Re-drafting the top picks in every MLB draft from 2010-2019

The Major League Baseball draft is mysterious and unpredictable. In the NFL, a first-round pick is expected to step into a significant role immediately -- even rookie quarterbacks often start right away. In the NBA, six of this season's All-Stars were in their third year or less and nine were 23 or younger. In baseball, most third-year professionals are still riding buses in the minor leagues. When drafting in baseball, you have to project well into the future -- often to a point when the general manager and scouting director have long since left the organization.

The New York Mets, for example, drafted Jacob deGrom in the ninth round in 2010. The general manager was Omar Minaya, who was fired after that season. Sandy Alderson lasted eight seasons before Brodie Van Wagenen replaced him. Meanwhile, deGrom developed from a player who barely pitched until his junior season of college into a two-time Cy Young winner. He entered 2020 with less than six years of service time, so even if he hadn't signed an extension, he still would have been under team control through the 2020 season -- 10 years after getting drafted. If we ever do play baseball this year, Van Wagenen will benefit from an astute selection made a decade ago.

So, as we re-draft each draft of the past decade, remember that for every late-round gem like deGrom there are many more first-round picks who don't make it -- including the top 10 busts of the 2010s we listed earlier in the week. Obviously, some of these players are in midcareer and some are just starting out, so even these lists will look much different a few years from now. We asked ESPN MLB prospect guru Kiley McDaniel to weigh in as well.

Jump to a draft ... :
2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014
2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019

2010 re-draft

1. Washington Nationals: Chris Sale (Went No. 13 to White Sox; Nationals took Bryce Harper)

2. Pittsburgh Pirates: Manny Machado (Went No. 3 to Orioles; Pirates took Jameson Taillon)

3. Baltimore Orioles: Christian Yelich (Went No. 23 to Marlins; Orioles took Machado)

4. Kansas City Royals: Jacob deGrom (Went in Round 9 to Mets; Royals took Christian Colon)

5. Cleveland Indians: Bryce Harper (Went No. 1 to Nationals; Indians took Drew Pomeranz)

6. Arizona Diamondbacks: Andrelton Simmons (Went in Round 2 to Braves; Diamondbacks took Barret Loux)

7. New York Mets: J.T. Realmuto (Went in Round 3 to Marlins; Mets took Matt Harvey)

8. Houston Astros: Kevin Kiermaier (Went in Round 31 to Rays; Astros took Delino DeShields)

9. San Diego Padres: Yasmani Grandal (Went No. 12 to Reds; Padres took Karsten Whitson)

10. Oakland Athletics: Noah Syndergaard (Went No. 38 to Blue Jays; A's took Michael Choice)

Other notable players: Adam Eaton, James Paxton, Kole Calhoun, Eddie Rosario, Nicholas Castellanos, Corey Dickerson, Whit Merrifield, Joc Pederson, Robbie Ray

Good bet: When he was coming out of Florida Gulf Coast, Sale's slim build and slingshot delivery scared off some teams, who feared he would break down. He did ... after 109 wins, 1,629 innings, 2,007 strikeouts and a 3.03 ERA.

Oops: Whitson was the second high school pitcher taken in the draft, but the Padres failed to sign him and he went to the University of Florida, where he developed shoulder problems after a good freshman season. The year before, the Padres took Donavan Tate No. 3 overall (he never even reached Double-A).

Overview: The 2010 draft didn't necessarily prove to be super deep, but it did produce some top star power. In fact, you can probably arrange the top six players above in any order. In terms of career WAR so far, it goes: Sale 45.3, Machado 36.7, Simmons 36.3, deGrom 35.4, Yelich 31.8, Harper 31.8.

I went with Sale as the new No. 1 even though he underwent Tommy John surgery this spring. First, he has been the most consistent of the six players, as witnessed by seven straight seasons with Cy Young votes. When considering a re-draft, I emphasize value accrued early in a player's career -- especially in those initial six or seven seasons of team control -- more than long-term value. Machado and Harper are good bets to finish with more career WAR than Sale, but their yet-to-accrue value doesn't do anything for the Orioles or Nationals.

I put Machado ahead of Harper and Yelich because he has been better so far and his defensive ability means he's a safer bet to remain at least an average player well into his 30s, although his decline at the plate in 2019 was somewhat worrisome. Still, I think he'll bounce back with the bat and he's just 27. Harper and Yelich are tied in career WAR and Harper is a year younger, but Yelich has performed at a much higher level the past two years. I'd take him the next five years over Harper without any hesitation.

Since deGrom was a college player, he's several years older than Yelich or Harper, making a comparison a little more difficult, but those Cy Young seasons are in the books and there may be more to come. Simmons' value is primarily on defense, but to rank him higher, I think you have to really put complete faith in the defensive metrics and also assume he'll hold his defense value into his 30s -- Ozzie Smith did, but most shortstops don't.

Kiley McDaniel's inside take: Book plug alert -- in my book "Future Value," Marlins scouting director Stan Meek told me that if Christian Yelich didn't get to be their first pick (23rd overall), he would have picked Andrelton Simmons, who went 70th overall to the Braves. Also, it's too long to recount here, but I'm told that Meek talking about initially scouting J.T. Realmuto is the best story in the book.

A couple of other notes: Machado and Harper were both super young for their high school class and would have absolutely gone 1-2 for every team just a few years later, when Rany Jazayerli's research came out just after the 2011 draft. Syndergaard was a surprise pick at 38th overall since he wasn't on many draft radars for the early rounds, so most teams weren't checking in late when his velocity spiked just before the draft. The Blue Jays made a conscious decision in 2010 to have more area scouts covering smaller areas who knew more about the players; it paid dividends quickly.

