With a slow free-agency period barely getting started, it seems like a good time to take stock of all 30 clubs before big signings occur. We began with the National League teams the other day, and now we turn our attention to the American League. I'd love to tell you how much each team has to spend and, for that matter, how much each free agent will get and when they'll sign, but this winter has more uncertainty than any other in recent memory.
Take this as a stock check on the organizations in terms of where each stands on the competitive cycle, club leadership, payroll space and flexibility, and paths to contention. I've chosen to list the whole 40-man roster, excepting the fringe types who are over age 25, and I've added with an asterisk some players not on the 40-man roster who might soon be added or become relevant during the 2021 season.
Players are listed with their age on Opening Day 2021 and their 2021 salary or arbitration status. Key: Pre-Arb -- pre-arbitration (less than three years of service); Arb1 (first year of arbitration eligibility); Arb2 (second year of eligibility); Arb3 (third year of eligibility).
Jump to a team:
BAL | BOS | CHW | CLE | DET | HOU | KC | LAA | MIN | NYY | OAK | SEA | TB | TEX | TOR
AL East
Lineup: C Chance Sisco (26; Pre-Arb), 1B Renato Nunez (27; Arb1), 2B Hanser Alberto (28; Arb2), SS Jose Iglesias (31; $3.5M), 3B Rio Ruiz (26; Pre-Arb), LF Ryan Mountcastle (24; Pre-Arb), CF Austin Hays (25; Pre-Arb), RF Anthony Santander (26; Arb1), DH Trey Mancini (29; Arb2)
Bench: C Pedro Severino (27; Arb1), 2B Pat Valaika (28; Pre-Arb), 2B Yolmer Sanchez (28; Arb3), LF DJ Stewart (27; Pre-Arb), CF Cedric Mullins (26; Pre-Arb)
Rotation: LHP John Means (28; Pre-Arb), RHP Alex Cobb (33; $15M), LHP Keegan Akin (26; Pre-Arb), RHP Dean Kremer (25; Pre-Arb), LHP Bruce Zimmermann (26; Pre-Arb)
Bullpen: LHP Tanner Scott (26; Pre-Arb), LHP Paul Fry (28; Pre-Arb), RHP Hunter Harvey (26; Pre-Arb), RHP Dillon Tate (26; Pre-Arb), RHP Cesar Valdez (36; Pre-Arb)
25U 40-man options: 1B Tyler Nevin (23), CF Ryan McKenna (24), *3B Rylan Bannon (24), *RF Yusniel Diaz (24), *LHP Zac Lowther (24), *RHP Mike Baumann (25), *RHP Zach Pop (24), *RHP Isaac Mattson (25)
Biggest issue: Continue developing young players and adding talent via any affordable means
The Orioles are starting to turn the corner in their rebuild, as some of the buy-low castoffs and top prospects are bearing fruit at the big league level. The lineup is half players who are basically league average and half fringe-to-below-average types. Catcher Adley Rutschman is a top-five prospect in the game and is close, but the rest of the position-player help is a few years behind or is more role-player type in likely outcomes.
The infield could use an upgrade and a lefty stick, so depending on the kind of money available, KBO shortstop Ha-Seong Kim makes all kinds of sense. At 25, he fits in the competitive cycle that Baltimore is in. Tommy La Stella would be the high-end veteran option. Kolten Wong, Didi Gregorius, Cesar Hernandez, Jurickson Profar and Brad Miller are the more affordable veteran options of that sort. Adding a buy-low lefty corner power bat, such as Joc Pederson, also could make some sense.
As with most rebuilding clubs, the bullpen isn't very good, and that is an easy area to upgrade with short-term, small-guarantee free-agent deals, potentially swapping the best ones for prospects at the deadline and doing it again next winter. Ideally, two additional starters would make the club more competitive, but the medium-upside arms in their mid-20s who are here are the type Baltimore needs to churn through to see if they have something when it's time to spend more in free agency. The top two pitching prospects in the system are both top-100 types in RHP Grayson Rodriguez and LHP DL Hall, and they both could be factors by the end of 2021, but more likely in 2022.
It's worth noting that general manager Mike Elias has been pretty aggressive in the churn-to-find-good-players strategy, opting for bulk in the Mychal Givens and Dylan Bundy trades, and leading the league in most players on the 40-man roster acquired via waivers with 10. The financial options figure to open up as this next group of young players shows up, as Cobb and Iglesias go off the books after 2021 ($18.5 million combined) and when Chris Davis goes off the books after 2022 ($23 million each year), the only guaranteed money on the ledger right now.
Lineup: C Christian Vazquez (30; $6.2M), 1B Bobby Dalbec (25; Pre-Arb), 2B Christian Arroyo (25; Pre-Arb), SS Xander Bogaerts (28; $20M), 3B Rafael Devers (24; Arb1), LF Michael Chavis (25; Pre-Arb), CF Andrew Benintendi (26; $6.6M), RF Alex Verdugo (24; Pre-Arb), DH J.D. Martinez (33; $19.3M)
Bench: C Kevin Plawecki (30; Arb3), 2B Dustin Pedroia (37; $12.1M), SS C.J. Chatham (26; Pre-Arb), 3B Yairo Munoz (26; Pre-Arb), CF Marcus Wilson (24; Pre-Arb)
Rotation: LHP Eduardo Rodriguez (28; Arb3), RHP Nathan Eovaldi (31; $17M), RHP Nick Pivetta (28; Pre-Arb), RHP Tanner Houck (23; Pre-Arb), RHP Chris Mazza (31; Pre-Arb), LHP Chris Sale (32; $30M)
Bullpen: RHP Matt Barnes (30; Arb3), RHP Ryan Brasier (33; Arb1), LHP Darwinzon Hernandez (24; Pre-Arb), LHP Josh Taylor (28; Pre-Arb), RHP Robert Stock (31; Pre-Arb), RHP Colten Brewer (28; Pre-Arb), RHP Phillips Valdez (29; Pre-Arb), RHP Ryan Weber (30; Pre-Arb), LHP Jeffrey Springs (28; Pre-Arb)
25U 40-man options: C Deivy Grullon (25), *C Connor Wong (24), *2B Jeter Downs (22), SS Jonathan Arauz (22), *3B Hudson Potts (22), *CF Jarren Duran (24), *CF Jeisson Rosario (21), LHP Yoan Aybar (23), *RHP Bryan Mata (21), *RHP Connor Seabold (25), *Jay Groome (22)
Biggest issue: Staying on schedule to be a serious contender in 2022 by signing a slew of hole-filling, one- or two-year deals in free agency to get to 2021 contention
Let's get this out of the way: The Red Sox were bad in 2020.
