University of Georgia right-hander Emerson Hancock was a consensus top-three prospect for the 2020 MLB draft coming into Friday's start, which ended up being the second worst of his college career statistically, the worst if you consider the competition: 4 IP, 9 H, 6 R at home against Richmond.
It started as expected, with Hancock's fastball sitting in the 94-96 mph range and hitting 97 mph in the first couple of innings, mixing in an above-average slider in the mid-90s and bringing out his plus changeup in the second. There also was an early walk and a hit batter, an infield hit and a couple of bloopers you could chalk up to bad luck. But in the fourth inning, he gave up back-to-back homers on center-cut mistake pitches, leading to the early exit.
Hancock's execution was off all night and his body language wasn't fantastic, but the stuff was close enough to expectation. He didn't really dip below 93 mph, and while his changeup wasn't a 70-grade pitch very often, it was plus multiple times. It's generally not a good idea for amateur pitchers having execution issues to try to throw both a slider and a curveball, but Hancock doesn't normally have execution issues.
Ultimately, it was just one start, and scouts have been raving about Hancock as he's gotten ramped back up after taking the summer and fall off. One scout said he saw a 70 changeup, 60 slider and steady mid-90s fastball to go with starter command in one of his preseason outings. A couple others agreed that when Hancock puts it all together, he may be the best pitching prospect since Stephen Strasburg, better even than 2018 No. 1 pick Casey Mize of the Tigers due to his frame, ease of operation and less worrisome medical record. I'll be back for another look at Hancock once it's clear he has navigated past this hiccup.
I mentioned Georgia lefty Ryan Webb in last week's prospects breakdown and I saw him again in relief of Hancock. Not many expected Webb would throw more innings (five) than Hancock, and even fewer figured Webb would strike out 11 and walk none. Webb's stuff was about the same as in the preseason outing I wrote about, with the command and execution of his four-pitch mix a bit sharper. He's still a fourth- to fifth-round prospect, but could climb a bit if he can thrive in longer outings, especially if he can snatch a Sunday starter gig for the Bulldogs.
Power bats on display
The other games I saw last weekend were mostly to catch some power bats: Georgia prepsters Jordan Walker and Corey Collins and University of Cincinnati outfielder Joey Wiemer.
Walker (Duke commit) was one of the more celebrated prep prospects in the 2020 class on the summer showcase circuit. In the summer, he showed the tools for third base, easy plus raw power and enough contact against good pitching to indicate he could reach his upside. That's the groundwork for a first-round pick, but there are still some holes. Walker hit a homer in his first at-bat Friday at the Georgia Dugout Club Tournament and continued to put the ball in play in the game I saw Saturday. He had some trouble with decent breaking stuff over the weekend and his lateral mobility in the infield (he plays shortstop for his high school team) looks to have regressed a bit.
ESPN Daily Newsletter: Sign up now!
This is a dangerous spot for Walker: If he's a high-ceiling hitter but has issues making contact against good breaking stuff and has marginal defensive value, he could slip into the second round. He reminded me a bit of Yankees prospect Dermis Garcia, who got a $3.2 million bonus at age 16, and has mostly hit homers, struck out and played first base in pro ball. There's plenty of time for Walker to rebound before draft day.
Collins (Georgia commit) was out most of the showcase season with an arm injury and isn't catching full time yet, so there isn't a lot of draft buzz on him. I ran into him last year when he matched up with Marlins second-rounder Nasim Nunez and saw enough in that game and in Saturday's matchup to see Collins going in the top two rounds. Collins had improved his physique and defensive ability when I saw him last year and the athleticism looked the same, playing first base this weekend. There's every reason to believe his plus arm still plays and in both regular season games I've seen of Collins, he's gone deep to the opposite field against solid pitching (on Saturday it was vs. Vanderbilt commit RHP Miles Garrett, working 88-91 mph).
Collins is a big kid with a very limited hand load and plus raw power generated from a strength-based swing. Clubs like to use top picks on looser, twitchy, up-the-middle type bats, as there's margin for error in a number of ways, but Collins checks almost all of the boxes for this type of prospect. As a hitter, he reminds me of 2019 Reds third-rounder infielder Tyler Callihan (signed for a top-50 pick, overslot bonus), and Collins has more defensive value and raw strength. There's upside into the late first round for Collins if he can show his chops behind the plate in his return to the position in the coming weeks.
Wiemer had a coming-out party on the Cape this summer, primarily for his tools and frame, but he hasn't really produced like a top pick in college yet. He didn't have a loud day Sunday at Kennesaw State (strikeout, walk, groundout, infield single, end-of-the-bat ground ball double) but still showed first-round tools. Wiemer got Hunter Pence comps on the Cape for his 6-foot-5-inch, 215-pound frame, his loud, somewhat unorthodox swing, quirky look (a blond mullet in Wiemer's case) and high-energy style.
In addition, Wiemer has plus raw power, above-average speed underway and an above-average arm that lets him contribute as a reliever as well. His swing frequently gets out of control, with a big leg kick and varying stride lengths that leave him susceptible to any wrinkles. He's a late bloomer from Michigan, has everyday tools and good makeup by all accounts, so even with another mediocre stat line (by top prospect standards) in 2020, he could go in the second half of the second round; by then there aren't many potential everyday players who have made contact with a wood bat left on the board.
Lastly, Georgia prep lefty Jackson Phipps (South Carolina commit) was throwing on a field adjacent to Walker's game, and scouts were shuttling back and forth to get looks at both. He's listed at 6-5, 210 and has the athleticism and projection to be an early-round pick, along with three pitches that all grade average to a tick better. He had trouble keeping the ball down at 89-92 mph and didn't use his changeup much, but all the elements are there. Given the multiyear history and scouts that will pile in to see the top Georgia high schools, Phipps could sneak into the top couple of rounds with a half dozen good starts at the right time, but based on what I saw he's more of a college guy. He won't get offered enough to pass up an SEC school.