With the college baseball season starting Friday, now's the time to get to know the top college prospects (along with some of the top high school players) with an eye toward the 2020 MLB draft -- and beyond.
What does the top of the 2020 draft look like?
If the 2020 MLB draft were held today, it's not certain who would go No. 1, but a clear top tier of three players has emerged: Vanderbilt infielder Austin Martin, Georgia right-hander Emerson Hancock and Arizona State first baseman/outfielder Spencer Torkelson.
Martin's position isn't clear. He played mostly third base last year, but many think he fits a little better at second base, and he also played center field for Team USA last summer. This year, he's getting his first chance to play shortstop for the Commodores, and early returns from scouts still are split on his best position. But everyone agrees on Martin's advanced feel to hit, the quality of his at-bats, his shockingly high rate of hard contact and sneaky raw power that he's getting to in games more often by the day. This may lead to Ben Zobrist comps, and he's playing the same position at the same school as Dansby Swanson, but more than a few scouts think the closest comp is Alex Bregman.
Hancock still hasn't been seen much by top scouts as he missed time with arm soreness down the stretch in 2019 and took the summer and fall off. He's been nails in preseason scrimmages and has a shot to be the best college pitching prospect since Stephen Strasburg if he puts it all together this spring. At his best, Hancock is up to 97 mph with a 70-grade changeup, a plus slider and above-average command.
Torkelson is the easiest of the three to evaluate. He's done nothing but hit and hit for power, posting bonkers numbers in both of his seasons in Tempe and in the summers for Team USA. The closest comp is first baseman Andrew Vaughn, who was the third overall pick by the White Sox last summer and who, like Torkelson, played in the Pac-12 (at Cal). They're pretty similar, though most scouts I've spoken with slightly prefer Torkelson's long-term outlook. While Martin's position and Hancock's health should greatly affect their draft stock, Torkelson is so well known and has been so thoroughly scouted, his position is unlikely to change much this spring, barring a total disaster.
One other amateur player is on that tier -- and he's another SEC talent, Vanderbilt sophomore right-hander Kumar Rocker. He's eligible for the 2021 draft and is the early favorite to go first; if he were in the 2020 draft, he'd be in this top tier as well, all of them easy top-100 prospects the day they enter pro baseball. Rocker was a mid-first-round pick in high school who priced himself out of signing, but he took a big step forward in his freshman year in terms of consistency. He has front-line starter potential.
Two other prospects are leading candidates to break into this top tier for 2020: New Mexico State second baseman Nick Gonzales and Spruce Creek HS (Florida) center fielder Zac Veen. Gonzales is the probably the third-best offensive threat in the draft behind Torkelson and Martin, but it's close and he plays a passable second base, leading to Keston Hiura comparisons. Veen has the highest upside of a deep group of prep outfielders; it's a Christian Yelich starter kit with projected plus power, speed and pitch selection to go with a sweet lefty swing.
For the 2021 draft, there are also two more names to keep an eye on, once again with a distinct southeastern flavor: Vanderbilt freshman Jack Leiter and Winder-Barrow HS (Georgia) infielder Brady House. Leiter, son of former big leaguer Al Leiter, will be eligible in 2021 as a sophomore because he'll turn 21 before the draft; he is into the mid-90's and has an easy plus curveball. House is a chiseled 6-foot-3, 200-pounder with plus raw power and bat speed, surprisingly good athleticism and defensive ability at shortstop, to go with mid-90's heat on the mound.
Quality depth in the SEC
The 2020 draft class is seen as especially strong and deep, particularly noteworthy for the number of players with a track record at name-brand schools, none more so than in the SEC.
After the players listed above, other strong candidates for the 2020 first/supplemental rounds (the first day of the draft) include (deep breath): Arkansas outfielder Heston Kjerstad and shortstop Casey Martin; Mississippi State right-hander J.T. Ginn, shortstop Jordan Westburg and second baseman Justin Foscue; Texas A&M left-hander Asa Lacy and outfielder Zach DeLoach; LSU right-hander Cole Henry and outfielder Daniel Cabrera; Tennessee left-hander Garrett Crochet and outfielder Alerick Soularie; Vanderbilt left-handers Jake Eder and Hugh Fisher (out for the year with Tommy John surgery); Florida right-handers Tommy Mace and Jack Leftwich; Auburn right-hander Tanner Burns; South Carolina right-hander Carmen Mlodzinski; Georgia right-hander Cole Wilcox; Missouri right-hander Ian Bedell and Ole Miss third baseman Tyler Keenan.
