Playing baseball is hard. Drafting baseball players might be even harder. To call the MLB draft a crapshoot isn't exactly accurate because scouts and front offices actually do a really good job. It's just that invariably there are going to be a lot of misses along the way.
What follows is a list of 10 of the biggest misses of the decade, and yes, injuries are, unfortunately, sometimes a factor. Fair or not, that's the roll of the dice any time you select a pitcher, in particular. I considered only players selected among the top 10 overall picks, and there is nobody included from 2016 or later -- it's a little soon to make a declarative statement on any of those players, even if they have struggled in the minors so far.
Mark Appel, Houston Astros (first overall, 2013)
The Pirates drafted Appel eighth overall in 2012, but he didn't sign, returned to Stanford, finished his degree in management science and engineering, then was selected by the Astros with the first pick in 2013, allowing the Cubs to happily snag Kris Bryant with the second pick. Appel was the consensus top talent in the draft, viewed as a future No. 1 starter and polished enough to reach the big leagues quickly -- probably in 2014, following a similar path as Stephen Strasburg a few years prior.
Almost immediately, however, there were concerns. "His stuff was crisper and firmer as an amateur than in his pro debut," Baseball America wrote in its 2014 Prospect Handbook. "He would tip his changeup by slowing his arm, and he struggled to locate his slider. Amateur scouts saw a potential frontline starter, but pro scouts saw a middle-of-the-rotation candidate. The latter group also was less impressed with his athleticism."
Appel began 2014 at Class A Lancaster and got absolutely destroyed, allowing 74 hits and 51 runs in 44⅓ innings -- a 9.74 ERA. He was then promoted to Double-A, as the Astros figured getting him out of the California League might help, and he did pitch better there. In 2015, he went 10-3 with a 4.37 ERA between Double-A and Triple-A, with 110 strikeouts and 51 walks in 131⅔ innings. Those numbers weren't great and there were concerns his fastball was too straight, but ESPN and MLB.com still ranked him as a top-70 prospect (Baseball America had dropped him from its top 100). The Astros had lost faith, however, and traded him to the Phillies in the Ken Giles deal.
With the Phillies, Appel made just eight starts in 2016 before undergoing season-ending surgery to remove a bone spur from his elbow. After posting a 5.14 ERA in the minors in 2017, he retired in the spring of 2018. At the time, Appel at least had a good perspective on his place in history.
"Would I have loved to be pitching in the World Series? Absolutely. Some people have real struggles. I played baseball. I thought I was going to be great, and I wasn't," he said. "I had high expectations. I didn't live up to those for a number of reasons. If you want to call me the biggest draft bust, you can call it that."
Not including recent picks, the only other No. 1 picks not to reach the majors were Yankees left-hander Brien Taylor, who suffered a shoulder injury in a bar fight while in the minors, and Mets catcher Steve Chilcott, infamously drafted one pick ahead of Reggie Jackson in 1966.
Bubba Starling, Kansas City Royals (fifth overall, 2011)
Starling was a multisport star at a suburban Kansas City high school, averaging 28 points per game in basketball while earning a scholarship to Nebraska to play quarterback in addition to baseball. If anything, baseball was his third sport, but the Royals loved the blue-chip athleticism and saw their center fielder of the future. They weren't the only ones who saw upside here, as Baseball America had him ranked as the No. 6 prospect heading into the draft and ESPN had him No. 3. The Royals gave Starling a franchise-record $7.5 million bonus, the second biggest of the draft and almost $5 million above slot.
As a pro, Starling just hasn't hit, with a career .244/.317/.393 line in eight minor league seasons. With the juiced ball at Triple-A in 2019, he did hit .310/.358/.448, earning a promotion to the majors, where he struggled with a .215/.255/.317 line in 197 plate appearances. He might be able to stick as a backup outfielder, but the Royals' plan in spring training was to play Whit Merrifield in center field.
What really stings with this pick, however, is the players the Royals missed out on. Anthony Rendon went sixth to the Nationals; Francisco Lindor and Javier Baez also went in the top 10; and George Springer went 11th to the Astros.
Danny Hultzen, Seattle Mariners (second overall, 2011)
Three picks before the Royals selected Starling, the Mariners took Hultzen, who had dominated his junior season at Virginia with a 1.37 ERA, 165 strikeouts and just 23 walks in 118 innings. It wasn't necessarily a reach, but Hultzen was viewed at the time as more of a "safe" pick who would reach the majors quickly, and it did come as a bit of a surprise, as everyone expected the Mariners to select a position player -- such as Rendon, whom many viewed as the top player in the draft.