2011 re-draft

1. Pirates: Mookie Betts (Went in Round 5 to Red Sox; Pirates took Gerrit Cole)

2. Seattle Mariners: Francisco Lindor (Went No. 8 to Indians; Mariners took Danny Hultzen)

3. Diamondbacks: Anthony Rendon (Went No. 6 to Nationals; Diamondbacks took Trevor Bauer)

4. Orioles: Gerrit Cole (Went No. 1 to Pirates; Orioles took Dylan Bundy)

5. Royals: George Springer (Went No. 11 to Astros; Royals took Bubba Starling)

6. Nationals: Javier Baez (Went No. 9 to Cubs; Nationals took Rendon)

7. Diamondbacks: Trevor Story (Went No. 45 to Rockies; Diamondbacks took Archie Bradley)

8. Indians: Marcus Semien (Went in Round 6 to White Sox; Indians took Lindor)

9. Chicago Cubs: Sonny Gray (Went No. 18 to A's; Cubs took Baez)

10. Padres: Kyle Hendricks (Went in Round 8 to Rangers; Padres took Cory Spangenberg)

Other notable players: Blake Snell, Jose Fernandez, Mike Clevinger, Jackie Bradley Jr., Kolten Wong, Nick Ahmed, Kevin Pillar, Seth Lugo, Joe Panik, Josh Bell

Good bet: Springer had big-time tools, but he had played in a weak conference at UConn and had some holes in his swing, including a backside collapse. The final pick of the pre-Jeff Luhnow regime in Houston, however, cleaned up his swing and has produced 25.4 WAR so far, third best among the first-round picks.

Oops: With the second pick in a strong draft, the Mariners took Virginia lefty Hultzen, who was viewed as a "safe" pick. Instead, he got hurt in the minors and the Mariners missed their opportunity to draft a franchise player.

Overview: This has a chance to go down as one of the better drafts in history, especially thanks to a loaded first round that already has 12 players with 10-plus career WAR. It was an obscure fifth-round pick, however, who has proved to be the biggest star of the draft. Betts was the Tennessee male high school bowler of the year in 2010, a star point guard in basketball ... oh, and a pretty good baseball player. That was a great draft for the Red Sox, as they also snagged Matt Barnes in the first round, Bradley as a supplemental first-rounder and Travis Shaw in the ninth round.

Lindor was just 17 on draft day, and those who have studied the draft know that's a huge factor. Compare that to Starling, taken fifth overall by the Royals -- he turned 19 shortly after getting drafted. Both were high school seniors, but Lindor was 15 months younger. I have Rendon over Cole; as dominant as Cole was last year, Rendon was great as well. He has more career WAR (29.1 to 23.9) and as a position player faces less career-threatening injury risk.

Springer versus Baez is a good debate, but Springer has clearly been more valuable so far, 25.4 WAR to 16.8, and sticking to my rule of weighing value closer to the draft, Springer rates the edge. The argument for Baez is that he's three years younger, but I'd like to see some improvement on that .310 career OBP (.316 in 2019). Semien has more career WAR so far than Baez or Story, but he was a college player and the players are close enough in career value that the age advantage for Baez and Story becomes a factor.

At the bottom, you could argue for Gray, Hendricks, Snell, Bauer or Clevinger for the top 10. Hendricks actually leads that group in career WAR and with a 3.14 career ERA continues to succeed despite an underwhelming fastball. Until proved otherwise, or until one of the other pitchers has a string of great seasons, Hendricks deserves a top-10 spot. Clevinger is coming on strong as a late bloomer, but Gray had an early peak with the A's and his rebound season with the Reds in 2019 suggests he's not done yet. Snell has a Cy Young season on his résumé and, I believe, some great seasons yet to come. Bauer is durable and famous but has just one season with an ERA under 4.00. So I went with Gray and Hendricks. In five years, it wouldn't surprise me if Snell and Clevinger have passed them.

Kiley's inside take: After Mookie Betts broke out in the big leagues, I spoke with a scout from that area about what he saw from Betts in his spring scouting look. "I didn't get a great look -- he didn't swing much that day -- but after BP, the one thing I could say with some confidence is he wouldn't have much power. Guess I messed that one up."

Francisco Lindor had a legendary pre-draft workout for the Mariners, and they almost picked him as a result of that performance. It would have been a better outcome than drafting Danny Hultzen (3⅓ MLB innings). I was in the draft room for the Pirates this year in a very strong draft: Gerrit Cole, Josh Bell (who 29 teams thought was unsignable) and Tyler Glasnow are the headliner names, but one that (just barely) got away was a little-known South Florida prep shortstop whom only a few teams were in on as a pro prospect: Trea Turner.

