We were reminded again this week how the smallest of sample sizes can still effect enormous change, even when Major League Baseball is cemented in analytics, even when mathematical reason suggests that one play or one game shouldn't dramatically sway decisions. Consider how the events over the past 10 weeks played out, improbably.
On Oct. 1, the Washington Nationals were four outs away from being eliminated in the National League wild-card game. Working to protect a 3-1 lead, Milwaukee's Josh Hader struck out two of the first three hitters he faced in the bottom of the eighth inning. But then Ryan Zimmerman singled, Anthony Rendon walked and Juan Soto pulled a hit to right field -- and the ball rolled under the glove of the Brewers' Trent Grisham. The Nationals led 4-3 -- and survived.
Eight days later, the Dodgers led Washington 3-1 in the top of the eighth inning, six outs from winning the deciding Game 5 in the teams' division series. But Rendon homered off Clayton Kershaw, Soto followed with another homer, and two innings later, Howie Kendrick blasted a grand slam. The Nationals survived, again.
In Game 7 of the World Series, Houston led 2-0, eight outs away from a title. But Rendon homered off Zack Greinke, Soto walked -- yes, those guys again -- before Kendrick whistled a low line drive down the right-field line. The ball carried over the wall by five feet or so, ricocheting off the middle of the screen at the base of the foul pole.
Later, as the Nationals celebrated their championship, Houston manager A.J. Hinch spoke with reporters about his pivotal choices that didn't work out. "It's a decision I'll have to live with," he said. "I'll think about it."
Stephen Strasburg pitched brilliantly and was named the Most Valuable Player of the World Series, the first championship by a Washington baseball team in almost 100 years, and no longer was Strasburg merely an excellent and valuable pitcher, he was part of an enduring legacy. No matter what happens with the Nationals over the next half-century, through great and bad times, invites will forever be issued to Strasburg, Max Scherzer, Rendon and Soto to throw out first pitches, to wave to the fans, and they will be cheered.
If the Nats had failed to come back against the Brewers -- if Grisham fields Soto's hit cleanly, perhaps -- everything would've been different. If they hadn't come back against the Dodgers, or if Kendrick's line drive landed three feet to the right, the context would've been different.
But, as some agents mused this week, Strasburg was set up perfectly for free agency. At the outset of the offseason, some evaluators guessed that Strasburg would opt out of his contract with the Nationals (which had four years, $100 million left on it) and perhaps negotiate a one- or two-year extension for something in the range of $150-175 million total. That was before he was Stephen Strasburg, World Series MVP, which was akin to the difference between being a law school graduate and being a product of Yale Law School.
The Nationals' ownership stunned even folks in its own baseball operations department by negotiating a $245 million deal to keep Strasburg, given the pitcher's age (31) and Tommy John history. But that's the going rate of a championship pitcher. And because agent Scott Boras negotiated $245 million for Strasburg, that altered what was possible for another of his clients, Gerrit Cole, who is younger than Strasburg by two years and perhaps even more dominant. In the middle of last summer, one MLB employee mentioned the early suggestions of a $300 million contract for a pitcher, and he laughed it off as "crazy talk."
After everything that happened, however -- after Cole's exceptional October performance, the Nationals' success and Strasburg's record-setting deal for a starting pitcher -- Boras could plaintively ask Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner for a ninth year in his offer to Cole, and the talk of a nine-year deal for a starting pitcher was not crazy, but seemingly reasonable. And just 11 years after CC Sabathia signed a $161 million contract to obliterate the prior record for a starting pitcher, Cole agreed to a $324 million deal that more than doubled what Sabathia got -- and $107 million more than David Price's $217 contract with Boston, which had been the industry standard as December began.
Because the Angels missed out on Cole, they pushed even harder for Rendon, the World Series hero, and doled out a seven-year, $245 million deal. He'll get $35 million annually, more than Nolan Arenado, whose eight-year, $260 million contract pays him $32.5 million per year.
Cole, Strasburg and Rendon got their huge paydays because they are among the greatest players of their time, and in the end, their leverage was augmented perfectly by a handful of plays in October.
• At a commission rate of 5%, Boras' take on the contracts for Cole, Strasburg and Rendon will be about $44 million. Last weekend, Marvin Miller was rightly voted into the Baseball Hall of Fame. Miller wasn't really a baseball guy looking out for what was good for the sport; rather, he was an economist who was exceptional in representing the interests of his clients, of galvanizing the group he worked for, and through those efforts, he had a tremendous impact on the game. The free agency system that Miller fought for generated a boon of interest in the sport, and baseball revenues have grown exponentially ever since. Whether you liked Miller or not -- and there have been plenty of folks in both camps -- his impact on the sport is undeniable.
The same can be said of Boras. He has been a polarizing figure in his time in baseball, but given his long track record of record-setting deals and loophole exposure, Boras' place in baseball history is undeniable. Like Miller, he should one day be considered for the Hall.
