This was another home weekend for me, as I lucked out with seeing an Ohio State club that isn't normally a treasure trove of prospects but came in with two potential first-round picks to face a Georgia Tech program that continues to be on the upswing.
Ohio State lefty Seth Lonsway was the Saturday starter, and he made the latest jump into first-round consideration after his fastball velocity sat at 92-96 mph in the season's opening weekend, a marked improvement since he was working mostly at 87-90 this summer in the Cape Cod League. Lonsway does a lot of things that are broadly known as progressive in terms of style on the mound: He throws a 91-95 mph four-seam fastball up in the zone, he often buries a high-spin, easy plus curveball down in the zone, and he eschews traditional concepts of changeup usage, instead using a slider as his third pitch.
Lonsway pitched well against a strong Yellow Jackets lineup, striking out 12 and walking only two. His command was fine, as he was more working to an area of the zone than a specific spot, which is not unusual for a college pitcher. There is some worry that because of his aggressive delivery (including a longer stride) and unusual arm action (see below), this might not improve much.
For a comparison, here is Georgia RHP Emerson Hancock, with his arm in a pretty standard position at foot plant: elbow below his shoulder, with his hand pointing at third base.
The "perfect" answer to most teams is about one frame after foot plant, when his arm is perfectly vertical, with the ball pointing toward home plate. But look at Lonsway below:
You'll see that he does something that surprised and confused the scouts I showed this freeze frame to: the ball almost touching his cap but technically loaded in the ways the industry likes to see. What that means is that his arm is vertical (pointing up), and his hand is turned in the general direction of the plate, which are the two things teams look for, but his hand is almost touching his head, which is unusual, and that gives some clubs pause because "unusual" is seen by most teams as bad -- absent a long track record -- when it comes the throwing strikes.
Given his power approach and complete lack of a changeup, Lonsway fits best in a relief role, but he could fit almost any role on a staff, given his pitches and knowledge of how to use them. His best curveballs were 70-grade on the 20-80 scale, and his slider was average to just above. His fastball is also above average.
Some analyst types told me that they thought Lonsway would be a late first-round pick because of these quantifiable strengths, and he definitely fits where the game is going, with breaking-ball-dominant, off-speed, swing-and-miss stuff from the left side. I compare him as a prospect to former Ball State right-hander Drey Jameson, whom the Diamondbacks took 34th overall in June, with a similar command profile and three pitches that flashed plus, but likely not someone who will be a 200-inning starter. Given that it's new velocity that he's showing this spring, Lonsway fits for teams picking in the 20s or 30s in the first round if he can perform like this over the season, but he could fall a bit if he has trouble sustaining this level of performance.
Ohio State catcher Dillon Dingler was getting buzz throughout the fall as a candidate for the top couple of rounds and was getting some late first-round chatter after the season's opening weekend. He had a tough week in Atlanta, going 1-for-11 with four strikeouts and no walks while facing pitchers throwing fastballs into the mid-90s all weekend. His swing got a little bit too big, with his hands loading a little too far from his body, which disrupts timing when there's small margin for error against pro-level stuff. It's an easy fix that could be remedied as soon as next week, and that would be a good indicator of Dingler's adaptability.
The other raw tools are eye-opening, and even after a weak offensive weekend for him, most scouts I spoke with had Dingler in the top 50 overall picks. He has an easy plus arm behind the plate, defensive skills that are at least average to above across the board, sneaky good speed for a catcher who's about average underway and raw power that's above average to plus. There's enough here for him to go in the first round just on tools -- for the sake of contrast, Joey Bart's tools are a little better, but in the same ballpark -- and college catchers tend to be overdrafted anyway. A late-season surge in conference play could put Dingler in the top half of the first round.
The next-best prospect in the matchup was Georgia Tech outfielder Baron Radcliff. He has always stood out for his raw power, which grades as a 70 on the 20-80 scale, but scouts have been waiting for his in-game hit ability to come around. He showed well in a key moment against Lonsway, when he faced three straight curveballs to start an at-bat with runners on base and lined the third one to right field.
I'm told Radcliff's exit velocity numbers are among the top in the draft class, and he has also improved his agility in the outfield, upgrading from looking like a first-base-only fit last spring. With a loud spring showing improved contact and defense, Radcliff could sneak into the first round, but he fits more in the second or third round at this point.
The pitcher facing Lonsway was a 2021 prospect for the Yellow Jackets, RHP Cort Roedig. He was throwing up to 96 mph and has a slider and changeup that flashed average to a hair above. Roedig has an up-tempo, loud delivery that screams relief fit as far as his future role, and he has a three pitch mix and a sense of how to attack hitters. Expect him to go in the top five rounds next year.
Infielder Luke Waddell also fits in the top five rounds for 2020 and played shortstop for the Jackets, but he will fit best in pro ball at second base. He's a plus runner with feel for the game and contact ability, but he struggled against Lonsway's high-octane stuff from the left side, so he's outside the top couple of rounds at this point.