SAN DIEGO -- With the money and contract lengths we've seen this winter, it's dead shocking to me that Didi Gregorius, a four-win player (via WAR) in both 2017 and 2018 who struggled last year coming off Tommy John surgery, ended up with a one-year, $14 million deal that pays him like he is half the man he used to be. The Philadelphia Phillies should be overjoyed, as they could have an elite defensive keystone combination and still have money left over to continue to boost their pitching staff.
Gregorius wasn't himself last year, and there's the rub: The Phillies are risking the possibility that Gregorius, who will turn 30 in February, doesn't turn back into that player. I don't think the odds of that are very high, since so much of his value was in his glove, and there is no reason why he would lose his fielding prowess -- his range or his hands -- to surgery to the elbow of his throwing arm.
I do think that he'll see his power drop off outside of Yankee Stadium. He averaged 24 homers a year for the New York Yankees and clearly had a few extras per year as a left-handed hitter in a stadium where it's about 20 feet (kidding!) down the right-field line, with 58% of his homers in the Bronx in those three years. Still, at 15 homers a year, if his defense is back he easily could be a three-win player for the Phillies, and that's not meant to be an optimistic scenario.
The Phillies had previously non-tendered Cesar Hernandez, a mediocre defender at second who has a great approach and some value on the bases, but by doing so might have just upgraded at two positions. Gregorius is a better defensive shortstop than Jean Segura, who now moves to his left or right in the infield. If Segura goes to third base, Scott Kingery, who was a 70 defender at second base in the minors, could become the everyday second baseman, and the Phillies would have an argument for the best middle-infield combo in baseball (speaking just of defense).
That requires Segura to play an adequate third base, a position he has never played in pro ball, so while there's no reason he can't handle it -- his weakness at short was a lack of lateral range, not really an issue at third -- the Phillies won't know until they see him there. Kingery's arm doesn't play at third, so Segura taking to the hot corner is the best outcome, while their top hitting prospect, third baseman Alec Bohm, starts in Triple-A and continues to work on his defense, as his bat isn't too far from ready.
I was surprised the Yankees didn't make Gregorius a qualifying offer to get the draft pick. But it appears that Brian Cashman read the market for Gregorius correctly, as Gregorius signed a deal that was worse than he would have gotten had he received and accepted the QO. The Yankees really didn't have a place to play Gregorius had he returned, with Gleyber Torres their everyday shortstop going forward and DJ LeMahieu now the incumbent at second. If Gregorius' agent knew this was the market, he might have taken the Yankees' offer had they made one.
If you're a team with money to spend and the need for a shortstop, though, best of luck, as there probably isn't an everyday option left on the market. Jose Iglesias is a defensive wizard, but his bat is light for regular duty. All other options I can see are former shortstops who moved to other positions because they couldn't play it well enough. The Cleveland Indians say they don't want to discuss Francisco Lindor in trades, but the market for his services might be pretty hot right now.
The San Francisco Giants made a pair of bold moves on Tuesday in acquiring the Los Angeles Angels' first-round pick from 2019, Will Wilson, along with Zack Cozart's contract in one trade, then signing Kevin Gausman, himself a former top-five overall pick, to a one-year contract in a separate transaction. Both are moves aimed at the longer term for a club that is rebuilding and trying to accelerate the process, although the Giants go about it in different ways.
Wilson was the 15th overall pick just six months ago, off a career-best season for North Carolina State that saw him hit .339/.429/.665. He went to short-season Orem for his summer debut, hitting .275/.328/.439 with a 23% strikeout rate, worse than I would expect for a major-conference star playing in the Pioneer League, which is one level above the complex leagues, in a decent hitters' park. That said, the performance was pretty valuable: He signed for a $3.4 million bonus in June, but the Giants just took on $12 million in Cozart's contract to essentially buy Wilson's rights.
Wilson was a shortstop in college and played about two-thirds of his games for Orem at short, with the remainder at second base, which is more likely his long-term position. He has plus bat speed and has shown enough power over the past two years to project to hit enough home runs to profile as a regular at second, although his swing looks slightly grooved and there might be a lot of swing-and-miss unless that changes.
As a polished player from a major conference, Wilson should be major league-ready by the end of 2021, but I'd like to see him show adequate contact rates in High-A this year to get a better gauge on how advanced his bat is or if that swing issue is any issue at all.
Cozart's tenure with the Angels was marred by injuries and awful performances. He was worth 0.7 wins below replacement level in 360 PA over two seasons, so he didn't play much, but when he did play, he played really poorly. His walk year with the Cincinnati Reds was obviously a fluke. But if he is healthy enough to play, there's some nonzero chance he can go back to playing above-average defense with a little bit of pop and patience -- although right now, the Giants don't have a need for him at short or third, and I'd rather see them play Mauricio Dubon regularly at second base than try to resurrect Cozart.
The Angels get salary relief at the cost of one of their top five prospects. If I were an Angels fan, I'd be hoping this is a precursor to signing one of the big free agents left on the market -- likely third baseman Anthony Rendon, who would still make them quite a bit better even though their greatest need is on the mound. Either way, you don't sell off a prospect's rights unless you're going to reallocate that money to the major league roster, not in this cash-flush MLB environment.
The Giants also signed right-hander Gausman, who has bounced through three organizations but has never shown more than brief flashes of success, to a one-year, $9 million deal as a sort of buy-medium gamble. Non-tendered by Cincinnati last week, Gausman still has two plus pitches in his fastball and splitter. After the Reds claimed him on waivers in early August, he threw the splitter more than ever, and hitters swung and missed at 31% of them. That all came in relief, and perhaps that's his best role, but I would love to see the Giants give him one more shot at starting, with a spacious stadium and perhaps a return to the mechanics that worked for him as a prospect.
Gausman's lack of an average breaking ball might ultimately leave him in the bullpen; and that could be fine, as he looks like he'll miss a lot of bats there with the splitter, which he probably could throw even half the time and still find success. It's not a cheap gamble at $9 million -- he had a 5.72 ERA last year, and that's not just some BABIP and sequencing fluke but an actual problem pitching from the stretch that the Giants also will have to address -- yet the upside is probably two to three times that in on-field value.