Way-too-early 2020 MLB awards predictions

With the 2019 MLB awards handed out, we're wasting no time in looking 12 months into the future to predict who will be the winners in 2020.

ESPN baseball writer David Schoenfield breaks down the favorites, and Bradford Doolittle looks at some dark horses for next season's Rookie of the Year, Cy Young and MVP awards. Then they both make their way-too-early picks on who will be taking home hardware next year. (Free agents such as Gerrit Cole, Anthony Rendon and Stephen Strasburg were excluded from consideration as it's not clear what league they'll be playing in.)

AL MVP

Favorites: Mike Trout, Angels; Alex Bregman, Astros; Xander Bogaerts, Red Sox

Trout begins every season as the MVP favorite in the American League. He has finished first or second in the voting in seven of his eight seasons -- he fell all the way to fourth in 2017 when he played only 114 games. At age 28 in 2020 and coming off a career-high 45 home runs, there's no reason to expect any decline.

In his four seasons, Bregman has raised his OPS from .791 to .827 to .926 to 1.015. Whether there's even more growth there might depend on what kind of ball we see in 2020, but Bregman clearly has cemented his status as one of the best all-around players in the game. He proved his versatility by filling in (and playing well) at shortstop in 2019, and in his three full seasons he has proved his durability by playing 155, 157 and 156 games.

Mookie Betts or Francisco Lindor could be included here, but given the trade rumors, both could be playing in the National League in 2020. In 2019, Bogaerts had his best season at the plate, hitting .309/.384/.555 with 33 home runs, 52 doubles and 117 RBIs. At 27, he's right in the prime of his career. He plays a key defensive position -- the metrics disagree on how well he plays shortstop -- and if the Red Sox get back to the playoffs in 2020, it could be because Bogaerts leads the way.

Dark horses: George Springer, Astros; Shohei Ohtani, Angels; Yoan Moncada, White Sox.

Springer is entering a walk year, and while he's likely to get paid fat via arbitration this winter, if not for the Astros' service-time gaming, he'd be shopping his wares right now. He'll be 31 when he hits the market for the first time, so he needs a huge season to show his arrow is still pointed upward.

As far as Ohtani, who knows, maybe we get a true 1919-ish Babe Ruth season out of him. We know he can dominate as a pitcher; we know he can mash as a hitter. Maybe we get to see him do both for a full season for the first time. If so, that will turn more than a few voters' heads.

Moncada is a classic third-year player who reached another tier in 2019. One more leap and he's among the game's best.

Schoenfield's pick: Trout. If it's Trout versus everyone else, it's still basically a coin flip.

Doolittle's pick: Bregman. Part of this pick could be a product of Trout fatigue, but here's what Bregman did after the All-Star break in 2019: .338/.463/.671 with 18 homers and 56 RBIs in 68 games. Next season is when he'll break through and edge Trout.

NL MVP

Favorites: Christian Yelich, Brewers; Ronald Acuna Jr., Braves; Juan Soto, Nationals

If Yelich hadn't suffered a fractured kneecap in early September, he probably would have won a second straight MVP award. He's second behind Trout in OPS over the past two seasons, and since the All-Star break in 2018 he has hit .342/.436/.705 with 69 home runs and 164 RBIs in 195 games. That's Ted Williams stuff. Oh, except Yelich is also one of the best baserunners in the game and a solid outfielder.

All Acuna did in his age-21 season was hit 41 home runs, lead the NL with 37 steals and 127 runs and play plus defense at all three outfield positions (plus-9 defensive runs saved). His adjusted OPS actually fell from his rookie season, however, from 143 to 122, which isn't an MVP number and is why he ranked just ninth among NL position players in WAR. To become an MVP, Acuna will have to improve around the edges: raise the batting average a little, raise the OBP, cut down the strikeouts, add a few more doubles to help the slugging percentage (he hit only 22 doubles this year). But don't forget, he'll be 22 next season. He'll get better.

Soto has a chance to be the best hitter in the league given his .282/.401/.548 line in his age-20 season -- followed by his hitting .277/.373/.554 in the postseason, including three home runs in the World Series. He's good and he knows he's good, and he turned himself into must-see viewing with his playoff performance. The bat will have to carry him to an MVP since his defense is merely average-ish, but that can be done. A good comp is Joey Votto, a similar high-OBP hitter with limited defensive value who won one MVP and missed a second by one point.

And while we limited this to three favorites, the usual suspects like reigning MVP Cody Bellinger, Anthony Rendon (if he returns to the NL), Nolan Arenado and Freddie Freeman all fit here as well.

Dark horses: J.T. Realmuto, Phillies; Eugenio Suarez, Reds; Trevor Story, Rockies

Realmuto could emerge as a kind of hybrid MVP candidate, someone who is a mix of en vogue analytical excellence along with a strong measure of old-school grit and leadership. If the Phillies go on a run in 2020, we'll see a spate of stories about how the game's best catcher is the heart and soul of the clubhouse. He deserves the attention.

Suarez probably peaked during the second half of this season, but if he didn't, doubling his post-break numbers from 2019 gets him to 58 home runs.

Story is underrated as a great all-around player, and he has shown a penchant for self-improvement.

Schoenfield's pick: Soto. Acuna can do more things with his defense and baserunning, but Soto's plate discipline will allow him to put up monster offensive numbers.

