The most straightforward way to consider the Yankees' landmark signing of free-agent ace Gerrit Cole is this: New York now has baseball's best pitcher and the Houston Astros do not.
When you consider that the Yankees' inability to translate regular-season dominance into a pennant over the past three years is largely a product of running into the Astros in October, that simple observation tells you why Brian Cashman and the Steinbrenners were willing to go all-in on Cole with a nine-year, $324 million contract that is the richest ever given to a pitcher.
Of course there is risk. Even for the Yankees, in a luxury-tax world, one that will change when the next collective bargaining agreement is eventually figured out, $324 million is a hell of a lot of money. And Cole is a pitcher, a word that by itself almost serves as a cautionary tale. But in this case, the risk was worth taking.
The usual analysis on free-agent deals -- too many years? too little value on the back end? -- is all but superfluous in regard to Cole. Well before the offseason started, it became patently obvious that Cole would attract record offers, which seemingly narrowed the list of viable suitors to the Yankees, Los Angeles Angels and Los Angeles Dodgers, with the latter two clubs holding a geographic edge. (Cole is a Southern California native.) It was going to take this many years and this much money to get him, and if the Yankees had not stepped up, the Angels, Dodgers or the ever-lurking mystery team would have stepped into the breach.
Why does Cole merit this kind of contract? The confluence of factors that lined up better for him than any other pitcher, perhaps ever. He's coming off a season in which he went 20-5 with AL-leading figures -- a 2.50 ERA and 326 strikeouts -- in 212⅓ innings. From May 22 until the World Series, he was literally unbeatable.
Also, Cole keeps getting better, a trait that became more apparent during his time with the analytics-savvy Astros. He's durable, with 200-plus innings in four of the past five seasons during an era in which such seasons have become increasingly scarce. During Houston's postseason run in October, Cole proved to have no problem with finding his dominance under the brightest of spotlights, going 4-1 with a 1.72 ERA in five starts. He's got the upside and pedigree of a No. 1 overall draft choice (which he was in 2011).
For all of these traits, Cole just turned 29 in September. That justifies much of the contract length, especially considering the way 30-something aces are currently viewed. While a young pitcher with a lot of innings on his arm might have once been viewed askance, those who survive into their 30s with their stuff and dominance intact have earned a kind of Darwinist seal of approval.
For these precious few aces -- Cole, Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg, et al -- the innings are more a proof of concept than they are a red flag. With young pitchers facing more usage restrictions than ever, those veterans at the outer edge of the innings scale carry as much market sway as any group of stars in baseball. And because Cole is the youngest of them, his star is shining the brightest of all.
The Yankees finished 26th in rotation innings in 2019. Numerous injuries played a part of that, with Luis Severino's season-long maladies being the most stark example. Some of that was also by design -- the Yankees' strength the past few years has been a deep, hard-throwing bullpen. The rotation, on the other hand, only needed to be average in order to turn the leads built by New York's strong offense over to the mostly dominant 'pen. Analytical trends also underscore New York's starting pitcher strategies.
Now, the formula changes. The rotation, as it was previously constituted, was probably unfairly maligned. In Severino, James Paxton, J.A. Happ, Domingo German, Masahiro Tanaka and the recently retired CC Sabathia, the Yankees projected to be well above league average, if healthy. According to this year's offseason forecast at FanGraphs, the Yankees stood eighth in rotation WAR and fifth in the AL, just behind the Astros.
The same projection system forecasts Cole to finish at 6.2 fWAR -- easily the highest among all pitchers. While the upgrade to New York's staff is a little tough to pin down, as some of the bullpen's projected innings will now shift to Cole, a very conservative estimate would be at least four wins -- an improvement that suddenly lifts the Yankees into first place among projected rotations.
Meanwhile, the bullpen still figures to be one of the best two or three units in the game. From a strategy standpoint, when manager Aaron Boone wants to pull Tanaka after a couple of times through the order, he still has that vicious group of arms to churn through to get through the late innings. But with Cole, the number of games in which Boone will need to exercise the quick hook will diminish. In that way, his addition improves the rotation and the relief staff alike. When the postseason arrives, the Yankees won't necessarily have to default to a bullpen model. Boone can ride his aces -- including a presumably healthy Severino -- just as the Astros and Washington Nationals rode their aces to the 2019 World Series.
New York will be able to take on all comers in any fashion in which Boone sees fit. And when it comes down to winning that last game -- the one the Yankees haven't been able to get since their last championship in 2009 -- if things line up, they'll have Cole to slam the door.
Cole could not fit the Yankees better from an intangibles standpoint. He inherited his father's fandom of the Bombers as a kid, including famously attending Game 7 of the 2001 World Series between the Yanks and Arizona Diamondbacks. And as someone who was raised as a baseball fan -- not a quality you can take for granted among big leaguers -- he's well aware of the history of the franchise he's joining, and the expectations that go with that. When asked about trends in the game, Cole is as apt to throw out an allusion to Don Drysdale or Bob Gibson as he is Verlander or Scherzer. He knows the context that goes with wearing the pinstripes.
Cole is also a good match for the always-eager New York media machine. Cole makes himself available, always willing to speak up when required and accommodate requests as long as they don't impair his preparation. He doesn't fall back on easy cliches or platitudes, either, unless they happen to align with the way he's already feeling. You ask Cole a good question and you can expect a thoughtful answer, something that should go a long way in earning him the benefit of the doubt in NYC -- as long as he performs.
The Yankees still have some work do in filling out their roster, but that's what they will be doing -- filling out the roster. They could use more pitching depth, but who couldn't? They need another option behind the plate and a defense-first utility infielder, and if Brett Gardner doesn't re-sign, they are going to need to add some defense in the outfield as well. But the biggest move they, or any team, could have on their checklist this offseason was to sign Gerrit Cole. Consider that item emphatically checked off.
That Cole signed so early despite the slow pace of recent free-agent markets and the general habits of his agent, Scott Boras, is a boon to this winter's market as a whole. Last year, top-level free agents Bryce Harper and Manny Machado lingered in the market deep into the winter, which to a certain extent paralyzed the entire process. Now the Dodgers and Angels can move quickly to their Plan B's, and assuming fellow Boras client Anthony Rendon doesn't get stuck in limbo, we should have less of a freeze this time around. Or at least we can hope so.
Whatever happens for the Yankees between now and spring training is all gravy. They would have been projected as a playoff team and prime title contender without Cole; now they increasingly take on the dicey moniker of "team to beat." But that's the way it has been for the Yankees for most of the past century.
However, over the past decade, the Bombers have simply been "a" team to beat rather than "the" team to beat. That all changed on Tuesday night. With the winter's biggest splash, the Yankees have put the rest of the majors on notice that this sleeping giant is now fully awake.