The Hot Stove season is upon us, and thus far, we have seen promising signs of moving past the free-agent freeze of the past two winters in the multiple early signings of major free agents by the Braves and White Sox, two teams not known for spending big. Even so, with competitive imbalance at an expansion-era high -- at least in terms of the standard deviation of team winning percentage, a fancy way of saying the spread between the good teams and bad -- it's not hard to imagine who will be competing for playoff spots in 2020. Primarily, it will be the same teams who did so in 2019.
That at least lends itself to a fun exercise as we consider what the top teams that missed out on this past postseason could do to secure a playoff spot next year, in the form of One Big Move. Granted, no team is going to limit itself to just one offseason transaction, and nobody secures a playoff spot without lucking into more best-case scenarios (and fewer worst-case ones) in terms of injuries and player development than its competition. But as we look out across the baseball landscape, here are a handful of potential moves -- by teams that won at least 81 games last year but wound up on the outside looking in -- which could shake up the 2020 playoff picture.
No. 1: Cleveland Indians trade RHP Corey Kluber and OF/1B Jake Bauers to the Boston Red Sox for OF/DH J.D. Martinez
Only six AL teams won more than 84 games, and the Indians, who won 93, were the ones left short of earning even a wild card, missing a postseason spot by three games. They caught bad breaks both literally and figuratively; Jose Ramirez, who had shaken off a slump dating back to late 2018, played just three games after August 24 due to a fractured hamate in his right hand, while Kluber suffered a fractured right ulna and then strained an oblique while rehabbing, ending his season after just seven starts. Beyond that, the Indians' failure to fortify their outfield corners helped dig them into an early-season hole -- 11.5 games behind the Twins as of June 2 -- from which they never quite escaped. To that point, the team as a whole hit for just a 77 wRC+, with Bauers (72 wRC+), Tyler Naquin (77), Greg Allen (35) and Carlos Gonzalez (47) doing much of the damage. In-season improvement from Jordan Luplow and the arrivals of prospect Oscar Mercado (who played center field for the most part) and vets Yasiel Puig and Franmil Reyes helped. But to acquire the latter pair, the Indians dealt Trevor Bauer to Cincinnati at the trade deadline via a three-team deal that also included the Padres.
Kluber's performance in limited duty was rough (35 ⅔ IP, 5.80 ERA, 4.06 FIP), but the Indians picked up the 33-year-old righty's $13.5 million option, which would obviously be a bargain if he can approach his 2014-18 form. Between the performances of Shane Bieber, Mike Clevinger, Aaron Civale, and Zach Plesac, the team demonstrated they have the pitching depth to contend in his absence. So they could take advantage of his team-friendly deal -- which also includes a $14 million club option that converts to a vesting option if he's traded and throws at least 160 innings, not to mention a $1 million assignment bonus -- to bulk up their lineup.
The Red Sox are more than one move away from making it back to the playoffs, and thus reduced to supporting actors here. They could replace the disappointing Rick Porcello (gone as a free agent) with Kluber, who costs less, and could cut payroll further by trading Martinez, who bypassed an opt-out and has three years and $62.5 million remaining on his deal, albeit with another opt-out after 2020 and a three-team no-trade clause. The 32-year-old slugger hit .304/.383/.557 (139 wRC+) in what was nonetheless a comedown from his 169 wRC+ from 2017-18. How he and Reyes would divvy up the right field/DH duties in Cleveland matters less than the degree to which they will upgrade an offense that ranked just seventh in the league in scoring.
As for Bauers, a 24-year-old lefty bat, he's a former top-50 prospect from his Rays days and thus a familiar face to new chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom. While he has struggled in the bigs thus far (an 87 wRC+ in 811 PA), he gives the Red Sox a low-cost option for first base at a time both Mitch Moreland and Steve Pearce are free agents.
Nos. 2 and 3: Arizona Diamondbacks trade LHP Robbie Ray and OF Steven Souza Jr. to the Chicago Cubs for LF Kyle Schwarber and RHP Tyler Chatwood
Last winter's trade of Paul Goldschmidt and the free-agent departures of Patrick Corbin and A.J. Pollock suggested that the Diamondbacks were retrenching if not fully rebuilding, yet they improved from 82 to 85 wins despite dealing away Zack Greinke at the July 31 deadline. They would have won even more games if not for the measly 79 wRC+ and 0.5 WAR they received Adam Jones and their other right fielders.
Schwarber would provide a significant upgrade. The burly going-on-27-year-old is coming off a 38-homer, 120 wRC+, 2.6 WAR season, and his defense, while not rated quite as good as in 2018, was roughly league-average (minus-0.9 UZR, minus-1 DRS). Steamer forecasts him to be a 3.0 WAR player in 2020, and while he has almost no experience in right field, incumbent left fielder David Peralta does, with favorable enough numbers (1.6 UZR, 12 DRS in about one season worth of work) to make shifting him to the opposite outfield corner plausible.
