MLB draft rankings: The top 100-plus players available in 2020 and beyond

The rankings below may look like those from any other draft year at this juncture, but most of the conversations I have with scouts are about the logistics and strategic adjustments to this year's Major League Baseball Rule 4 draft due to COVID-19, rather than about which player is better than another. We talked about that, too, and those thoughts are contained below in the comments under the rankings, but this introduction will focus more on the meta elements hovering above the player evaluations.

Right now, the draft is set to start on June 10th and to go five rounds. It can move to as late as July 20th and to as many as 40 rounds, but no one expects it to be bigger than 10 rounds. The expectation from those I spoke with is that no amateur competition of any kind will happen between now and draft day, thus no additional in-game data will be collected. So, the draft will occur with significantly less information, along with significantly fewer players picked and signed.

The five-round length is the biggest adjustment, and it obviously remains to be seen how this will affect strategy, but teams already have some suspicions. The fact that there is a hard cap on any undrafted player of $20,000 means that a whole draft pool has to be spent on drafted players. In the event a team thinks they have a unique and extreme opinion on a high school prospect, and would normally take that player in the 15th or 20th round and sign him for a $500,000 bonus, that team now has to take that player in the top five rounds. So, teams will be incentivized to "play it straight" and draft players much closer to how they like them, rather than moving bonus money around based on the perception of players.

Taking a college senior who is a seventh-round talent in the fourth round for a below-slot $50,000 bonus will save some money, but that has to go to one of a handful of picks, which doesn't allow for much creativity in terms of where and how to use those savings. It's expected that college juniors that hope to go in the fifth round and turn pro will be squeezed, as the draft pool gets very homogeneous at that point. The slot for the last pick of the fifth round is $321,100, with all leftover players stuck with $20,000 or returning/going to school with reduced leverage. Most teams will just find a half dozen players that they like for their last pick and offer them half of slot, if not less, and see who takes it.

Redshirt juniors or seniors who are legitimate top-five-round talents (Duke RHP Bryce Jarvis or East Tennessee State RHP Landon Knack) will get moved up the board for under-slot bonuses so clubs can get a strong value for their pick and lock in savings that will give them the hammer at later picks, when other clubs will be trying to cut under-slot deals to pay for earlier picks.

There's also the ugly rumor that some clubs may not have the cash flow to actually spend all of the draft pool money that they're allotted. There's currently a transaction freeze, but it would likely be lifted before draft day to allow for moves. What if a team has an above-average $10 million draft pool due to a (tradable) competitive pick and their owner tells the GM he can only spend $7 million on this year's draft class?

With the two-year bonus deferment, a high school prospect who will be an eligible sophomore in 2022 now has extra leverage to get a higher bonus in 2022 (with a strong college performance) and collect it all at the same time than if they signed in the 2020 draft. This applies to RF Austin Hendrick, RHP Nate Wohlgemuth, LF Sterlin Thompson, and RHP Ben Hernandez in the Top 102. I chose 102 because that's the amount of picks in the top three rounds; I'll expand this to the full five rounds (161 picks) by the next update.

This figures to mean that in the first few rounds, with all things being equal, college players will be a little easier to sign than high school players, even more than usual. The college juniors, even if they return to school as college seniors for the 2021 draft, will have less leverage as 22-year-olds. The high school players stand to make more money in both real and net present value terms if they merely meet expectations in college. If the fifth round will be full of largely under-slot college juniors and high school players who will be a little harder to sign in general anyway, then even aside from this draft being very deep and college heavy, the 2020 draft should inherently make teams lean even further in this direction.

One other issue to keep an eye on is if college football happens this spring. For a lot of major athletic programs, football pays for all the other sports, so the baseball budget that pays for the 11.7 scholarships could, in 2021, be low enough that some major schools even dip below that already inadequate number. For some seniors to return and not have their scholarship count toward the total is helpful, but the actual money has to be there and it may not in some cases.

