I remember seeing George Springer play his draft year at the University of Connecticut. Touted as a potential first-round pick in 2011, Springer was an intriguing power-speed combo, so I went to New Britain Stadium to see the Huskies take on non-baseball powerhouse Georgetown.
Springer had a hitch in his swing back then, resulting in a back-leg collapse at times, and the soft-tossing kid from Georgetown fed Springer a steady diet of junk to keep him off balance. In his first at-bat, after a couple of swing-and-misses, Springer got hit by a pitch. In his second at-bat, he struck out on a breaking ball, chasing a pitch off the plate.
Then came the third at-bat. New Britain Stadium has a high, 20-foot outfield wall and center field is 400 feet away. It's not easy to hit one out there. Springer connected on what looked like a hard line drive to the center fielder ... except the ball kept going and going until it soared over the fence for a huge home run.
Oh, yeah, I see it.
The Houston Astros selected Springer with the 11th pick in the 2011 draft. He dominated in the minor leagues, including a 37-homer, 45-stolen-base season between Double-A and Triple-A in 2013. He should have been called up that September, but before Kris Bryant and his situation of service time drew greater attention to the practice, the Astros manipulated Springer's service time after he declined to sign a team-friendly, long-term offer and didn't debut until mid-April of 2014. That pushed his free agency back to now, after the 2020 season, so Springer reaches the market a year later and a year older than he otherwise would have, in the middle of a pandemic after a season in which the sport suffered huge economic losses.
He will still get a nice reward, however. Since 2016, he ranks 14th among position players in both Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs WAR. He's entering his age-31 season, but the athleticism is still superb (he has never been a base stealer in the majors, but his top sprint speed still ranked in the 82nd percentile). He didn't struggle at the plate in 2020 like some of his Astros teammates, with Statcast measures that teams will like (his expected numbers based on his quality of contact were better than his actual results). He has defensive flexibility, as he still has the range to play center field and a strong enough arm for right. ESPN insider Kiley McDaniel predicted a four-year, $108 million contract in his free-agent rankings.
That price tag will limit the number of suitors and some teams will be concerned about giving Springer a long-term deal given his age. It's worth pointing out that center field is a young man's position and a team shouldn't sign Springer for four or five years expecting him to be a long-term fix up the middle. Over the 10 seasons from 2010 to 2019, not many 30-somethings play 100 games a season in center:
Age 31: 12 (so an average of 1.2 per season)
Age 32: 6
Age 33: 6
Age 34: 3
Age 35: 0
It is interesting to note that Springer's defensive metrics have actually been better in center field than right during his career with the Astros (he played a lot at both positions), and he has been plus-13 defensive runs saved in center the past two seasons over just 108 games. So maybe he's good enough to be one of those rare guys who can remain in center until he's 33 or 34.
His days in Houston appear numbered, as the Astros will have various issues to address in upcoming years -- including potentially re-signing the younger Carlos Correa after 2021, plus Zack Greinke, Lance McCullers Jr. and Justin Verlander are also all free agents after 2021. Then there's the idea of simply leaving Houston to get away from all the negative vibes of the sign-stealing scandal.
So, let's consider some options on where he might land.
Needs: Right field/designated hitter. White Sox right fielders hit .230/.284/.324 (27th in the majors), while their DHs hit .149.
The White Sox will almost certainly non-tender eternally disappointing Nomar Mazara and save the estimated $5.75 million he would receive in arbitration. They could also non-tender Carlos Rodon (due to make $4.5 million), freeing up even more payroll. The White Sox are some $72 million below the tax threshold with those two -- not that they'll go that high, but they do have room to play with. Importantly, they also have cost certainty down the road, as Tim Anderson, Eloy Jimenez, Yoan Moncada and Luis Robert are all signed through at least 2024 (and Yasmani Grandal through 2023).
Springer is the perfect fit for right field, and while he has spent much of his time with Houston hitting leadoff, he would fit in nicely as the No. 2 hitter behind Anderson, with Grandal, Jose Abreu, Jimenez, Moncada and Robert following to create one of the most imposing lineups in the game. The only minor hitch is that switch-hitters Grandal and Moncada are the only non-righties in that group, so the White Sox could view Springer's Astros teammate Michael Brantley as a better, less expensive fit. Indeed, the White Sox went 14-0 against left-handed starters in 2020, just 21-25 against right-handers. Heck, sign Brantley to DH and fix both holes.