The good news: Chaim Bloom is the right person to get them out of this, and they get some benefits from a poor 2020. Having the fourth overall pick, higher waiver priority and longer looks at young players, among other things, all help set the stage for the post-Mookie Betts version of this team. Chris Sale will return at some point in 2021, hopefully Eduardo Rodriguez will, as well, and Bloom has a shot to work some magic this winter with Boston's vaunted financial flexibility. In terms of long-term deals, Sale runs through 2024, I expect Bogaerts to opt out after 2022, at which point every other guaranteed deal other than Sale will have expired. 2023 will be the first year when Bloom can truly assert his will, but the BoSox should be competitive in the division before that.
In terms of this winter, I would look for three or four bullpen additions once the top of that market is set (that is, after at least two of Liam Hendriks, Trevor May and Trevor Rosenthal sign), and I would expect it to all be one-year deals with seven-figure guarantees, since there's only a handful of multiyear types on the market. I'd also expect one starter on a major league deal and probably one more with MLB experience on a minor league deal with a bigger guarantee if they make the team. Adding roughly half a dozen quality MLB veterans to the pitching staff should stabilize it at a solid level for the next step (probably happening after the 2021 season) of actually making it good.
For the lineup, adding a left-handed hitting second baseman and a left-handed hitting first base/outfield option, pushing Arroyo and either Chavis or Dalbec to platoon/reserve roles, should complete a push toward contention without making any moves that harm the long-term outlook. The second-base role should be easy to fill, with Tommy La Stella, Ha-Seong Kim, Kolten Wong, Cesar Hernandez, Brad Miller, Jurickson Profar and Didi Gregorius all fitting the description, while DJ LeMahieu probably will cost north of what the Red Sox would like to spend. If Jackie Bradley Jr. returns, slide Benintendi to the corner, and that would fill the second hole, while Robbie Grossman, Brett Gardner, Joc Pederson and a couple of the second-base targets also could fit if Benintendi is deemed a fit in center field.
I understand that Red Sox fans probably aren't excited about a winter of one-year deals with an outlook of 80-something wins and a non-slam dunk playoff team. The farm system, still in the bottom 10, will move into the middle and possibly upper tier by the end of 2021; add 1B Triston Casas and next summer's fourth overall pick to the list of asterisked prospects above and you can see where this is headed. The longer-term focus of Bloom means the 2022 and 2023 seasons (and beyond) have a good shot at being back to typical Boston expectations.
Lineup: C Gary Sanchez (28; Arb2), 1B Luke Voit (30; Arb1), 2B Tyler Wade (26; Pre-Arb), SS Gleyber Torres (24; Arb1), 3B Gio Urshela (29; Arb2), LF Clint Frazier (26; Arb1), CF Aaron Hicks (31; $10.7M), RF Aaron Judge (29; Arb2), DH Giancarlo Stanton (31; $29M)
Bench: C Kyle Higashioka (31; Pre-Arb), 1B Mike Ford (28; Pre-Arb), SS Thairo Estrada (25; Pre-Arb), 3B Miguel Andujar (26; Pre-Arb), LF Mike Tauchman (30; Pre-Arb)
Rotation: RHP Gerrit Cole (30; $36M), LHP Jordan Montgomery (28; Arb2), RHP Deivi Garcia (21; Pre-Arb), RHP Domingo German (28; Pre-Arb), RHP Michael King (25; Pre-Arb), RHP Luis Severino (27; $10.7M)
Bullpen: LHP Aroldis Chapman (33; $16M), LHP Zack Britton (33; $13M), RHP Chad Green (29; Arb2), RHP Adam Ottavino (35; $9M), RHP Jonathan Loaisiga (26; Pre-Arb), RHP Luis Cessa (29; Arb2), RHP Jonathan Holder (27; Arb2)
25U 40-man options: *SS Oswaldo Cabrera (22), *SS Oswald Peraza (20), CF Estevan Florial (23), RHP Clarke Schmidt (25), RHP Nick Nelson (25), RHP Albert Abreu (25), RHP Luis Medina (21), RHP Luis Gil (22), *RHP Alexander Vizcaino (23), *RHP Trevor Stephan (25)
Biggest issue: Can the Yankees afford to bring all of their best free agents back?
The Yankees have a number of (potential or actual) key members from the 2020 team in free agency: DJ LeMahieu, Masahiro Tanaka, James Paxton, J.A. Happ and Brett Gardner. If they're trying to stay under the luxury tax (indications are this is the plan), then they have about $30 million to spend, which wouldn't be enough to bring them all back, and there isn't a clear way to get rid of salary.
I'd imagine the priorities are LeMahieu, then Tanaka, then Gardner. And if there isn't enough money, there are a ton of starting pitchers who should be cheaper than Tanaka to help New York stay under the budget: Jake Odorizzi, Charlie Morton, Mike Minor, Garrett Richards, Taijuan Walker are among the best of the rest. It's also worth noting that there's a wealth of left-handed-hitting second basemen on the market below LeMahieu, which both could lower his ultimate price (I projected his deal at four years, $88 million) or offer alternatives if he goes elsewhere. Those options include Tommy La Stella, Ha-Seong Kim, Jurickson Profar, Brad Miller, Kolten Wong, Cesar Hernandez and Didi Gregorius. If this read is correct and the Bombers end up with cheaper replacements for Tanaka or LeMahieu, there will be legitimate questions about why they picked up Britton's $14 million option when Brad Hand cleared waivers with a $10 million option tied to him.