2012 re-draft

1. Astros: Carlos Correa (Went No. 1 to Astros)

2. Minnesota Twins: Corey Seager (Went No. 18 to Dodgers; Twins took Byron Buxton)

3. Mariners: Matt Olson (Went No. 47 to A's; Mariners took Mike Zunino)

4. Orioles: Jose Berrios (Went No. 32 to Twins; Orioles took Kevin Gausman)

5. Royals: Byron Buxton (Went No. 2 to Twins; Royals took Kyle Zimmer)

6. Cubs: Max Muncy (Went in Round 5 to A's; Cubs took Albert Almora Jr.)

7. Padres: Marcus Stroman (Went No. 22 to Blue Jays; Padres took Max Fried)

8. Pirates: Lucas Giolito (Went No. 16 to Nationals; Pirates took Mark Appel)

9. Marlins: Joey Gallo (Went No. 39 to Rangers; Marlins took Andrew Heaney)

10. Rockies: Josh Hader (Went in Round 19 to Orioles; Rockies took David Dahl)

Other notable players: Alex Wood, Michael Wacha, Mitch Haniger, Chris Taylor, Addison Russell, Lance McCullers Jr., Taylor Rogers, Edwin Diaz

Good bet: Correa was hardly the consensus overall talent in the draft and the Astros took him in part because he signed for $4.8 million -- well below the $7.2 million figure assigned for that slot. The Astros used that savings later in the draft to sign Lance McCullers Jr. Meanwhile, Correa proved worthy of the No. 1 pick. Worth noting: Like Lindor the year before, Correa was just 17 on draft day.

Oops: With the 17th pick, the Blue Jays took Mississippi high school outfielder D.J. Davis, who never made it out of A-ball. With the next pick, the Dodgers took Seager.

Overview: This draft is weak enough so far that I have a relief pitcher going in the top 10 of my re-draft -- no offense intended to relief pitchers. The two shortstops comfortably rank 1-2, while A's first baseman Olson is a bit of a surprise at No. 3. He's coming off a 5.4-WAR season, however, that included 36 home runs and his second Gold Glove. Berrios is already a two-time All-Star, and Giolito could climb this list after what appears to be a breakout 2019 campaign with the White Sox.

Otherwise, we're still waiting for Buxton and Gallo to put everything together. Buxton had a 5.1-WAR season in 2017 but has played just 115 games in the majors the past two seasons. He's as good as anybody in the game in center field and had a 114 OPS+ in 2019, so there's still big upside in play here. Gallo has two 40-homer seasons, but he hit .209 and .206. If he can hit .276 like he did in the first half of 2019 before he went down with an injury, he has a chance to be more than the next Adam Dunn.

Kiley's inside take: In 2010, I was told to look out for three top-shelf prep prospects in the 2012 class: Lance McCullers Jr., Addison Russell and Nick Williams.

McCullers was a somewhat one-dimensional fastball/curveball future relief prospect (whose stuff came very early, hitting 95 mph at age 15) until midway through his draft spring, when he made great strides after some teams already had written him off.

Russell was overweight on the summer showcase circuit, and a coach for Team USA told him he wouldn't play shortstop if he didn't lose the weight. He lost about 25 pounds over the fall and winter, and he came out svelte in the spring as a plus runner with plus raw power en route to going high in the first round, as was expected back in 2010.

Williams was another early-developing tools monster who never quite grasped the feel for the game to reach his potential, but his tools were still so bonkers that he has played a meaningful number of big league games.

2013 re-draft

1. Astros: Cody Bellinger (Went in Round 4 to Dodgers; Astros took Mark Appel)

2. Cubs: Kris Bryant (Went No. 2 to Cubs)

3. Rockies: Aaron Judge (Went No. 32 to Yankees; Rockies took Jon Gray)

4. Twins: Jon Gray (Went No. 3 to Rockies; Twins took Kohl Stewart)

5. Indians: Austin Meadows (Went No. 9 to Pirates; Indians took Clint Frazier)

6. Marlins: Tim Anderson (Went No. 17 to White Sox; Marlins took Colin Moran)

7. Boston Red Sox: Sean Manaea (Went No. 34 to Royals; Red Sox took Trey Ball)

8. Royals: Jeff McNeil (Went in Round 12 to Mets; Royals took Hunter Dozier)

9. Pirates: Marco Gonzales (Went No. 19 to Cardinals; Pirates took Austin Meadows)

10. Toronto Blue Jays: Mitch Garver (Went in Round 9 to Twins; Blue Jays took Phil Bickford)

Other notable players: Trey Mancini, Matthew Boyd, Adam Frazier, Hunter Renfroe, Michael Lorenzen, J.P. Crawford, Brad Keller

Good bet: The Dodgers took a high school first baseman who hit one home run his senior season in the fourth round. Six years later, Bellinger was the National League MVP.

Oops: Not counting the more recent drafts, Appel became just the third No. 1 overall pick not to reach the majors. He was never effective in pro ball with a 5.06 ERA in the minors before retiring in 2018.

Overview: Another weak draft, with Bryant and Judge the only bona fide stars to pop up out of the first round. Meadows and Anderson had breakout seasons in 2019, so we'll see if they can do it again. Garver has had just one big season, but that's enough to get him into the top 10.

What went wrong? The Twins bought Stewart out of a Texas A&M football scholarship as the best prep arm in the country, and while he has reached the majors, the strikeout stuff hasn't developed. Moran was a top college hitter at North Carolina, but ESPN's Keith Law did refer to a "grooved swing." Moran is in the majors with the Pirates but was traded twice and is a defensive liability without the power needed in today's game. The Mariners drafted D.J. Peterson out of New Mexico, and a Baseball America report cited a scout who said Peterson's swing was the best he'd seen in 25 years. He never reached the majors.

And so on. It's not too late for some players to develop into late bloomers, but this could be one of the weakest draft classes in history, both in star power and overall depth.

Kiley's inside take: Aaron Judge was one of the more divisive prospects in the draft. Everyone in the scouting community knew then of his stature and raw tools, like everyone knows about them now. His power production wasn't much; he was producing just OK in the Mountain West Conference at the same age that Giancarlo Stanton was already racking up homers in the big leagues. The Yankees took him only because they had three first-round picks and could handle a first-round miss. Ironically, their other two first-rounders (Eric Jagielo and Ian Clarkin) were the misses.