For some college juniors, if you get squeezed in the 2020 draft relative to what you think you're worth, it could make sense to use this time to get ahead on schoolwork, graduate earlier and become a graduate transfer. This way, you could choose the best spot for both playing time and development of your skills as a 2021 draft prospect. Colleges already have enough to worry about in terms of budgets, juggling an extra class of returning juniors/seniors and a bigger incoming freshman class, but there may also be a vote soon to allow for one-time penalty-free Division I transfers.

Combining this with grad transfers could make for a free-for-all in terms of movement among college rosters from what was expected pre-pandemic. I'm already hearing rumors that colleges are telling their lower-tier high school senior commits that they won't have a spot next year. Looking at the 2021 and 2022 draft rankings also gives you an idea of which clubs already project to be top heavy with pro prospects in the future (Vanderbilt and Florida, principally).

Lastly, under the assumption that there will be no more in-person scouting of players, scouts have been chattering about which players' stock is helped or hurt the most. The fifth-to-eighth-round college junior is the most obviously hurt by the new signing rules. A large percentage of their potential bonus (but a smaller overall amount for potential first-rounders) will be affected, while, more importantly, the time frame and possible existence of their pro careers will also be affected. Northern prep players whose seasons haven't started yet are obviously hurt. Even with a robust summer track record, clubs like to know exactly what they'll be getting. Not having a minor league season would make that a slightly smaller concern. Along those lines, pitchers recovering from Tommy John surgery (such as prep LHP Dax Fulton) or players who missed the beginning of the spring because of an injury (college CF Parker Chavers) will also be affected less, as the information gap and on-field pro reps missed is lessened.

Summer performers with a strong track record are helped, especially if they play in the South, or are from a college that played early in heavily-scouted games at southern locations. Minnesota RHP Max Meyer, who also stood out over the summer for College Team USA, is a great example, as is Florida prep CF Zac Veen. Players who popped up in the fall/winter who became priority prospects to be seen early in the spring, like Duke RHP Bryce Jarvis, also benefit, as they were seen early and often by top-level evaluators, in many cases before those scouts were able to get first spring looks at other, better-known players.

While MLB has currently banned clubs from taking any scouting video or data from players on or after March 27, that ban very well may be lifted later, in the event there aren't games before the draft. A high school player who has taken a step forward and can send teams video of a bullpen with a radar gun setup behind home plate, or record exit velocities from a batting practice session could take the place of a final pre-draft workout, if not more. Players could still post them on social media for clubs to collect as well. Draft models are prevalent and used by every club; these models crave data, and they crave recent data. Having a top-notch agency representing you that can set these things up, or access to a good local facility could be a smart way for prospects to help clubs feel more at ease with an expensive decision being made on less information than usual.

Lastly, I've included Future Value grades (FV) for each prospect so you can see where he'd rank on a Top 100 or on a team prospect list.

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2020 Top 50 | 2020 Nos. 51-102 | 2021 Top 30 | 2022 Top 20

2020 Rankings

1. Spencer Torkelson, 1B, Arizona State, 55 FV: "Tork" is the safest pick in the draft because he raked from the moment he stepped on campus and in two summers for Team USA with a wood bat. He has edged ahead of Austin Martin in the eyes of the scouts I've spoken with in the past few weeks, but it's close. Torkelson fits best at first base, but he still mashes plenty for any position; he could be an above-average hitter with an above-average walk rate and 30 homers.

2. Austin Martin, 3B, Vanderbilt, 55 FV: There was buzz Martin might begin the season at shortstop for Vanderbilt, but he's still playing mostly third base. He's also well-equipped to be average or above defensively in center field (he's a plus runner) or at second base. Martin's calling card is his plus (or better) contact skills and plate discipline, which help him get to all of his average raw power in games, for 15-20 homers most years. The production is somewhere in the range of Ben Zobrist or Justin Turner, which could be better to some clubs than Tork's production comps of Matt Olson, Rhys Hoskins or Paul Goldschmidt.

3. Nick Gonzales, 2B, New Mexico State, 55 FV: Gonzales plays in one of the most supercharged offensive environments in college baseball, but he also raked on the Cape this summer with wood bats against superior competition. He posted absurd numbers (.488/.610/1.155, 12 homers in 16 games) and has comparable offensive talent to Martin, but with fringy speed and defense at second base that could eventually move him to left field; Keston Hiura is the most common comp thrown out here.

