Now that we are within 30 days of the 2020 MLB draft and intel leaking out of pre-draft meetings and conversations with agents has reached a tipping point, it's time for my first stab at projecting the first round. To be clear, this is my attempt at projecting what teams will do on June 10, while my rankings (which will be updated again soon) are the order in which I'd take the players, absent bonus demands.
I have another piece coming that breaks down my full analysis on the changes to the draft, but bonus demands and the general chaos in the industry right now have scouts, executives and agents scrambling to figure out what this will mean on draft day. The short version is that teams seem inclined to play it safe, leaning to known college talents whom they were able to see this spring, last summer and in the 2019 spring, and clubs are also inclined to go for savings in the first round when it isn't clear who the best available prospect is.
High school players are hurt by this because many hadn't even started their spring season, there's little if any spring data for clubs to plug into draft models, they didn't face top-notch competition and their bonus demands probably haven't changed much since the draft rules were changed. Clubs have to pay only $100,000 of any bonus this year, with 50% of what's remaining paid in the summer of 2021 and the rest in the summer of 2022. College players generally don't want to go back to school as a 22-year-old, senior-aged prospect who will have less leverage, take a discount in the 2021 draft and delay free agency another year, while high school players can go to school and come out again in a draft where there aren't deferrals on bonuses, after a couple of years to raise their draft stock.
This means prep players who don't have multiple clubs hot on their trail or a long track record might get their bonus but at a later pick, and others will just get pushed down far enough that the money runs out and they end up going to school. Generally speaking, the first round or two should skew toward underslot picks, college players and those with a long track record or data. I'll reference it at specific picks below, but these types of forces are in play at nearly every pick.
It's still too early to have reliable intel on multiple preferences for every one of these picks, but teams have told me they don't have that yet, either. This is made much more difficult by not being able to scout which teams are at which games, so I'll be relying more heavily on teams telegraphing some interest to advisers, and it's still a bit early for that to be widespread.
Click here for full scouting reports on this year's top 50 draft prospects
First round
1. Detroit Tigers: Spencer Torkelson, 1B, Arizona State
This is the chalk pick in the industry, as Tork has done everything he could do since the day he stepped on campus in Tempe, Arizona, but there's an interesting scenario where he doesn't go No. 1.
Torkelson and Vanderbilt second baseman Austin Martin are the consensus top two prospects in this draft and they're both represented by Scott Boras. I normally don't mention who is advising draftees before the draft because in the past it could affect a player's college eligibility, but the rules have since changed and it's very relevant in this specific instance. Texas A&M left-handed pitcher Asa Lacy is represented by a smaller outfit.
The Tigers have made it known for a while that their top draft tendencies are for SEC performance and power arms. Only Lacy fits that type to a T. Some clubs think he's the second-best talent in the draft, or even a coin flip to be the top prospect. This is a scenario where the price and team tendencies become more important.
In this draft specifically, fewer high school players will sign and thus the team with the most money to spend on its second and third picks holds even more power than usual, with a larger pool of players to choose from, and another group that may be able to ratchet up their demands to get past the first round to where their highest bonus payday could be.
The Tigers' rebuild is going fine so far, but they need bulk impact talent, not just a few more players. If Detroit has Lacy evaluated close to Torkelson -- which isn't clear yet, but it's certainly possible -- there's a compelling case they could save some money for later picks, hold the hammer to choose from all but a few prep prospects and not take much, if any, downgrade in talent at 1-1.
This decision will be influenced heavily by Boras and how he positions Torkelson and Martin. The superagent's past suggests he won't give clubs a specific number but will be shooting for precedent-setting prices for what he believes are precedent-setting talents. That evaluation isn't a universal view in the industry. Torkelson is an excellent prospect, but industry trends are moving away from premium valuations on any first baseman who hasn't already proved it in the big leagues, due to the lack of margin for error in the profile. I've been specifically told that multiple clubs that rely on advanced models effectively move later first-round first-base types down a dozen picks or more from where their scouting reports would slot them just to account for this market/trade value consideration.
Torkelson projects as an above-average hitter with an above-average walk rate and 70-grade, 30-plus homer power. He can be passable in left field, maybe a hair below average defensively, and scouts see him turning into a Pete Alonso type of player, but with a little more athleticism and defensive value. Tork is also generally seen as better than last year's third overall pick and fellow destroyer of the Pac-12, White Sox 1B Andrew Vaughn, a former Cal Bear. Torkelson would fit in the late teens to 20s in my top 100 prospects. I'm hearing all four of my projected top four picks are still in the mix for Detroit.