Tim Anderson popped up out of nowhere in this class, with a couple of teams noticing him in a fall junior college showcase before the season, just before his second season as a juco player. He came out late in his freshman season after basketball and played mostly left field, when most scouts had already moved on to scouting four-year schools and high school. The tools and twitch were obvious, and his pitch selection has progressed just enough to let Anderson use those tools in the big leagues.

2014 re-draft

1. Astros: Matt Chapman (Went No. 25 to A's; Astros took Brady Aiken)

2. Marlins: Jack Flaherty (Went No. 34 to Cardinals; Marlins took Tyler Kolek)

3. White Sox: Aaron Nola (Went No. 7 to Phillies: White Sox took Carlos Rodon)

4. Cubs: Trea Turner (Went No. 13 to Padres; Cubs took Kyle Schwarber)

5. Twins: Michael Conforto (Went No. 10 to Mets; Twins took Nick Gordon)

6. Mariners: Brandon Woodruff (Went in Round 11 to Brewers; Mariners took Alex Jackson)

7. Phillies: Kyle Schwarber (Went No. 4 to Cubs; Phillies took Nola)

8. Rockies: Michael Kopech (Went No. 33 to Red Sox; Rockies took Kyle Freeland)

9. Blue Jays: Alex Verdugo (Went in Round 2 to Dodgers; Blue Jays took Jeff Hoffman)

10. Mets: Kyle Freeland (Went No. 8 to Rockies; Mets took Conforto)

Other notable players: Rhys Hoskins, Carlos Rodon, Brian Anderson, Ryan Yarbrough, Ramon Laureano, John Means, Sean Newcomb, Michael Chavis, Spencer Turnbull, Mitch Keller, Jordan Montgomery

Good bet: Turner entered his junior season at North Carolina State as a possible top-five pick, but his stock dropped with concerns about his hit tool and possible utility infielder projection. The Padres gambled on him with the 13th pick ... only to trade him a few months later to the Nationals in a three-team deal that netted the Padres Wil Myers.

Oops: Neither of the top two picks have panned out, as both pitchers battled injuries. Aiken didn't sign with the Astros, then blew out his left elbow the following spring. The Indians took him in the first round in 2015, but he has barely pitched the past two seasons. Kolek has undergone Tommy John and thoracic outlet surgery.

Overview: Chapman and Nola have produced the most value so far, although if you want to take Flaherty for the long term, I won't argue. While Nola already was viewed as a polished pitcher coming out of LSU, Chapman was an astute pick for the A's. His defensive skills were obvious -- although I don't think anyone exactly viewed him as the next Brooks Robinson -- but he hadn't hit for power at Cal State Fullerton. While he's never going to be a .300 hitter, he has hit 60 home runs and 78 doubles the past two years and had back-to-back 8.3-WAR seasons.

The eventual quality of this draft is dependent on some of the players just reaching the big leagues. Woodruff, drafted out of Mississippi State, showed top-of-the-rotation potential in 2019. We've been hearing about Kopech for so long, but he's still just 24. His ranking is still based on the potential of his 100 mph fastball, but we need to see what happens after his Tommy John surgery in 2018, after just four starts in the majors. Verdugo could be a player who contends for batting titles if he stays healthy.

Kiley's inside take: Alex Verdugo was a better prospect as a pitcher for some clubs, but the Dodgers trusted that his natural hitting ability would unlock enough dormant power to make the gamble worth it. He was the headliner to land Mookie Betts, so it seems like it was.

Turner was a late-rising prep prospect whom only a couple clubs and colleges were on to in his senior year in South Florida. He had big freshman and sophomore seasons for the Wolfpack, but he was playing through injuries and swing tinkering for the heavily scouted part of his amateur career -- playing for Team USA in the summer and then his junior year at NC State. A number of teams and scouts had Turner in the late first round due to these two bad looks, but those who had history and/or stayed on him through a strong pre-draft finish to the season knew he belonged higher.

2015 re-draft

1. Diamondbacks: Alex Bregman (Went No. 2 to Astros; Diamondbacks took Dansby Swanson)

2. Astros: Walker Buehler (Went No. 24 to Dodgers; Astros took Bregman)

3. Rockies: Chris Paddack (Went in Round 8 to Marlins; Rockies took Brendan Rodgers)

4. Texas Rangers: Mike Soroka (Went No. 28 to Braves; Rangers took Dillon Tate)

5. Astros: Paul DeJong (Went in Round 4 to Cardinals; Astros took Kyle Tucker)

6. Twins: Andrew Benintendi (Went No. 7 to Red Sox; Twins took Tyler Jay)

7. Red Sox: Dansby Swanson (Went No. 1 to Diamondbacks; Red Sox took Benintendi)

8. White Sox: David Fletcher (Went in Round 6 to Angels; White Sox took Carson Fulmer)

9. Cubs: Kyle Tucker (Went No. 5 to Astros; Cubs took Ian Happ)

10. Phillies: Brandon Lowe (Went in Round 3 to Rays; Phillies took Cornelius Randolph)

Other notable players: Harrison Bader, Scott Kingery, Brendan Rodgers, Kevin Newman, Trent Grisham, Austin Riley, Ke'Bryan Hayes, Jordan Hicks

Good bet: The Dodgers do it again. No team has drafted better this decade than the Dodgers, especially factoring in their draft position. Buehler had a sore elbow at Vanderbilt but still led the team to the College World Series. Still, he didn't feel right all season and fell to the Dodgers at No. 24. An MRI after getting drafted revealed he did, indeed, need Tommy John surgery, but now the Dodgers have one of the best young starters in the game.

