The week before major colleges begin regular-season play (which starts on Friday) is always prime time for top junior colleges to be blanketed by scouts. This year, the premiere event was a collection of the top JCs matching up in the panhandle of Florida. The teams that were most interesting to scouts (five scouting directors and dozens of other scouts monitored the top games) had multiple prospects who are candidates to be picked in the top two rounds of the MLB draft, all of them committed to SEC schools.
Walters State RHP Ben Joyce was the big winner of the weekend. Buzz leading into the event was that Joyce had hit 100 mph in the fall and was committed to Tennessee, but was a one-pitch, arm-strength type who lacked secondary skills. He redshirted last year due to a stress fracture in his elbow that didn't require surgery but cost him his 2019 season. He's a late bloomer who didn't pitch much in high school.
The velocity lived up to expectations, as Joyce sat at 95-96 in his first inning, holding that speed for all three innings, but his secondary stuff was surprisingly good. He relied on an 82-86 mph changeup that flashed plus one time (a strikeout out of Andre Tarver, the best hitting prospect of the weekend) and was consistently above average, along with a 73-75 mph curveball that he struggled a bit to land, but showed the potential to be average to a tick above.
Joyce's strike throwing wasn't bad and while his arm action is short, similar to Jason Motte's, there's enough here to let Joyce build his innings in longer outings and see whether he can start. There is a variety of opinions on his draft stock: Joyce could go in the second round if he matches this performance all spring, but the third or fourth round is more realistic for now, given the short track record and injury history.
The top name entering the weekend was Northwest Florida JC RHP Beck Way. He's committed to LSU and also took an unusual path to this point, as a low-profile Pennsylvania prep arm that relieved as a freshman at Division 2 Belmont Abbey, then broke out in the Cape Cod League before heading to JC, and possibly LSU next spring. He's a redshirt sophomore who turns 21 in August, so he's on the same time frame as four-year college pitchers, but he's still pretty slightly built, so there's projection left in his 6-foot-4-inch frame.
Way opened at 92-94 with above-average life (but was a few ticks lower as the game wore on), an above-average changeup that he used a lot at 83-84 mph and a slurve that flashed above average at times but was inconsistent, at 80-82 mph. He has a three-quarters arm slot and hand position that allows him to get running life to his arm side with a four-seam grip, as the four seams are running closer to horizontal than with a more upright arm slot (the preferred choice among progressive MLB clubs). This allows Way to more easily get the desired horizontal spin axis on his changeup to create sink, but the sinker/slider/changeup repertoire is more of a pitch-to-contact combination at a time when teams prefer swing-and-miss style stuff, all things being equal.
With a longer arm stroke, some effort and frequently over-striding to the plate (which causes him to land on his heel and spin off to first base), Way doesn't have the consistency to his execution yet. Being a solid athlete, having projection to add muscle and showing starter elements is enough to envision a third or fourth starter in the big leagues, but there's still a good bit of work ahead for someone who will be compared to SEC arms with more polish and a track record against top competition. Way is in the same range as Joyce, but with a bit less variance and a similarly short track record, slotting between the second and fourth rounds right now. The combination of Way's stuff and polish remind me of RHP Ryan Feltner, the Rockies' 2018 fourth-rounder out of Ohio State who slid a bit due to an uneven draft year.
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San Jacinto LHP Mitchell Parker (a Kentucky commit) was the third JC arm with top-two-round potential on display over the weekend. He opened at 91-94 mph in the first inning, settling in at 90-91 toward the end of his outing. He has the high arm slot, four-seam fastball grip and overhand curveball combination that's the opposite of Beck Way, and is more likely to induce swing-and-misses against advanced hitters. Parker knew where and when to locate his pitches (fastball up, above-average curveball tunneling after it, average-flashing changeup to keep hitters off the main two weapons) and executed well deep into the game. Parker has lower variance in terms of draft stock, since a contact-averse fastball/breaker lefty with command will work in any role in pro ball. He's also in that second- to fourth-round area at this point.
Fellow San Jacinto LHP Luke Little (a South Carolina commit) was the fourth arm of interest for the weekend (6-foot-8, up to 99 mph, solid breaking ball, 30-grade control), but he was a late scratch due to a tight back. Some scouts could see Little going as high as the second round with a strong spring and others have little confidence he'll put it all together anytime soon. Chipola OF Andre Tarver has some feel to hit and raw pop and is expected to sign with a pro club this year; he fits in the $125,000 to $250,000 bonus area, anywhere outside the top three rounds. Northwest Florida OF J.D. Thompson is a North Carolina commit and has a little more athleticism, projection and upside, but less polish than Tarver. He also has similar draft stock but is a threat to go to Chapel Hill.
Due to snow in the Atlanta area, a scrimmage for Georgia was moved from Saturday to Sunday, so I was able to check out one of the best pitching staffs in the country. Possible No. 1 overall pick RHP Emerson Hancock and breakout freshman RHP Jonathan Cannon didn't pitch (I should be seeing both of them soon), but the rest of the Bulldogs' arms of note did.
Draft-eligible sophomore RHP Cole Wilcox was the main event here and will be a tough nut for scouts to crack this year. He was a first-round talent in high school in 2018 due to a workhorse frame, solid athleticism, above-average control, a heater up to 98 mph, a plus changeup he'd throw in any count and enough of a breaking ball to be a starter. His delivery needed some work and his fastball was a little more hittable than you'd like, but these things seemed fixable, while the raw tools were all there.
As a freshman at Georgia, Wilcox was used in relief and developed some bad habits typical of his role. He all but shelved his changeup and became a bull in a china shop, alternating mid-to-upper-90s heaters (he hit 100 many times) and sliders intended for a chase. It worked reasonably well, but he regressed in terms of prospect status as none of the core issues was completely solved and others were raised.
In 2020, Wilcox is expected to be the Saturday starter and is seen as a late-first-round talent, with a shot to get into the top of the first round if he can combine the best elements he's shown in the last two years. He looked similar to the reliever version of himself (93-96, above to plus life, above-average 84-86 mph slider, a little too much contact allowed) for the first two innings of his scrimmage outing, but the changeup started coming out in the third and fourth innings and was mostly a 50- or 55-grade pitch, showing good progress. I couldn't feel my fingers (it was 36 degrees when the scrimmage started), so it's reasonable to expect improvement with a feel pitch as the season progresses. There's been chatter among scouts that Wilcox will return to school in 2021 if he doesn't get top-15 pick money, which will require continued progress.
The next-best draft-eligible arm on the Bulldogs is lefty reliever Ryan Webb, who sat at 92-94, working in a solid average curveball, usable changeup and solid feel. He looks a little looser than last year and is in play in the fourth to sixth rounds. Junior LHP C.J. Smith was up to 93 at times last year, but was 86-88 last weekend, with his feel and changeup his best qualities. Freshman righties Michael Polk (90-92 for me, but had been 93-95 in the fall) and Will Childers (92-93, was up to 96 in the fall) both looked notably improved since high school, showing three-pitch mixes and early-round potential, along with enviable depth for Georgia that will come in handy for the postseason.