Hultzen didn't have too many problems at Double-A in 2012, with a 1.19 ERA over 13 starts, but he struggled in 12 starts at Triple-A with a 5.92 ERA and 43 walks in 48⅔ innings. Hultzen created a lot of deception with his motion, but he also threw across his body, a delivery that had worried some teams heading into the draft. In 2013, he tore his rotator cuff -- he had a 2.05 ERA in six starts at Triple-A, with just seven walks and one home run allowed in 30⅔ innings. He barely pitched over the next five years, experiencing so much pain in his shoulder that at one point he couldn't even pick up a baseball. To his credit, he continued to push and reached the majors last season with the Cubs for 3⅓ innings, so if he can stay healthy, he has a chance to hang around as a lefty reliever.
The injury was obviously unfortunate and Hultzen was looking like a potential solid major league starter, but as with the Royals and Starling, what stings most is whom the Mariners could have selected. Rendon was No. 1 on Baseball America's board and No. 2 on ESPN's board (behind Gerrit Cole, who went No. 1 to the Pirates), and Lindor reportedly had a legendary pre-draft workout for the Mariners. What could have been.
Brady Aiken, Houston Astros (first overall, 2014)
Tyler Kolek, Miami Marlins (second overall, 2014)
Both of these prep pitchers fall into the what-if category, as both have undergone Tommy John surgery and barely pitched as pros. In fact, this pick actually turned out to be beneficial in a twisted way for the Astros, who failed to sign Aiken when issues in his medical reports popped up and the two sides failed to agree on a reduced bonus. If a team fails to sign a first-round pick, it is compensated with a pick one slot lower in the next draft. The Astros used the second pick in 2015 on Alex Bregman.
While it worked out in the end for the Astros, it hasn't worked out for Aiken. The clear No. 1 prospect in 2014 out of a San Diego high school, Aiken became the first high school pitcher drafted first since Brien Taylor in 1991. He enrolled at IMG Academy in Florida looking to reenter the draft for 2015 but hurt his elbow in his first start -- the Astros' fears were correct -- and underwent Tommy John surgery. The Indians still rolled the dice with the 17th pick.
Aiken struggled in a full season at Class A in 2017 (4.77 ERA, 101 walks and just 89 strikeouts in 132 innings) and has pitched just two-thirds of an inning the past two seasons, leaving Lake County in April 2019 after walking six batters in two relief outings. In December, Indians president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti confirmed that Aiken "took some time away from the game. ... I think it's just been a really hard path for him, a combination of injuries and he struggled performance-wise. He put in a lot of effort to try to get back to being able to compete, and he just hasn't been able to get to that point yet. I think he's hit that point of reassessing his future."
Kolek, meanwhile, was a huge 6-foot-5, 260-pound right-hander with a 100 mph fastball out of Shepherd (Texas) High School. The Marlins envisioned the next Josh Beckett, another Texas high schooler drafted second overall. Instead, Kolek has pitched 163 innings in his minor league career, most of that coming in 2015, when his velocity wavered from the upper 80s to touching 101. Tommy John surgery then cost him all of 2016 and most of 2017, and he had thoracic outlet surgery in 2018. He pitched just 13⅔ innings in 2019 -- and walked 27 batters.
Christian Colon, Kansas City Royals (fourth overall, 2010)
We don't want to go with just injured pitchers here, and maybe Colon shouldn't be included at all -- after all, his pinch-hit RBI single in the 12th inning of Game 5 of the 2015 World Series proved to be the Series-winning hit, so he'll always have a fond spot in the hearts of Royals fans. But Colon has had a marginal big league career, with just 394 plate appearances and one career home run, a disappointment considering he was drafted on the strength of his bat.
A shortstop at Cal State Fullerton, Colon hit .358 with 17 home runs and excellent contact ability in his draft year. With limited range, a below-average arm and below-average speed, he projected as an offensive-minded second baseman. Still, that's a bit of an odd pick for the fourth overall selection, as you rarely see a second baseman go in the first round, let alone that high. That put all the pressure on the bat, but Colon never produced much power in the minors and hasn't been able to stick around in the bigs even as a utility infielder, playing just eight games with the Reds in 2019.
