With the June 10 shortened five-round 2020 MLB draft fast approaching, team preferences and talent tiers are coming into focus, so it made sense to pump some sources and put out another mock draft before we enter the final phase of preparations. I have a solid feel for where the top half-dozen or so picks stand right now, and rather than giving a binary "here's the pick" sort of projection or just naming a bunch of options, the left side of my brain came up with the idea more precise in what I'm hearing from sources (hopefully with some accuracy as well).
For each of the first seven picks, I provide the percentages of who I think could be taken. Other than for the first pick (I'm hearing the Tigers are down to two options), the percentages don't add up to 100 because I'm listing only those who I think have at least a 20% likelihood of being taken. I found that by the eighth pick, preferences become less clear, and there are so many possible scenarios that this approach loses its value.
Watch the 2020 MLB draft on ESPN & the ESPN App
Wed., June 10: Round 1 starting at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Thu., June 11: Rounds 2-5 starting at 5 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Also see:
How the abbreviated 2020 draft impacts this year and beyond
McDaniel: Updated rankings of top 150 available in 2020
First round
1. Detroit Tigers: Spencer Torkelson, 1B, Arizona State
Torkelson: 85%, Asa Lacy: 15%
This one still isn't locked in, but I'm told it's basically down to signability signals, as Torkelson's camp (i.e. Scott Boras) isn't expected to give a hard number. Although Detroit might publicly say that it is considering more than two players, I'm told it's down to Lacy, who fits Detroit's preferences to a T, and Torkelson, the consensus top player in the draft. In the event that the Tigers take Lacy, they would likely target an over-slot prep at No. 38 as a complement to spend the savings.
2. Baltimore Orioles: Austin Martin, 2B, Vanderbilt
Martin: 50%, Nick Gonzales: 40%
In the event that Lacy goes first, it isn't clear if Torkelson would go second, third or fourth. It's hard to believe he would slide to fourth, but it also isn't clear what Baltimore and Miami think of him, especially in light of the big bonus ask that would be a contributing factor to a potential slide. Obviously, a team's ability to meet such a price goes down dramatically as each pick is made (the bonus slot values also fall), so it becomes a game of chicken.
That's obviously an edge case, and this pick is expected once again to come down to a Boras client who is the consensus best talent at the pick (Martin) and a player who fits this team's preferences and will be much cheaper without being seen as a big drop-off in talent (New Mexico State 2B Nick Gonzales). I'll always bet on the most talented player being taken, but Orioles GM Mike Elias was running the Houston Astros' draft when they cut at 1-1 to take Carlos Correa, which helped them net an over-slot Lance McCullers Jr. at a later pick.
Baltimore is also one of a handful of teams lining up with likely savings from its first pick to pluck Oklahoma prep lefty Dax Fulton, who was projected as a mid-first-rounder until he had Tommy John surgery this summer, with its second pick.
3. Miami Marlins: Asa Lacy, LHP, Texas A&M
Lacy: 55%, Martin: 30%
The most likely outcome here is that the top three go in the order I've outlined. The second-most likely outcome is Torkelson-Gonzales-Martin, which has something like a one-in-three chance of happening. The other potential outcomes have likelihoods of less than 10%. The rumor that the Marlins will cut here and take Heston Kjerstad (a ringer for their top pick last year, JJ Bleday) also is unlikely to be true, but it's another intriguing option on the menu. The odds are high that Miami ranks the top three in the order we listed and takes the best one left here.
4. Kansas City Royals: Zac Veen, RF, Spruce Creek High School (Florida), Florida commit
Veen: 50%, Gonzales: 40%
The Royals are in on Gonzales, but my latest intel is that they slightly prefer Veen as their best option after the consensus top three. Like most picks, this one isn't fully decided, and teams are bearing down on key decisions in meetings this week. If any of the top three talents gets through, that would be the pick here; otherwise, it's Veen and then Gonzales for now.