In the bigger picture, Cole and Stanton are the two long-term megadeals, but after the 2022 season, Judge will be a free agent and will be in line for another huge contract, entering his age-30 season. Paying market rate for Judge might be a bridge too far for the more conservative, risk-minimizing, financial-flexibility-seeking ways of GM Brian Cashman. Obviously, he stepped out of that characterization and took risks on the Cole deal and Stanton trade, but he can do that only so often. It seems unlikely that Cashman will want to pay $30 million or more to three 30-somethings for five-plus years, as he would be spending almost half of his payroll on declining players. The farm system is good and will keep supplying contributors for the league minimum, but many of the best prospects won't arrive until at least 2023, so while the Yankees aren't in a crisis, by any means, there are some tough decisions on the horizon.
Lineup: C Ronaldo Hernandez (23; Pre-Arb), 1B Ji-Man Choi (29; Arb1), 2B Brandon Lowe (26; $2.5M), SS Willy Adames (25; Pre-Arb), 3B Joey Wendle (31; Arb1), LF Randy Arozarena (26; Pre-Arb), CF Kevin Kiermaier (31; $11.6M), RF Manuel Margot (26; Arb2), DH Austin Meadows (25; Pre-Arb)
Bench: 1B Nate Lowe (25; Pre-Arb), 2B Michael Brosseau (27; Pre-Arb), 3B Yandy Diaz (29; Arb1), LF Yoshitomo Tsutsugo (29; $7M), CF Brett Phillips (26; Pre-Arb)
Rotation: LHP Blake Snell (28; $11.1M), RHP Tyler Glasnow (27; Arb2), LHP Ryan Yarbrough (29; Arb1), LHP Josh Fleming (24; Pre-Arb), RHP Brent Honeywell Jr. (26; Pre-Arb)
Bullpen: RHP Peter Fairbanks (27; Pre-Arb), RHP Nick Anderson (30; Pre-Arb), RHP Diego Castillo (27; Pre-Arb), LHP Jose Alvarado (25; Arb1), LHP Cody Reed (28; Pre-Arb), RHP John Curtiss (28; Pre-Arb), RHP Ryan Thompson (28; Pre-Arb), LHP Shane McClanahan (23; Pre-Arb), RHP Aaron Slegers (28; Pre-Arb), LHP Brendan McKay (25; Pre-Arb)
25U 40-man options: 2B Vidal Brujan (23), *2B Tristan Gray (25), *SS Taylor Walls (24), *SS Wander Franco (20), 3B Kevin Padlo (24), *CF Josh Lowe (23), *RHP Joe Ryan (24), RHP Edgar Garcia (24)
Biggest issue: Either replacing or re-signing Charlie Morton and Mike Zunino
The Rays are incredibly deep, both in their top-ranked farm system and on their big league team. Every player who seems like he might be stretched in his role has a platoon partner or only has to pitch once through the lineup as a starter. They're hitting the reset button on the catcher position, so I'd expect two new acquisitions that push Hernandez to Triple-A. Wendle and Diaz form a solid third-base platoon, but that's a spot where both of them could move to part-time roles in deference to an above-average regular. Justin Turner is a free agent who would fit perfectly, but he is probably going back to the Dodgers.
Acquiring Kris Bryant and his roughly $20 million salary in his final arbitration season for some midlevel prospects would be an intriguing and surprisingly realistic deal. There's some buzz the Rays actually have money to spend this offseason, as they suffered the least in terms of lost game-day revenue. Factor in Charlie Morton, Mike Zunino, Chaz Roe and Oliver Drake hitting free agency and some further potential cuts like non-tendering Hunter Renfroe and there's a good bit of money off the books.
I'm not sure the Rays have room to re-sign Morton, sign two catchers and take on Bryant's deal, but that's at least in the realm of possibility. J.T. Realmuto is probably too expensive, and Yadier Molina probably will return to St. Louis, so James McCann looks like the only everyday catching option on the open market, with other options available via trade. There also is a lot of pitching available this winter in both starting and relief roles, and a wide variety of styles. I'd expect the Rays to sign at least one starter for real money -- with Morton the most likely option, at something like $10 million to $12 million on a one-year deal -- and troll the buy-low bin for some split minor league deals.
Since I know you're all wondering, I'd expect Franco to debut in 2021, and he'll get reps all over the diamond to prepare for wherever a spot might open up. There would need to be multiple cold streaks and/or injuries to create enough playing time to justify starting his time-service clock, but it's still hard to keep a talent this dynamic in the minors.
Lineup: C Danny Jansen (26; Pre-Arb), 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (22; Pre-Arb), 2B Cavan Biggio (26; Pre-Arb), SS Bo Bichette (23; Pre-Arb), 3B Travis Shaw (31; Arb3), LF Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (27; $3.1M), CF Randal Grichuk (29; $10.3M), RF Teoscar Hernandez (28; Arb1), DH Rowdy Tellez (26; Pre-Arb)
Bench: C Alejandro Kirk (22; Pre-Arb), C Reese McGuire (26; Pre-Arb), 2B Santiago Espinal (26; Pre-Arb), CF Jonathan Davis (28; Pre-Arb), CF Derek Fisher (27; Pre-Arb)
Rotation: LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu (34; $20M), LHP Robbie Ray (29; $8M), RHP Nate Pearson (24; Pre-Arb), RHP Ross Stripling (31; Arb2), RHP Tanner Roark (34; $12M)
Bullpen: RHP Jordan Romano (27; Pre-Arb), RHP Rafael Dolis (33; $1.5M), RHP Julian Merryweather (29; Pre-Arb), LHP Ryan Borucki (27; Pre-Arb), RHP Thomas Hatch (26; Pre-Arb), LHP Anthony Kay (26; Pre-Arb), RHP Patrick Murphy (25; Pre-Arb), RHP Trent Thornton (27; Pre-Arb), RHP A.J. Cole (29; Arb1)
25U 40-man options: *C Riley Adams (24), RHP T.J. Zeuch (25), RHP Sean Reid-Foley (25), RHP Hector Perez (24), RHP Yennsy Diaz (24), RHP Elvis Luciano (21)
Biggest issue: Adding a power bat to stay in playoff contention until the next wave of prospect reinforcements arrives
The Jays were competitive in 2020 and should be in the mix for the playoffs again in 2021. They have another wave of young talent on the way -- 2B Austin Martin, 3B Jordan Groshans, RHP Simeon Woods-Richardson, RHP Alek Manoah and SS Orelvis Martinez -- that should set them up to compete at the top of the AL.