Oops: The White Sox took the wrong Vanderbilt right-hander. Fulmer had incredible stuff but also a delivery and command issues that had many scouts thinking he'd end up in the bullpen. He was the most divisive prospect in the draft. In parts of four major league seasons, he has a 6.56 ERA with 64 walks in 94⅔ innings, and his future does, indeed, appear to be as a reliever.

Overview: After failing to sign Brady Aiken with the top pick in 2014, the Astros were compensated with the second pick in 2015 and landed Bregman, who already has compiled 22.4 career WAR. Prospect Kyle Tucker, taken fifth overall, also cracks the top 10 in the re-draft based on his potential. Once baseball resumes, he should finally get a regular shot in the majors after tearing up Triple-A the past two seasons.

The Cardinals also had an effective draft, even though first-round pick Nick Plummer has busted with a .199 career average in the minors. But with two third-round picks, they got Bader and Hicks, DeJong came out of Illinois State in the fourth round and fifth-rounder Ryan Helsley is a power reliever.

Some might put Rockies infielder Rodgers in the top 10 based on his prospect pedigree -- certainly ahead of Fletcher. Well, Fletcher is a proven if underrated major leaguer who gets on base and plays good defense. He had a 4.5-WAR season in 2019. Rodgers is almost 24, struggled in his cameo with the Rockies in 2019, and his best two stints in the minors have both come at altitude (Lancaster and Albuquerque). I'm skeptical of his bat.

Kiley's inside take: Kyle Tucker first stood out to me when I saw him as a prep sophomore playing on the same team as senior Pete Alonso, who was facing a cross-city rival in Oscar Mercado. Another future top-50 overall pick, RHP Jake Woodford, was also a sophomore on Alonso/Tucker's team for Plant High School in Tampa, where Kyle's older brother and current KBO legend Preston also played before going to Florida. That night as a sophomore, Kyle looked pretty similar to how he looks now, with some added strength, showing super-loose hands and effortless mechanics reminiscent of some of the greats.

I first scouted Andrew Benintendi in 2014 as a freshman at Arkansas. He had good numbers but didn't really seem to have much in the way of tools. In 2015, he had another hot start, and I got a tip that he was sophomore-eligible, which a number of teams didn't know of until a month into the spring season. Scouts rushed in as I did to see Benintendi and how real the tools were. I watched him take BP at Georgia with a half-dozen scouting directors and about 30 scouts total. He was peppering the scoreboard, showing plus speed, and handling mid-90s fastballs during the game. By the end of that weekend, I didn't hear anyone else openly wondering if this guy was actually as good as the hype.

2016 re-draft

1. Phillies: Gavin Lux (Went No. 20 to Dodgers; Phillies took Mickey Moniak)

2. Cincinnati Reds: Pete Alonso (Went in Round 2 to Mets; Reds took Nick Senzel)

3. Atlanta Braves: Shane Bieber (Went in Round 4 to Indians; Braves took Ian Anderson)

4. Rockies: Bo Bichette (Went in Round 2 to Blue Jays; Rockies took Riley Pint)

5. Milwaukee Brewers: Jesus Luzardo (Went in Round 3 to Nationals; Brewers took Corey Ray)

6. Athletics: Matt Manning (Went No. 9 to Tigers; A's took A.J. Puk)

7. Marlins: Dustin May (Went in Round 3 to Dodgers; Marlins took Braxton Garrett)

8. Padres: Will Smith (Went No. 32 to Dodgers; Padres took Cal Quantrill)

9. Detroit Tigers: Bryan Reynolds (Went in Round 2 to Giants; Tigers took Manning)

10. White Sox: A.J. Puk (Went No. 6 to A's; White Sox took Zack Collins)

Other notable players: Dylan Carlson, Ian Anderson, Nick Senzel, Tommy Edman, Carter Kieboom, Forrest Whitley, Nolan Jones, Zac Gallen, Sean Murphy, Cavan Biggio, Joey Lucchesi, Nick Solak, Kyle Lewis, Dakota Hudson

Good bet: I hate to keep going back to the Dodgers, but they plucked Wisconsin high schooler Lux with the 20th overall pick -- a rare first-round find from a cold northern state. At the time, Lux was viewed as a good bet to stick at shortstop, but he needed to develop strength and power. It took a couple of years, but he's done that and is now the consensus No. 2 prospect in the game behind Wander Franco.

Oops: There wasn't a clear No. 1 pick in this draft, so the Phillies went with California high school outfielder Moniak based on the best pure hit tool in the draft. That's why his .256 average through four seasons in the minors has been a surprise. He's still too young to write off, but at this point he projects as a backup outfielder.

Overview: After several mediocre or poor drafts in a row, this one has a chance to be the best since 2011. The weird thing is much of the premium talent came after the first round, while several of the top picks have struggled in the minors. Alonso, Bichette and Reynolds were second-round picks. Luzardo, Kiley's No. 4 overall prospect, was a first-round talent but fell to the third round after Tommy John surgery. The Dodgers scored with May in the third round. The Indians got Aaron Civale in Round 3, All-Star Bieber in Round 4 and Zach Plesac in Round 12 -- three college pitchers. The trio combined for 64 starts and a 3.30 ERA in 2019. The Blue Jays picked up a middle infield with two sons of major leaguers in Bichette and fifth-rounder Biggio.