Need: The Nationals declined the option on right fielder Adam Eaton.
Without Anthony Rendon and with youngsters Victor Robles and Carter Kieboom struggling at the plate in 2020, the Nationals dropped from 5.39 runs scored per game (second in the National League) to 4.88 (sixth) -- despite monster seasons from Juan Soto and Trea Turner and the addition of the DH. But it was too much of a two-man offense, so aside from getting Stephen Strasburg healthy in 2021, they need to add at least one big bat.
The Nationals have usually carried a payroll right up to the luxury tax and they are $51 million below that at the moment (and Max Scherzer is a free agent after 2021, which takes $34 million off the payroll if he doesn't return). The Nats have several issues to consider besides right field, however. They need a first baseman, another starting pitcher, a backup catcher, a couple of bullpen arms. They have Starlin Castro and Luis Garcia at second base, but they are reportedly interested in DJ LeMahieu. Still, right field is a glaring hole and Springer could bat in front of or behind Soto.
Need: Blue Jays outfielders were actually very good in 2020, ranking fourth in the majors in wOBA and second in batting average and home runs.
There isn't an obvious fit here as Teoscar Hernandez, Randal Grichuk and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. all had productive seasons. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is locked in at first base and Rowdy Tellez earned a long look at DH after an impressive 35-game performance (.283/.346/.540). The biggest hole is probably third base, where Travis Shaw is a non-tender candidate. You could slide Guerrero back to third base and Tellez to first and use the extra outfielder as a DH, but that would really weaken the defense.
On the other hand, the Blue Jays have money to spend, currently sitting about $35 million below where 2020's pre-pandemic payroll stood. After the playoff appearance in 2020, they would like to make a run at the Rays and Yankees. One thing to keep in mind is the Jays have to be careful about how they evaluate the 2020 performance of their hitters after playing their home games in Buffalo. They hit .276/.345/.478 at home, .239/.309/.412 on the road. Springer would provide more offensive certainty, plus there would be plenty of playing time to go around with the four outfielders, between days off, injuries and games at DH.
Need: The Mets have shuffled through center fielders for several years now, and while Brandon Nimmo, the regular there in 2020, can get on base, he's a better defensive fit in left field.
The Mets have been the most popular rumored landing spot for Springer, and it's understandable why Mets fans want him. It's been a revolving door in center field. Nimmo and Jake Marisnick platooned in 2020. Juan Lagares, Nimmo and Michael Conforto shared duties in 2019. In 2018, it was Austin Jackson, Conforto and Nimmo. In 2017, Lagares and Curtis Granderson. Before that it was primarily Lagares for several years, but he didn't hit consistently and battled injuries. So signing Springer would give the Mets their first regular center fielder who would produce on both sides of the ball since Lagares had a good offensive season in 2014.
As we outlined last week, the money is there and new owner Steve Cohen will spend it on somebody -- but that could be Trevor Bauer or J.T. Realmuto or LeMahieu. Plus, Jackie Bradley Jr. provides a nice, cheaper alternative who would also give them a defensive upgrade.
Need: Phillies center fielders hit .246/.303/.333 (25th in the majors in wOBA).
The Phillies have a lot of moving parts this offseason, starting with holes at catcher and shortstop, as Realmuto and Didi Gregorius are free agents, plus fixing a bullpen that had the highest ERA in major league history.
Still, center field has been an issue the past four seasons. Roman Quinn is not the solution. Adam Haseley is more of a fourth outfielder than a full-time starter. Scott Kingery didn't hit at all in 2020 and his best fit is in a utility role. The offense was good in 2020, ranking fourth in the NL with 5.10 runs per game, but that was with Realmuto and Gregorius. Re-signing Realmuto is the priority, but if he signs elsewhere, the Phillies will need to replace his bat in the lineup.
Need: Center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. is a free agent.
While there is a need here, Springer is hardly enough to fix the Red Sox by himself, and it seems like they still want to work on building depth and improving the farm system before committing to a payroll that would soar over the luxury tax. Then again, given Andrew Benintendi's so-so 2019 performance and lost 2020 season (.103 in 54 plate appearances), Alex Verdugo is the team's only reliable outfielder right now and there are no impact outfield bats in the upper levels of the minors.
