The 2020 MLB draft is less than a week away, so we asked our panel of experts some of the burning questions surrounding the event.
MLB prospect guru Kiley McDaniel, reporter David Schoenfield and editor Dan Mullen break down some of the best first-round fits, potential sleepers who have caught their eye, guys they'd stay away from and more.
Full coverage of the 2020 MLB draft is available here.
Watch the 2020 MLB draft on ESPN & the ESPN App
Wednesday: Round 1 starting at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Thursday: Rounds 2-5 starting at 5 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Kiley McDaniel's latest mock draft
Team-by-team draft guide: Fits, needs for all 30 teams
Ranking the top 150 MLB draft prospects
What is one first-round team/player match you would make?
Kiley McDaniel: Masyn Winn and the Tampa Bay Rays. Winn probably will be drafted sometime from the end of Round 1 to the beginning of Round 2 and has flown under the public radar a bit, but he has tools that are outstanding, with a twist that uniquely fits the Rays.
Winn is 5-foot-11 and 185 pounds, so he doesn't fit the ideal size for really any position in today's game, but there's a reason he'll be picked early. As a shortstop, he's still a little raw at the plate, but there's average-to-above hit tool potential and fielding potential, along with above-average raw power. He's a 65- or 70-grade runner and thrower with all kinds of quick twitch, and most clubs will run him out as a shortstop in pro ball. On the mound, he's hit 98 mph with a TrackMan-friendly flat-planed four-seamer that works well up in the zone and a hellacious high-spin breaking ball; both pitches are also 65 or 70 grade.
The Rays like tools, and Winn fits their preferred demographics for high picks, but they also like two-way players (Brendan McKay, Tanner Dodson, Jake Cronenworth). Cronenworth was traded this offseason to the Padres, who also have tinkered with two-way players, as have the Angels.
David Schoenfield: Since I'm a Mariners fan, I'll focus on Seattle. With Jarred Kelenic, Logan Gilbert, Evan White and Julio Rodriguez about to reach the majors -- all four are top-100 prospects -- it makes sense to draft a player who fits on a similar timeline, so I would go with a fast-moving college pitcher in the first round for a third straight draft (joining Gilbert and George Kirby). Minnesota right-hander Max Meyer or Georgia right-hander Emerson Hancock seem the likely choices, with Meyer now more likely to be off the board before Seattle selects sixth. So I'll go Hancock to the Mariners. (Kiley has New Mexico State second baseman Nick Gonzales going to Seattle in his latest mock draft, but Mariners fans shudder thinking of the last college player the M's drafted from that state in the first round -- D.J. Peterson, who never reached the majors.)
Dan Mullen: Austin Martin and the Royals. Yes, a few things need to fall into place for this to happen. Namely, Baltimore needs to decide to go with an under-slot pick at No. 2 to let Martin slide down a couple of spots to K.C., but I'm making the match here, so let's assume that happens.
The Royals have a nice group of young arms coming through their system, highlighted by Brady Singer, Daniel Lynch and Jackson Kowar. They have a high-upside No. 1 prospect in Bobby Witt Jr. They have some intriguing outfield prospects in Erick Pena, Kahlil Lee and Kyle Isbel. But they could really use a safe, polished hitter who plays in the infield, and Martin is exactly that. Add in that he relies more on contact/on-base skills than power and he's an ideal fit for the Royals and their spacious ballpark.
Who would you take with the No. 1 overall pick?
McDaniel: I would take Spencer Torkelson because he's the best prospect, but it's close enough that if Austin Martin or Asa Lacy quoted a number more than $1.5 million below what I think it would take to get Torkelson, I would seriously investigate it. I think that gap will be closer to $1 million, maybe even less than that, which is why I think Torkelson will be the pick.
Schoenfield: Torkelson is the odds-on favorite and seems to be the logical fit for the Tigers. With Casey Mize, Matt Manning and Tarik Skubal about to reach the majors, where they can join Matthew Boyd and Spencer Turnbull in what could be a very good rotation in the near future, the Tigers need a bat. Now, you never draft for need, but Torkelson looks like the real deal, a guy with the upside of a Paul Goldschmidt as a power-hitting, plus-glove first baseman.
Mullen: This seems like a draft with three clear top players who profile more as very solid than future superstars. Of the Torkelson/Martin/Lacy trio, Tork's floor as a solid MLB regular with a ceiling that could be something more than that if, say, MLB keeps using the 2019 baseball jumps out enough that I'd go with him over the other two.