4. Zac Veen, CF, Spruce Creek HS (FL), Florida commit, 50 FV: Veen is a lanky, smooth, 6-foot-4, above-average runner who fits in center field for now and has a chance to be a plus hitter with plus plate discipline and plus power. Christian Yelich looked something like this in high school, too, but Veen is more likely to fill out and move to a corner.

5. Asa Lacy, LHP, Texas A&M, 50 FV: Lacy has edged ahead of Hancock now, but his delivery is a bit stiff and his control and command are just fine. The reason he's the top-rated pitcher is his mid-90s heater and upper-80s slider that are 70-grade pitches on the 20-80 scale for some scouts. His curveball is a solidly above-average pitch, while his changeup is a 55 or 60-grade pitch at its best; being precise with location isn't required when your stuff is that lively.

6. Emerson Hancock, R HP, Georgia, 50 FV: He was on a trajectory to be the best college pitcher in years with a strong spring after a 2019 that ended early due to injury. His stamina wasn't built up for early starts when he didn't meet expectations, but he's still a pure starter who works 93-96 mph fastball velocity to go with a changeup that's sometimes a 70-grade pitch and a 55-grade breaker.

7. Jared Kelley, RHP, Refugio HS (TX), Texas commit, 45+ FV: Prep arm who throws up to 100 mph but is surprisingly under control given that arm speed, and he has a plus changeup that's ahead of his above-average breaking ball.

8. Austin Hendrick, RF, West Allegheny HS (PA), Mississippi State commit, 45 FV: Old for the class (he would be a 2022 draft-eligible sophomore in Starkville), but has been a standout for multiple summers, has 70-grade bat speed and plus raw power. That summer track record could help with a spring season that never got started.

9. Tyler Soderstrom, C, Turlock HS (CA), UCLA commit, 45 FV: He has slowly built momentum from a solid summer to be in the top tier of prep bats; he probably sticks behind the plate, but his plus arm and athleticism will fit at a number of positions. The calling card here is his plus raw power and picturesque swing, while his more model-friendly age gives him an edge over Austin Hendrick.

10. Robert Hassell, CF, Independence HS (TN), Vanderbilt commit, 45 FV: Arguably the best hit tool in the prep class, coming from a lanky, plus-running, plus-throwing center fielder who could grow into power; he reminds some of Braves prospect Drew Waters.

11. Max Meyer, RHP, Minnesota, 45 FV: The righty exploded this spring after a strong summer with Team USA, with some scouts comparing him to Walker Buehler. Meyer hit 100 mph this spring and some scouts grade his spiked slider as a 70 pitch on the 20-80 scale, but he's a slightly built 6-footer.

12. Reid Detmers, LHP, Louisville, 45 FV: A pitchability lefty who has above-average stuff and feel, working in the low-90s along with a plus curveball and above-average changeup.

13. Cade Cavalli, RHP, Oklahoma, 45 FV: One scout described his delivery as "clean as a whistle," and he's an athletic, durable 6-foot-4 righty who works with a 94-98 mph fastball he complements with a 65-grade curveball and starter traits. But the command isn't as good as the delivery and athleticism indicate, akin to Sean Newcomb.

14. Garrett Crochet, LHP, Tennessee, 45 FV: He pitches with a lower slot akin to Madison Bumgarner and missed the beginning of the spring with a shoulder muscle issue, but he came back just before things shut down, hitting 99 mph and mixing in a plus breaker.

15. Heston Kjerstad, RF, Arkansas, 45 FV: Kjerstad has performed well for his entire career at Arkansas and had a strong summer for Team USA. He has plus raw power, average-to-above contact skills and fits in right field.

16. Slade Cecconi, RHP, Miami, 45 FV: The eligible sophomore had a loud summer (94-97, plus slider in shorter stints) before his prep senior year, which was marred by injury. He had one second-round type outing this spring, but has regained his top form, with a number of mid-first-round type outings as well on a highly scouted Hurricanes squad.

