josiah Gray (23)
Biggest Issue: Re-sign Turner and add a couple lower-tier veteran free agents. See? They don't really have issues.
The lineup still requires a few moves with Enrique Hernandez, Justin Turner and Joc Pederson all becoming free agents. The Dodgers shouldn't have trouble affording all of them if they want and I'd expect Turner to return, but I could see some other utility/platoon types filling those holes as well. Ruiz should get more playing time in 2021 and I'd expect Lux to take the second base job, making Rios and Taylor the righty and lefty multi-positional options to fill holes and spell regulars.
The pitching staff is strong and, even if you want to nitpick, the deals with veterans on big salaries all expire soon. Kershaw's $31 million and Jansen's $20.8 million salaries in 2021 close out their current contracts, while Price makes $32 million in 2021 and 2022 but half of that is being paid by Boston. Betts is the only guaranteed money locked in for 2023 as the only exception, which is another way of saying Andrew Friedman avoided long-term deals at all costs until Betts got his long-term mega-deal.
As you can tell, I'm kinda stretching to find things the Dodgers need to do, short of re-signing Turner for one or two years, and adding or re-signing at least one of those other two free-agent bats. They usually sign a couple bounce-back veterans for small guarantees, so I'd expect a few of those as well. Even with recent graduations, the Dodgers have an average farm system and one more top-tier arm in Josiah Gray, who should get a first real MLB look in 2021. That's on top of the already six-man rotation that pushed the fourth-place NL Rookie of the Year finisher Gonsolin to the bullpen in this projection.
In the big picture, Seager, Kershaw, Jansen and Taylor are all free agents after 2021 and I could see the club taking that opportunity to let a couple of them leave and get younger, but it's too early to really know what the market and league payrolls will look like in a year.
Lineup: C Austin Nola (31; Pre-Arb), 1B Eric Hosmer (31; $21M), 2B Jake Cronenworth (27; Pre-Arb), SS Fernando Tatis Jr. (22; Pre-Arb), 3B Manny Machado (28; $32M), LF Tommy Pham (33; Arb3), CF Trent Grisham (24; Pre-Arb), RF Wil Myers (30; $22.5M)
Bench: C Francisco Mejia (25; Pre-Arb), SS Greg Garcia (31; Arb3), SS Jorge Mateo (25; Pre-Arb), CF Greg Allen (28; Pre-Arb)
Rotation: RHP Dinelson Lamet (28; Arb2), RHP Chris Paddack (25; Pre-Arb), RHP Zach Davies (28; Arb3), LHP Adrian Morejon (22; Pre-Arb), LHP Joey Lucchesi (27; Pre-Arb)
Bullpen: LHP Drew Pomeranz (32; $8M), RHP Austin Adams (29; Pre-Arb), RHP Pierce Johnson (29; $2M), RHP Emilio Pagan (29; Arb1), RHP Craig Stammen (37; $4M), LHP Matt Strahm (29; Arb2), LHP Tim Hill (31; Pre-Arb), RHP Javy Guerra (25; Pre-Arb)
25U 40-Man Options: C Luis Campusano (22), LF Jorge Ona (24), RHP Luis Patino (21), RHP Michel Baez (25), RHP Anderson Espinoza (23), LHP Ryan Weathers (21), *LHP MacKenzie Gore (22), LHP Jose Castillo (25)
Biggest Issue: Add a starter or two to bridge until Clevinger and the Gore/Patino/Weathers prospect crew can stabilize the rotation in 2022.
The Padres had their breakthrough season in 2020, then GM A.J. Preller made aggressive moves to stock up for the playoffs, and they ultimately failed due largely to injuries to their top two starters in Mike Clevinger and Lamet. Clevinger will miss all of 2021 with Tommy John surgery, so there's a need for at least one more starter in free agency.
With their wealth of young, close-to-MLB-ready super prospects in Patino, Gore and Weathers, along with quality depth to the pitchers on their 40-man, the Padres don't need a bunch of innings-eaters. This makes them uniquely qualified to dip into the upside/injury risk part of the free-agent starting pitching pool, where you guarantee one year at decent (usually $5-10 million) guaranteed money with lots of incentives and either get lengthy IL stays or a dominant starter.
This group includes James Paxton, Chris Archer and Corey Kluber, but if you broaden the definition a bit, you could include Brett Anderson and Garrett Richards, in addition to the top of the market with fewer questions: Trevor Bauer and Masahiro Tanaka. There isn't really a notable frontline starter on the trade block (maybe Lance Lynn?), so I'd expect some action with the Padres and the upside end of the pitching market, particularly with some of that market (Drew Smyly, Robbie Ray, Kevin Gausman) already signing. The Padres could probably stand to add one more late-inning relief option as well.
The lineup is excellent, with right-handed-hitting corner outfielder Pham and Myers two weaker spots worth addressing with a lefty-hitting complement. There isn't a perfect fit on the free-agent market, as Michael Brantley is more of a DH, Marcell Ozuna is right-handed and also a DH, Robbie Grossman and Joc Pederson may not really address the issue, but maybe just diversifying and platooning could help. Garcia seems like the only likely Opening Day bench player, and a lefty-hitting backup catcher could make sense as Mejia has been just okay and Campusano will probably need another year in the minors.