Trey Ball, Boston Red Sox (seventh overall, 2013)
Ball was an athletic two-way player out of an Indiana high school, but when the 6-6 lefty came out in the spring of his senior year sitting 92 to 94 mph, his upside on the mound made him one of the top prep pitchers in the draft. With their highest pick since taking Trot Nixon at No. 7 in 1993, the Red Sox made Ball the second high school pitcher selected in 2013.
Scouts liked Ball's smooth delivery, and he showed the makings of a plus changeup and curveball. At the time, the pick wasn't viewed as risky, other than the usual caveats for any high school pitcher. Ball needed to get stronger and add weight, and he did that -- the scouting reports through the years praised his work ethic -- but after turning pro, he was never able to maintain the same velocity he showed in high school and proved very hittable with mediocre strikeout rates. After posting a 6.06 ERA in two seasons at Double-A in 2017 and 2018 (allowing 97 hits in 65⅓ innings as a reliever in 2018), Ball began working as an outfielder in 2019 but missed most of the season with oblique and ankle injuries.
Michael Choice, Oakland Athletics (10th overall, 2010)
The A's no doubt salivated at Choice's .576 OBP his junior season at Texas-Arlington -- he led Division I with 76 walks -- and made him the highest selection in school history, ahead of Hunter Pence. With leverage and bat speed, his power projected at 70 on the 20-80 scouting scale, but note this caveat from Baseball America: "Oakland believes he can hit for a solid average as well, but his swing is unorthodox with a lot of moving parts."
Beware as well of gaudy numbers against weaker competition. The Southland Conference is not the ACC or SEC, and Choice had fanned 54 times in 196 at-bats. That's a lot of strikeouts for an elite college hitter, and while that was balanced with all those walks, scouts were concerned he'd have strikeout issues in pro ball. Indeed, that's what happened, and other than a 30-homer year at Class A Stockton in 2011, the in-game power didn't always show up. He received one extended bit of playing time with the Rangers in 2014 but hit .182 in 253 at-bats. At least Choice has been able to carve out a career at other levels of baseball, even if his major league dreams were short-lived: He played in Korea in 2017 and 2018 and in Mexico in 2019.
Cornelius Randolph, Philadelphia Phillies (10th overall, 2015)
Randolph was a shortstop from the same Georgia high school that produced Tim Beckham, the No. 1 pick in the 2008 draft. Randolph moved immediately to left field as a pro, however, putting all the pressure on him to hit. Still, scouts loved his hit tool, and he looked promising that first summer, hitting .302/.425/.442 in the Gulf Coast League, albeit with just one home run.
He entered 2016 as a top-100 prospect on some lists, but the bat hasn't developed against better pitching, with Randolph producing a career minor league line of .255/.343/.376. Even in Reading's hitter-friendly park in 2019, he hit just .247/.324/.399 with 10 home runs in 348 at-bats. Randolph's star had fallen long before then, as he dropped off Baseball America's list of the top 30 Phillies prospects before the 2018 season. Is there a lesson here? While the hit tool is often the most underrated -- and the most difficult to project -- Randolph had serious question marks even in his draft year, including a stocky build and the lack of a defensive profile.
Barret Loux, Arizona Diamondbacks (sixth overall, 2010)
This was a weird one. Nobody had Loux going in the top 10, even after a solid junior season at Texas A&M during which he struck out 136 batters in 105 innings. He lacked a standout second pitch, and some teams worried about his health. He had missed time as a high school senior with a tender shoulder and underwent surgery to remove bone chips as a sophomore at A&M. Baseball America had him 35th on its draft board, but the Diamondbacks liked his size (6-5) and easy delivery -- oh, and his willingness to sign for a below-slot $2 million bonus.
Then Loux failed his physical, the Diamondbacks moved on, and MLB, in an unprecedented move, declared Loux a free agent. He signed with the Rangers for $312,000. Loux had a solid season at Class A in 2011 and went 14-1 at Double-A in 2012 (although with so-so peripherals). But the Rangers traded him to the Cubs for Jake Brigham, a pitcher who had just gone from the Rangers to the Cubs at the 2012 trade deadline for Geovany Soto. (Apparently, the Cubs had been worried about Brigham's health, so the teams had an arrangement that Brigham would be traded back to the Rangers if he got hurt, which he did soon after the July trade.)
Following along? Anyway, Loux soon had shoulder problems and then Tommy John surgery, and he never reached the majors. With the compensation pick they received in the 2011 draft, the Diamondbacks at least landed Archie Bradley, but the players they passed up in 2010 to save a little money included Matt Harvey (who went with the next pick), Yasmani Grandal, Chris Sale and Christian Yelich.