17. Nick Bitsko, RHP, Central Bucks East HS (PA), Virginia commit, 45 FV: The 6-foot-4 righty was the top 2021 prep arm until he reclassified to the 2020 class in January. He didn't get to pitch this spring in a game for scouts, but he did pitch at a highly scouted event last summer where he was throwing in the mid-90s and mixed in a plus curveball with spin rates and characteristics that progressive teams love.

18. Garrett Mitchell, CF, UCLA, 45 FV: A famous high school player who turned down money to go to UCLA, he showed flashes his first two years, was off to a good start last summer for Team USA, then had a stress fracture in his shin. He was off to another strong start this spring, with pitch selection the main thing keeping his big tools (above-average raw power, plus speed) from playing in games consistently.

19. Mick Abel, RHP, Jesuit HS (OR), Oregon State commit, 45 FV: This early-emerging prep arm was throwing into the mid-90s years ago and was great early in the summer, just OK later and didn't get to come out yet this spring.

20. Patrick Bailey, C, North Carolina State, 45 FV: The best consensus catcher in the class has above average power, defense and arm strength, but fringy contact skills in an effort to get to his power in games.

21. Ed Howard, SS, Mount Carmel HS (IL), Oklahoma commit, 45 FV: He had a strong summer with above-average tools and athleticism to get into first-round consideration, didn't get much of a chance to build on that this spring.

22. Dillon Dingler, C, Ohio State, 45 FV: He popped up in the fall as a big, athletic backstop who has plus raw power and arm strength from an above-average defensive catcher. His contact came and went in the spring, but scouts who got a good look were raving and some clubs are in even higher than this.

23. Tanner Burns, RHP, Auburn, 45 FV: Famous in high school, he turned down money to go to Auburn, and has performed well in college. He has above-average stuff and some of the best fastball command in the class.

24. Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF, Harvard Westlake HS (CA), Vanderbilt commit, 45 FV: A famous prep hitter who can really hit, run and play center field. The power and overall impact are what's in question; some teams think he should go in the top 20 picks, and others aren't on him in the first round.

25. Carmen Mlodzinski, RHP, South Carolina, 45 FV: He missed almost all of 2019 with a foot injury, then exploded on the scene on the Cape last summer, with fastball velocity sitting in the mid-90s to go with two plus breaking balls.

26. Jordan Westburg, SS, Mississippi State, 45 FV: A big shortstop who has power to profile easily in an everyday role, but contact ability and pitch selection are his question marks.

27. Dylan Crews, RF, Lake Mary HS (FL), LSU commit, 45 FV: Earmarked for the first round years ago as a prep hitter, Crews has bulked up and looks like Tyler O'Neill or Brett Lawrie now. There were rumors for a while that he wants top half of the first round money to turn pro.

28. C.J. Van Eyk, RHP, Florida State, 45 FV: "Talented righty" is how you draw it up -- he flashes three plus pitches in some outings -- but the consistency hasn't been there.

29. Cole Wilcox, RHP, Georgia, 45 FV: A first-round talent in the 2018 prep class who hasn't progressed much in college; he's still throwing up to 100 mph to go with an above-average slider and changeup. As an eligible sophomore, it's believed he'd only sign for bonus consistent with the top half of the first round.

30. Justin Lange, RHP, Llano HS (TX), Dallas Baptist commit, 45 FV: The biggest popup prep arm in the country hit 100 mph this spring, but he would also show more of a pitchability look when throwing in the low-90s to go with above-average secondary pitches.

31. J.T. Ginn, RHP, Mississippi State, 45 FV: The former Dodgers first-rounder had Tommy John surgery this spring after his stuff declined late in 2019. At his best, his fastball sits in the mid-90s with high spin, to which he adds a plus breaking ball and plus athleticism, though his delivery concerns some teams.

32. Chris McMahon, RHP, Miami, 40+ FV: He had a knee injury in 2018 and a shoulder injury in 2019, but he came out late in spring 2019 and in the summer for Team USA showing above-average stuff and starter traits.

33. Blaze Jordan, 1B, DeSoto Central HS (MS), Mississippi State commit, 45 FV: An internet-famous and draft model-friendly player, he ranks as the youngest hitter in the class with a long summer track record and strong exit velocity. More traditional evaluations are concerned about projecting a right/right (bats/throws) maxed-out prep first baseman.