In the short term, there's buzz that the Jays have a little more cash to spend than most teams, and they've already struck early with Ray's deal, which was slightly above market expectations. There aren't any gaping holes to fill, but if they have another $30 million to spend, my suggestions would be upgrading on Tellez at DH (Nelson Cruz or Michael Brantley); adding a left-handed hitting outfielder (Jackie Bradley Jr., Robbie Grossman, among other possibilities) to compete with their fine but not great, all-right-handed outfield; a fifth starter to upgrade on Roark; and another veteran reliever or two.
AL Central
Lineup: C Yasmani Grandal (32; $18.2M), 1B Jose Abreu (34; $17.6M), 2B Nick Madrigal (24; Pre-Arb), SS Tim Anderson (27; $7.2M), 3B Yoan Moncada (25; $6.8M), LF Adam Engel (29; Arb1), CF Luis Robert (23; $3.5M), RF Nomar Mazara (26; Arb3), DH Eloy Jimenez (24; $4.3M)
Bench: 1B Zack Collins (26; Pre-Arb), 2B Danny Mendick (27; Pre-Arb), SS Leury Garcia (30; $3.5M)
Rotation: RHP Lucas Giolito (26; Arb1), LHP Dallas Keuchel (33; $18M), RHP Dylan Cease (25; Pre-Arb), RHP Dane Dunning (26; Pre-Arb), RHP Michael Kopech (24; Pre-Arb), LHP Carlos Rodon (28; Arb3)
Bullpen: LHP Aaron Bummer (27; $2M), RHP Evan Marshall (30; Arb2), LHP Garrett Crochet (21; Pre-Arb), RHP Codi Heuer (24; Pre-Arb), RHP Matt Foster (26; Pre-Arb), RHP Jimmy Cordero (29; Pre-Arb), RHP Zack Burdi (26; Pre-Arb), LHP Jace Fry (27; Arb1), RHP Reynaldo Lopez (27; Arb1)
25U 40-man options: *1B Andrew Vaughn (23), CF Luis Gonzalez (25), RF Micker Adolfo (24), RF Blake Rutherford (23), RHP Jonathan Stiever (23), LHP Bernardo Flores Jr. (25), *RHP Tyler Johnson (25)
Biggest issue: Should they spend almost all of their available payroll on two corner outfielders? Is George Springer the answer?
There's some stars-and-scrubs energy here, with something like 10 clearly above-average regulars but also some clear holes and four non-tender candidates. Mazara is in line for more than $5 million and Rodon at least $4.5 million in their last years or arbitration before free agency, while Lopez and Fry enter their first years of arbitration and could be signed back on split deals. Mazara seems very likely to be non-tendered, and there's a good chance Rodon will be allowed to leave as well.
Moving forward from that, the main needs are starting left fielder (moving Engel to a more-appropriate role as a fourth outfielder) and right fielder (vacated by Mazara) with lesser needs for small guarantees to acquire a backup catcher (Collins is more of a bench bat and third catcher), one more veteran back-end starter and a low-leverage reliever or two.
In terms of targets, at least one of those outfielders should be left-handed and could even be more of a DH if they think Jimenez is fine in the field. (I don't think he is, but he's still young.) The top of the market is all right-handed: George Springer, likely DH in Marcell Ozuna and stone-cold DH in Nelson Cruz. In terms of lefty bats, you have Jackie Bradley Jr. (wasted a bit in a corner?), Michael Brantley (another likely DH), Robbie Grossman, Joc Pederson, Brett Gardner and some primary infielders who probably could play the outfield if necessary, such as Jurickson Profar and Brad Miller. A potential non-tender such as Eddie Rosario from the Twins also could be an answer.
There's a chance the White Sox are one of the half-dozen most aggressive clubs this winter, and they may have as much as $35 million to address these needs. Springer would eat up most of that money but also is the only clear fit for their biggest need. Brantley or Grossman would eat up most of the rest of the available money, but the other needs could be addressed satisfactorily with minor league deals or guarantees of a few million per player (bring back Tyler Flowers?). With Vaughn lingering as a basically MLB-ready starter and being a fit at only first base or DH, shifting Jimenez to left field and hoping for the best defensively and using that Brantley/Grossman money for other needs is also an option. This is an exciting, talented young team that could put the finishing touches on a perennial contender with a strong winter, maybe the second-most-intriguing team to watch this winter, next to the Mets. (That was a really weird sentence to write.)
Lineup: C Roberto Perez (32; $5.5M), 1B Jake Bauers (25; Pre-Arb), 2B Yu Chang (25; Pre-Arb), SS Francisco Lindor (27; Arb3), 3B Jose Ramirez (28; $9.4M), LF Josh Naylor (23; Pre-Arb), CF Delino DeShields (28; Arb3), RF Tyler Naquin (30; Arb2), DH Franmil Reyes (25; Pre-Arb)
Bench: C Austin Hedges (28; Arb3), SS Owen Miller (24; Pre-Arb), CF Daniel Johnson (25; Pre-Arb), CF Oscar Mercado (26; Pre-Arb), RF Jordan Luplow (27; Pre-Arb)
Rotation: RHP Shane Bieber (25; Pre-Arb), RHP Carlos Carrasco (34; $12M), RHP Zach Plesac (26; Pre-Arb), RHP Aaron Civale (25; Pre-Arb), RHP Triston McKenzie (23; Pre-Arb)
Bullpen: RHP James Karinchak (25; Pre-Arb), RHP Emmanuel Clase (23; Pre-Arb), RHP Phil Maton (27; Arb1), RHP Nick Wittgren (30; Arb2), RHP Cal Quantrill (25; Pre-Arb), RHP Adam Cimber (30; Arb1), RHP Jefry Rodriguez (27; Pre-Arb), LHP Scott Moss (26; Pre-Arb)
25U 40-man options: 1B Bobby Bradley (24), *SS Gabriel Arias (21), *SS Ernie Clement (25), *3B Nolan Jones (22), LHP Logan Allen (23), *RHP Eli Morgan (24), LHP Sam Hentges (24), *RHP Jean Carlos Mejia (24), LHP Kyle Nelson (24)
Biggest issue: Within limited payroll, add some punch to the lineup for the last dance with Lindor
The big story with Cleveland is the last run with Lindor before he almost certainly leaves next winter via free agency, leading what will be a historic group on the open market. The good news is the Indians are squarely in contention once again and led by Lindor, Ramirez, Bieber and Karinchak, they have the star power. Further, the $12 million due to Carrasco in 2022 is the only guaranteed money on the books after 2021, so they have plenty of flexibility and don't have any bad money.
