The past three offseasons, the hot stove has produced tepid results as many free agents have been left waiting until spring to sign. Some players, such as Manny Machado and Bryce Harper, have found waiting to be financially beneficial. Others in the past few years, such as Dallas Keuchel, Craig Kimbrel, Gio Gonzalez, Mike Moustakas (twice) and Lance Lynn, have found their markets lacking and were left with unexpectedly low guarantees.
Absent a change in operations by the teams doing the shopping or the players waiting to sign, a handful of players will be in the same situation when pitchers and catchers report in February. We've already seen some players avoid that fate, with Jose Abreu and Jake Odorizzi accepting qualifying offers and Will Smith leveraging his potential acceptance of a qualifying offer into a three-year deal with the Atlanta Braves. But in the wake of those moves, let's take a look at several other players who might not get any good contract offers this winter.
LHP Madison Bumgarner: The lefty isn't likely to accept a bad deal, but he might be put into a similar situation as Jake Arrieta two years ago. Arrieta won the Cy Young in 2015 with an incredible 2.35 FIP and 1.77 ERA across 229 innings. In 2016, Arrieta was still good but not great, and in 2017 he produced just 168⅓; average-ish innings at age 31. Instead of the $100-plus million deal he was seeking, Arrieta waited until the middle of spring training to sign a deal guaranteeing him $75 million.
Bumgarner is in a similar spot. It has been a few years since the former Giants ace was really good. He rebounded this season with more than 200 innings and his sub-4.00 ERA and FIP made him solidly above average, but a $100 million contract isn't likely for the 30-year-old. If he sets reasonable expectations in the $60 million-$80 million range, he should have no problems finding a suitor, but if he wants something more, he's going to be waiting a long time.
OF Yasiel Puig: The former Dodgers, Reds and Indians player is fun to watch thanks to his powerful bat and arm, but that doesn't necessarily make him consistently good. Since his 9.4 FanGraphs-brand WAR breakout across 2013 and 2014, when his bat was 50% above average, Puig has averaged just 1.7 fWAR in five seasons, struggling to stay on the field with his bat coming in at just 10% above average. That's what his 2019 season looked like as well with a .267/.327/.458 slash line and 1.2 fWAR with average defense in right field.
Puig is caught in the middle of the outfield options of this winter's free-agent class. Marcell Ozuna and Nick Castellanos are the same age or younger and coming off better seasons. Brett Gardner is coming off a better season too, and he'll likely require just a one-year deal. For teams looking to take a chance on players with minimal risk, Kole Calhoun, Corey Dickerson and Avisail Garcia are all free agents likely to take smaller deals. If Puig is looking for three or more guaranteed years, teams will likely explore their other options, leaving Puig with little leverage. The result is likely to be a one- or two-year deal at about half the $40 million or more he's likely to seek.
RHP Rick Porcello: The former Cy Young Award winner is coming off a four-year, $82 million deal with the Boston Red Sox that saw a great season in the first year of the contract, followed by three solid inning-eater campaigns. Porcello has been in the league for 11 seasons, but doesn't turn 31 until next month, so he isn't quite a grizzled veteran. There are warning signs, however, that might prevent Porcello from getting a multiyear deal.
Porcello was once a ground ball-heavy, pitch-to-contact guy with the Tigers, but he induced a few more fly balls with the Red Sox along with an increased strikeout rate and always-low walk totals. Last season, his ground ball rate dipped to 38%, which ranked 50th out of 61 qualified pitchers. More fly balls should go with more swing-and-misses up in the zone, but Porcello's strikeout rate fell below 19% and that also ranked 50th among qualified pitchers. A lot of contact combined with a lot of fly balls proved to be a bad mix for Porcello, who posted a 4.76 FIP and even worse 5.52 ERA. He might not have been as bad as his ERA suggests, but he's relatively low on the list of free-agent starting pitchers and could end up with just a one-year deal.
2B Brian Dozier: A power-laden prime from 2014 to 2017 saw Dozier average 32 homers and 4.8 fWAR per season, but a disappointing walk year in 2018 meant he got just a one-year, $9 million contract with the Washington Nationals last season. Dozier played better in 2019 for the world champions, but his bat was roughly average as his fly ball stroke turned into a lot of outs. His low .238 batting average hurt his OBP despite a double-digit walk rate and prevented the second baseman from looking entirely like his old slugging self.
Dozier was a roughly average player in 2019 and he should be again in 2020, but second base is a tough position at which to find a contract for more than one season, and as he turns 33 next May, he becomes less and less likely to recapture his former prime. There will certainly be a market for his services, but he's not likely to fare any better than he did a year ago.
RHP Dellin Betances: From 2014 to 2016, Betances might have been the best reliever in baseball. Across those years, his 247 innings, 392 strikeouts and 8.3 fWAR topped all relievers. In 2017 and 2018, the righty was more good than great with fewer innings and more walks, but his f2.9 WAR still put him in the top 15 for relief pitchers.
This year was tough for Betances, as a shoulder impingement kept him out until September, and when he finally got into a game, he struck out both batters he faced and then suffered a partially torn Achilles tendon as he was leaving the mound. He opted for rehab over surgery, but the injury will make it tough for any team to commit to him long term. If he had been a free agent a few years ago, he might have gotten $50 million or more, but now he might have to settle for around $5 million (if that) and might also be saddled with a team-friendly option for 2021 in exchange for a higher guarantee.
RHP Michael Pineda: As Pineda was set to hit free agency for the first time after the 2017 season, he tore his UCL and had Tommy John surgery midseason, crushing the market for his services. The Minnesota Twins gave him a two-year deal guaranteeing just $10 million to allow him to rehab for all of 2018 and come back for the 2019 season healthy. The Twins and Pineda were rewarded for their patience as Pineda put together a strong season through the beginning of September. Pineda made 26 starts, pitching 146 innings with an ERA and FIP both right around 4.00, which was 10-15% better than average in the homer-happy 2019 season.
As he moved toward free agency this year, Pineda was hit with more bad news in the form of a positive PED test. While the test would normally result in an 80-game suspension, Pineda was able to get the suspension reduced to 60 games by showing "clear and convincing evidence that he bears no significant fault or negligence for the presence of the Performance Enhancing Substance in his test result." While that was good news for Pineda, it is still bad news for his free agency as he will be missing the first month-plus of the regular season. He might have been in line for a three-year deal paying him more than $10 million per year, but now he might have to settle for a single season to prove last season wasn't a fluke.
There are several similarly situated pitchers, like Pineda's teammate Kyle Gibson as well as Tanner Roark, Cole Hamels and Gio Gonzalez. It's hard to predict which pitcher will be left without a team when the merry-go-round stops, but with all the quality pitching available this winter, it seems almost certain that not everybody will be happy with their eventual contract.