34. Justin Foscue, 2B, Mississippi State, 45 FV: He's half of the best college middle infield combo in the country can hit, has above average raw power, has produced and can play third if needed.

35. Jared Jones, RHP, La Mirada HS (CA), 45 FV: Medium-framed righty who throws up to 100 mph to go with a plus breaker and good athleticism; the strong arm speed with that frame at such a young age scares some teams long term.

36. Jared Shuster, LHP, Wake Forest, 45 FV: A lefty who stood out on the Cape, he has a slightly better chance to start than Nick Swiney (see below), a similarly plus changeup and an above-average breaker.

37. Nick Swiney, LHP, North Carolina State, 45 FV: This lefty took a step forward this spring, throwing a low-90s heater, plus changeup and improved breaker.

38. Carson Montgomery, RHP, West Orange HS (FL), Florida State commit, 45 FV: A big name when he was throwing into the mid-90s a couple years ago, he took a step forward this spring with a mid-90s heater headlining three above-average pitches and the feel to start.

39. Dax Fulton, LHP, Mustang HS (OK), Oklahoma commit, 45 FV: He looked like a mid-first-rounder this summer before Tommy John surgery; the big lefty was throwing into the mid-90s along with a plus breaking ball and starter traits.

40. Casey Martin, SS, Arkansas, 45 FV: This 80-grade runner can play shortstop and has average raw power, but his swing and overall contact ability have long been concerns.

41. Nick Loftin, SS, Baylor, 45 FV: Loftin is a glove-over-offense shortstop who can hit but doesn't have much power; there are rumors that he could sneak into the late-20s as a high probability quick-mover with a feel for the bat head.

42. Bryce Jarvis, RHP, Duke, 45 FV: He was draft-eligible last year as a redshirt sophomore but took a huge step forward this summer; he added arm speed, now throwing into the mid-90s as well as an improved breaker, but the same plus changeup and starter traits he had last year. He's 22 years old, so he's a target to get overdrafted for an under-slot bonus.

43. Clayton Beeter, RHP, Texas Tech, 45 FV: The biggest popup guy this spring has a very short track record of starting and a Tommy John surgery in the rear-view mirror, but he throws an upper-90s heater and an easy plus hook, and he provided some outstanding looks in the abbreviated spring.

44. Jordan Walker, 3B, Decatur HS (GA), Duke commit, 40+ FV: Walker has huge raw power and is a famous name with some track record on the summer circuit, but his lateral quickness and breaking ball recognition were just okay early this spring.

45. Burl Carraway, LHP, Dallas Baptist, 40+ FV: The only slam-dunk reliever in the top 50 picks is a 6-footer with the mentality and approach to fit and loud stuff, throwing up to 99 mph to go with an easy-plus curveball.

46. Christian Roa, RHP, Texas A&M, 40+ FV: A power arm who took a big step forward this spring, mixing in a plus changeup, solid/average breaker and starter traits to go with the mid-90s velocity.

47. Tanner Witt, RHP/3B, Episcopal HS (TX), Texas commit, 40+ FV: The son of the Marlins' minor league hitting coach has taken a big step forward on the mound this spring, throwing into the mid-90s to go with a plus hook that has a high spin rate.

48. Aaron Sabato, 1B, North Carolina, 40+ FV: He has some markers similar to Pete Alonso at the same stage -- plus-plus raw power but pitch selection and contact are fringy.

49. Freddy Zamora, SS, Miami, 40+ FV: He tore his ACL just before the season but looked like a late first-rounder at that point.

50. Tommy Mace, RHP, Florida, 40+ FV: Mace was a projection arm in high school that made a jump early in college. Some scouts complained before the season that his heater was too hittable, but he was up to 97 mph against Miami and has a plus slider and the feel to start.

