TrackMan Baseball has provided ESPN with tons of data to use on the broadcast of the Major League Baseball draft on Wednesday and Thursday, so you'll see it peppered throughout both visually and verbally. I wanted to take a chance to include lots of those notes you'll see and hear and also throw in a bunch of other stuff, to illustrate the sort of data that until now only teams had in a comprehensive supply.
This dataset includes players from junior colleges (about a dozen schools have it), the Cape Cod League and high school (a number of showcases and all-star games were played in front of units), in addition to four-year college players (more than 70 Division I schools pay to have a unit at their stadium). So when I refer to "third best in the draft class," it includes the vast majority of players on my rankings, but not every single one of them. Data is from 2019 unless specifically stated to be from 2020.
Pitchers
First, some single-event superlatives. Notre Dame RHP Joe Boyle had the fastest recorded pitch at 101.0 mph, and he'll go outside the top few rounds due to command issues. But there's a mess of early-round prospects just behind Boyle on the list: Georgia RHPs Cole Wilcox (99.3) and Emerson Hancock (99.2), along with Oklahoma RHP Cade Cavalli (98.9), Ball State RHP Kyle Nicolas (98.6), and Texas prep RHP Jared Kelley (98.4).
Some names with sleeper arm strength to keep an eye on: Loyola Marymount RHP Nick Frasso (97.5), Vanderbilt RHP Tyler Brown (96.9) and LHP Jake Eder (97.0), along with East Carolina RHP Gavin Williams (98.3).
Looking at average velocity and looking for new names would give us more sustained velocity rather than single bullets, and we find Texas prep SS/RHP Masyn Winn (94.7) from his electric outing in October in Jupiter, Florida; Florida prep RH Victor Mederos (94.4); and Southern Miss RHP Gabe Shepard (94.3), mostly from his stellar start in last year's regionals.
Some arms that popped up from the 2020-only sample include Minnesota RHP Max Meyer (96.8 average, 99.7 peak), Dallas Baptist LHP Burl Carraway (96.4 average, 99.3 peak), and Louisville RHP Bobby Miller (95.8 average, 98.7 peak).
Fastball spin is generally a good thing, but spin axis is very important, so I won't spend too much time on raw average fastball spin rates. Some leaders: New York prep RHP Alex Santos (2612), Tennessee LHP Garrett Crochet (2573), and Vanderbilt RHP Tyler Brown (2548).
Brown's velocity, spin rate, college reliever track record and pro starting pitcher traits have lots of similarities to former New York Yankees prospect Chance Adams, which explains why the Yankees are among the clubs rumored to be kicking the tires on Brown for a role change in pro ball in Rounds 3 and 4.
Carraway also is at Dallas Baptist currently, and he is third on the 2020 list at 2520 rpm, with an optimized four-seam fastball/curveball repertoire that many clubs covet. I'm also told he learned how to throw a slider (which also grades as plus now) at a DBU camp from Clayton Kershaw, so good luck, hitters.
One more important element of a four-seam, high-spin, up-in-the-zone fastball is the vertical approach angle, which a pitcher wants to be as flat as possible, or the lowest possible number. Essentially, this is measuring the plane as the pitch crosses the plate, from the perspective of the dugout. If all swings have an element of lift, the flattest possible fastball will intersect with that bat path for the least amount of time. Someone like Craig Kimbrel -- not tall, with a lower arm slot, big extension down the mound for a lower release point, high spin and a "rising" four-seam fastball -- is one of the most extreme versions of the ideal way to achieve this.
At the top of the 2019 leaderboard here is Oklahoma prep RHP Nate Wohlgemuth (-3.7), Texas prep SS/RHP Masyn Winn (-4.1) and California prep LHP Kyle Harrison (-4.1). Wohlgemuth and Winn both get into the upper-90s at times with their fastball velocity, while Harrison is more of a touch-and-feel, low-90s lefty who likely goes to college baseball. Winn also is considered a better prospect as a shortstop than a pitcher, so you can see why clubs including the Tampa Bay Rays and San Diego Padres are circling him in to get picked in the 20s to 30s overall as a potential two-way pro prospect.
On the 2020 data, the -4.0 from Tech RHP Zach Brzykcy -- pronounced BRICK-see, like a character in a Guy Ritchie film, played by Colin Farrell -- stands out, and Brzykcy also averaged 95.1 mph on his heater in 2020, topping at 97.7. Command issues will limit him to the later rounds of this year's draft.