Doolittle's pick: Soto. I know that given his level of production already, you can't necessarily assume that Soto's numbers will continue to trend upward even though he is only 21. But watching the way he handled elite pitching during the World Series tells me that he's going to have a Trout-like ability to keep pushing his ceiling upward.

AL Cy Young

Favorites: Justin Verlander, Astros; Blake Snell, Rays; Mike Clevinger, Indians

Since we don't know yet where Gerrit Cole will be pitching in 2020, Verlander qualifies as the AL favorite. He'll be 37 but shows no signs of slowing down after winning his second Cy Young Award and leading the majors in innings pitched. He did seem to tire a bit in the postseason, so you wonder if the Astros will back off him a little in 2020, at least if they're cruising to another AL West title.

Snell, the 2018 winner, had a frustrating 2019 season, going 6-8 with a 4.29 ERA and missing time because of a broken toe and then surgery to remove loose bodies from his elbow. He did return in September, however, and when he did pitch, he was much better than the ERA indicated with 147 strikeouts in 107 innings. There's some risk with the elbow and even in his Cy Young season he pitched only 180⅔ innings, but few pitchers can match his level of wipeout stuff.

Teammate Corey Kluber has two Cy Youngs, and teammate Shane Bieber finished fourth in the 2019 balloting, but Clevinger will be the ace of the Cleveland rotation in 2020. In 21 starts in 2019 -- he missed two months because of a strained muscle in his upper back -- he went 13-4 with a 2.71 ERA and 169 strikeouts in 126 innings. He pitched 200 innings in 2018, so he has proven he can carry a heavy workload. His walk rate continues to drop while the K rate goes up. Where's Vinnie Pestano, whom Cleveland traded to the Angels for Clevinger five years ago, these days?

Dark horses: Lucas Giolito, White Sox; Frankie Montas, Athletics; Tyler Glasnow, Rays

Well, maybe Giolito is not a true dark horse, but given the fairly anonymous national reputation of the White Sox at the moment, I'm not sure his name springs to mind when the game's top hurlers are listed. It should.

Montas in an excellent pitcher who has just come into his own. He's part of a potentially great starting rotation in Oakland that should earn a lot of attention. And after getting himself suspended last season, he has a lot to prove.

If Glasnow comes up with even one consistent secondary pitch, look out.

Schoenfield's pick: Clevinger. At least until Cole signs with the Angels.

Doolittle's pick: My real pick is a free agent (Cole), so I'll go with Giolito. If he cuts his home run rate a little, he'll be right there with what Verlander has been the last couple of years.

NL Cy Young

Favorites: Jacob deGrom, Mets; Jack Flaherty, Cardinals; Walker Buehler, Dodgers

With back-to-back Cy Young wins, deGrom will try to join Randy Johnson and Greg Maddux by winning three in a row (they both won four in a row). With three straight 200-inning seasons and less wear and tear on his arm than most pitchers his age since he was primarily a position player until he was drafted, deGrom could be one of those guys who dominates deep into his 30s.

Flaherty finished fourth in the 2019 voting after going 11-8 with a 2.75 ERA in 33 starts, but it's what he did in the second half that makes him a favorite for next season. Over his final 16 starts, he gave up only 12 runs, posting a 0.93 ERA and holding batters to a .139 average.

Few starters can match Buehler's combination of high-velocity fastball and deep arsenal of pitches. He throws strikes (only 37 walks in 182⅓ innings) and gets swing-and-misses (215 strikeouts). If he can avoid the bad starts -- he had four games of six or seven runs allowed -- that 3.26 ERA will shrink to a Cy Young level.

Dark horses: Luis Castillo, Reds; Noah Syndergaard, Mets; Yu Darvish, Cubs.

With another year under pitching coach Derek Johnson, and the potential impact from the hiring of Driveline's Kyle Boddy, I would be shocked if the Reds don't have a strong Cy Young candidate, whether it's Castillo, Trevor Bauer or Sonny Gray. Castillo's fastball/changeup combination has already made him one of the game's toughest matchups, and I look for him to consolidate his ascension in 2020.

Darvish really found himself last season, and if the Cubs bounce back with a strong year, as Chicago's staff ace, he'll get a lot of support.

As for Syndergaard, let's not forget that prior to deGrom's 2018 breakout, it was Thor who seemed most likely to become the NL's dominant righty. I haven't given up on the guy becoming something akin to that.

Schoenfield's pick: deGrom. Flaherty's run was impressive, but let's see if he can continue it over 200-plus innings. We know deGrom can. (And Max Scherzer will be in the mix, but the injury issues from 2019 are a minor red flag.)

Doolittle's pick: Flaherty. A full season of what he did during the second half of 2019 will have Redbird fans comparing him to Dizzy Dean and Bob Gibson.

AL Rookie of the Year

Favorites: Luis Robert, White Sox; Kyle Tucker, Astros; Jesus Luzardo, Athletics

Robert, a 22-year-old Cuban, has been a top prospect since signing with the White Sox, and after playing only 50 games in 2018 because of an injury, he broke out in Double-A and Triple-A, hitting .328/.376/.624 with 32 home runs. There are no roadblocks in the Chicago outfield, and if he can improve his plate discipline (129 strikeouts, 28 walks) he should produce immediate results.