This winter's MLB free-agent market is solid, but more for its depth than top-end talent. With industry revenues down sharply, the broad expectation is that the handful of first-tier talents will be paid about the same as usual, but the majority of players beyond those five or so elite players will get less than they would expect in a typical year.
For this winter, the group of players with a shot at getting $100 million or more guaranteed is headed by catcher J.T. Realmuto, outfielder George Springer, pitcher Trevor Bauer and infielder DJ LeMahieu. You could argue for one or two others getting close, but that's pretty much it. Industry sources think this winter will resemble a few winters ago when the overall market was depressed, with clubs eventually spending in February and March on extensions for younger players within their organizations that they were more familiar with and who were approaching or in their primes.
The next incredible class
Another reason clubs may not overextend themselves this winter is the riches that await next winter. The list of players set to hit free agency after the 2021 season with a good shot at getting at least $100 million guaranteed is longer: shortstops Francisco Lindor, Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, Javier Baez and Trevor Story, third baseman Kris Bryant and first baseman Freddie Freeman.
Not only is that a bigger group, but there's a chance that all of those players will sign for more than anyone gets this winter. The players are disproportionately young (Seager and Correa will be 27 in 2022, Lindor will be 28, Story and Baez will be 29) and pedigreed with strong track records at premium positions (except Freeman at first). Fingers crossed that the country as a whole and the finances of baseball will have bounced back by then, making for a fertile market.
Here are two tables to put this historic group in context. First, the most relevant comps for the 2021-22 free-agent class: the recent megadeals, leaving out a handful that are outliers and thus not as useful for comparison purposes.
This chart is sorted by Opening Day age for the season when the contract started, then by guaranteed money. It includes each player's WAR the season before entering free agency, his career WAR entering free agency and the terms of his new contract, including the average annual value (AAV). Some atypical contracts were left out, including deals that fall in the following categories: signed by an otherworldly talent who is incomparable (Mike Trout); notably above-market at the time of signing (Chris Davis); signed with hedges/opt-outs for medical issues (J.D. Martinez); covered multiple arbitration years (Kyle Seager, Alex Bregman, Giancarlo Stanton); included a designed-to-be-used opt-out (Xander Bogaerts); and an extension after an incredibly below-market first extension (Jose Altuve). It's also worth noting that Nolan Arenado's and Mookie Betts' extensions were signed before their last years of team control, but they cover only free-agent years.
There are a number of things to consider from this table as pertains to the 2021-22 crop. There typically is a bit of a discount built into extensions, as they provide earnings certainty for the player getting a big contract a year before free agency. There are some opt-outs, deferrals and other considerations that aren't captured by the top-line numbers here, most notably Betts' deferrals ($115 million is deferred, bringing the net present value of the deal to just over $300 million) and Arenado's opt-out.
Arenado could join this banner 2021-22 free agent class. After the 2021 season, he can void the remaining five years and $164 million ($32.8M AAV) on his deal. This looks unlikely given the market downturn and a down 2020 performance for Arenado, but that is by no means a certainty. Arenado would be heading into a 2022 campaign when he'll turn 31 a few weeks into the season with numbers (4.4 WAR in last 150 games, 32.2 career WAR) comparable to Freeman, who projects for a contract close to what Arenado would be opting out of.
Now, let's dive in with the top of the 2022 crop with these comps in mind and projections for the contracts they could command:
These are listed in order of projected guaranteed money, including each player's Opening Day age for 2022. Because of the reduced 2020 season, I took the players' last 150 games to simulate their last full season of performance. Keep in mind the career WARs are missing both 2021 and the two-thirds of the 2020 season that never happened, so those figures are artificially depressed for comparison purposes to the previous table.
The projections are intentionally conservative in terms of measuring versus their comps. While industry sources have agreed that the players are listed in the right tiers with the right degrees of separation between the deals, they largely worry that it may take another couple of years for club finances to come all the way back to where they were, which could leave the market for this group a good bit south of what I've projected here.
For example, you could easily argue that Lindor's AAV should top Bryce Harper's and Manny Machado's at more than $30 million over nine years (rather than 10 years, since Lindor is older), but that also assumes a robust top of the market and motivated, competitive bidders, which isn't guaranteed not only because of the revenue issues but the number of other options at shortstop within this class. There's also the labor concern, with the collective bargaining agreement set to expire on Dec. 1, 2021, right when contract talks with these free agents should be hot and heavy. The projected contracts reflect these factors, and after this winter plays out, they all may need to be adjusted down further.
If the 2021-22 market were to resemble last winter, the projected contracts for this top seven would be around $1.271 billion. The record for the richest seven free-agent contracts in one offseason was the $1.189 billion in guarantees for the 2019-20 class (Gerrit Cole, Anthony Rendon, Stephen Strasburg, Zack Wheeler, Josh Donaldson, Madison Bumgarner, Hyun-Jin Ryu). Arenado joining the 2021-22 class would push it into a position where it could set the bar so high it wouldn't be matched for a long time.
Looking forward another year
Projecting future free-agent classes more than a year out is difficult as there's a decent chance of injury, regression or extensions being signed. The much-ballyhooed 2018-19 crop ended up being headlined by megadeals for Harper and Machado, as predicted far in advance, but other than Patrick Corbin (six years, $140M), the rest of the projected nine-figure free-agent deals didn't materialize due to players not opting out of existing deals (David Price, Jason Heyward), opting for shorter deals at a higher AAV (Josh Donaldson, Dallas Keuchel, Yasmani Grandal), signing an extension (Charlie Blackmon), suffering injuries (A.J. Pollock, Garrett Richards) or having varying levels of regression (Andrew McCutchen, Clayton Kershaw, Matt Harvey, Craig Kimbrel, Adam Jones, Zack Britton).