5. Toronto Blue Jays: Max Meyer, RHP, Minnesota
Meyer: 40%, Veen: 30%, Gonzales: 25%
I'm hearing that Toronto also has Veen a hair ahead of a few others as its fourth-best option on the board, possibly even ahead of Martin, but that isn't settled. Of those still available here, Meyer has the edge over Gonzales, and Emerson Hancock lags behind until his medicals come out, likely this week. That info would help allay fears about Hancock missing the end of 2019, skipping the summer and then coming out of the gate slowly in 2020 (more on him below).
6. Seattle Mariners: Nick Gonzales, 2B, New Mexico State
Gonzales: 40%, Meyer: 30%, Hancock: 20%
Seattle is heavily leaning college here and, beyond the top three, is looking at Gonzales, Meyer and Hancock, likely in that order.
7. Pittsburgh Pirates: Heston Kjerstad, RF, Arkansas
Kjerstad: 40%, Bailey: 20%, Hancock: 20%
Pittsburgh is looking mostly at college hitters, leaving Kjerstad and Bailey as the most commonly mentioned names here, but Hancock could get into the mix.
8. San Diego Padres: Robert Hassell, CF, Independence High School (Tennessee), Vanderbilt commit
Hassell has some very strong believers in the industry (including me, as you'll see when my updated rankings come out in a week or so). San Diego is the first spot where he's in play, and he's really in play here, so it would likely be a bit below slot, helping set up a potential overpay at the Padres' next pick. All of the top prep outfielders (Veen, Hassell, Austin Hendrick) have been mentioned here, in that order.
9. Colorado Rockies: Emerson Hancock, RHP, Georgia
Hancock is the player sliding most in this projection, and there's a reason. His TrackMan data is just OK, he's unusual in that he's a righty with a changeup as his out pitch, his 2020 performance was just OK, and most top scouts didn't see him in 2019 because he didn't pitch over the summer or at the SEC tournament. A clean medical could help him rise or could make Colorado feel better about taking him here. Top-notch scouting departments that make sure to bear down on underclassmen to build history have seen Hancock at his peak: He sits mid-90s and mixes a 70-grade changeup and solid average breakers with premium feel.
Luckily for the Rockies, they draft only pitchers who throw sinkers (due to Coors Field), and part of the reason Hancock's TrackMan data is seen as just OK is his sinker's inherent lack of swing-and-miss qualities. For this reason, two collegiate sinkerballers are also tied to Colorado's next pick: South Carolina RHP Carmen Mlodzinski and Miami RHP Chris McMahon. Colorado is also believed to love Hassell and would take him if San Diego passes. Finally, the Rockies are believed to have California prep catcher Tyler Soderstrom in their mix.
10. Los Angeles Angels: Reid Detmers, LHP, Louisville
Angels owner Arte Moreno (estimated net worth $3.3 billion) made an unpopular, selfish and inexplicable move to furlough his entire domestic scouting staff, including all area scouts, on June 1, just nine days before the draft will start. It's an incredibly tough situation for the remaining employees to navigate, and GM Billy Eppler is in the last year of his deal. The industry expectation is for the team to focus on quick-moving college types. Detmers is one of roughly six players in the draft who could contribute to a big league team later this year (joining Torkelson, Martin, Lacy, Meyer, possibly Hancock and possibly Garrett Crochet), and he'd go in the next few picks if he doesn't go here. Cade Cavalli and Meyer have also been tied to this pick.
11. Chicago White Sox: Patrick Bailey, C, North Carolina State
Chicago is looking for college bats, and Bailey fits this pick very well in terms of value and the White Sox's system. It's a common connection in the industry.
12. Cincinnati Reds: Austin Hendrick, RF, West Allegheny High School (Pennsylvania), Mississippi State commit
Cincinnati is believed to be targeting one of the top prep outfielders and gets one of them in this scenario.
13. San Francisco Giants: Tyler Soderstrom, C, Turlock High School (California), UCLA commit
The Giants sound open-minded when it comes to demographics. There's buzz that Soderstrom will go in the middle of the round, and this is one of the rumored landing spots, along with Colorado at No. 9.
14. Texas Rangers: Garrett Crochet, LHP, Tennessee
Crochet's personality draws different takes from clubs, but they all seem to agree that he has a chance to be a Josh Hader type in a relief role, though he has some chance to be a starter as well. Texas is not likely to pluck a prep arm, given its recent track record, so a possible quick mover makes sense. Also keep an eye on Garrett Mitchell or a surprise in Justin Foscue (more on that later).
