Since the advent of free agency, owners have fought for compensation in cases in which teams lose a prime player. Think about Gerrit Cole leaving the Astros last winter, and Anthony Rendon departing the Nationals. Over time, fewer and fewer players have been tied to compensation -- draft-pick compensation, under the current iteration -- and it's possible that could go away once and for all in the next Collective Bargaining Agreement.
There will be more free agents than ever this offseason, maybe something in the area of 300 once non-tender decisions are finalized, and between that huge volume of market alternatives and team payroll rollbacks, only six players received qualifying offers (for $18.9 million, this winter), linking them to draft-pick compensation if they decline and sign with another team. This is the fewest under the QO system, as these numbers sent along by Sarah Langs reveal:
2012: 9
2013: 13
2014: 12
2015: 20 (3 accepted)
2016: 10 (2 accepted)
2017: 9
2018: 7 (1 accepted)
2019: 10 (2 accepted)
2020: 6
Evaluators and agents were asked which players should or might accept, and this is feedback on the six players:
J.T. Realmuto: There probably would have been a pretty good chance the Phillies would have worked out a deal with the All-Star catcher in the last days of spring training, but once COVID-19 manifested, the discussions ended because nobody really knew how the shutdown would affect the market. This truth holds: Nobody really knows.
But Realmuto is the safest bet among all the free agents to see offers well beyond the qualifying offer, because he is one of the best defensive catchers, one of the best hitters at his position, and unquestionably the best overall player at his position. The bidding seems to be setting up nicely for him, as well -- if the Phillies want to retain him, they might have to fend off offers from the Mets, perhaps the Blue Jays and others. Teams might raise a question about Realmuto's age -- he'll turn 30 in March -- but the catcher's athleticism will mitigate some of that concern. Realmuto should and will turn down the qualifying offer.
George Springer: Of all the players in baseball, Springer might have lost the most money to the current context within the game. Because the Astros manipulated his service time, he missed free agency last fall, when he might've gotten a deal in the range of $150 million to $200 million, given the feeding frenzy that evolved, and now the market has been downsized by the coronavirus. But Springer is 31 years old, he's an exceptional athlete who can play center field now and will be a good corner outfielder for years to come and he's proven in the postseason. As a UConn product, he'd be a natural target for the Mets and Red Sox, and might well get offers of five or six years as teams look to spread out his salaries. Like Realmuto, he should and will turn down the qualifying offer.
Trevor Bauer: Early in Bauer's career, he stated his intention to agree to a series of one-year deals throughout his career to get the absolute maximum return year to year through his contract. He still has the option to do that. He has already made more than $40 million in his career, and it's not like Bauer will be lacking for sustenance if he chooses to bet on himself with one-year deals, rather than take a big guaranteed deal.
But there are plenty of agents who believe that under the current circumstances, Bauer should have entertained and signed for the biggest pile of guaranteed money he can get, and he has earned some great offers with his exceptional performance in recent years and his durability. His agent says he has rejected the qualifying offer, a no-brainer for him as he should get the biggest number for any pitcher this winter, whether in a multiyear contract or a one-year deal.
DJ LeMahieu: If he were two years younger, the infielder might be right there with Realmuto at the top of the free-agent class, because he checks every box. In this era of historic swing-and-miss, he is an elite contact hitter, coming off a season in which he won the AL batting title and had more extra-base hits (22) than strikeouts. He not only plays multiple positions -- first and second and third base -- but he's pretty good defensively. And LeMahieu has earned the reputation as an extraordinary teammate who can make a difference among peers in how he plays and carries himself, not easy to do in this era of analytics. Teammate Zack Britton tells the story of how LeMahieu walks into the clubhouse and, before he does anything else, he pulls on his cap, his intent clear: He's going to work. Everybody else also needs to go to work. "There's no bulls--- there," said one staffer. "If he feels something needs to be said, he'll say it."
But LeMahieu is 32 and turns 33 in the middle of next season, and that might well mitigate, to some degree, the length of the contract offers he'll get. Nobody is going to dangle a seven-year deal. He'll probably get proposals of four years, however, and his versatility and skill pliability will make him attractive to teams other than the Yankees. He should definitely reject the qualifying offer.
Marcus Stroman: Officials with other teams were completely shocked by the Mets' decision to extend a QO to Stroman, but this might be the first real manifestation of the financial flexibility Steve Cohen will bring to the Mets. Stroman chose to opt out of the 2020 season, meaning when he next takes the mound, he'll be about 18 months removed from his last regular-season start, and a good portion of the scouting community views him as more of a No. 3- to No. 4-type starter -- and these days, there aren't many middle-of-the-rotation guys making $18.9 million. But there apparently will be no penny-pinching under Cohen, and if Stroman accepts the QO -- as many in the industry expect -- he'll be working on a one-year deal, highly motivated to set himself up for a nice payday after the 2021 season. If Stroman rejects the deal, then the Mets could hope he'll sign elsewhere, gleaning them a draft pick.
For Stroman's agent, Brodie Schofield, there is an easy argument to be made to accept the qualifying offer. For 2021, Stroman could make really good money, and then hopefully get back out into the open market under more favorable financial conditions.
Kevin Gausman: He posted a 5.72 ERA in his last full season and has a 4.26 ERA in his career. But the Giants seem to be on much sturdier financial ground than other teams, between the franchise's historically exceptional management of debt and the fact that San Francisco has so many contracts expiring over the next two seasons. Gausman performed well for the Giants in 2020, striking out 79 in 59 2/3 innings and posting a 3.62 ERA, and perhaps the Giants see him as a younger version of Charlie Morton from four years ago -- someone whose potential is now only starting to blossom. Given the salary rollbacks taking shape, it's hard to imagine Gausman getting offers of three or more years for anything close to $18.9 million. Maybe three years at $10 million to $12 million per. Gausman should seriously think about taking the QO, because if he repeats his 2020 success over the 2021 season and baseball finds financial stability in the next 13 months -- through a COVID-19 vaccine and/or a labor agreement -- the right-hander could cash in big after being paid well next summer.