SAN DIEGO -- Gerrit Cole was the top free-agent starter this winter, courted by multiple large-market contenders, but I don't think anyone forecast a record-setting, nine-year, $324 million contract, the longest deal and the highest average annual value ever given to a pitcher. Cole is a clear No. 1 starter for anyone, and the New York Yankees don't have an incumbent in that role, so he fits them perfectly, making them stronger favorites to win the American League East in 2020 and marginally improving their odds of playoff success as well. But, whoa boy, did you hear about the nine years?
Cole was the best pitcher in the American League in 2019. If I'd had an AL Cy Young ballot, I would have listed him first. He led the AL in fWAR at 7.4, in ERA at 2.50, in FIP at 2.64 and in strikeout rate at 39.9%; he was sixth among starters in walk rate at 5.9%, and he was fourth in innings pitched at 212⅓, making 33 starts.
He looked superhuman in October because he was superhuman all season: His fastball was the most valuable in the majors this year, according to FanGraphs, and his slider was in the top 10. And once upon a time, he had a plus-plus changeup, but he has largely set it aside in favor of his fastball, slider and average curveball. After the Houston Astros acquired him in trade from the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2018, they got him to throw his four-seamer more up in or just above the zone, and the shift made his fastball far more effective and even helped his slider fool more hitters as he could change eye levels more easily between the two offerings.
For 2020, Cole makes the Yankees a good five or six wins better, assuming he throws a full season's worth of innings. He is replacing CC Sabathia and some fringe starters who were worth just a shade above replacement level, and now those fringe guys will start only if there's an injury or another unexpected opening in the rotation. The Yankees can roll out Cole, James Paxton and Masahiro Tanaka as their front three; and then Domingo German (when back from his suspension for domestic violence, which, given the Yankees' history, won't affect their willingness to use him), Luis Severino (if healthy) or Jordan Montgomery (if healthy) can fill the final two spots. That's the kind of rotation depth they haven't had in some time, and the top three are very strong, lining up well with every other AL contender at this point.
The issue is the contract's sheer size, not that Yankees fans should care right now. This is an overpayment in the long term to make the team better immediately. Nobody can project what a pitcher is going to do six to nine years in the future or even just how healthy he'll be. Cole, 29, could be like so many hard throwers who lose their velocity as they age. Or he could be invulnerable like his former teammate Justin Verlander, still throwing in the upper 90s at age 36.
I think Cole's chances of holding up when his velocity slides are good -- because he has two very good secondary pitches that will allow him to work by changing speeds and fooling hitters, and because his control is already plus. But that isn't a protection against catastrophic injury, and one of the few things we know about pitcher injuries is that throwing really hard increases your risk. The probability of the Yankees paying Cole $36 million for a season in which he doesn't pitch or pitches far below that level due to injury or declining stuff is pretty high. The probability of it happening twice is still well above nil.
They're accepting that risk to get the guy who was the best pitcher in the American League in 2019 on their staff in 2020 and 2021. If it gets them a World Series title, they'll probably say it's worth the cost.
I don't know what the Los Angeles Angels do now after missing out on Cole, other than perhaps throw all their money at third baseman Anthony Rendon and then try to patch their pitching staff. Their greatest need was a high-end starter, and the top three free-agent starters have all signed with other teams. Signing Rendon is the best move they can make at the moment, as they're a large-market team with the best player in the sport and one playoff appearance in the past 10 seasons.
The Angels should do this, but they'll still have to fix their rotation. They didn't have a single pitcher make 20 starts for them last season, and their only acquisition so far, Dylan Bundy, made 30 starts last season but with a 4.79 ERA/4.73 FIP. They have to improve their pitching to contend, and the best options to do so are already off the table.