Every free-agent class has its different strengths and weaknesses, and this winter brings a very strong group of starting pitchers. At the top of the heap, there are aces in Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg, followed by a strong group of mid-rotation starters that includes Hyun-Jin Ryu, Madison Bumgarner, Dallas Keuchel, Rick Porcello, Michael Pineda and Tanner Roark. (Two others in that group, Zack Wheeler and Cole Hamels, came off the board Wednesday, signing with the Phillies and Braves respectively.) The trade market might add a few more potential targets including Matthew Boyd, Robbie Ray and Marco Gonzales.
Several teams need starting pitching more than others, and those teams are featured here, along with potential targets for them to shore up their rotations this winter.
New York Yankees: The Yankees are bringing back a great lineup, and their rotation already has a couple of good contributors in Masahiro Tanaka and James Paxton. However, even if Luis Severino returns to pre-injury form, the team is still looking at a rotation barely among the top 10 clubs in baseball. If Severino doesn't come all the way back or injuries befell Paxton and Tanaka, the Yankees would have a rotation in the bottom half of the sport.
The Yankees need a pitcher to help in the regular season as well as to front their rotation in the playoffs. Only two available pitchers fit that mold: Cole and Strasburg. Either pitcher would provide the Yankees with the ace they were missing last season, particularly in the playoffs.
An ace like Cole or Strasburg wouldn't help solely during the playoffs, obviously. The American League East should be very competitive, so the regular-season value either provides will be important, to make sure the Yankees don't see the division slip through their fingers. For any "just good" team, missing the wild card -- as Cleveland did despite 93 wins -- is still a possibility with a few bad breaks. Cole or Strasburg could help make sure that wouldn't happen to the Yankees.
Texas Rangers: Texas started early on free agency by nabbing starter Kyle Gibson on a three-year deal, mirroring the contracts they've handed out to Mike Minor and Lance Lynn the past few years. That trio gives Texas a rotation in the top half of the league, but leaves little in the way of depth. Stocking the back end of the starting staff with Kolby Allard, Brock Burke and Ariel Jurado wouldn't create a good enough front five to get Texas back in contention.
The easy answer for Texas is to entice Cole to move across the division and state and give the Rangers arguably the best rotation in baseball. If the Rangers opt to devote much of their resources to position players -- where they need considerably more help -- a home run preventer such as Keuchel makes a lot of sense.
Los Angeles Angels: Want to know why Mike Trout has never won a playoff game? Since Trout joined the Angels full time in 2012, they have never had a starting rotation in the top half of the major leagues by FanGraphs WAR (fWAR). Their average ranking during that time has been 22nd, including dead last in 2019. The rotation will get some help with Shohei Ohtani's return from surgery next year. Andrew Heaney could be decent and Griffin Canning showed some promise, but by itself that trio is not close to a playoff rotation.
With only $150 million committed to next year's payroll and the light at the end of the tunnel finally in sight for Albert Pujols' contract, Los Angeles should be free to get into a bidding war for Cole.
The Angels might not be done even if they add Cole. Adding another pitcher on a short deal -- such as Pineda or Roark -- would shore up the Angels' biggest weakness from a year ago. If they were to miss out on Cole (or Strasburg), they would need to take two pitchers from the middle tier (maybe Bumgarner and Ryu) and even then, you would have to acknowledge that they still might not have the same impact as bringing in an ace.
Minnesota Twins: Minnesota went on a surprising run last year, winning more than 100 games and taking the AL Central title away from Cleveland. That's a successful season even though the playoffs again were unkind. The team was set to lose three of its best pitchers in Jake Odorizzi, Gibson and Pineda, with only Jose Berrios sticking around. The team was fortunate that Odorizzi accepted a qualifying offer, but the rotation still needs to replace a lot of quality innings. If the season started tomorrow, Randy Dobnak, Lewis Thorpe and Devin Smeltzer might make up three-fifths of the Twins' rotation.
Minnesota isn't likely to be in on Cole or Strasburg. Bumgarner's fly ball-heavy repertoire might not be the best fit for the Twins. But Ryu has a game that would play very well in Minnesota. Adding him would give the team a solid front three atop its rotation.
If the Twins miss out and end up with a slightly lesser alternative, it wouldn't be a surprise to see them go for a pitcher via trade. Ray has experience pitching in a tough home run environment in Arizona and the Twins have a lot of prospect depth to swing a deal for Ray in his final year before free agency.
Chicago White Sox: The White Sox signaled their intent to get better in 2020 when they signed Yasmani Grandal to a four-year contract. How much better they are willing to get depends on the rest of the offseason. Lucas Giolito took a big step forward, while Reynaldo Lopez and Dylan Cease showed they might be fits for the rotation in 2020. That's less true for Dylan Covey and Carson Fulmer. Michael Kopech might be ready to go next season, but that's a lot of question marks. If the White Sox want to win next season, they are going to need some pitching from outside the organization to complement their young core.
While Cole or Strasburg might be nice additions, the White Sox could actually use quantity more than quality for next season. Adding two solid starters would lengthen their depth, send a few more arms to the bullpen and raise the floor by preventing too many replacement-level innings in the rotation. While the ballpark in Chicago might not seem to be well designed for Bumgarner, the lefty's ability to neutralize same-sided batters could prove beneficial. Keuchel, Pineda and Roark all seem like good matches as well. The White Sox can go bargain hunting if they'd like, but if they don't get at least two quality starting pitchers by spring, it's going to be hard for the team to get back into contention and stay there all season.
The current imbalance in the AL has multiple losing teams trying to get into a winning cycle, and with five starting pitchers per team, the easiest place to upgrade is the rotation. The Twins are in an unusual position regarding replacing key rotation contributors, while the Yankees' need was obvious in the postseason. Most NL contenders are starting from decent positions in the rotation, and the teams trying to break through, like the Padres and Reds, already have multiple quality arms. Every team could use another quality starter, but when it comes to needs, a few AL teams should be a little more desperate -- and that could change everything in this winter's market.