Who is a highly rated prospect you would have concerns about drafting with a top-10 pick?
Schoenfield: I wouldn't touch Arkansas right fielder Heston Kjerstad. As a sophomore in 2019, he had 63 strikeouts and 21 walks -- a terrible strikeout-to-walk ratio for any college hitter, let alone one considered an elite prospect. Teams have statistical models for college hitters and I have to assume that's a huge red flag, no matter how enticing the tools. Granted, he was off to a better start in 2020 (.448, seven walks, nine K's), but that came against a relatively soft nonconference schedule. As a point of comparison, consider fellow Arkansas outfielder Andrew Benintendi, who had 50 walks and 32 strikeouts as a draft-eligible sophomore in 2015.
McDaniel: I will mention Kjerstad along with Dave. It's a bit of a cheat since he's ninth in my top 10, but there's also a quality here that's a concern and is tough to correct. Kjerstad shows bat-to-ball skills, he has raw power and he's shown that he can get to power in games. He has a track record of SEC production, but it comes with strikeouts because his chase rates (swinging at pitches outside the zone) are poor. This one skill can undermine his whole offensive profile: higher strikeouts, fewer walks, in more bad counts so fewer pitches to drive for power. Kjerstad is ranked as high as he is because of his production, and the college power-hitting performer is a strong demographic, maybe the strongest in the draft, but that one characteristic of Kjerstad's offensive approach scares me.
Mullen: He's just outside of Kiley's top 10 at No. 12, but I'll go with Reid Detmers from Louisville here. Somebody is going to take the left-hander early in this draft and they are going to get a pitcher who put up great numbers in college thanks to his breaking ball and command. But Detmers has a fastball that is a couple of ticks slower than those of the other candidates to go this high in the draft, and major league baseball is such a velocity game right now that I have a hard time investing this early on a pitcher who is going to have to overcome this at every level.
Who is a sleeper prospect you think could be a first-round steal?
McDaniel: About a month ago, clubs were talking about Texas Tech righty Clayton Better in hushed tones because he vaulted into first-round consideration early in the spring and wasn't at the top of most priority lists, so some clubs didn't get the high-level in-person looks they needed. Once his TrackMan data came in and most teams realized he had the best raw stuff in the draft, they were able to look past his recent Tommy John surgery and short track record of strike throwing and focus on the raw ability and figure out what's going on between his ears on Zoom calls. He might sneak into the late teens but probably goes off the board in the 20s.
Schoenfield: Mississippi State second baseman Justin Foscue is the opposite of Kjerstad -- a player who looks great on the statistical models. For years, a general rule was second basemen shouldn't be selected in the first round, but in the past two years we've seen Keston Hiura drafted ninth overall and Nick Madrigal drafted fourth overall. If you can hit, you can hit. Kiley has Foscue going 19th to the Mets.
Mullen: Pete Crow-Armstrong fits nicely here. Likely to go in the late teens, he's a name we've been talking about for this draft class since we've been talking about this draft class. The biggest question is whether he'll develop enough power to go from solid prospect to impact player. Considering his age and some signs that he was starting to turn into that player before the 2020 season stopped, I'm willing to make that bet.
In 10 years, who will be the biggest star to come out of this draft?
McDaniel: Torkelson and Martin are the easy answers here as college hitters with tools and performance at the top of the draft. If we put them aside, and we look for a combination of elite upside and makeup that scouts think will translate well into continued improvement, I've got to go with Robert Hassell. The only thing to ding is his present power and that's the most fixable tool in today's game, particularly when there's already athleticism and hit tool present. One scout told me the last two guys with the same sort of makeup and personality to Hassell were Jarred Kelenic and Bryce Harper.
Schoenfield: I see a little Alex Bregman in Vanderbilt infielder Austin Martin -- same conference, good plate discipline, speed, not the biggest dude around. Martin could even match Bregman as a No. 2 overall pick. Now, Bregman developed more power than anyone would have projected -- he hit nine home runs at LSU in his draft season -- but Martin went from one home run as a freshman to eight as a sophomore and increased his extra-base hit rate early in 2020.
Mullen: I already told you what I like about Torkelson and Martin, so I'm going to go with Zac Veen here. There's a little bigger chance of a flop with a high school outfielder than a major college hitter, but when you watch Veen swing a bat, you can't help but think of names like Christian Yelich and Cody Bellinger. If I'm dreaming on a superstar from this class, the guy who reminds me of the past two NL MVPs is a pretty good place to start.