2. Baltimore Orioles: Austin Martin, 2B, Vanderbilt
Orioles GM Mike Elias comes from Houston, the most progressive team in baseball, and he relies on modeling that tends to value position flexibility and a high floor. These both fit Martin perfectly as a player. He's an above-average runner who likely fits best at second base, but some teams see a chance for a future at center field or third base. He's the best hitter in the draft that may also have the best plate discipline, and he has dominated the SEC. His power plays around average, and some scouts think he's a solid candidate for a Justin Turner-like swing adjustment to unlock more in-game power.
New Mexico State 2B Nick Gonzales is heavily rumored to be the backup option here if the prices on Martin and Torkelson are thought to be too high.
3. Miami Marlins: Asa Lacy, LHP, Texas A&M
The thought here is that Miami just takes whichever of the top three prospects gets to this pick, but there's also some buzz that if the wrong one is here, the Marlins could take a college player projected a half dozen or so picks later for some savings for their later picks. Lacy has big stuff with a mid-90s heater and a slider that are both at least 65-grade pitches, as well as a changeup that has flashed 55-to-60-grade quality at times. The issue is his command, as a result of his somewhat awkward finish to his delivery. Scouts who have followed Lacy since high school swear on his makeup and his performance on the biggest stages, where his command has been at its best.
4. Kansas City Royals: Emerson Hancock, RHP, Georgia
The Royals are in the tough spot of picking fourth in what is generally seen as a three-player draft. Given their traditional scouting, high-upside-seeking reputation, Kansas City has somewhat quietly taken almost only college players early in the past two drafts. Hancock had a slow start to this season, but some thought he'd work his way into that top tier with a strong spring.
5. Toronto Blue Jays: Zac Veen, RF, Spruce Creek HS (FL), Florida commit
The Jays have lots of similarly valued options at this pick, but the strongest buzz is they were enamored with Veen during their multiple early-spring looks while many of their scouts and execs were in Florida for spring training. Minnesota RHP Max Meyer is another leading option here.
6. Seattle Mariners: Nick Gonzales, 2B, New Mexico State
The Mariners are leaning toward a college player pretty heavily here as they're about to turn the corner in their rebuild with their top prospects -- OF Julio Rodriguez, OF Jarred Kelenic and RHP Logan Gilbert -- nearing the big leagues. Gonzales fits their preferences and rumored interest well here, and Meyer again would be a backup option if Gonzales is already gone. Hancock also fits here if he slides a bit.
7. Pittsburgh Pirates: Heston Kjerstad, RF, Arkansas
Pittsburgh has a new regime in place with GM Ben Cherington and assistant GM Steve Sanders coming from Toronto. They didn't have clear preferences or types for the Blue Jays, but the heavy buzz here is "college" and "hitter." Kjerstad and NC State catcher Patrick Bailey make the most sense given what's available in this scenario. Local prep product Austin Hendrick is surely intriguing, but he might not fit the plan.
8. San Diego Padres: Austin Hendrick, RF, West Allegheny HS (PA), Mississippi State commit
The three top prep outfielders (Veen, Hendrick, Robert Hassell) are jumbled a bit, with each club having different preferences but having them all very close. This is the first spot where Hassell has been connected, but Hendrick's electric bat speed and plus raw power fit the Padres' tendencies a little better. San Diego has a track record of saving money on early picks to spend later on upside prep prospects, and I have them doing that again in this projection, nabbing Tommy John-rehabbing prep LHP Dax Fulton with their second pick; he was projected for the middle of the first round before the surgery.
9. Colorado Rockies: Robert Hassell, CF, Independence HS (TN), Vanderbilt commit
Colorado is also tied to Hassell, and he'll likely go in the next few picks if he doesn't go here. It's worth noting that Colorado picks only pitchers who throw sinkers, for obvious reasons, so that narrows their focus a bit on potential targets.
10. Los Angeles Angels: Cade Cavalli, RHP, Oklahoma
The Angels have been chasing upside with most of their recent top picks, and they've been tied to Cavalli, who is right with Lacy for the best raw stuff in the draft. Cavalli is a 6-foot-4 athlete who is also a solid first baseman, he has a clean delivery and two pitches that grade anywhere from 60 to 70 in his mid-90s heater and power curveball. Similar to former Angels first-rounder Sean Newcomb, Cavalli checks all the boxes but doesn't quite have the command you'd expect given the raw ingredients.
