Updated at 7 p.m. ET, Tuesday
I've been on the phone almost nonstop for the past few days after mostly being on and off the phone for the past few weeks. I've noticed that most conversations until about dinnertime Tuesday started with hope, then began fizzling about 10 minutes in when both sides realized nobody knew anything yet. Things started coming together late, but there's still very little settled and big potential for some underslot shenanigans, but maybe a bit less potential for overslot action, as the expectation is some draft-pool dollars will go unspent.
I took this projection to the entirety of the first two of the 2020 MLB draft's five rounds because that's what I do in the final mock; it's more to give you an idea of players I expect to be signable, have passed physicals or who were rising after the rankings locked. And there are a couple of specific picks in the second round I feel pretty good about.
Full coverage of the 2020 MLB draft is available here
Watch the 2020 MLB draft on ESPN & the ESPN App
Wed., June 10: Round 1 starting at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Thu., June 11: Rounds 2-5 starting at 5 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
2020 MLB draft tracker: Live updates of first-round picks, analysis and highlights
Team-by-team draft guide: Fits, needs for all 30 teams
Ranking the top 150 MLB draft prospects
1. Detroit Tigers
Spencer Torkelson, 1B, Arizona State: This one is as close to a lock as anyone can label any of the picks this year. At least 95%, with Asa Lacy representing the small remaining chance.
2020 draft picks: No. 1, No. 38, No. 62, No. 73, No. 102, No. 132
2. Baltimore Orioles
Austin Martin, 2B, Vanderbilt: This one is a spot with much intrigue, but the belief is that Baltimore will go with the consensus best player available. The O's are shopping around, and Nick Gonzales is the leading alternative candidate, with Heston Kjerstad also in the mix. I'd label this one about 75% likely.
2020 draft picks: No. 2, No. 30, No. 39, No. 74, No. 103, No. 133
3. Miami Marlins
Asa Lacy, LHP, Texas A&M: In the event these first two go chalk, this pick is also expected to go chalk. Martin would be the pick if Gonzales or Kjerstad goes second.
2020 draft picks: No. 3, No. 40, No. 61, No. 75, No. 104, No. 134
4. Kansas City Royals
Zac Veen, RF, Spruce Creek HS (Florida), Florida commit: This pick has long been thought to be down to Veen and Gonzales, but was also rumored to involve Hancock and Max Meyer.
2020 draft picks: No. 4, No. 32, No. 41, No. 76, No. 105, No. 135
Get to know potential top-10 MLB draft pick, Minnesota pitcher Max Meyer.
5. Toronto Blue Jays
Max Meyer, RHP, Minnesota: Meyer has long been a favorite here and he'd edged out Veen in this scenario.
2020 draft picks: No. 5, No. 42, No. 77, No. 106, No. 136
6. Seattle Mariners
Emerson Hancock, RHP, Georgia: Seattle has been tied only to college players and will take the one that falls this far in the top six, with Hancock and Gonzales the most likely.
2020 draft picks: No. 6, No. 43, No. 64, No. 78, No. 107, No. 137
7. Pittsburgh Pirates
Nick Gonzales, 2B, New Mexico State: Pittsburgh is also tied to Mick Abel and also Kjerstad, along with whoever falls from Hancock and Gonzales. The Pirates are looking for a college hitter.
2020 draft picks: No. 7, No. 31, No. 44, No. 79, No. 108, No. 138
8. San Diego Padres
Robert Hassell, CF, Independence HS (Tennessee), Vanderbilt commit: San Diego has long been tied to Hassell, and there's some thought the Padres might actually prefer him to Veen, but that isn't clear. Meyer is the other favorite for this pick, if he somehow makes it this far. Reid Detmers, Kjerstad and Nick Bitsko are in the mix, but on the outside looking in.
2020 draft picks: No. 8, No. 34, No. 45, No. 80, No. 109, No. 139
9. Colorado Rockies
Heston Kjerstad, RF, Arkansas: Colorado is hoping for Hancock, Hassell or Veen, but none make it to them in this scenario. They also have a wide mix that includes Kjerstad, Cade Cavalli and others.
2020 draft picks: No. 9, No. 35, No. 46, No. 81, No. 110, No. 140
10. Los Angeles Angels
Ed Howard, SS, Mount Carmel HS (Illinois), Oklahoma commit: There's a wide group in play here as well, with Hassell, Howard, Detmers, Cavalli and Kjerstad the main names, and no prep arm in the mix.
2020 draft picks: No. 10, No. 82, No. 111, No. 141
11. Chicago White Sox
Garrett Crochet, LHP, Tennessee: This one crystallized Tuesday as well; remember the White Sox's path with picking Chris Sale (i.e., quick to the majors in the pen, possibly transitioning into the rotation in 2021)? That could happen here, and Crochet has a similar low-slot slinging, aggressive approach on the mound.
2020 draft picks: No. 11, No. 47, No. 83, No. 112, No. 142
12. Cincinnati Reds
Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF, Harvard Westlake HS (California), Vanderbilt commit: The Reds are looking for someone from the consensus top group to drop into their laps. PCA is probably the pick if Kjerstad isn't here. Abel is in the mix, as is Cavalli and Detmers if he slides.
