HOUSTON -- With more than 300 regular-season wins in three years, the Houston Astros have flirted with dynastic status -- or the closest thing we'll get to it in 21st-century baseball. Despite a crushing loss in Game 7 of the World Series, their contention window remains wide open. On the field, at least, there has never been a better time to be an Astro.
Still, no team heads into the offseason free of pesky questions. The irony for great teams is that their dilemmas are more interesting than the dilemmas of other teams because their players are better and inherently more compelling. They have every reason to be contented, but worrisome topics are always peering around the corner.
So it goes for the American League-champion Astros. Here's a sneak peek at some of the key questions Houston will confront during the hot stove season that just began.
1. Can they re-sign Gerrit Cole?
Cole is almost certainly going to end up with the richest pitching contract in history. The current mark is the seven-year, $217 million deal David Price signed with Boston. Cole hits the open market on a historic run, with just one loss since May 22 -- the loss he took in Game 1 of the World Series. He recovered from that to dominate the Nationals in Game 5. He is a special pitcher, durable, nasty, cerebral -- the entire package. His age actually works in his favor, as he is an ace who has survived his 20s to put up more innings than ever. For top-level starters, there is a Darwinist effect at play. Seven years? Eight years? Nine? With Scott Boras negotiating, anything is possible. But $270 million to $300 million seems doable after the October Cole just put up.
Can the Astros afford that neighborhood? Let's say it'll take an eight-year, $275 million deal, which is $34.4 million per season. In his last year of arbitration, Cole made $13.5 million for his dazzling 2019 campaign. That is roughly a $21 million raise, one that would stay in effect for eight years, in terms of average annual value.
Houston's 2019 payroll ranked sixth in baseball at just a shade under $200 million, according to Cot's Contracts, which is about $6 million under the luxury-tax threshold. The Astros have never ventured into luxury-tax waters. Just before the playoffs, Houston owner Jim Crane told the Houston Chronicle that he would prefer to stay under the tax line.
Well, something has to give. We'll get into a bit more detail shortly, but if the Astros were to accommodate Cole's market price, good players would have to be moved and Houston would almost certainly have to forgo pursuit of other free agents. On top of that, the Astros' mantra all through their rebuild and ascension has been sustainability. They've kept their prospect pipeline flowing and held the line in salary negotiations. A full-out pursuit of Cole doesn't seem to fit that paradigm.
And consider this: The Astros have won the AL West the past three seasons by a combined 37 games. Even without Cole, they would field a good rotation. Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke will be back to head the group. Rookie Jose Urquidy should get a chance to be a big league starter. Lance McCullers Jr. is already back throwing after undergoing Tommy John surgery late last year. Plus, the Astros have a number of highly regarded starting prospects.
The most likely outcome is that the Astros generate the perception that they are bidding to keep Cole but refuse to go past a certain number, one they probably have already calculated. Cole will end up elsewhere, the Astros will still be good, and some other fan base will be very excited.
2. Do they need to overhaul the organizational culture?
The postseason controversy that resulted in the termination of assistant general manager Brandon Taubman turned into a widespread condemnation of how the Astros run their organization. Almost none of this -- if any at all -- has anything to do with the players, manager AJ Hinch or his coaching staff.
Thus it falls to Crane and general manager Jeff Luhnow to do a little bit of internal inventory. Only they can know the answers to these questions: Have we created a culture in which the ends always justify the means? Have we created an operation people are proud to be a part of? Do we care how we are perceived in the industry?
Again, only they can answer these questions, and they should do so honestly. Because at some point, you'll be able to hire only who you can get instead of who you want.
3. Do they trade George Springer?
Springer is entering his fourth and final year of arbitration, and the model used at MLB Trade Rumors estimates he'll earn $21.4 million next season. He's 30 years old, a face of the franchise, a key part of the team's clubhouse culture and a very good player to boot. Springer is coming off a season in which he hit a career-best 39 homers with another personal best in OPS: .974.
How does sustainability play into this? What is Springer's market value, as opposed to his value to the Astros' brand and culture? Do these things align in a way that could result in an extension offer?
If not, the Astros have two choices: Plan to let Springer walk after next season, presumably after tendering a qualifying offer that would trigger a compensatory draft pick, or trade him. If they trade Springer, they probably want to do it this winter. The most likely outcome is the Astros let things play out and keep their core intact for 2020 while trying to retain Springer on some sort of team-friendly extension. Failing that, they make him the qualifying offer.
But they at least have to listen to curious trade inquirers.
4. Which of the other free agents do they pursue?
Right now, in addition to Cole, the Astros will have catchers Robinson Chirinos and Martin Maldonado, relievers Will Harris, Joe Smith and Hector Rondon, starter Wade Miley and swingman Collin McHugh hitting the open market. Maldonado is not eligible for a qualifying offer. The others are but probably won't get one -- except, of course, Cole.
Harris and Smith might have both earned themselves a good bit of interest with their outstanding performances in the offseason. You figure the Astros will remain in on re-signing them while allowing McHugh to go. Also, it isn't easy to find offense/defense catchers the quality of Chirinos.
However, the bottom line is that the Astros' financial flexibility is thin. They have good pitching depth in the system. They'll sign a veteran buy-low arm or three, but chances are, most or all of their free agents will be playing elsewhere by the time spring training rolls around.
5. How high will arbitration take the Houston payroll?
If Crane prefers to steer clear of the tax line, Luhnow and his staff will have to get creative. With Springer, Roberto Osuna and Carlos Correa all likely to get arbitration-fueled raises, the Astros' payroll is swelling. That's without re-signing any of their prospective free agents. A back-of-the-envelope estimate suggests that bringing back the same group sans Cole and the other free agents could result in a payroll of more than $220 million. That would be $14 million or so on the wrong side of the luxury tax threshold.
Cuts will have to be made. There could be some nontenders in the offing for arbitration-eligible performers such as Aledmys Diaz, Joe Biagini, Brad Peacock and maybe others. The Astros are going to have to get more mileage next season out of their talented but unproven pre-arb players. It's just the way baseball works.
Success is what you strive for. But success, when sustained, becomes awfully expensive in the sports universe. The big question underpinning all the little ones for the Astros to answer this winter will simply be: How expensive are we willing to get?