Gerrit Cole. Stephen Strasburg. Madison Bumgarner. And many more. On the heels of a World Series dominated by elite starters, the starting pitching market is arguably the strongest position in free agency this winter.
How will things play out for the two marquee aces of the MLB offseason? Which under-the-radar arms are out there? And how much will what we saw this October impact the months ahead? We asked ESPN's Bradford Doolittle, Buster Olney and David Schoenfield to break down the state of the starting pitching market.
If you were a betting man, what would you put the odds at that Strasburg will return to the Nats next season?
Buster Olney: It's hard to know the answer to that without knowing exactly what the level of interest from the Padres is. Are they interested in the idea of having Strasburg to head their rotation, to come home and lead the team that Strasburg followed as a kid -- while being paid on some small-market, hometown discount? Or are they interested in the way they were with Manny Machado -- offering their organizational checkbook for sacrifice? Because it's hard to imagine that the Padres would be able to land Strasburg on the cheap. Right now, I still think the team that is the best fit is the Nationals because they know him and are willing to pay, and more importantly, he knows them.
Bradford Doolittle: I'd peg it at 70-30 in favor of a return to D.C. Everything you hear about Strasburg is that he doesn't like change, unless, apparently, it is an upward alteration of his salary. The Nats should be able to pony up for him. The question of course is dollars, or else Strasburg wouldn't have opted out in the first place. His profile is a fascinating one from this perspective: How will the market evaluate his lack of a track record of durability? If Strasburg is viewed as a pitcher who has emerged from his fragile years ready to rack up 200-inning seasons, he could join Gerrit Cole in surpassing David Price's record of $217 million in total contract value for a pitcher.
David Schoenfield: According to the Totally Unofficial Schoenfield Offseason Odds, I'll go 5-2. I'd suggest the odds of Strasburg returning to the Nationals are higher than Anthony Rendon's. The Nats have always tried to build around starting pitching, and given Strasburg's postseason run, if they have to choose between one, I think they lean to Strasburg.
How many years and total dollars do you think Gerrit Cole will get this winter?
Schoenfield: David Price owns the record contract in total dollars for a pitcher for his seven-year, $217 million deal with the Red Sox in 2016. In the two years before that contract, Price went 33-17 with a 2.88 ERA, 496 strikeouts and 10.5 WAR. In his two seasons with Houston, Cole went 35-10 with a 2.68 ERA, 602 strikeouts and 12.1 WAR. He's also a year younger than Price was. Even with the usual concerns about pitcher health, Cole will shatter Price's record. I'll go seven years, $260 million.
Olney: The conditions for Cole's free agency are just about perfect: He's widely regarded as the best pitcher on the planet right now; he's healthy; the first number in his age is a 2, and not a 3; and he's got an array of teams that appear poised to bid on him, including at least three big-budget clubs (the Yankees, the Astros, the Phillies) and a club desperate to take a step forward (the Angels). The number that makes sense to me is $238 million -- seven times an average of $34 million.
Doolittle: Cole is such a rare stew of so many positive markers that the standard upper end of seven years for a pitcher feels like a no-brainer. So, too, does an average annual value of $33 million to $36 million, or thereabouts. The real intrigue is whether a team tacks on an eighth season -- or even an option-protected ninth -- in order to close a deal. I'm guessing yes to eight, with a total value of $280 million.
Forget about their age for a second. Which one would you rather have as your ace next year -- Strasburg or Cole?
Doolittle: I'd take Cole. His most recent season was the stronger one and so too is his record of durability. But I'm not kicking either one of them off my dance card.
Schoenfield: Cole. Sure, Strasburg was amazing in October and earned himself a lot of cash with that performance. He also led the NL with 209 innings. He also averaged just 145 innings per season the previous four years. Cole has been the healthier pitcher and was better in 2019 and better in 2018.
Olney: Cole. He's the safer bet.
Besides the big two, which is the next starting pitcher you'd want to sign this winter?
Schoenfield: Zack Wheeler. I know there is an injury history there -- he missed all of 2015 and 2016 and the second half of 2017, then had a short IL stint around the trade deadline in 2019 -- but he has made 60 starts the past two seasons. I'd love to see him with a team -- and a better analytical front office and operations staff -- that can get more out of his top-level stuff. For example: Could the Astros do with him what they did with Cole?
Olney: A lot of that depends on price, but I suspect that the teams that lose out on the Cole bidding may turn to Wheeler because of the flashes of excellence and his age (29). At last summer's trade deadline, the Braves, Yankees, Astros and Rays were all involved in conversations with the Mets about possible Wheeler trades, foreshadowing the interest in him this winter.
Doolittle: Probably Madison Bumgarner, but it's close between him and Zack Wheeler. Bumgarner's track record is a little longer and he projects as a pitcher who at the very least can give you above-average innings over the course of a four-year deal. If we were just talking next season, I might lean toward Wheeler.
Who will Madison Bumgarner be pitching for come Opening Day?
