Maybe nobody digs the long ball now that everybody is hitting the long ball. Just five of the 135 hitters who qualified for the batting title in 2019 hit fewer than 10 runs. Five years ago, that number was 43. Home runs are cheap and plentiful, and in a world in which front offices are looking for versatile, well-rounded players, the offense-only sluggers have had a harder time getting attention in free agency.
But even if the $100 million contract for any random slugger is dead, there are always teams that need to add offense. Unlike in past years, some of the players in this category might actually be undervalued by the market during a winter in which pitchers are getting paid. Here are five teams that should pay to add some punch to their lineups.
Chicago Cubs: The Cubs are a team that's been sorely missing offense from their outfield, which is why the ZiPS projections had Nicholas Castellanos' best destination last summer as Wrigley Field, and the Cubs did pick up Castellanos at the deadline. They missed the playoffs, but Castellanos hit far better than anyone expected, and that failure wasn't his fault.
The team's protests about a sudden lack of funds notwithstanding, a reunion with Castellanos or paying for a player like Marcell Ozuna would be a highly desirable move for the Cubs. Jason Heyward was adequate enough in center that he might actually be a mild plus there as a full-time option. It was disappointing that the Cubs didn't acquire Jonathan Villar, as he would have been a short-term upgrade over Nico Hoerner, and he has the versatility the Cubs crave, but there are other options, such as Jonathan Schoop, available on short-term deals this winter. (A Starlin Castro reunion strikes me as unlikely.) Unfortunately for their offense in 2020, the Cubs seem more determined to explore Kris Bryant trades than to add payroll.
Washington Nationals: The world champs were able to survive the loss of Bryce Harper in large part because of Juan Soto. Problem is, the Nationals don't have a Juan Soto equivalent to replace free agent Anthony Rendon at third base. Carter Kieboom is likely to be the third baseman if the Nationals don't make any other moves, but as solid a prospect as he is, he'd be hard-pressed to replace Rendon's contributions.
Washington struggled to find offense at first base in 2019, which is going to be even harder to paper over in 2020 because of the loss of Rendon. Very ordinary players like C.J. Cron or Mitch Moreland would upgrade the lineup at the position considerably, and perhaps affordably.
With the loss of Rendon, the Nats have to consider their few alternatives and move quickly. There's a giant drop-off after Josh Donaldson among the corner infielders available on the open market, though Todd Frazier still fields well enough to be a role player.
Cincinnati Reds: 2019 was a bit of a weird season in Cincinnati in that the team finally cobbled together a playoff-worthy rotation, but the offense fell woefully short. Finishing 12th in runs scored in the NL while playing in a hitters' park makes it hard to contend.
The tricky part for the Reds this winter is determining exactly where to upgrade. Yasmani Grandal would have been an ideal improvement behind the plate over Tucker Barnhart and Curt Casali, but he's unavailable now, and the catching market is thin. Adding Mike Moustakas was necessary but not sufficient in itself to turn the entire offense around, even if we assume that Joey Votto has a bounce-back season.
The outfield appears set, so the most logical place for the Reds to make an improvement is at shortstop. Jose Iglesias is gone -- and a better defensive player than an offensive one -- and Freddy Galvis is likely to be Cincinnati's starter at short. Galvis hit for enough power to set a career-best OPS+ of 96, but he has little remaining upside and still has just a single 2.0 WAR season in his career. The Reds were apparently out of the Didi Gregorius market because of Galvis' presence, but that was a mistake. They have been connected with Ozuna, but adding another infielder who can hit is far more crucial for the Reds this winter.
Colorado Rockies: The amusing thing about the Rockies is that they never seem to realize they have offensive problems. Finishing in fourth place in the NL in runs scored while playing half your games at Coors isn't a good result. At 2019's levels of offense, a league-average hitter would have a .278/.356/.479 season in Coors, a slash line that needs to be significantly stronger at first base and in the outfield corners.
I have long been a fan of Daniel Murphy for what he can do at the plate, but if the Rockies are serious about contending in the NL West, it's hard to enter the season expecting he'll stay healthy enough to hold down the first-base job all year. Murphy has now had two seasons in which he has been injured and relatively unimpressive offensively, and 35-year-olds aren't known for their improvements on the downslope of their aging curves. The first-base market is thin, but if there was ever a time for the Rockies to be aggressive and wring, say, Trey Mancini from the Orioles to have a big hitter who can play the outfield and first base, this would be the time to do it.
If the Rockies are determined to enter the season with Murphy as the stand-alone starting first baseman, they at least need to find a more interesting fallback than the Official Mark Reynolds Commemorative Roster Spot. They should instead talk to another team about an interesting stopgap type who is currently blocked for playing time -- someone like Kevin Cron in Arizona.
Center field is an even bigger problem for Colorado and will continue to be as long as the Rockies are determined to find Ian Desmond everyday playing time. But the center-field market in free agency is thin, so just like their situation at first base, a trade would be a more likely solution. Starling Marte would be a fun player to pursue with the Pirates rebuilding. Or see what the Mets would want for Brandon Nimmo, a player they always seem to be vaguely disinterested in.
Cleveland Indians: The Indians made a colossal blunder last year by letting Michael Brantley walk without so much as a qualifying offer. Facing a weak division, the Indians left several holes in their lineup coming into 2019, counting on Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez to carry the offense. The baseball gods enjoy punishing hubris, and Cleveland spent most of the season struggling to find offense while looking up at the Twins in the standings.
Going forward, Franmil Reyes should be adequate at designated hitter, but the team is likely to be below average offensively at all three outfield positions. I know they would rather not spend money, but I don't think bringing Yasiel Puig back is going to be anywhere near as expensive as some think and would probably fit within Cleveland's budget. Puig is no star, but you don't need a star to upgrade the team at a corner outfield position.
Second base is also a gaping weak spot, with some combination of Christian Arroyo and Mike Freeman likely to be manning the position. Cesar Hernandez and Brian Dozier would both be better, if hardly exciting, options at the position, as would Schoop. Starlin Castro has at least some theoretical upside left, and as odd as it seems, he's more than halfway to 3,000 hits.