Washington Nationals manager Dave Martinez says he knew his team's dugout celebrations had gone next-level when Gerardo Parra and Anibal Sanchez sandwiched Stephen Strasburg in a hug. Because anybody who knows Strasburg or has played with him understands how private he is, how much he values his personal space.
In a sense, free agency is like Strasburg's free-market nightmare, bearing the specter of a bunch of teams throwing themselves at him, trying to embrace him. The last time Strasburg got close to free agency (after the 2016 season), he bypassed that possibility; agent Scott Boras arranged a seven-year, $175 million deal -- because Strasburg really didn't want to go anywhere. He was comfortable in Washington, working for and with people he knew.
But Strasburg has opted out of that deal because the fact is that had he lived under the terms of that contract, he would have been undervalued and would have left apparent leverage unused.
Strasburg was owed $100 million over the last four years of his deal, with some of it deferred, and last winter, Patrick Corbin got the biggest deal in the free-agent market, six years and $140 million. Strasburg is coming off a regular season in which he racked up 251 strikeouts over 209 innings, with a 3.32 ERA -- and he was the preeminent pitching force in the postseason, posting a 1.98 ERA in six outings against the best hitters on the best teams, winning the World Series MVP for two excellent starts against the Houston Astros.
There are two mitigating factors that will concern teams as they weigh possible offers to the right-hander.
1. Strasburg is 31 years old, 32 next July. A new seven-year deal would linger into his late 30s, and with a few notable exceptions -- like the contract of teammate Max Scherzer or the Cubs' signing of Jon Lester -- long-term agreements with pitchers of that age tend to get ugly at the end.
2. Generally speaking, doctors and teams think that a Tommy John repair lasts about seven years. Strasburg had an elbow reconstruction in 2010. There are no outward signs that Strasburg is on the verge of another blowout, but one of the questions that interested teams will delve into is the condition of his past elbow repair.
The Nationals will have a better sense of that than any other club, and privately, they've made it clear they'd like to re-sign Strasburg, who is a legacy player who carried the Nationals through tenuous moments as they won the 2019 World Series.
There's reason to believe that Strasburg would really like to return to the Nationals, given his instinctive aversion to change. He moved with his growing family to Washington D.C. for the last offseason, and within a few moments after Daniel Hudson threw the title-clinching pitch on Wednesday night, Strasburg referred to Washington as home.
But in order for him to return, the Nationals would have to extend themselves into what would probably be uncomfortable financial ground. They were outbid for Bryce Harper in free agency last winter, may well lose Anthony Rendon this winter, and it's within the realm of possibility that the same teams that chase after Gerrit Cole -- such as the Angels, Yankees, Phillies, Dodgers and Rangers -- could pursue Strasburg if he lasts in free agency. Cole is widely regarded as the best pitcher on the planet right now, and Strasburg might be the second best, and Boras -- who represents both -- is in position to attempt to glean leverage.
In the end, Strasburg will have great options, including the one to return to the Nationals -- working with and for people he knows.