On the other hand, they don't have a ton of money to spend this winter and while they'll have an extra $20 million next winter, that's because they'll lose their best player. The spots to address are second base, center field and any upgrades that can be had for platoons at right field, left field, first base and designated hitter. Second base will be easy to fill, as that market is always a bit depressed and there are numerous everyday options (DJ LeMahieu, Tommy La Stella, Kolten Wong, Ha-Seong Kim, Didi Gregorius, Cesar Hernandez and more). The center field market is pretty limited (Jackie Bradley Jr., maybe Robbie Grossman or George Springer?) and the corner power bat market is somewhere between the two (Springer, Marcell Ozuna, Nelson Cruz, Michael Brantley). Adding the likes of Wong and Grossman would be a sensible, realistic outcome.
Lineup: C Grayson Greiner (28; Pre-Arb), 1B Jeimer Candelario (27; Arb1), 2B Willi Castro (24; Pre-Arb), SS Niko Goodrum (29; Arb1), 3B Isaac Paredes (22; Pre-Arb), LF Christin Stewart (27; Pre-Arb), CF JaCoby Jones (28; Arb2), RF Victor Reyes (26; Pre-Arb), DH Miguel Cabrera (38; $30M)
Bench: C Eric Haase (28; Pre-Arb), SS Sergio Alcantara (24; Pre-Arb), LF Travis Demeritte (26; Pre-Arb)
Rotation: LHP Matthew Boyd (30; Arb3), RHP Spencer Turnbull (28; Pre-Arb), RHP Michael Fulmer (28; Arb3), RHP Casey Mize (24; Pre-Arb), LHP Tarik Skubal (24; Pre-Arb)
Bullpen: LHP Daniel Norris (28; Arb3), LHP Gregory Soto (26; Pre-Arb), RHP Jose Cisnero (32; Arb1), LHP Tyler Alexander (26; Pre-Arb), RHP Joe Jimenez (26; Arb1), RHP Buck Farmer (30; Arb2), RHP Bryan Garcia (26; Pre-Arb), RHP John Schreiber (27; Pre-Arb)
25U 40-man options: C Jake Rogers (25), *1B Spencer Torkelson (21), SS Zack Short (25), CF Daz Cameron (24), CF Derek Hill (25), CF Troy Stokes Jr. (25), *RHP Matt Manning (23), *RHP Alex Lange (25), *RHP Alex Faedo (25), RHP Rony Garcia (23), *LHP Joey Wentz (23), RHP Beau Burrows (24), RHP Anthony Castro (25)
Biggest issue: Add talent to get out of the basement, but without wasting money to block young players with upside
The Tigers' rebuild is going pretty well so far, with much of its hopes hanging on the pitching trio of Mize, Manning and Skubal, and premium position players Torkelson and Riley Greene. That group hasn't really done anything at the big league level, but most of them should settle in during 2021 and all should be in place by the end of 2022. The question is, assuming they're at least solid everyday players and maybe stars, what happens with the rest of the roster? There's a decent group of potential role players and low-end regulars both in the big leagues and in the minors, but how good Detroit is at pro scouting and development of the supporting players will dictate how successful this organization will be under GM Al Avila.
In the short term, this team is still bottom five in terms of present-day talent. There's a fine line between spots that need to be upgraded because there aren't good players and those that don't need to be upgraded because a player who is not very good now might be good later -- and the Tigers are fine with letting that happen. All three outfield spots could be better with a smallish (i.e. $5 million) free-agent-type deal, as could catcher and one of the middle infield spots. There aren't top prospect types in the system at any of these positions, as there are at starting pitcher, but there are diminishing returns in spending $20 million to add four wins to a non-contender while also blocking younger players. There's a chance Boyd could be non-tendered after a tough 2020 coming on the heels of being a hot property at the 2019 trade deadline. Detroit could be a candidate for the classic rebuilding move of spending available payroll space on veteran relievers on short contracts, hoping they perform well and then flipping them for prospects at the trade deadline.
Lineup: C Salvador Perez (30; $14.2M), 1B Ryan O'Hearn (27; Pre-Arb), 2B Nicky Lopez (26; Pre-Arb), SS Adalberto Mondesi (25; Arb1), 3B Maikel Franco (28; Arb3), LF Hunter Dozier (29; Arb1), CF Franchy Cordero (26; Arb1), RF Whit Merrifield (32; $6.7M), DH Jorge Soler (29; Arb3)
Bench: C Cam Gallagher (28; Pre-Arb), 1B Ryan McBroom (29; Pre-Arb), CF Edward Olivares (25; Pre-Arb)
Rotation: LHP Danny Duffy (32; $15.5M), RHP Brad Keller (25; Arb1), RHP Brady Singer (24; Pre-Arb), LHP Kris Bubic (23; Pre-Arb), RHP Jakob Junis (28; Arb1)
Bullpen: RHP Scott Barlow (28; Pre-Arb), RHP Kyle Zimmer (29; Pre-Arb), RHP Jesse Hahn (31; Arb3), RHP Josh Staumont (27; Pre-Arb), RHP Tyler Zuber (25; Pre-Arb)
25U 40-man options: C Meibrys Viloria (24), SS Lucius Fox (23), SS Jeison Guzman (22), *CF Brewer Hicklen (25), *RF Khalil Lee (22), *LHP Daniel Lynch (24), *RHP Jackson Kowar (24), RHP Ronald Bolanos (24), RHP Scott Blewett (24), LHP Gabe Speier (25), LHP Richard Lovelady (25), RHP Carlos Hernandez (24), RHP Carlos Sanabria (24)
Biggest issue: Like Detroit, add some talent around the youngsters without blocking any of the key ones
The Royals' rebuild has focused on pitching in the draft, and they've done a solid job at that and also grabbing guys off the scrap heap and turning them into useful big leaguers. There hasn't been a breakthrough to anything well above league average, but there's another wave of pitching talent coming, so they probably won't need to dip into free agency too heavily to run out decent pitching staffs in the near future.