15. Philadelphia Phillies: Nick Bitsko, RHP, Central Bucks East High School (Pennsylvania), Virginia commit
Bitsko is the hottest name in the industry. He posted a video on Instagram with some Rapsodo data over footage of a bullpen session, but a lot of prep pitchers have done that. What made this notable was that Bitsko reclassified to the 2020 draft class in January and has thrown only one bullpen for scouts since then (his spring season never started). The three innings he threw over two events last summer provide the only track record most teams have with Bitsko. Showing that he's at full strength and has improved since the summer and giving more complete data such as this to clubs would serve to make him an option at most picks in the first round, rather than just an over-slot option after pick 30.
San Diego and Philly are both known to be interested, and Bitsko's style of pitching appeals to a number of teams, including Baltimore and Arizona, which both pick in the compensatory round, so they have plenty of ammo to meet Bitsko's price. There's an argument that Bitsko has the highest ceiling in the draft besides the consensus top three, but there are teams that simply don't have enough information to be comfortable drafting him.
16. Chicago Cubs: Garrett Mitchell, CF, UCLA
Mitchell is a consensus top-10 prospect by draft models, thanks to some very attractive components -- history of high contact rate, 70 speed, 55 raw power -- but he is much lower for many scouts due to some other qualities -- lack of improvement in college, lack of in-game power, choosing not to play in the fall his whole college career, generally playing below his tools since his high school underclass days. His Type 1 diabetes is another complicating factor that doesn't really have a precedent for everyday position players -- Sam Fuld is the most prominent example -- so Mitchell is not in play for some clubs. That full list hasn't come into focus yet, but the assumption is that someone will take him in the middle of the first round. The Cubs have a new voice at the helm of their draft in Dan Kantrovitz (formerly with Oakland and St. Louis), and clubs have noticed them showing more interest in upside types than they did at their top pick in recent years.
17. Boston Red Sox: Mick Abel, RHP, Jesuit High School (Oregon), Oregon State commit
I've heard Boston is kicking the tires on a number of demographics, but I believe the Red Sox are leaning more to upside than quick-moving types. Abel is arguably the top prep pitcher in the draft, and new head of baseball ops Chaim Bloom came from Tampa Bay, where the Rays didn't shy away from the high-risk group that scares off many teams in the first round.
18. Arizona Diamondbacks: Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF, Harvard Westlake High School (California), Vanderbilt commit
The D-backs are another team that seems to have zeroed in on a specific type (contact-first, up-the-middle prep bats) and has gotten solid recent results with that approach (Alek Thomas, Corbin Carroll). Crow-Armstrong fits it to a T. It isn't a coincidence that the other best fit to that type in the first round, Robert Hassell, is Arizona's other heavily rumored target.
For their next pick, the D-backs are rumored to be targeting some upside prep arms, and one in particular, Bitsko, fits their preference (high slot, high spin, fastball/curveball) very well. Bitsko is already off the board in this mock, but he's a real option at this pick or with Arizona's second pick, if he makes it that far. Clayton Beeter is rising and fits Arizona's type well, but he'll likely go between Arizona's two picks.
19. New York Mets: Justin Foscue, 2B, Mississippi State
Foscue is a riser over the past few weeks, as word has trickled out that his type -- high probability, 50 or better hit and game power tool grades, multipositional fit, solid plate discipline -- is ranked higher on many models than people expected. Foscue is not that different from a consensus top-10 type in Kjerstad and has more defensive value, so I'm told that it wouldn't be a surprise if he sneaks into the top half of the round, even without a plus tool on the card. I've heard only college players tied to the Mets so far.
20. Milwaukee Brewers: Dillon Dingler, C, Ohio State
Dingler was a late-rising prospect this spring, and he has a wide range from the middle to the back of the round. Mitchell and Crochet also fit Milwaukee's type here.
21. St. Louis Cardinals: Cade Cavalli, RHP, Oklahoma
The Cards are still casting a wide net here, but their preferred type of pitcher is athletic with arm speed, and Cavalli has the most of both of those traits among the college arms still on the board. Foscue and Soderstrom both have been tied to St. Louis but aren't available in this scenario.