2020 draft picks: No. 12, No. 48, No. 65, No. 84, No. 113, No. 143
13. San Francisco Giants
Reid Detmers, LHP, Louisville: Justin Foscue and Crochet are also in the mix.
2020 draft picks: No. 13, No. 49, No. 67, No. 68, No. 85, No. 114, No. 144
14. Texas Rangers
Aaron Sabato, 1B, North Carolina: Sabato has all kinds of helium of late, with draft models loving the exit velocities and some evaluators comparing him to Kyle Schwarber. For alternatives, college bats like Foscue and Nick Loftin are getting some run here, and Crochet is also in the mix.
2020 draft picks: No. 14, No. 50, No. 86, No. 115, No. 145
15. Philadelphia Phillies
Cade Cavalli, RHP, Oklahoma: Crochet and Cavalli look like the priorities here and a college lean is expected.
2020 draft picks: No. 15, No. 87, No. 116, No. 146
16. Chicago Cubs
Nick Loftin, SS, Baylor: The Cubs are also leaning college but are more open-minded, though they see some Nico Hoerner in Loftin. Crochet would be the pick if he makes it this far, Bailey could be in the mix here and the Cubs like Jordan Walker, but he probably goes between their picks.
2020 draft picks: No. 16, No. 51, No. 88, No. 117, No. 147
17. Boston Red Sox
Mick Abel, RHP, Jesuit HS (Oregon), Oregon State commit: The Red Sox are casting a wide net and are specifically being aggressive with prep players, more than most other clubs. Abel is the consensus top prep arm, and getting him at 17 is both a coup and also a bad sign for other prep arms. This is the high-water mark for Tanner Witt. Sabato has also drawn interest.
2020 draft picks: No. 17, No. 89, No. 118, No. 148
18. Arizona Diamondbacks
Justin Foscue, 2B, Mississippi State: Bryce Jarvis is a likely underslot option here if the right name doesn't make it this far, but Foscue is believed to be one of the right names for Arizona, which is leaning toward college players pretty heavily at this pick. Sabato is also in the mix if he makes it here.
2020 draft picks: No. 18, No. 33, No. 90, No. 119, No. 149
19. New York Mets
Tyler Soderstrom, C, Turlock HS (California), UCLA commit: PCA is also in the mix at a bunch of picks from Nos. 12 to 19, but this might be his floor if he got this far. Lots of upside college pitching has been tied to going here as well.
2020 draft picks: No. 19, No. 52, No. 69, No. 91, No. 120, No. 150
20. Milwaukee Brewers
Garrett Mitchell, CF, UCLA: Mitchell is a projection model darling, but not a lot of humans are pounding the table for him. He's in the mix at this pick, but there are rumors he might slide out of the first day altogether if he doesn't go here. Dillon Dingler is in the mix, and Clayton Beeter -- possibly the top TrackMan darling of the draft -- is a huge threat to go at this pick.
2020 draft picks: No. 20, No. 53, No. 92, No. 121, No. 151
21. St. Louis Cardinals
Austin Hendrick, RF, West Allegheny HS (Pennsylvania), Mississippi State commit. Hendrick is one of the biggest unknowns in the draft. St. Louis also likes Abel, Cavalli, Foscue and PCA, but none of them make it here in this projection. Hendrick could be a similar upside play to last year's Tre Fletcher pick. If Hendrick gets past this pick and can't find a big number in the compensation picks, he probably just heads to Starkville.
2020 draft picks: No. 21, No. 54, No. 63, No. 70, No. 93, No. 122, No. 152
22. Washington Nationals
Cole Wilcox, RHP, Georgia: Wilcox needs to go soon or he'll return to Athens.
2020 draft picks: No. 22, No. 55, No. 71, No. 94, No. 123, No. 153
23. Cleveland Indians
Patrick Bailey, C, NC State: Cleveland is also in on Dingler, Slade Cecconi and PCA. Sabato and Walker have also been mentioned. Tanner Witt is another threat to go at most of the picks in this range.
2020 draft picks: No. 23, No. 36, No. 56, No. 95, No. 124, No. 154
24. Tampa Bay Rays
Tanner Witt, RHP, Episcopal HS (Texas), Texas commit: Witt is signable on Day 1 and not really after that, but his Carter Stewart starter kit is drawing lots of interest in the back half of the first round. Witt, Tanner and a host of upside types have been tied to Tampa Bay, which probably pairs a signable player with an above-slot player for its two Day 1 picks.
2020 draft picks: No. 24, No. 37, No. 57, No. 96, No. 125, No. 155
25. Atlanta Braves
Bryce Jarvis, RHP, Duke: Bitsko is a threat to go here, but Jarvis has gotten some love and TrackMan favorites Sabato and Beeter have also been mentioned.
2020 draft picks: No. 25, No. 97, No. 126, No. 156
26. Oakland Athletics
Dillon Dingler, C, Ohio State: Dingler should find a home in the 20s, with Oakland a leading spot. The A's were on Loftin in the top 30 before it was cool, but he probably doesn't last this long.