The lineup has a centerpiece in Mondesi, and while Perez's deal ends after 2021, I'll just assume he keeps coming back until he retires one day. Merrifield is a solid veteran who has some versatility and Soler is another solid vet, but he's also set to hit the market after 2022. Upgrading on the O'Hearn/McBroom first-base platoon is the easiest move in free agency, but most of the other questionable spots have young players who might need another year before we're sure what they are, so a free-agent addition could just block that player. I'd look for a first baseman, some bullpen help and possibly competition for Dozier in left field as the offseason targets.
Lineup: C Mitch Garver (30; Arb1), 1B Miguel Sano (27; $11M), 2B Luis Arraez (24; Pre-Arb), SS Jorge Polanco (27; $4.3M), 3B Josh Donaldson (35; $21M), LF Eddie Rosario (29; Arb3), CF Byron Buxton (27; Arb3), RF Max Kepler (28; $6.5M), DH Alex Kirilloff (23; Pre-Arb)
Bench: C Ryan Jeffers (23; Pre-Arb), C Willians Astudillo (29; Pre-Arb), 2B Travis Blankenhorn (24; Pre-Arb), CF Jake Cave (28; Pre-Arb), DH Brent Rooker (26; Pre-Arb)
Rotation: RHP Kenta Maeda (33; $3.1M), RHP Jose Berrios (26; Arb2), RHP Michael Pineda (32; $10M), RHP Randy Dobnak (26; Pre-Arb), RHP Jhoan Duran (23; Pre-Arb)
Bullpen: LHP Taylor Rogers (30; Arb3), RHP Tyler Duffey (30; Arb2), RHP Cody Stashak (26; Pre-Arb), LHP Caleb Thielbar (34; Pre-Arb), RHP Jorge Alcala (25; Pre-Arb), RHP Matt Wisler (28; Arb2), RHP Fernando Romero (26; Pre-Arb), LHP Lewis Thorpe (25; Pre-Arb), LHP Devin Smeltzer (25; Pre-Arb)
25U 40-man options: *C Ben Rortvedt (23), SS Nick Gordon (25), *SS Royce Lewis (21), CF Gilberto Celestino (22), *RF Trevor Larnach (24), *RHP Jordan Balazovic (22), RHP Edwar Colina (23), RHP Dakota Chalmers (24),
Biggest issue: Do they non-tender Rosario to make room to bring back Nelson Cruz and some pitching help?
Rosario is one of the more high-profile potential non-tenders in the league. He made $7.75 million last year and could make more than $10 million in 2021 before hitting free agency. That's right about what he'd get on the open market, and since he has no more team control, it's conceivable that Minnesota could him go, shift Kirilloff to left field and re-sign Nelson Cruz with those savings. The other offensive need is a utility infielder who can play shortstop.
The Twins are kicking the tires on a couple of pitchers at the moment, and they need to add some talent at the middle tier of their staff (sub-$10 million annual salary) to bump everyone else down a notch into better roles for their talent. Adding Cruz and arms such as Taijuan Walker and Jose Quintana would eat up most of the available payroll, with whatever is left over going to some relief help.
AL West
Lineup: C Martin Maldonado (34; $3.5M), 1B Yuli Gurriel (36; $6.5M), 2B Jose Altuve (30; $29M), SS Carlos Correa (26; Arb3), 3B Alex Bregman (27; $13M), LF Chas McCormick (26; Pre-Arb), CF Myles Straw (26; Pre-Arb), RF Kyle Tucker (24; Pre-Arb), DH Yordan Alvarez (23; Pre-Arb)
Bench: C Garrett Stubbs (27; Pre-Arb), 2B Aledmys Diaz (30; Arb2), SS Jack Mayfield (30; Pre-Arb), 3B Abraham Toro (24; Pre-Arb)
Rotation: RHP Zack Greinke (37; $35.7M), RHP Lance McCullers Jr. (27; Arb3), LHP Framber Valdez (27; Pre-Arb), RHP Jose Urquidy (26; Pre-Arb), RHP Cristian Javier (24; Pre-Arb)
Bullpen: RHP Ryan Pressly (32; $8.7M), RHP Josh James (28; Pre-Arb), RHP Enoli Paredes (25; Pre-Arb), RHP Joe Smith (37; $4M), LHP Cionel Perez (24; Pre-Arb), RHP Austin Pruitt (31; Pre-Arb), RHP Brooks Raley (32; $2M), RHP Andre Scrubb (26; Pre-Arb), LHP Blake Taylor (25; Pre-Arb), RHP Cy Sneed (28; Pre-Arb), LHP Kent Emanuel (28; Pre-Arb)
25U 40-man options: *SS Freudis Nova (21), RHP Bryan Abreu (23), *RHP Forrest Whitley (23), RHP Brandon Bielak (25), RHP Nivaldo Rodriguez (23), *RHP Tyler Ivey (24), RHP Humberto Castellanos (23), RHP Luis Garcia (24), RHP Francis Martes (25)
Biggest issue: Supplement the core with a couple of outfielders and a couple of pitchers for one last dance with this group
This winter, the Astros have George Springer, Michael Brantley, Josh Reddick, Roberto Osuna and a handful of lesser bullpen arms hitting free agency. After 2021, roughly $92 million will be coming off the books as Greinke, McCullers, Verlander and Correa are the core players set to hit free agency. With former GM Jeff Luhnow and manager A.J. Hinch also gone, the makeup of this organization in 2022 will be totally different from the 2019 World Series club.
The short-term needs are a center fielder (or bringing back Springer), a left fielder, another veteran starter and some veteran bullpen help. The Jackie Bradley Jr. rumors make sense as he'll cost roughly 10% of the guaranteed money Springer likely will get; the other free agent options are Robbie Grossman, Brett Gardner and Kevin Pillar. For a corner outfield spot, Brantley could come back, but he and Marcell Ozuna are trending toward full-time DH, and Alvarez already fills that role for Houston. In free agency, the other corner outfield options are more platoon types. The starting pitching market is deep and should move first, with the Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman qualifying offers helping set the market early.