Of course, it's way too early to construct this list with any degree of confidence. Bichette's 46-game debut with the Blue Jays was more impressive than Lux's 23 games with the Dodgers, but Lux had far superior minor league numbers. You also could rank Bichette over Alonso, given Bichette is a shortstop while Alonso is a below-average first baseman. All of the pitchers in the top 10 have ace potential and I'm a big fan of Zac Gallen, who had an impressive rookie season with the Marlins and Diamondbacks (2.81 ERA in 15 starts). Gallen was drafted by the Cardinals and traded in the Marcell Ozuna deal, but he was part of a strong St. Louis draft that included Edman, Carlson, Hudson and Andrew Knizner.

Kiley's inside take: Bo Bichette was tracked early in his prep career because his brother went in the compensation round a few years earlier, his dad was a well-known big leaguer, and the whole family is on top of their fitness. So Bo stood out even earlier than he would have with a different background. Bichette had a very active swing along the lines of Josh Donaldson or Jose Bautista, and seeing that as OK for a prep prospect hadn't become a part of scouting culture yet. He slid down draft boards because of basically just that, as his swing was occasionally getting out of control as a result. That was despite the clear underlying tools, so it looked silly that the industry missed this badly one year later, when he was a teenager in high-A already.

Luzardo was a star over the summer with above-average stuff but with a maxed-out frame and just an average fastball. That changed in the early spring when his fastball velocity was sitting at 91-95 mph and hitting 97. He was projected for the middle of the first round, but then his left elbow blew out. Luzardo slid to the third round for an over-slot bonus as a result, and since the velocity just before the injury was new, nobody really knew what to expect when he came back. The stuff came back, he cleaned up his body even more, and then the stuff took another jump. We're in probably the best-case scenario today for Luzardo's career from the day his elbow blew out in high school.

I saw Will Smith in a late Louisville-Wake Forest series when I was watching Corey Ray while scouting for the Braves. Brendan McKay stood out, eligible for the next draft, and after two days of watching the Cardinals, Smith also stood out. I called someone in the office to ask where this guy was going and they said about the third round, and I said, "Yeah, I like this guy there, maybe the second?" In the couple of weeks from then until the draft, seemingly every few days we'd hear something new about Smith being considered higher and higher until he was picked 32nd overall. Smith's biggest flaw on draft day was a lack of power and loft to get to the power, which the Dodgers fixed in under two years; he hit 35 homers across Triple-A and the big leagues in 2019.

2017 re-draft

1. Twins: MacKenzie Gore (Went No. 3 to Padres; Twins took Royce Lewis)

2. Reds: Nate Pearson (Went No. 28 to Blue Jays; Reds took Hunter Greene)

3. Padres: Jo Adell (Went No. 10 to Angels; Padres took Gore)

4. Tampa Bay Rays: Brendan McKay (Went No. 4 to Rays)

5. Braves: Keston Hiura (Went No. 9 to Brewers; Braves took Kyle Wright)

6. Athletics: Royce Lewis (Went No. 1 to Twins; A's took Austin Beck)

7. Diamondbacks: Spencer Howard (Went in Round 2 to Phillies; Diamondbacks took Pavin Smith)

8. Phillies: Luis Campusano (Went in Round 2 to Padres; Phillies took Adam Haseley)

9. Brewers: Daulton Varsho (Went in Round 2 to Diamondbacks; Brewers took Hiura)

10. Los Angeles Angels: Drew Waters (Went in Round 2 to Braves; Angels took Adell)

Other notable players: Adam Haseley, Jeter Downs, DL Hall, Evan White, Heliot Ramos, Griffin Canning, James Karinchak

Good bet: Adell was a polarizing prospect at draft time. "Some think he's a tooled-up budding superstar, and some think he's the next Anthony Hewitt -- all tools, no production," wrote Keith Law at ESPN.com. The Angels now have one of the top prospects in the game.

Oops: The Royals took first baseman Nick Pratto with the 14th pick, considered to have one of the best hit tools in the draft. As Keith noted at the time, only one first-round high school first baseman in the previous 15 drafts had produced positive WAR: Eric Hosmer of the Royals. Pratto hit .191 with 164 strikeouts at Class A Wilmington in 2019.

Overview: We know enough now that we can rearrange the actual draft order just a bit. Top pick Lewis was considered a bit of a surprise at the time, if only because he was a high school shortstop whom most projected as a center fielder. He has managed to remain at shortstop so far, but he falls to No. 6 on our list after hitting .236 between Class A and Double-A in 2019. A strong Arizona Fall League, however, helped keep him high on prospect lists. Greene was the second pick, owner of a 100 mph fastball. He underwent Tommy John and didn't pitch in 2019, so he drops out of the top 10 for now.

As for the new No. 1, take your pick between Gore and Pearson. Kiley has Pearson at No. 6 on his overall top 100 prospect list and Gore at No. 8. Pearson is a huge right-hander -- 6-foot-6, 245 pounds -- with a 100 mph fastball and looked great before spring training got shut down with 11 K's and two hits in seven innings. Gore has a four-pitch mix of above-average pitches and dominated the minors in 2019 with 135 K's and just 56 hits in 101 innings. Flip a coin on those two.

Hiura already has proved he can hit major league pitching after his .938 OPS as a rookie, so I could see the case to rank him higher. His defense at second base is below average, however, which will cut into his overall value. Once the universal DH becomes standard, that could be a great spot for him. After Lewis at No. 6, I'll just go in order of Kiley's prospect rankings. I do love Jeter Downs after he bashed out 63 extra-base hits in 2019. Oh ... the Dodgers stole him and Josiah Gray (see 2018) from the Reds.