11. Chicago White Sox: Reid Detmers, LHP, Louisville
The White Sox are another team leaning heavily toward college options at this pick, though they've leaned that way in recent years for higher picks as well. Kjerstad fits here if he makes it down to this pick. It makes a lot of sense for the White Sox to add the Illinois prep product, who could be big league ready right as the team gets to playoff contention.
12. Cincinnati Reds: Max Meyer, RHP, Minnesota
The Reds have leaned toward high ceilings in recent years and are rumored to want one of the top prep outfielders at this pick, but none of them make it in this scenario. Meyer has shades of Walker Buehler to his game, but he is slight enough that he could be a power relief type.
13. San Francisco Giants: Jared Kelley, RHP, Refugio HS (TX), Texas commit
The prep pitcher group is tightly packed this year, with Kelley, Mick Abel, Nick Bistko and Justin Lange all in the same range of talent for clubs, but Kelley and Abel had a full summer of looks and Kelley pitched a good bit this spring. He was the top prep arm coming out of the summer and has held serve. Both Kelley and Abel should come off the board in the next 10 or so picks, but it's tough right now to peg which clubs are willing to take a prep righty in general, much less in this draft.
14. Texas Rangers: Garrett Crochet, LHP, Tennessee
This is the first spot where rising Ohio State catcher Dillon Dingler could fit, and this is also about the range where buzz begins that teams will take only below-slot options because the separation of talent is a bit muddled. Crochet had a shot to get into the top 10 with a strong spring, but he threw in only one unannounced appearance, where he hit 99 mph in relief with a handful of scouts watching, after starting the season on the shelf with a shoulder/back issue.
15. Philadelphia Phillies: Patrick Bailey, C, NC State
Bailey is the consensus top catcher in the draft and likely doesn't get out of the top 20. Philly has leaned college in early picks under this front-office regime and has a new scouting director this year in Brian Barber, who came over from the Yankees. There's some symmetry to taking J.T. Realmuto's potential long-term replacement as his potential final season with the club (hopefully) begins soon after the draft.
16. Chicago Cubs: Tanner Burns, RHP, Auburn
Burns has the best fastball command in the draft and, along with Detmers, might move the quickest through the low minors. The Cubs need MLB-ready young pitching depth, so Burns fits a need and is a solid value choice with a long national scouting track record dating to his high school underclassman days.
17. Boston Red Sox: Mick Abel, RHP, Jesuit HS (OR), Oregon State commit
The Red Sox are in a down cycle of young talent that has resulted in them being my 27th-ranked farm system. New GM Chaim Bloom is aiming to correct this, and prep pitching is the demographic with the biggest risk/reward.
18. Arizona Diamondbacks: Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF, Harvard Westlake HS (CA), Vanderbilt commit
The D-backs have been linked to both PCA and Hassell, but Hassell is unlikely to get to this pick. Under the Mike Hazen regime, Arizona has leaned toward contact/speed-type hitters (Corbin Carroll, Alek Thomas, Matt McLain, PCA/Hassell) and pitchers with higher arm slots and/or spin rates (Blake Walston, Brennan Malone, Tommy Henry).
Crow-Armstrong won't get to the D-backs' next pick (33rd overall), but prep RHP Nick Bitsko probably will and fits their type as well. Bitsko reclassified to the 2020 class in January, and his spring never got started, so clubs have only a handful of innings from two events in the summer (when he wasn't a priority to scout) and one heavily attended preseason bullpen session in the spring. Multiple clubs have told me they really like Bitsko in the first round but don't have enough information to pull the trigger. The few clubs that do feel good about doing it can afford to wait and try to float him to their second pick for a bonus roughly that of this 18th overall pick.
19. New York Mets: Slade Cecconi, RHP, Miami
Cecconi picked the right time to regain the form of his 2017 summer showcase highs, pitching well for a heavily scouted Miami club this spring. He's set to go in the second half of the first round, and the Mets are trying to stay competitive with Washington, Atlanta and Philadelphia, so quicker-arriving talent is preferred.
20. Milwaukee Brewers: Garrett Mitchell, CF, UCLA
Opinions vary wildly on Mitchell, with some clubs thinking he's a top-10 talent and others saying they wouldn't take him in the first round due both to his on-field performance and demeanor. The Brewers are more in that first camp, and Mitchell probably finds a home in this area of the draft.