For that 2022 season, only Bregman and Altuve are guaranteed money, so the Astros could spend a bit beyond their means if the market fits them this winter and backload the deals for when their payroll obligations lessen. I would imagine Houston's payroll gets lower for 2021, but there's still a roughly $60 million gap from what it was set to be for 2020, so there's money to spend if GM James Click wants to be creative and take a long-term approach.
The lineup will get some help this winter and will be good in 2021, but the pitching staff, stocked with young arms and fringy types, will dictate how far this team will go next season. If Whitley and Abreu can hit their upside, James gets healthy and a couple of additions and some holdovers beat expectations, then the Astros will be in good shape. If there's limited spending and continued growing pains on the mound, then it'll be a tough finish to this complicated era for the club.
Lineup: C Max Stassi (30; Arb2), 1B Jared Walsh (27; Pre-Arb), 2B Franklin Barreto (25; Pre-Arb), SS David Fletcher (26; Pre-Arb), 3B Anthony Rendon (30; $28M), LF Justin Upton (33; $23M), CF Mike Trout (29; $37.1M), RF Jo Adell (22; Pre-Arb), DH Shohei Ohtani (26; Arb1)
Bench: C Anthony Bemboom (31; Pre-Arb), 1B Albert Pujols (41; $30M), 2B Luis Rengifo (24; Pre-Arb), RF Taylor Ward (27; Pre-Arb)
Rotation: RHP Dylan Bundy (26; Arb3), LHP Andrew Heaney (29; Arb3), LHP Patrick Sandoval (24; Pre-Arb), RHP Griffin Canning (24; Pre-Arb), RHP Jaime Barria (24; Pre-Arb)
Bullpen: RHP Mike Mayers (29; Arb1), RHP Felix Pena (31; Arb1), RHP Matt Andriese (31; Arb3), RHP Ty Buttrey (28; Pre-Arb), RHP Noe Ramirez (31; Arb2), RHP Keynan Middleton (27; Arb2), RHP Hansel Robles (30; Arb3), LHP Jose Quijada (25; Pre-Arb), RHP Gerardo Reyes (27; Pre-Arb)
25U 40-man options: 1B Matt Thaiss (25), 2B Jahmai Jones (23), *CF Brandon Marsh (23), *LHP Reid Detmers (21), LHP Jose Suarez (23), LHP Hector Yan (21), *RHP Chris Rodriguez (22), *RHP Oliver Ortega (24)
Biggest issue: Add a couple of solid bats and a couple of solid arms, hope the youngsters step up and look forward to getting Pujols' $30 million off the books for 2022
The big deals handed out at the direction of owner Arte Moreno have largely been disasters, forcing the club to play near-replacement-level players in Pujols and Upton, who are making a combined $53 million in 2021. Pujols comes off the books after 2021 and Upton's $28 million comes off in 2022, leaving Trout and Rendon as rightfully paid players and the only on the books in 2023.
The pipeline of young talent is about average, with Adell on the big league team, Marsh and Detmers with a shot for 2021 debuts, and CF Jordyn Adams a year or two behind them, all with above-average upside.
The holes to address are upgrades of Walsh at first, Barreto at second, Upton in left, Barria in the rotation and one or two relievers. I wouldn't guess there's enough money to spend $8 million to $12 million AAV on each spot, so it's more likely to be somebody like Kolten Wong, Joc Pederson, Taijuan Walker and Greg Holland.
Lineup: C Sean Murphy (26; Pre-Arb), 1B Matt Olson (27; Arb1), 2B Tony Kemp (29; Arb1), SS Chad Pinder (29; Arb2), 3B Matt Chapman (28; Arb1), LF Mark Canha (32; Arb3), CF Ramon Laureano (26; Pre-Arb), RF Stephen Piscotty (30; $7.5M), DH Khris Davis (33; $16.7M)
Bench: C Jonah Heim (25; Pre-Arb), 3B Sheldon Neuse (26; Pre-Arb), 3B Vimael Machin (27; Pre-Arb), OF Dustin Fowler (26; Pre-Arb)
Rotation: LHP Jesus Luzardo (23; Pre-Arb), RHP Frankie Montas (28; Arb1), LHP Sean Manaea (29; Arb3), LHP A.J. Puk (26; Pre-Arb), RHP Chris Bassitt (32; Arb2)
Bullpen: LHP Jake Diekman (34; $4M), RHP J.B. Wendelken (28; Pre-Arb), RHP Lou Trivino (29; Arb1), RHP Jordan Weems (28; Pre-Arb), RHP Burch Smith (31; Arb1), RHP Daulton Jefferies (25; Pre-Arb), RHP Grant Holmes (25; Pre-Arb), RHP James Kaprielian (27; Pre-Arb)
25U 40-man options: CF Luis Barrera (25), *CF Buddy Reed (25)
Biggest issue: Add a bat or two to cover for free agents Marcus Semien and Robbie Grossman
As evidenced by the above roster, this is a veteran club, and Oakland has an uncanny way of stretching a dollar and find contributors from odd places. The A's are perennial contenders and have a strong core of above-average players, which is why their strength of finding contributors can work.
The spots to upgrade are DH, right field and both middle infield spots. All four have capable players who are probably best suited on a championship team as role players rather than starters, though any one or two of them could surprise. Ha-Seong Kim, Tommy La Stella and Kolten Wong are intriguing options near the top of the middle infield market, assuming Marcus Semien and DJ LeMahieu aren't realistic options. As for lefty-hitting outfield/DH options, Michael Brantley fits pretty well, along with Robbie Grossman and Joc Pederson. Utility man Brad Miller also could fit a number of the potential holes.
The pitching staff looks good once again. I could see adding a veteran starter on a minor league deal with a low seven-figure salary if he makes the team, and at least one middle reliever would help round out the bullpen. There isn't an electrifying young player on the way anytime soon (shortstop Robert Puason just turned 18) from Oakland's bottom-five farm system, but it's bottom five because it does what it's supposed to do: produce big leaguers who stick or are used to improve the big league team through trade.