Kiley's inside take: I was with the Braves in 2017 and had three memorable looks on prospects who are now in the top half of my top 100.

Nate Pearson was a later-blooming power arm at a Florida junior college whom I was sent to see late because he had tailed off some and the Braves wanted someone with fresh eyes to check in on him. He was insanely good over the first couple of innings, sitting 94-97 and hitting 98 mph with his fastball, and his slider and changeup both flashed plus -- and neither of those things had happened in weeks, if not a month. He tailed off a bit down the stretch, but I made sure everyone knew we needed to get back on this guy. He threw 100 mph repeatedly in a heavily scouted pre-draft bullpen, so what I saw is eventually what everyone saw.

Luis Campusano was, to be frank, a hefty-framed catcher on the showcase circuit. He was a defense-first catcher who didn't offer much offensively and was not a great athlete. I was told to go see him and that he had really changed. Boy, had he! He was chiseled and had a much better swing with bigger raw power, but the competition at his level was weak. He didn't catch anyone who could throw into the mid-80s and didn't face many pitchers who could throw that hard. Even now, Campusano isn't a great receiver, but you could see it at times even then while he was catching poor pitching. I couldn't say anything definitive off of my look that spring day, so "one of the best catching prospects in baseball" wasn't really possible to say.

I was told to check out Daulton Varsho when his Wisconsin-Milwaukee squad played in a lightly attended spring break tournament in Florida while I was in the state for spring training. The stadium was just friends and family along with a dozen or so scouts, including a couple of high-level scouts who don't just go to see some random fifth-round-type prospect. I immediately called a superior before the game started to let them know the kind of heat that was there, and he scheduled his own trip to see Varsho a few days later.

Varsho was built like a tree stump and was a shockingly good athlete, showing plus speed, and athletic enough to catch, but without great technique. His arm was a 45-grade tool and he also didn't have much raw power, but he could really hit, even though he didn't do a ton statistically that weekend. He was a type of player we didn't really know how to categorize -- even on draft day -- a big reason he lasted until 68th overall for Arizona to scoop him up.

2018 re-draft

1. Tigers: Casey Mize (Went No. 1 to Tigers)

2. Giants: Joey Bart (Went No. 2 to Giants)

3. Phillies: Jarred Kelenic (Went No. 6 to Mets; Phillies took Alec Bohm)

4. White Sox: Nick Madrigal (Went No. 4 to White Sox)

5. Reds: Alec Bohm (Went No. 3 to Phillies; Reds took Jonathan India)

6. Mets: Logan Gilbert (Went No. 14 to Mariners; Mets took Kelenic)

7. Padres: Grayson Rodriguez (Went No. 11 to Orioles; Padres took Ryan Weathers)

8. Braves: Nolan Gorman (Went No. 19 to Cardinals; Braves took Carter Stewart)

9. Athletics: Tarik Skubal (Went in Round 9 to Tigers; A's took Kyler Murray)

10. Pirates: Josiah Gray (Went in Round 2 to Reds; Pirates took Travis Swaggerty)

Other notable names: Nico Hoerner, Xavier Edwards, Triston Casas, Daniel Lynch, Matthew Liberatore, Brady Singer

Good bet: While it wasn't a surprise Kelenic went sixth overall to the Mets, he was the first high school player drafted and his ceiling now appears higher than several players drafted ahead of him. Of course, if he realizes that, it will come in a Mariners uniform after New York's ill-advised Edwin Diaz/Robinson Cano trade.

Oops: Kyler Murray was a huge gamble for the A's even before he went out that fall and won the Heisman Trophy. He had hit .296 with twice as many strikeouts as walks his draft season at Oklahoma, his first year playing baseball on a regular basis since high school. The A's ultimately hoped his tools would overcome his lack of baseball experience. We'll never know what might have happened, as Murray is entrenched as the Arizona Cardinals' quarterback.

Overview: We know enough after a full season of pro ball to do a little rearranging of the actual draft order. Kelenic ripped through the minors in 2019, reaching Double-A, and leaps past three college bats to No. 3 in the re-draft. Gilbert and Rodriguez had excellent seasons in the minors to move up as well, with Gilbert, drafted out of Stetson, posting a 2.13 ERA across Class A and Double-A. Even in a shortened 2020 season, he's a good bet to appear at some point in the Seattle rotation.

The two biggest leaps, however, come from Skubal and Gray. Skubal was a ninth-round pick out of Seattle University -- not exactly a baseball hotbed. He missed 2017 with Tommy John surgery and returned to Seattle U. after the Diamondbacks took a flier on him in the 37th round. In his first full season in the minors, he struck out 179 in 122⅔ innings while allowing just 87 hits. In nine starts at Double-A, he outpitched No. 1 overall pick Mize, fanning an incredible 82 in 42⅓ innings. Some are skeptical that his fastball-heavy approach will work in the majors, but he does have a plus slider and a curveball that flashes. I think he's the real deal.

The Reds drafted Gray out of Division II Le Moyne College in Syracuse, where he didn't start pitching full time until his junior season. Even after an impressive pro debut in the Appalachian League in 2018, the Reds included him in the Yasiel Puig trade. With the Dodgers, Gray allowed just 98 hits and three home runs in 130 innings, reaching Double-A, and ranks No. 46 on Kiley's top 100 list. How do the Dodgers do it?