Schwarber comes with two years of club control, but he will not come cheap, as Ray -- a free agent after 2020 -- was pretty solid last year (4.34 ERA, 4.29 FIP, 2.4 WAR). To offset his loss in this scenario, the likes of Mike Leake, Zac Gallen (who did a neat Zack Greinke impression upon being acquired from the Marlins last July 31), and Alex Young can provide more innings, with Luke Weaver and Taijuan Walker (hopefully) rebounding from significant injuries. Taking a flyer on Chatwood, whose control problems consigned him to the bullpen for much of his first two seasons in Chicago, can further help pick up the slack.
As for the Cubs, Ray joins a rotation whose front four (Yu Darvish, Kyle Hendricks, Jon Lester, and Jose Quintana) often disappointed last year yet are still forecast to rank among the majors' top 10 even before adding the 28-year-old southpaw. The outfield won't be their strength, but with right fielder Jason Heyward coming off his best offensive season as a Cub (101 wRC+) and center fielder Ian Happ thoroughly capable of improving significantly upon the 79 wRC+ and 0.3 WAR they got from Albert Almora Jr. and others, they can afford to take a chance with Souza. In 2017, he gave the Rays a 30-homer, 121 wRC+, 3.8 WAR season but injuries have hampered him since, namely a recurrent pectoral strain that limited him to 72 games in 2018, and torn ligaments (ACL, PCL, LCL) in his left knee that wiped out all of last season.
No. 4: New York Mets trade 1B/LF Dominic Smith and RHP Franklyn Kilomé to the Toronto Blue Jays for RHPs Ken Giles and Trent Thornton
While Pete Alonso was busy setting a rookie record with 53 home runs, Smith did his best to carve out playing time as well, drawing the occasional start, pinch-hitting, and -- as he'd done in 2018 -- attempting to play left field. For a while, it sort of worked; through June, the big lefty hit .328/.418/.590 for a 167 wRC+ in 141 plate appearances. After slumping in July, he was diagnosed with a stress reaction in his left foot, and didn't return until the season finale, when he hit a walk-off three-run homer against the Braves, his 11th of the season in just 197 PA. He's too good to languish on the bench, and too lousy a defender to play regularly in the outfield (minus-6.8 UZR and minus-7 DRS in just 309 career innings). With five-plus years of control remaining, he can bring back something the Mets need to augment the core of an 86-win team -- help at both ends of their pitching staff -- while giving the Blue Jays a potentially significant upgrade on Rowdy Tellez at first base.
The prize for the Mets is Giles, who rebounded after a difficult 2018 season that saw the Astros send him to the minors and trade him to the Blue Jays for the suspended Roberto Osuna, a transaction all of us could have done without. A pending free agent, Giles will greatly improve a bullpen that ranked 13th in the NL in ERA (4.99) and 10th in FIP (4.71). If Edwin Diaz rebounds from a lost season, they could form an exceptional one-two punch no matter who's closing. Thornton, a 26-year-old righty, showed that he could be a reliable back-end starter in 2019, something the Mets can use behind Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Marcus Stroman and Steven Matz, with Seth Lugo remaining a bullpen weapon.
Kilomé, a 24-year-old Dominican righty, is merely a stand-in for any one of a number of non-elite pitching prospects the Mets could use to balance the deal. He missed all of last season due to Tommy John surgery, and hasn't pitched above Double-A, but offers a future -- emphasis on that word -- as either a back-end rotation or late-inning guy.
No. 5: Philadelphia Phillies sign RHP Gerrit Cole
The Phillies won just 81 games despite adding Bryce Harper, Andrew McCutchen, David Robertson and Jean Segura last winter, in part due to a disappointing rotation that ranked 11th in the NL in ERA (4.64), 13th in WAR (7.6), and 14th in FIP (4.91). Aaron Nola receded from his near-Cy Young contending form to merely above-average, Jake Arrieta was limited to 24 starts, a 4.64 ERA and 4.89 FIP due to a bone spur in his elbow, and Zach Eflin declined as well. What's more, no other starter gave the team more than 0.7 WAR.
To contend, new manager Joe Girardi will need both Arrieta and Nola to rebound in significant fashion. But even if they do, the only single move that has any chance of getting the Phillies back into the postseason is the addition of Cole, who posted the AL's lowest ERA and FIP (2.50 and 2.64, respectively) and highest WAR (7.4) while setting a record for strikeout rate by a starter (39.9%).
The 29-year-old righty missed out on a historic trifecta because the Astros lost the World Series to the Nationals and teammate Justin Verlander edged him for the Cy Young. But Cole should nail down the third of these three "wins" by securing the largest contract ever for a pitcher, something well beyond the seven-year, $217 million deal David Price signed with the Red Sox in December 2015. At FanGraphs, Kiley McDaniel estimated a $242 million price tag for seven years.
It might be a long shot for the Phillies -- who did guarantee Harper $330 million last winter -- to make another outlay north of $200 million. But with Arrieta off the books after 2020 and Nola under club control through 2023 at very reasonable rates, the team must spend on pitching to return to the postseason for the first time since 2011. They might as well go with the best.