51. Petey Halpin, CF, St, Francis HS (CA), Texas commit, 40+ FV
52. Alika Williams, SS, Arizona State, 40+ FV
53. Austin Wells, 1B, Arizona, 40+ FV
54. Logan Allen, LHP, Florida International, 40+ FV
55. Seth Lonsway, LHP, Ohio State, 40 FV
56. Drew Romo, C, The Woodlands HS (TX), LSU commit, 40 FV
57. Cayden Wallace, 3B, Greenbrier HS (AR), Arkansas commit, 40 FV
58. Alex Santos, RHP, Mount St. Michael HS (NY), Maryland commit, 40 FV
59. Zach DeLoach, CF, Texas A&M, 40 FV
60. Bobby Miller, RHP, Louisville, 40 FV
61. Cam Brown, RHP, Flower Mound HS (TX), TCU commit, 40 FV
62. Anthony Servideo, SS, Ole Miss, 40 FV
63. Jace Bohrofen, RF, Westmoore HS (OK), Oklahoma commit, 40+ FV
64. Cade Horton, RHP/SS, Norman HS (OK), Oklahoma commit, 40 FV
65. Cole Henry, RHP, LSU, 40 FV
66. Kyle Nicolas, RHP, Ball State, 40 FV
67. Christian Chamberlain, LHP, Oregon State, 40 FV
68. Sam Weatherly, LHP, Clemson, 40 FV
69. Kevin Parada, C, Loyola HS (CA), Georgia Tech commit, 40 FV
70. Hunter Barnhart, RHP, St. Joseph HS (CA), Arizona State commit, 40 FV
71. Masyn Winn, RHP/SS, Kingwood HS (TX), Arkansas commit, 40 FV
72. Daniel Cabrera, LF, LSU, 40 FV
73. Tyler Gentry, RF, Alabama, 40 FV
74. Sterlin Thompson, LF, North Marion HS (FL), Florida commit, 40 FV
75. Enrique Bradfield Jr., CF, American Heritage HS (FL), Vanderbilt commit, 40 FV
76. Corey Collins, C, North Gwinnett HS (GA), Georgia commit, 40 FV
77. Joe Boyle, RHP, Notre Dame, 40 FV
78. Zach McCambley, RHP, Coastal Carolina, 40 FV
79. Hudson Haskin, CF, Tulane, 40 FV
80. Beck Way, RHP, Northwest Florida JC (FL), LSU commit, 40 FV
81. Alerick Soularie, LF, Tennessee, 40 FV
82. Nate Wohlgemuth, RHP, Owasso HS (OK), Arkansas commit, 40 FV
83. Coby Mayo, 3B, Stoneman Douglas HS (FL), Florida commit, 40 FV
84. Parker Chavers, CF, Coastal Carolina, 40 FV
85. Landon Knack, RHP, East Tennessee State, 40 FV
86. Ben Hernandez, RHP, De La Salle HS (IL), Illinois-Chicago commit, 40 FV
87. R.J. Dabovich, RHP, Arizona State, 40 FV
88. Trevor Hauver, LF, Arizona State, 40 FV
89. Ryan Hagenow, RHP, Farragut HS (TN), Kentucky commit, 40 FV
90. Chase Davis, RF, Franklin HS (CA), Arizona commit, 40 FV
91. Kyle Harrison, LHP, De La Salle HS (CA), UCLA commit, 40 FV
92. Yohandy Morales, 3B, Braddock HS (FL), Miami commit, 40 FV
93. Hayden Cantrelle, 2B, Louisiana, 40 FV
94. Carson Tucker, SS, Mountain Pointe HS (AZ), Texas commit, 40 FV
95. Colby Halter, SS, Bishop Kenny HS (FL), Florida commit, 40 FV
96. Hugh Fisher, LHP, Vanderbilt, 40 FV
97. Kyle Teel, C, Mahwah HS (NJ), Virginia commit, 40 FV
98. Jackson Miller, C, Mitchell HS (FL), Wake Forest commit, 40 FV
99. Nick Garcia, RHP, Chapman, 40 FV
100. MacKenzie Wainwright, RF, St. Edward HS (OH), Ohio State commit, 40 FV
101. Casey Schmitt, 3B/RHP, San Diego State, 40 FV
102. David Calabrese, CF, St. Elizabeth Catholic HS (CAN), Arkansas commit, 40 FV

2021 Rankings