Of course, never discount a big-market franchise like the Red Sox from making a big-ticket splash somewhere in free agency, and with Alex Cora back as manager, perhaps that increases the odds that Springer would want to play there. The two were close when Cora was the bench coach with Houston in 2017. The whole "he's from that area so that means he wants to play there" is usually overblown, but Springer's parents do still live in Connecticut and Fenway Park is just 90 minutes from New Britain.
Need: Well, Padres left fielders were just 20th in the majors in wOBA.
Hey, if you want to catch the Dodgers ...
Look, the Padres had a great offense in 2020, finishing behind the Dodgers and Braves in runs per game. They also had some guys -- Eric Hosmer, Wil Myers -- who would be at the top of the list for 2021 regression. Their projected left fielder is Tommy Pham, who missed time with a broken hamate bone and hit just .211 (most of his at-bats came before the injury, however). Pham is due to receive an estimated $8 million in arbitration, so the Padres might consider non-tendering him, but they could sign Springer to play right field (Trent Grisham won a Gold Glove in center) and let Myers and Pham share left field and DH.
How about this lineup:
RF Springer
SS Fernando Tatis Jr.
1B Hosmer
3B Manny Machado
CF Grisham
DH Myers
2B Jake Cronenworth
C Austin Nola
LF Pham
Bring it on, Kershaw.
Needs: Angels right fielders hit .212/.285/.359. Angels left fielders hit .218/.304/.403.
This is a little bit of a reach given that Justin Upton is signed for two more seasons and Jo Adell is viewed as a potential future star in right field. Oh, and some guy named Mike Trout plays center. But if you dissect things a little closer, there is room here for Springer.
First off, Adell needs more time in the minors. He hit .161 with 55 strikeouts and just seven walks in his 2020 debut. He was overmatched. Because of injuries and then the coronavirus, he hasn't played much above Class A, so he could really use a year in Triple-A to improve his approach at the plate (and his defense in right field was shaky as well). Second, Upton hasn't been good since 2018 and he's now 33. You can't count on a comeback from him. Third, Springer is a better center fielder than Trout, not that the Angels are going to move him off center field just yet.
So in 2021, you play Upton in left, Trout in center and Springer in right. If Adell is ready in 2022, he plays left and Upton becomes the fourth outfielder/part-time DH (Shohei Ohtani will still be here, but Albert Pujols is in his final season). No doubt that starting pitching is the priority here, but other than Trevor Bauer, there is no clear fix in free agency. How about a lineup that goes Springer, Trout and Anthony Rendon hitting 1-2-3?
Need: The Cardinals were last in the majors in home runs.
On paper, this looks like a good fit, as the Cardinals haven't had much offense from their outfield the past two seasons. They would like to give Dylan Carlson a chance to take over center field and they still have Dexter Fowler, Harrison Bader and Gold Glove left fielder Tyler O'Neill around. If only you could take the good parts of all those guys and combine them into one player.
The hitch here is the Cardinals are looking to decrease payroll, so bringing on Springer seems unlikely. They will get a lot more flexibility after 2021, when Fowler ($16.5 million), Matt Carpenter ($18.5) and Andrew Miller ($12) come off the books.
Needs: Mariners outfielders hit .221/.306/.366 and were 25th in the majors in home runs.
OK, with a list like this we need one team that nobody thinks has a chance. It might be the Rangers, but maybe Springer wants to get as far away as possible from Houston. Yes, this is admittedly a long shot, but the Mariners have struggled for years with offensive production in the outfield. In 2019, they were 22nd in home runs and 27th in wOBA. Their projected 2021 outfield would feature Kyle Lewis, Mitch Haniger (who missed all of 2020 with injuries and played just 63 games in 2019) and probably Jarred Kelenic at some point. While Kelenic was reportedly very impressive at the team's alternate training site, keep in mind that he has just 21 games above Class A. He might need at least half a season in the minors. Then you also have Julio Rodriguez, one of the top prospects in the game alongside Kelenic, but he has played just 17 games above low A. You keep hearing about a 2022 arrival, but that might be a year too optimistic.
You also keep hearing that Seattle seems to be on a "let's try for 2022" timetable, but they have money to spend, Springer would be a great clubhouse presence for an up-and-coming team and maybe this is the year to bring in a star player for less money than otherwise would be the case. There is nothing wrong with having four outfielders -- just rotate them into the DH spot and all four play every day. An outfield defense with Kelenic, Lewis and Springer would be very good, as all three would be capable of playing center field. Plus, you know GM Jerry Dipoto is itching to do something big.