Lineup: C Buster Posey (34; $18.5M), 1B Brandon Belt (33; $14.5M), 2B Donovan Solano (33; Arb3), SS Brandon Crawford (34; $12.5M), 3B Evan Longoria (35; $11.1M), LF Alex Dickerson (30; Arb2), CF Mauricio Dubon (26; Pre-Arb), RF Mike Yastrzemski (30; Pre-Arb)
Bench: C Joey Bart (24; Pre-Arb), C Aramis Garcia (28; Pre-Arb), 1B Darin Ruf (34; Arb1), SS Wilmer Flores (29; $3.1M), SS Daniel Robertson (27; Arb2), 3B Jason Vosler (27; Pre-Arb), RF Austin Slater (28; Arb1)
Rotation: RHP Kevin Gausman (30; $18.9M), RHP Johnny Cueto (35; $22M), LHP Tyler Anderson (31; Arb3), RHP Logan Webb (24; Pre-Arb), LHP Andrew Suarez (28; Pre-Arb)
Bullpen: RHP Tyler Rogers (30; Pre-Arb), RHP Reyes Moronta (28; Arb1), LHP Wandy Peralta (29; Arb2), LHP Jarlin Garcia (28; Arb1), RHP Tyler Beede (27; Pre-Arb), LHP Caleb Baragar (27; Pre-Arb), LHP Sam Selman (30; Pre-Arb), RHP Trevor Gott (28; Arb1), RHP Melvin Adon (26; Pre-Arb)
25U 40-Man Options: CF Luis Alexander Basabe (24), *RF Heliot Ramos (21), *RHP Gregory Santos (21), RHP Jordan Humphreys (24), LHP Conner Menez (25),
Biggest Issue: Add depth to the pitching staff and try to find a few more diamonds in the rough to bridge until the next wave of prospect talent arrives, or a post-2021 free agency splurge occurs.
The Giants missed the playoffs due to a tiebreaker, but they were a 29-31 team that's retooling on the fly in a big market with a bunch of past-their-prime veterans on guaranteed deals. GM Farhan Zaidi's crew has already shown an ability to make the most out of pitchers on the scrapheap (Drew Pomeranz, Drew Smyly, Gausman in the last two seasons) and they'll continue to troll the waiver wire, minor league deals, and the small-guarantee portion of the free-agent market for buy-low opportunities. Wading into the riskier upside starting pitching market makes some sense, where injury risks like James Paxton, Corey Kluber and Chris Archer reside.
The bullpen is mostly a mess, so that's an easy spot to make over for something like $10-15 million in guarantees without having to commit to long-term deals. Gausman has a shot to be a frontline type starter, Cueto and Anderson are innings-eaters, Webb has a shot to stick around, and Suarez should probably be a long reliever or rise the Triple-A shuttle. There's room for two free-agent starting pitchers.
Dubon is the only 20-something in the lineup, but it probably won't be that way for long; Longoria's $19.6 million salary in 2022 is the only guaranteed salary on the books beyond this year. So, like the Marlins, the Giants are looking to both win games and transition to younger players. The Giants don't have quite the bulk of upper-minors premium prospects, but the development track record is superior and there's a lot more payroll upside.
Yaz has shockingly become a real player at age 30 and is the best position player scouting/development story of this regime. Solano has become a solid player as well, but will be a free agent after 2021. Dickerson is about the same, but after 2022. Posey may be in his career's swan song with an expiring deal and declining durability/performance while Longoria is inching towards a one-year deal with a small guarantee after 2022. Belt and Crawford are still useful players who could return on short-term deals if replacements haven't arrived yet. Dubon is a good utility guy on a championship team, but is a versatile piece for the Giants right now. Slater, Ruf and Vosler are solid corner bench/platoon bats, Flores another utility type.
There's no real needs per se here, all of the position players are strong and depth isn't an issue, but there are only a couple players clearly above league average, which means the answers are on the prospect list, unless there's a $50-plus million outlay in free agency to go buy one.
The long-term help on the way is headlined by Bart, who will take catcher from Posey at some point in 2021, depending on when the bat looks ready. SS Marco Luciano probably ends up on a corner and it may not be until 2023, but he may be the best pure hitting prospect in the minors behind Wander Franco. Ramos should enter the conversation in the outfield later in 2021. Recent first-round picks CF Hunter Bishop and C Patrick Bailey were chosen from college and may arrive as soon as 2022, but 2023 is a more realistic time for a wave of talent chosen by Zaidi's regime to show up.
All of the answers aren't currently in the organization and they haven't quite flipped the financial switch from building to really competing, so I would expect the Giants to be big players in the mega free-agent class after the 2021 season. The shortstop crop specifically (Francisco Lindor, Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, Javier Baez, Trevor Story) seems to be where the Giants' big outlay would come, but there are plenty of good players set to be available to fill out this roster.