That gives 12 of the 16 teams in the conference a chance to have a top-50 overall pick, and most of those teams have multiple candidates. The conference also figures to be strong in the 2021 draft, with Florida outfielder Jud Fabian behind the two aforementioned Vanderbilt prospects, and the incoming freshman class (mostly 2022-eligible prospects) was even better than usual with anywhere from eight to 15 prospects who would be offered seven figures if draft eligible today, led by Leiter, Vanderbilt left-hander/first baseman Spencer Jones and Florida left-hander Hunter Barco. The biggest jumps in the fall from newcomers came from Georgia right-hander Jonathan Cannon and Alabama left-hander Connor Prielipp, who went from mid-tier prep follows to top-tier pro prospects between 2019 draft day and their first official college game. It's an embarrassment of riches for a conference that consistently has been the most talent-laden for years.
The ACC is (a distant) second
While the best non-SEC prospect (Torkelson) is in the Pac-12, the ACC is the second-best conference in terms of prospect power. Miami is back, leading the way with right-handers Chris McMahon and Slade Cecconi, along with shortstop Freddy Zamora as possibilities for the first two rounds in 2020. Miami also has a couple of prospects projected to go a round or two later in first baseman Alex Toral and third baseman Raymond Gil, along with a potential 2021 first-rounder in catcher Adrian Del Castillo. The team took a blow Wednesday night when projected late first-rounder and team leader Zamora was seriously injured. A source confirmed he's out for the season after he reportedly suffered a torn ACL.
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Other projected 2020 first-rounders in the ACC include North Carolina State catcher Patrick Bailey, Florida State right-hander C.J. Van Eyk and Louisville left-hander Reid Detmers. Just outside of that group is Virginia left-hander Andrew Abbott and Notre Dame right-hander Joe Boyle, who hits 100 mph on his fastball in most of his outings.
There's also a strong group of potential first-rounders for the 2021 draft: Florida State outfielder Robby Martin, Louisville third baseman Alex Binelas, Clemson right-hander Davis Sharpe and Virginia right-hander Mike Vasil. The incoming freshman class is also strong, bolstered by left-hander Nate Savino, the top prospect for the 2022 draft. Savino was a first-round quality prep prospect who skipped the 2020 draft process to early enroll at Virginia. Georgia Tech has a particularly strong freshman class, led by 6-foot-6, 245-pound right-hander Zach Maxwell, who is up to 98 mph on his fastball and has a high-spin curveball.
Other prep stars to monitor
Behind Veen, there isn't much consensus among the other top prep bats, so they'll jockey for position over the coming months. West Allegheny HS (Pennsylvania) outfielder Austin Hendrick, Independence HS (Tennessee) outfielder Robert Hassell, Lake Mary HS (Florida) Dylan Crews, Decatur HS (Georgia) third baseman Jordan Walker and Turlock HS (California) catcher Tyler Soderstrom are at the head of the class. A couple others firmly in the first-round conversation include Mount Carmel HS (Illinois) shortstop Ed Howard, Harvard Westlake HS (California) center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong and another 2021 reclassification, DeSoto Central HS (Mississippi) infielder Blaze Jordan.
Three prep right-handers have a good shot for the top half of the first round in 2020: Jared Kelly of Refugio HS (Texas), Mick Abel of Jesuit HS (Oregon), and a recent reclassified prospect from the 2021 class, Nick Bitsko of Central Bucks East HS (Pennsylvania). All three are into the mid-90's on their fastball in almost every outing and offer a plus secondary pitch to go with the tools to grow into a starting role, but prep right-handers are the most volatile demographic in the draft. Savino and fellow left-hander Dax Fulton of Mustang HS (Oklahoma) were both looking like they'd be in this group, but Savino enrolled early and Fulton had Tommy John surgery after the summer showcase season, making him a likely overlooked target for clubs with extra picks beyond the first round.
Looking ahead to 2021, behind House are two prospects who have stood out in summer events facing older peers: shortstop Luke Leto of Portage Central HS (Michigan) and outfielder Braylon Bishop of Texarkana HS (Arkansas). The 2022 high school class is still a long way off and is a bit hazy, with about a half dozen prospects with a legit case to be the group's top prospect.