2020 draft picks: No. 26, No. 58, No. 98, No. 127, No. 157
27. Minnesota Twins
Clayton Beeter, RHP, Texas Tech: Minnesota is on a lot of the same players you've heard mentioned the past few picks and could also take Cecconi or Howard.
2020 draft picks: No. 27, No. 59, No. 128, No. 158
28. New York Yankees
Slade Cecconi, RHP, Miami: The Yankees are all over Cecconi and Bobby Miller, so I'd bet one of them is the pick here, but there's also some interest in Beeter and Carson Tucker. There's a small chance they take a shot at Bitsko, but the Braves, Yankees and Dodgers all don't have enough money to be sure they can sign him.
2020 draft picks: No. 28, No. 99, No. 129
29. Los Angeles Dodgers
Carson Tucker, SS, Mountain Pointe HS (Arizona), Texas commit: The Dodgers are open-minded on demographics, but they lean to trusting their player development and going with more of an upside play, all things being equal. Tucker was rising late, just before the shutdown, and probably fits somewhere at the end of Day 1.
2020 draft picks: No. 29, No. 60, No. 66, No. 100, No. 130, No. 159
Note: Astros forfeited first- and second-round picks as part of their penalty for illegally stealing signs.
Competitive Balance Round A
30. Baltimore Orioles: Nick Bitsko, RHP, Central Bucks East HS (Pennsylvania), Virginia commit
31. Pittsburgh Pirates: Chris McMahon, RHP, Miami
32. Kansas City Royals: Bobby Miller, RHP, Louisville
33. Arizona Diamondbacks: Jared Shuster, LHP, Wake Forest
34. San Diego Padres: Logan Allen, LHP, Florida International
35. Colorado Rockies: Carmen Mlodzinski, RHP, South Carolina
36. Cleveland Indians: Jordan Walker, 3B, Decatur HS (Georgia), Duke commit
37. Tampa Bay Rays (received in trade from the Cardinals): Dax Fulton, LHP, Mustang HS (Oklahoma), Oklahoma commit
Second round
38. Detroit Tigers: J.T. Ginn, RHP, Mississippi State
39. Baltimore Orioles: Jordan Westburg, SS, Mississippi State
40. Miami Marlins: Alika Williams, SS, Arizona State
41. Kansas City Royals: Masyn Winn, SS, Kingwood HS (Texas), Arkansas commit
42. Toronto Blue Jays: Austin Wells, C, Arizona
43. Seattle Mariners: Cole Henry, RHP, LSU
44. Pittsburgh Pirates: C.J. Van Eyk, RHP, Florida State
45. San Diego Padres: Carson Montgomery, RHP, Windermere HS (Florida), Florida State commit
46. Colorado Rockies: Beck Way, Northwest Florida JC, LSU commit
47. Chicago White Sox: Jared Kelley, RHP, Refugio HS (Texas), Texas commit
48. Cincinnati Reds: Tommy Mace, RHP, Florida
49. San Francisco Giants: Justin Lange, RHP, Llano HS (Texas), Dallas Baptist commit
50. Texas Rangers: Zach DeLoach, RF, Texas A&M
51. Chicago Cubs: Nick Swiney, LHP, North Carolina State
52. New York Mets: T.K. Roby, RHP, Pine Forest HS (Florida), Troy commit
53. Milwaukee Brewers: Markevian Hence, RHP, Watson Chapel HS (Arkansas), Arkansas commit
54. St. Louis Cardinals: Sam Weatherly, LHP, Clemson
55. Washington Nationals: Burl Carraway, LHP, Dallas Baptist
56. Cleveland Indians: Jared Jones, RHP, La Mirada HS (California), Texas commit
57. Tampa Bay Rays: Drew Romo, C, The Woodlands HS (Texas), LSU commit
58. Oakland Athletics: Nick Garcia, RHP, Chapman
59. Minnesota Twins: Blaze Jordan, 1B, DeSoto Central HS (Mississippi), Mississippi State commit
60. Los Angeles Dodgers: Hudson Haskin, CF, Tulane
Competitive Balance Round B
61. Miami Marlins: Ian Seymour, LHP, Virginia Tech
62. Detroit Tigers: Casey Martin, SS, Arkansas
63. St. Louis Cardinals: Kevin Parada, C, Loyola HS (California), Georgia Tech commit
64. Seattle Mariners: Casey Schmitt, 3B, San Diego State
65. Cincinnati Reds: Jeff Criswell, RHP, Michigan
66. Los Angeles Dodgers: Trevor Hauver, LF, Arizona State
Compensation picks
67. San Francisco Giants: Christian Roa, RHP, Texas A&M
68. San Francisco Giants: Landon Knack, RHP, East Tennessee State
69. New York Mets: Coby Mayo, 3B, Stoneman Douglas HS (Florida), Florida commit
70. St. Louis Cardinals: Trenton Denholm, RHP, UC Irvine
71. Washington Nationals: Kyle Nicolas, RHP, Ball State
72. Houston Astros: Owen Caissie, LF, Notre Dame Catholic HS (Canada), Michigan commit