21. St. Louis Cardinals: Ed Howard, SS, Mount Carmel HS (IL), Oklahoma commit
Howard is sliding a bit, as clubs are worried about a shoulder issue and how it may affect his throwing and thus his ultimate position. He had momentum in the 10-15 range coming out of the previous summer and has some similarities with last year's second overall pick, Bobby Witt Jr., so like Mitchell he shouldn't fall much further than this.
22. Washington Nationals: Cole Wilcox, RHP, Georgia
Wilcox is an eligible sophomore who hasn't improved that much at Georgia but at various times has hit 100 mph, shown a plus changeup, an above-average slider and the command to be a starter. He generally doesn't do more than two of those in the same outing right now, but those traits are enough to get him into the back half of the first round.
23. Cleveland Indians: Dillon Dingler, C, Ohio State
Dingler got into the first two rounds with a strong fall after not playing last summer and, depending on when scouts saw him this spring, has looked like a high first-round pick and the best catcher in the draft. He'll go in the top 30 picks and fares well in most models (the Indians lean on theirs in evaluations) given the positional value.
24. Tampa Bay Rays: Tyler Soderstrom, C, Turlock HS (CA), UCLA commit
Some clubs have Soderstrom's offensive ability evaluated with the three top prep outfielders, who all went in the top 10 in this projection. He's a fine catcher who has improved behind the plate, but most objections about his defense aren't taking into account a likely automatic strike-calling future by the time he gets to the big leagues. He's also athletic enough to play any corner position. Soderstrom may be the best example of a player that I'll have ranked higher than where he goes in the draft, because the risky prep catcher demographic doesn't apply to him as much as it may appear.
25. Atlanta Braves: Justin Lange, RHP, Llano HS (TX), Dallas Baptist commit
Luckily for Lange, after popping up in the fall and going to the top of the priority list for scouts, his season started early enough to get in enough outings that clubs got him cross-checked and saw him go from sitting in the low-90s with his fastball velocity in the fall to hitting 100 mph regularly this spring and 101 mph in a recent bullpen. His raw ability is as good as Abel's, but the scouting track record is very limited, so picking him is a bit of a leap of faith.
26. Oakland Athletics: Nick Loftin, SS, Baylor
Oakland has been tied to Loftin, another rising prospect who at first isn't overwhelming in terms of tools, but a shortstop with contact, defense and instincts doesn't have to have loud tools to be an every-day player.
27. Minnesota Twins: Jordan Westburg, SS, Mississippi State
The Twins are run by former Indians execs and lean on a similar model. Westburg grades out well with big exit velocities and solid defensive projections, but he has more of a power-over-hit approach that may be able to be ironed out by a top-notch player development group, which Minnesota has. He and Loftin are opposites on the spectrum of college shortstops.
28. New York Yankees: Bobby Miller, RHP, Louisville
Miller was also one of the players who made the biggest gains on draft boards this spring, showing velocity sitting in the 94-98 mph range and hitting 99, mixing in an above-average slider and throwing strikes, though his longer arm action and the quality of those strikes cause some to project him in the bullpen. He and Dingler have both been tied to the Yankees.
29. Los Angeles Dodgers: Justin Foscue, 2B, Mississippi State
All things being equal, draft studies and clubs' desires lean toward picking college position players, the safest of the demographics. That's even more true this year for reasons mentioned earlier. The group of likely every-day college bats with some data/track record are starting to run out at this point, with Foscue and Arizona C/1B/LF Austin Wells among the best of the last few for the Dodgers to choose from here.
Competitive balance round A
30. Baltimore Orioles: Jared Shuster, LHP, Wake Forest
31. Pittsburgh Pirates: Bryce Jarvis, RHP, Duke
32. Kansas City Royals: Austin Wells, C, Arizona
33. Arizona Diamondbacks: Nick Bitsko, RHP, Central Bucks East HS (PA), Virginia commit
34. San Diego Padres: Dax Fulton, LHP, Mustang HS (OK), Oklahoma commit
35. Colorado Rockies: Nick Swiney, LHP, North Carolina State
36. Cleveland Indians: Jordan Walker, 3B, Decatur HS (GA), Duke commit
37. Tampa Bay Rays: Chris McMahon, RHP, Miami