Olney: That depends on who is turning the steering wheel for the Giants. If it's baseball ops head Farhan Zaidi, then Bumgarner will be someplace else. But it may have been that pressure from above blocked Zaidi from making an aggressive trade involving Bumgarner in July, and ultimately, pressure from above may push him back to the Giants. He's said to be a personal favorite of owner Charles Johnson, and because of his history with the team, he's worth more to the Giants than any other club.
Doolittle: Given the intersection of team need, place in the contention cycle, ability to pay and geographic fit, the Braves seem like the most likely landing spot.
Schoenfield: I agree with Brad here -- Braves. He's from North Carolina, they need a veteran to lead the staff with Dallas Keuchel also in free agency, and Bumgarner won't break the bank (which would otherwise scare off the Braves). Maybe there is some concern after a career-worst 3.90 ERA that he's an old 30, but he still made 34 starts, tossed 207⅔ innings and got his strikeout-to-walk ratio back in shape after a mediocre rate in 2018. That 5.29 road ERA is also a concern, but put him back in a pennant race and see what happens.
Who is one deep sleeper starting pitcher you think could be a bargain this winter?
Doolittle: Every fiber of my being wants to say Felix Hernandez, who surely won't command more than a team-friendly, one-year deal. What could the Astros do with him? How about the Reds and their new space-age pitching program? The problem is one of want-to, and that's a deal-breaker. So my sleeper signing would be Jordan Lyles, who really seemed to figure something out over the course of the 2019 season.
Schoenfield: Hmm, depending on definition of deep sleeper, how about Rick Porcello, who will see his price plummet after a 5.52 ERA with the Red Sox in 2019? You're not signing him to be a No. 1 or 2 or to repeat his 2016 Cy Young season, but this is a guy who makes 30 starts every season and has qualified for the ERA title in each of his 11 seasons in the majors. His 2019 ERA was hurt by an unseemly .314/.407/.571 line with runners in scoring position. Of course, he also has more than 2,000 career innings and while he'll be 31 in December, that is a lot of innings in the majors.
Olney: Rich Hill, who was good in the 13 starts he made, posting a 2.45 ERA. And I'd bet the family farm that he will wind up with the Red Sox. He's 39 and so isn't in position to get a lucrative long-term deal, and grew up just outside of Boston, where he lives in the offseason. The Red Sox need inexpensive rotation depth given the questions that hover over Chris Sale, David Price and Nathan Eovaldi, and in a year in which the Red Sox are trying to reduce payroll, Hill and the Red Sox could fit each other.
Which starting pitcher do you think the Yankees are most likely to sign this winter?
Olney: Last winter, the Yankees were outbid for Patrick Corbin. This winter, I think they'll post the most significant offer for Wheeler; whether he takes it is a separate question.
Doolittle: I'd say Wheeler seems like the most gettable among options in the top couple of tiers, given New York's payroll situation. Maybe Hyun-Jin Ryu, but the Yankees need innings. A down-rotation possibility for a good amount of decent innings would be a reunion with Ivan Nova, who was solid for the White Sox over the second half of 2019, albeit with a fair amount of smoke and mirrors.
Schoenfield: How come we never ask "Which starting pitcher do you think the Mariners are most likely to sign this winter?" No love for the mercurial mind of Jerry Dipoto? No, it's always about the Yankees. Do you realize the Yankees haven't gone big for a free-agent pitcher since Masahiro Tanaka way back in 2014? (JA Happ doesn't count.) They're not going to get Cole, and there's no way I see Strasburg wanting to pitch in New York. Frankly, with Tanaka, James Paxton, Luis Severino, Happ, Domingo German and maybe Jordan Montgomery, the Yankees probably just go small with a depth piece. How about Wade Miley?
How much do you think the reliance on starting pitchers by this year's World Series teams helps this winter's free-agent starters?
Olney: Not much. Because what distinguished this year's World Series rotations weren't the fact that they had viable starters -- rather, it was the excellence of the individual pitchers, from Strasburg to Cole to Max Scherzer to Justin Verlander to Zack Greinke. But I do think Wheeler will benefit because the teams that were left behind in the playoffs -- the Yankees, especially -- will work to close the gap between themselves and the two World Series teams.
Doolittle: It helps Cole and Strasburg. There is more of a premium on premium starters than ever, and all you have to do is look at how much the Nationals and Astros spent on their top starters. I'm not sure that it makes that much difference to anyone else. I still don't see anyone except those two getting more than four years or hitting $100 million in total contract value. Ryu, Wheeler, Bumgarner and Jake Odorizzi will all be popular targets but only to a certain level before the risk/reward ratio starts sending teams looking for buy-low candidates and internal options.
Schoenfield: Well, Cole and Strasburg were going to get paid even if they hadn't pitched in the World Series -- after all, starting pitching is always in demand. The opener isn't an alternate strategy to good starting pitching; it's an alternate strategy only when you don't have enough good starting pitching. So the second tier behind Cole and Strasburg should also be well compensated. Buyer beware, however: At this time last year, we were reacting to Nathan Eovaldi's big October, and he had a 5.99 ERA this season with the Red Sox.