Kiley's inside take: I was back on the writing side for the 2018 draft, and one of the quick-rising names I tracked down was Alec Bohm. After BP and infield, I was getting enough Kris Bryant vibes that I was pretty sure I was looking at a high first-round pick, not just a college guy off to a fast start. By the end of the game, multiple special-assistant types were asking me if I thought he'd last to their picks -- and they picked in the top half of the first round. Heavy hitters within the top five were there and clearly watching only Bohm, and it was still March.

I met Bohm's father at the game and he asked me what I thought of his son. I told him, "You're about to get sick of being contacted by scouts and executives, and I'd bet you go in the top 10 picks." He clearly hadn't heard this much before, because he thanked me for the optimistic account. Alec had 31 extra-base hits and just 28 strikeouts that spring, so I'll say he did most of the heavy lifting to go third overall.

I'd seen Tarik Skubal the fall before and he had solid/average stuff and OK feel, with a Tommy John surgery in his rearview. His 2018 debut was set to happen in Florida during spring training, so it was an easy game to grab while I was living nearby. I showed up to the game and there were about 40 scouts in attendance.

Skubal was, in a word, terrible. He worked 90-92 mph but couldn't throw a strike, couldn't land a breaking ball, barely threw a changeup, and it was blisteringly hot. His whole spring was something like this, with poor walk rates. I rated him in Rounds 6-10 and he went in the ninth round. What he has done in pro ball since has to be a best-case scenario from his draft day, and it's a huge credit to the kid. It wouldn't even have been expected from the best amateur moments he's ever had, much less an uninspiring draft spring.

I saw Daniel Lynch briefly early in his draft spring, and he was a somewhat generic lefty throwing 89-91 mph with some feel; I had him in Rounds 3-5 or so. I heard from scouts late in the season just weeks before the draft that his velocity had spiked after he'd been clashing with his pitching coach. I didn't get back in to see him but caught a couple starts on video, and it was striking how much better Lynch looked.

I'd heard stories of his bristling at Virginia's now-changed -- but at the time much-maligned -- pitching strategy, having heated arguments about pitch selection. He eventually won out because his stuff had gotten so good to pair with his already solid command. Eric Longenhagen and I were the two guys high on Lynch on draft day, ranking him 23rd in the class, while he lasted until the 34th pick overall. He's now inside the top 15 of the class, so it's looking like we were still a bit too low.

2019 re-draft

1. Orioles: Adley Rutschman (Went No. 1 to Orioles)

2. Royals: Bobby Witt Jr. (Went No. 2 to Royals)

3. White Sox: CJ Abrams (Went No. 6 to Padres; White Sox took Andrew Vaughn)

4. Marlins: Andrew Vaughn (Went No. 3 to White Sox; Marlins took JJ Bleday)

5. Tigers: JJ Bleday (Went No. 4 to Marlins; Tigers took Riley Greene)

6. Padres: Riley Greene (Went No. 5 to Tigers; Padres took Abrams)

7. Reds: Nick Lodolo (Went No. 7 to Reds)

8. Rangers: Corbin Carroll (Went No. 16 to Diamondbacks; Rangers took Josh Jung)

9. Braves: Shea Langeliers (Went No. 9 to Braves)

10. Giants: Hunter Bishop (Went No. 10 to Giants)

Other notable names: Check back in a couple of years.

Good bet: Carroll was a speedy but slightly undersized outfielder from a Seattle high school. The lack of size and quality competition allowed him to drop, where the Diamondbacks happily snagged him. He had one of the most impressive debuts of any 2019 draftee, hitting .299/.409/.487 with 18 extra-base hits in 42 games and 18 steals in 19 attempts.

Oops: It's too early for that, but the Angels drafted NC State shortstop Will Wilson with the 15th pick and then traded him to the Giants with Zack Cozart, including Wilson in order to dump Cozart's salary. A strange way to use your first-round selection.

Overview: Again, it's early, but the one obvious riser was No. 6 overall pick Abrams, who had one of the best debuts in recent draft history, hitting .401 in 32 games in the Arizona Rookie League (a .250 mark in two games in the Midwest League dropped his overall average to .393). So we've bumped him up three slots, and it's certainly a good debate whether to push him past Witt, especially since both are shortstops and Abrams outperformed Witt in the same league. Indeed, Kiley ranked Abrams No. 23 and Witt No. 24 on his top 100.

The arguments for keeping Witt at No. 2: (1) He's a legitimate shortstop while most believe Abrams, with his blazing speed, will eventually move to center field; (2) Don't overreact to 32 games at low-level minor league baseball (not to mention that many future stars struggled their first two months in pro ball). Still, Abrams played much better (Witt hit .262 with more than twice as many strikeouts) and has a chance to have a special bat. I'll leave Witt at No. 2 for now in deference to the actual draft order, but my gut says Abrams will top Witt over the long haul.

Kiley's inside take: Bishop went from entering the year as a third-round-type prospect who hadn't performed up to his tools to a clear high first-round pick by the middle of the spring after his tools got even better and the performance also jumped. It still wasn't clear on draft day whom the Giants would pick, with Will Wilson also was in their mix at the end. That winter, the Angels traded Wilson to the Giants in the Zack Cozart salary dump.

Tre Fletcher reclassified to the 2019 draft class after the summer showcase season, then played a spring season that was shortened by rain delays in Maine against weak competition. Most teams didn't know enough about him as a player or a person to meet his asking price, but the Cardinals pulled the trigger at pick 58. He has one of the highest upsides in the draft but also the most uncertainty.