Next we move onto average raw curveball spin rate, which is subject to the same spin axis issues of a fastball, but both can be relatively reliably tweaked in player development, and more spin is generally better. The top single spin rate measured was that of Texas Tech RHP Clayton Beeter (3090 peak, 2783 average), which is one big reason why some analysts think his curveball is a true 80 pitch, one of two true 80 breaking balls in the draft, along with Max Meyer's spike-grip slider. The top average spin rate in 2020 is that of Ohio State LHP Seth Lonsway (2844), who had a 65- or 70-grade hammer when I saw him this spring against Georgia Tech.
A few sleepers in the 2020 data on their curveballs are Florida State LHP Shane Drohan (2747, was a clear 60- or 65-grade pitch to my eyes in high school), Clemson LHP Sam Weatherly (2692, drawing universal 60+ grades from scouts) and South Carolina RHP Brannon Jordan (2659), who is getting fourth- or fifth-round buzz following a strong spring for the Gamecocks after transferring from a junior college. The top 2019 peak and average exit velocities belongs to Florida prep LHP Mason Miller (2874 average, 3053 peak), who works in the low-90s and has a shot to be picked because of this ultra-high-spin yakker.
Lastly, Zach Day at TrackMan Baseball used some of its pitch-grading algorithms, comparable to what clubs use, to offer his top 20 pitchers in the draft based on that data:
1. Max Meyer, Minnesota
2. Asa Lacy, Texas A&M
3. Clayton Beeter, Texas Tech
4. Garrett Crochet, Tennessee
5. Emerson Hancock, Georgia
6. Tanner Witt, Texas HS (2759 rpm average, 2990 rpm peak curveball spin rates)
7. Tanner Burns, Auburn
8. Logan Allen, Florida International
9. Reid Detmers, Louisville
10. Mason Erla, Michigan State
11. Bryce Jarvis, Duke
12. Masyn Winn, Texas HS
13. Burl Carraway, Dallas Baptist
14. Christian Chamberlain, Oregon State
15. Slade Cecconi, Miami
16. Brannon Jordan, South Carolina
17. Jared Jones, California HS
18. Mick Abel, Oregon HS
19. Cole Wilcox, Georgia
20. Nate Wohlgemuth, Oklahoma HS
Hitters
Who wants to see some dingers? The two top single exit velocities measured in 2019 or 2020 come from two potential fourth- or fifth-round picks who are pretty one-dimensional, but draft models love them due to these numbers: Georgia Tech RF Baron Radcliff (116.3 mph) and Florida State RF Elijah Cabell (114.0 mph), both in 2019. The next three after them from 2019 all will likely go in the top 37 picks: North Carolina 1B Aaron Sabato (113.6), Arizona State 1B Spencer Torkelson (112.8) and toolshed Mississippi State SS Jordan Westburg (112.2).
The top single 2020 exit velocity comes from another later-round prospect in Joey Wiemer (113.8 mph), the tools-over-performance right fielder from Cincinnati. And the third-highest one comes from another lighter performer who has such upside that he might sneak into the second round: Arizona State 3B Gage Workman (112.6 mph).
One more single-event leaderboard is for distance, and a lot of the same names pop up, with Radcliff's 471-foot shot ranking as the 2019-20 leader. Some new names that pop up: Arkansas RF Heston Kjerstad (446 feet) and SS Casey Martin (442 feet, which is a somewhat shocking number considering Martin is an 80-grade runner who can play a solid shortstop).
The top prep distance is from another draft-model darling -- Canadian left fielder Owen Caissie, 17 on draft day -- at 428 feet.
A more indicative number of overall hitting skill is hard-hit rate, meaning the amount of balls hit over 95 mph among all the balls a prospect has put in play. Sample size is a big issue with these figures, so it means the most in the SEC, where almost the whole league has TrackMan units (that is, almost every swing is captured) and the competition level is the highest.
Among SEC performers in 2019 -- because 2020 sample sizes are too small -- the leaders (and everyone above 50%) are Tennessee left fielder Alerick Soularie (64%, projected for the third to fifth rounds); Mississippi State left fielder Tanner Allen (55%, injured but a possible draftee); Vanderbilt infielder Austin Martin (54%, likely to be among the top five picks overall); Mississippi State shortstop Jordan Westburg (54%, a likely first-rounder); Westburg's double-play partner, Justin Foscue (52%, another likely first-rounder); and two more teammates in Arkansas' Heston Kjerstad (52%, first round) and Casey Martin (52%, second round).
Some data sleepers from Zach Day: Texas A&M outfielder Zach DeLoach (whom I project going in the second round) and Michigan outfielder Jordan Nwogu (third or fourth round)