22. Washington Nationals: Cole Wilcox, RHP, Georgia
There is a group of inconsistent college pitchers whom every team is having trouble ranking, and Wilcox appears to be at the top of the bunch. That half-dozen includes Wilcox, Cavalli, Miami righties Slade Cecconi and Chris McMahon, Florida State righty CJ Van Eyk and South Carolina righty Carmen Mlodzinski. They all show the elements of a solid mid-first-round pick, but injuries or inconsistency has pushed them into the range of No. 20 to No. 40 overall. Teams are telling me that Wilcox will go around here, and he fits the Nats' preference of a power arm.
23. Cleveland Indians: Jared Kelley, RHP, Refugio High School (Texas), Texas commit
Kelley has been sliding in recent weeks, as it's becoming clear that teams don't love prep righties, particularly those with "now" stuff and "now" bodies (i.e. little projection, higher stress put on a teenage arm), and don't like righties who rely on changeups over breaking balls (which applies to Hancock as well). Kelley is seen as signable, so he'll likely go on the first day, and he still sits 95-98 with a plus changeup, so there isn't a ton that needs to be changed other than tightening the breaker. Cleveland's model seems to prefer guys with longer track records, so Kelley and (at the team's next pick) J.T. Ginn, with long track records of elite stuff and performance, fit the Indians well.
24. Tampa Bay Rays: Slade Cecconi, RHP, Miami
Clubs think the Rays will pair this selection with their next pick at 37 to take a college player here and try to float a first-round prep talent for an over-slot bonus to their compensatory pick. Ed Howard, Jordan Walker and Justin Lange all fit that type for the second pick, and there's a mess of college pitching that fits that strategy at this choice. Baylor shortstop Nick Loftin also fits the Rays' usual type of middle infielder more than Mississippi State shortstop Jordan Westburg does.
25. Atlanta Braves: Bryce Jarvis, RHP, Duke
The Braves are tied to a handful of players who likely won't get this far, and Jarvis matches well what the industry sees as the new regime's type for high picks: polished, college, under slot, stands out in both scouting and data/performance areas. Look for the Braves to follow last year's blueprint and go college early, then high school later.
26. Oakland Athletics: Nick Loftin, SS, Baylor
Loftin is among a couple of college types tied to the A's. His carrying tools are contact and defense, making him the opposite sort of player from last year's first-round pick, shortstop Logan Davidson.
27. Minnesota Twins: Clayton Beeter, RHP, Texas Tech
Beeter has a short track record of premium stuff and high walk rates, and he has had Tommy John surgery, but teams think his strike-throwing will improve, and his stuff, as measured by data or eyeballs, might be the best in the draft.
28. New York Yankees: Bobby Miller, RHP, Louisville
A handful of college names have been connected to the Yankees -- Miller, Cavalli, Cecconi, Beeter, Dingler -- but only one of them gets to this pick.
29. Los Angeles Dodgers: Jordan Westburg, SS, Mississippi State
I had the Dodgers taking Foscue last time, but now it looks like he won't last to No. 29. His double-play partner, Westburg, has more upside and is bigger and more athletic but also has more trouble with contact. The Dodgers have some of the best hitter development in the game, so they can afford to gamble on the upside here.
Competitive Balance Round A
30. Baltimore Orioles: Dax Fulton, LHP, Mustang High School (Oklahoma), Oklahoma commit
31. Pittsburgh Pirates: Austin Wells, C, Arizona
32. Kansas City Royals: Jordan Walker, 3B, Decatur High School (Georgia), Duke commit
33. Arizona Diamondbacks: Jared Shuster, LHP, Wake Forest
34. San Diego Padres: Justin Lange, RHP, Llano High School (Texas), Dallas Baptist commit
35. Colorado Rockies: Carmen Mlodzinski, RHP, South Carolina
36. Cleveland Indians: J.T. Ginn, RHP, Mississippi State
37. Tampa Bay Rays: Ed Howard, SS, Mount Carmel High School (Illinois), Oklahoma commit