That uncertainty isn't really present for next winter's bunch, as they've all had the option to engage in extension talks, and industry buzz suggests none of them have gotten particularly close or are expected to do so. Going further into future classes is problematic because the odds are much higher that the aforementioned issues chip away at the high-end talent, and if you go more than a few years into the future, the base of standout players hasn't established itself yet.
Strong free-agent classes tend to go in waves, and the 2022-23 crop is dependent on what appear to be likely opt-outs from shortstop Xander Bogaerts (who will have three years, $60 million guaranteed left on his deal, with a plate-appearance vesting option for a fourth year) and right-hander Jacob deGrom (one year, $30.5 million guaranteed, with a club option after that and deferrals on both) to prop up the top first-time-eligible free agents. That list is headlined by shortstop Trea Turner, right fielder Aaron Judge, right fielder Joey Gallo, right-hander Jose Berrios and center fielder Byron Buxton.
The knee-jerk reaction may be to think Judge will set the pace for this class, but Turner quietly had an outstanding 2020 and is 10 months younger than Judge, with more versatility and defensive value. Turner cut his strikeout rate from 20% to 14%, increased his walk rate and also increased his isolated power for the second straight year. Turner is 20th in position player WAR (11.0) from 2018-20 while Judge is 22nd (10.7). Bogaerts is ahead of them both at ninth in WAR during that span and is about five months younger than Judge. DeGrom will be 34 when the 2023 season begins, so he'll get a shorter deal than the others, but he may have the highest AAV of the bunch.
It's also worth wondering if the Yankees will be inclined to give Judge the biggest nine-figure offer given how Brian Cashman runs the club. This winter, Cashman faces decisions on pending free agents LeMahieu, pitchers Masahiro Tanaka, James Paxton and J.A. Happ, and outfielder Brett Gardner, while looking to add starting pitching, all with $40 million or less to spend. The Bombers may be free to spend next winter and add one of the aforementioned big fish, but then a reckoning would come after the 2022 season. Judge, closer Aroldis Chapman and catcher Gary Sanchez (and possibly right-hander Luis Severino due to a club option) would all be set to hit free agency.
During the 2022-23 offseason, the Yankees will have 32-year-old righty Cole with six guaranteed years left on his deal and 33-year-old DH Giancarlo Stanton with five years left on his deal, each averaging more than $30 million per season. Would Cashman want to give a 30-year-old Judge five-plus years at roughly $30 million per on top of those? Those three would eat up almost half of the Yankees' payroll, if we assume they're trying to stay under the current version of the competitive balance tax threshold, which will undoubtedly change in some way in the next CBA.
While we're talking about clubs that could be at a crossroads with major talent, let's also consider the Cubs. Team president Theo Epstein is rumored to be on the way out either this winter or next (when his contract expires) and it may be just in time, as next winter the Cubs have Baez and Bryant headlining the big free-agent class -- and they'll be joined by first baseman Anthony Rizzo and left fielder Kyle Schwarber. With a bottom-third farm system, the Cubs could be in a bind with catcher Willson Contreras (free agent after 2022) and center fielder Ian Happ (free agent after 2023) as the only solid 20-something big league contributors.
If there were a free-agent class that could compete with the 2021-22 group, it would be tough to see it this far in advance, but there is a strong possibility.
The next whopper
The best guess for the next huge free-agent class is 2023-24, and that's because it's so deep with top-end talent that even with normal attrition it could still be an elite group when it hits the market.
The class is headlined by what will be 27-year-old third baseman Rafael Devers and 28-year-old center fielder Cody Bellinger. Joining them are third basemen Matt Chapman (31) and Jose Ramirez (31), first baseman Matt Olson (29) and center fielder Ian Happ (29), along with starting pitchers Jack Flaherty (28), Lucas Giolito (29; prep teammates!), Blake Snell (31), Luis Castillo (31), Shohei Ohtani (29), Tyler Glasnow (30) and post-extension-and-option Aaron Nola (30), along with reliever Josh Hader (29).
I know we mentioned how the 2018-19 crop fell apart a few years before it was set to hit the market, but this post-2023 potential crop has a chance to be an all-timer.
Extension candidates
After the 2024 season, there are a couple of candidates for megadeals in what will then be 26-year-olds Fernando Tatis Jr. and Juan Soto. Other post-2024 free-agent eligibles are righty Shane Bieber (29), shortstop Gleyber Torres (28), righty Walker Buehler (30), righty Mike Soroka (27) and post-extension, 31-year-old third baseman Alex Bregman.
The post-2025 class is just starting to come together, with shortstop Bo Bichette (28), right fielder Kyle Tucker (29), center fielder Trent Grisham (29) and catcher Will Smith (31) at the top. The post-2026 class is one where you can pick from rookies who debuted this year that you like most. I'll go ahead and project that the post-2027 class will be headlined by shortstop Wander Franco and post-extension-and-all-the-options Ozzie Albies (31). Finally, the post-2028 season free-agent class would include a 31-year-old Ronald Acuna Jr., assuming all of his options get picked up.
The previous paragraphs include the players most primed to accept extensions soon, with rumors already beginning to swirl about a Tatis mega-extension. Big-market clubs could opt to extend players preemptively at near-market rates as both sides face some uncertainty. Devers, Bellinger, Torres and Buehler would be the most likely targets for that, though they all had down seasons in 2020.