Lineup: C Luis Torrens (25; Pre-Arb), 1B Evan White (25; $1.3M), 2B Dylan Moore (28; Pre-Arb), SS J.P. Crawford (26; Arb1), 3B Kyle Seager (33; $18.5M), LF Jose Marmolejos (28; Pre-Arb), CF Kyle Lewis (25; Pre-Arb), RF Mitch Haniger (30; Arb2), DH Ty France (26; Pre-Arb)
Bench: C Tom Murphy (30; Arb1), 2B Shed Long Jr. (25; Pre-Arb), 2B Tim Lopes (26; Pre-Arb), CF Phil Ervin (28; Pre-Arb)
Rotation: LHP Marco Gonzales (29; $5.2M), LHP Yusei Kikuchi (29; $16.5M), LHP Justus Sheffield (24; Pre-Arb), RHP Justin Dunn (25; Pre-Arb), LHP Nick Margevicius (24; Pre-Arb)
Bullpen: RHP Kendall Graveman (30; $1.2M), LHP Anthony Misiewicz (26; Pre-Arb), RHP Yohan Ramirez (25; Pre-Arb), RHP Casey Sadler (30; Pre-Arb), RHP Brandon Brennan (29; Pre-Arb), RHP Erik Swanson (27; Pre-Arb), RHP Walker Lockett (26; Pre-Arb)
25U 40-man options: *LF Taylor Trammell (23), CF Jake Fraley (25), LHP Ljay Newsome (24), RHP Joey Gerber (23), RHP Andres Munoz (22), *RHP Sam Delaplane (25), *RHP Wyatt Mills (25), RHP Ian Hamilton (25), LHP Aaron Fletcher (25)
Biggest issue: Add a few short-term solutions while waiting one more year for a wave of prospects to bloom
This rebuild also is going pretty well, with a farm system around 10th in the game and the overwhelming bulk of the value in prospects who should be in the big leagues in 2021 or 2022: RF Julio Rodriguez, RF Jarred Kelenic, RHP Logan Gilbert, Trammell, RHP Emerson Hancock, RHP George Kirby, C Cal Raleigh. Seattle is still in the bottom seven or so in terms of present talent in the big leagues, with probably one more non-contending season before the Mariners flick the switch to contention. Being on that timetable means not signing free agents who will block those key young players when they're ready.
Catcher is an easy spot for the Mariners to add a veteran starter and upgrade the team without keeping another key prospect from playing; maybe Jason Castro or Wilson Ramos? The corner outfield spots have three candidates on the way, but none are ready yet and the DH spot isn't overflowing with strong candidates, so a power-hitting outfielder on a one-year deal also seems like a smart addition. Michael Brantley, Joc Pederson, Robbie Grossman and Jurickson Profar could all make sense. The back of the rotation is weak, but I could see a rationale for not spending any guaranteed money on a veteran with young help on the way. However, the bullpen could probably take a few free-agent additions, so I'd look there for most of the pitching moves.
Lineup: C Jose Trevino (28; Pre-Arb), 1B Ronald Guzman (26; Pre-Arb), 2B Rougned Odor (27; $12.3M), SS Elvis Andrus (32; $14.2M), 3B Isiah Kiner-Falefa (26; Arb1), LF Nick Solak (26; Pre-Arb), CF Leody Taveras (22; Pre-Arb), RF Joey Gallo (27; Arb2), DH Willie Calhoun (26; Pre-Arb)
Bench: C Sam Huff (23; Pre-Arb), CF Danny Santana (30; Arb3)
Rotation: RHP Lance Lynn (33; $9.3M), RHP Kyle Gibson (33; $10M), LHP Kolby Allard (23; Pre-Arb), RHP Kyle Cody (26; Pre-Arb), RHP Jordan Lyles (30; $8M)
Bullpen: RHP Jonathan Hernandez (24; Pre-Arb), LHP Joely Rodriguez (29; $2.5M), RHP Rafael Montero (30; Arb2), RHP Jose Leclerc (27; $4.5M), LHP Taylor Hearn (26; Pre-Arb), LHP Joe Palumbo (26; Pre-Arb), LHP Brett Martin (25; Pre-Arb), RHP Tyler Phillips (23; Pre-Arb), LHP John King (26; Pre-Arb), RHP Art Warren (28; Pre-Arb)
25U 40-man options: SS Anderson Tejeda (22), 3B Sherten Apostel (22), *RHP Yerry Rodriguez (23), RHP DeMarcus Evans (24), LHP Brock Burke (24)
Biggest issue: Trade Lance Lynn and Joey Gallo for fair prices ASAP because this is a disaster with no direction
Teams can be terrible and everyone can be doing a good job. A team like the Orioles under Dan Duquette went for it, the window closed, he was fired, Mike Elias came in and started the rebuild, the big league team has been pretty bad, but he has done a pretty good job overall so far.
The Rangers, on the other hand, are terrible. FanGraphs' depth charts has them in 29th place in current talent level, just ahead of the Rockies. The farm system is in the middle third, mostly due to their not trading prospects and accumulating high draft picks, as there aren't really any players in the system that reasonably project to be much better than league average. They've shed some payroll with the departures of Shin-Soo Choo, Mike Minor and Corey Kluber, getting the Rangers under $100 million, but they're slated to pay $26.5 million for Andrus and Odor, whom Steamer projects to be worth 0.5 WAR in 2021. Two players in the organization, despite down 2020 seasons, have significant trade value -- Gallo and Lynn -- and GM Jon Daniels must trade them soon, because the only other way to boost the talent base is to just keep signing amateur players while the Rangers finish in last place.
If you take out Gallo, the current position player group is projected by FanGraphs to be worth -0.2 WAR. If I tried to lay out a list of position player needs to address in free agency, I'd just list "talent." There's some talent on the pitching side with some innings-eaters and a handful of good relievers who could be flipped at the deadline for more young players.
There have been rumors since the pandemic began that the Rangers are in more financial trouble than the average club due to their new stadium not drawing any fans in the 2020 regular season. As with most clubs, it's unclear how much their payroll will or could be for 2021, and in their competitive situation, perhaps it should be even lower than normal since there's no reason to add a multiyear deal to a post-prime player. Rather, Korean shortstop Ha-Seong Kim and one-year deals to relievers would fit Texas well. The guaranteed money on their books will clear after the 2022 season, which would bottom out their payroll, so there should be some money to spend next winter even with things a little tight this winter, but the Rangers need to collect more assets to make free agency anything more meaningful than a way to get veterans to flip for prospects.