What a ride for the 2019 World Series champion Washington Nationals.
First they recovered from that 19-31 start to roll through the second half and grab a wild card with 93 wins. Nationals fans will always remember the late comeback against the Brewers in the wild-card game and the dramatic rally to beat the Dodgers in the final game of the division series, with the home runs Anthony Rendon and Juan Soto hit off Clayton Kershaw and then Howie Kendrick's game-winning grand slam.
After sweeping the Cardinals in the National League Championship Series, the Nationals won the first two games of the World Series in Houston, setting the stage for one of the biggest upsets in history. When the Nationals' bats died at home, scoring three runs in three games, it seemed D.C.'s title hopes would die with them. But Washington rallied for two more wins in Houston, including a comeback fueled by another Kendrick homer in Game 7 to take the first title in franchise history.
Now the Nationals turn to the offseason. It's going to be a busy one. Five key questions:
1. & 2. What happens with Rendon and Stephen Strasburg?
Rendon heads into free agency after hitting .319/.412/.598 with 34 home runs, 44 doubles and a major league best 126 RBIs. Yes, he's going to get paid. Among the teams who could pursue Rendon:
Angels: They were last in the majors in OPS at third base.
Dodgers: Justin Turner is entering the final year of his contract and could slide into a utility role.
Phillies: They're looking for an upgrade over Maikel Franco.
Rangers: They need a third baseman as they move into their new park.
Strasburg, meanwhile, has four years and $100 million left on his contract, but has an opt-out clause. Given his regular-season performance (18 wins, league-leading 209 innings) and excellent postseason, he'll easily clear $100 million in free agency, so he's likely to test the market to see what offers roll in.
The good news is the Nationals have long-term payroll flexibility, with only Scherzer and Patrick Corbin signed beyond 2020. Is it realistic to re-sign both players? Maybe not. History does suggest when a player reaches free agency, he usually signs elsewhere. Strasburg, however, has already signed one long-term extension with the Nationals, so maybe he'll do that again. Both players are Scott Boras clients and while the Nationals obviously have a tight relationship with Boras, they'll have to pay top dollar to retain their two stars.
Of course, the tricky part about navigating the winter is you need backup plans -- and how long will the Nationals wait on Rendon and Strasburg, given that Boras clients often don't sign until the start of spring training? If Rendon leaves, the third-base market in free agency is pretty thin -- Josh Donaldson and maybe Mike Moustakas (he has a mutual option with the Brewers) and older guys like Todd Frazier and Asdrubal Cabrera. Prospect Carter Kieboom would be an option at third base as well, especially because he doesn't look like a shortstop.
If Strasburg departs, the Nationals could look to sign one of the other free-agent starters: Zack Wheeler, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Jake Odorizzi, Madison Bumgarner, Rick Porcello, Cole Hamels, maybe even bring back Tanner Roark. Again, however, if you wait on Strasburg until March, those guys might all be off the board. Good luck, GM Mike Rizzo.
3. How do they fix the bullpen?
Throughout all the success the Nationals have had since 2012, the bullpen has mostly been an ongoing issue. It's the one area Rizzo never seems to fix properly. Last offseason, it was signing Trevor Rosenthal and acquiring Kyle Barraclough, one guy coming off an injury and the other off a bad season. We know how that worked out. The Nationals ended up with a 5.66 bullpen ERA, worst in the majors. Unacceptable for a contender, and while some deadline trades added a little depth, we finally saw the depth issues hurt them in the World Series.
They'll pick up Sean Doolittle's $6.5 million option, Tanner Rainey has the arm to be a potential weapon and Wander Suero has some upside, but Daniel Hudson is a free agent and even if some of the other arms like Austin Voth develop, they'll have to add via free agency or trade. Among the top relievers in free agency: Will Smith, Will Harris, Joe Smith, Drew Pomeranz, Chris Martin, Dellin Betances (coming off an injury) and maybe Aroldis Chapman (if he opts out). Look for the Nationals to sign one of those guys -- especially if they have money left over after failing to sign Rendon and/or Strasburg.
4. Will Ryan Zimmerman return?
Mr. National has an $18 million club option, but the Nats will instead exercise a $2 million buyout. Zimmerman hit just .257/.321/.415 in 52 games this year and he's played 100 games just twice in the past six seasons. He can still hit lefties, but you can't rely on his health, so if he wants to keep playing and the Nationals want to bring him back, it should only be as a platoon guy at first base or right-handed bat off the bench (although it's hard to carry a first-base-only guy on the bench these days).
Matt Adams has a $4 million mutual option, but he also had a bad season with an 83 OPS+. The first-base market in free agency is a similar mix of below-average 30-somethings. Yuck. Actually, the best option may be re-signing Kendrick and making him a full-time first baseman. He doesn't really have the range to play second base, but he can still hit.
5. Speaking of, what do you do at second base?
Kendrick, Cabrera and Brian Dozier are all free agents. Hey, Wilmer Difo is still here! This points to the larger issues with the Nationals. Their player development system hasn't exactly churned out quality depth through the years -- they've done well with the first-round picks, although Strasburg and Bryce Harper were No. 1 overall picks and Rendon was sixth overall. They bought Scherzer and Corbin. They did sign Soto and Victor Robles out of Latin America, but the inability of the farm system to produce enough talent has led to some of the bullpen issues through the years and trying to find stopgap veterans like Dozier to fill holes. Sometimes that has worked; sometimes it hasn't.
Anyway, if Rendon re-signs, Kieboom is the likely option at second base after hitting .303/.409/.493 at Triple-A Fresno. The best second basemen in free agency are ... well, Dozier, Cabrera and Jonathan Schoop. Add it all up and the Nationals are probably going to look a lot like they did in 2019. They just hope that includes Rendon and Strasburg.