• The replay of Kris Bryant making the last play of the Cubs' clinching victory in the 2016 World Series will last as long as Chicago does, with Bryant seemingly fighting a grin as he threw the ball across the infield to teammate and friend Anthony Rizzo, who raised his arms in celebration before shoving the ball into his back pocket. Bryant evolved from a figure of hope for Cubs fans to part of a dream realized, and then into a Most Valuable Player. For casual Chicago fans, the notion of trading Bryant must be mind-boggling.
But this is where the Cubs are -- where they will be, in the eyes of rival executives -- and in fact, the return that Theo Epstein is offered for Bryant might be markedly less than what folks outside the industry would expect. Bryant is coming off a bounce-back season for the Cubs, in which he batted .282, generated an on-base percentage of .382 and hit 31 homers.
Rival evaluators have their concerns, however, starting with his salary. Bryant, who turns 28 next month, is projected to make about $18.5 million through arbitration, according to the website MLBTradeRumors.com, and that will set him up for an award in the range of $25 million to $30 million in 2021. He is represented by Boras, who almost always takes his clients into free agency, so any team that acquires Bryant would view him as an expensive, short-time employee.
And some team analysts who have dug deep into the numbers see some regression in his performance -- in his defense at third base, for starters, and in the impact of his baserunning. Among 135 hitters who qualified for the batting title, Bryant ranked 110th in the rate of hard-hit balls.
What could work to the Cubs' advantage is that the teams in need of an impact third baseman like Bryant is greater than the number of available high-impact players at the spot. Once Josh Donaldson decides among offers from the Braves, Nationals and others, then Bryant could become the most coveted third base option. But his trade value is mitigated, in the eyes of rival evaluators, by his expected salary, and by the concern over giving up a big package of players for someone who is likely to walk away as a free agent.
• The Indians' talks with the Dodgers about Francisco Lindor are said to be preliminary in nature, so far. A day will come when Cleveland will need to move Lindor, who has turned down overtures on a long-term deal and is now two years away from reaching free agency. A trade of Lindor is bound to be unpopular in Cleveland, but it does appear as if the Indians will pull a big return for the shortstop, given that both the Dodgers and the Yankees may be in play. As it stands now, the Yankees will use Gleyber Torres at short at the outset of the 2020 season but would obviously shift him back to second if they can grab Lindor next July.
• Dustin Pedroia will probably be a month or two behind other players as spring training begins, as he tries, again, to come back from the knee troubles he has had since Manny Machado slid into the side of his leg in April 2017. Pedroia, 36, has played less than 100 games since that incident -- three in 2018, and six in 2019 -- but is trying to work his way back. He is under contract for the next two seasons, at $13 million in 2020 and $12 million in 2021.
• There is a lot of surprise in the industry that the Rangers didn't win the bidding for Rendon, but what agents heard from the Texas leadership is that the team ownership is just not comfortable with executing long, expensive deals. Corey Kluber, set to come over from Cleveland pending a physical, is under contract only through 2021, and that's a club option.
• Incoming Mets owner Steve Cohen is getting up to speed on the team's situation: Sources say Cohen has asked around about the work of the Mets' current front office, collecting opinions. Under the agreement announced by the team last week, Fred and Jeff Wilpon will retain their titles for the next five years. Typically, however, an incoming owner will have increasing influence as the date of their takeover draws near, and some rival executives believe that the Mets' aggressiveness before next summer's trade deadline and the possible pursuit of Mookie Betts in free agency could serve as barometers for how much input Cohen has.
• A day after Rendon became part of the Angels' roster, Joe Maddon intended to start drawing out possible lineups for what might become one of the majors' best. Last year, the Angels finished 15th in the majors in runs scored, but with Rendon plugged into the middle of the group, it'll look very different. In Maddon's time with the Cubs, he juggled the batting order, sometimes inserting Bryant or Rizzo into the leadoff spot for a different look -- and perhaps to ensure that his best hitters had the best chance of getting the most plate appearances on a given day.
In that vein, Maddon could put Mike Trout in the leadoff spot, with the left-handed-hitting Shohei Ohtani and righty Rendon following, meaning that opposing managers could not call on a reliever for a three-batter appearance without being at a disadvantage for at least one matchup. Maddon also could keep Trout in the second spot in his lineup, where he has most often hit in recent years, to have a better shot at scoring additional runs when Trout generates an extra-base hit. Perhaps David Fletcher could lead off, with Trout, Ohtani and Rendon following 2-3-4.
Or maybe Maddon will opt to hit Ohtani behind Rendon, forcing opposing teams to pitch to Rendon -- just as the presence of Soto behind Rendon forced opponents to pitch to the third baseman in October.
The Angels are expected to promote star prospect Jo Adell into the big leagues for the first time in 2020. While it seems more likely that Adell -- who turns 21 in April -- will hit in the bottom third of the lineup early in the season as he gets settled in, Maddon also could bat Adell in front of Trout at some point to increase the likelihood he sees fastballs.
Whatever the composition of the lineup, the Angels' production should improve; the team should be more competitive. The Astros finished 35 games ahead of the Angels, but Houston has lost Cole and could face major discipline after the sign-stealing investigation is concluded, and the Angels have added Rendon and figure to sign at least one veteran starting pitcher, perhaps closing the gap in the AL West.
Trout, after the acquisition of Rendon: "Excited to get this thing going."