The switch between the World Series and the hot stove league flips instantaneously. The champagne has barely dried and the victory parade has barely subsided before we start trying to figure out how the next season is going to look.
We usually can stave off our curiosity until the World Series actually ends because, after all, it's the premier event in sports. (I will have words with anyone who argues otherwise.) However, this year's Fall Classic serves as a perfect segue into the offseason because it will be a perfect showcase for the two most highly coveted players in the free-agent class to come: Astros ace Gerrit Cole (who struggled some in Game 1) and Nationals third baseman Anthony Rendon.
If you are a fan of the Astros or Nationals, your focus is on the next three to six games. A championship is on the line. Houston has just one of those in its trophy case. Washington has only the title won by the Senators back in 1924. You can understand why these fan bases don't exactly want to think about the free-agent season.
For the fans of the other 28 teams, though, it's a mixed experience. Sure, it's the World Series, and that's great stuff on the face of it. But every time Cole mows down a hitter with a high four-seamer or Tony Two Bags drives in a run with a gapper, you can't help but think ... yeah, it would be pretty nice to get that guy.
Doing so will be expensive. Both players could command deals in the range of seven years and exceed $30 million per. Both are 29 years old (Rendon is three months older than Cole). Current trends seem to be that ace starters over 30 are becoming more precious, while 30-something position players are losing their allure. Both of these players are so good that it's hard to say whether those trends will impact them all that much. Either way, they are about to get very, very wealthy.
How realistic are your fleeting fantasies of landing one of these studs? Let's run through these in terms of fit. For both players, we've rated the "fit" for each team from one to five stars. The star rating is based on a few factors: anticipated spending room, the team's place on the contention cycle and whether a positional need exists.
But on the latter point, let's be clear: Cole and Rendon fit on every team. They are so good that if they want to play for your team and you can afford to pay them, you figure out a way to make it work. Some fits, though, are better than others. Let's take a look.
Gerrit Cole
1-star fits: Arizona Diamondbacks, Baltimore Orioles, Chicago Cubs, Cleveland Indians, Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals, Miami Marlins, New York Mets, Pittsburgh Pirates, Tampa Bay Rays, Washington Nationals
The Diamondbacks didn't clear most of Zack Greinke's remaining contract to then spend another $200 million-plus to replace him. They simply can't be sustainable by sinking that much payroll into one roster spot. The Orioles, Tigers, Royals and Marlins aren't advanced enough into their rebuilds to be investing in that kind of free-agent deal. The Cubs need to cut payroll; the Indians already have. The Pirates and Rays don't play this high-stakes game.
The Mets -- well, it's always hard to predict what the Mets are going to do. Based on recent spending patterns, they wouldn't have the payroll space to go after Cole, and they have already invested heavily in their rotation. But ... they're the Mets.
As for the Nationals, signing Cole would mean they would have the most expensive rotation in history. And a frightening one. It's kind of cool to ponder: the Billion Dollar Rotation. But it can't happen. If the Nationals are going to expand their payroll in this way, it'll be in an effort to retain Rendon.
2-star fits: Boston Red Sox, Colorado Rockies, Milwaukee Brewers, Oakland Athletics
The story for these teams is the same: They just don't have the spending capacity to wade into Cole-level waters. But they all sure could use him.
3-star fits: Cincinnati Reds, Houston Astros, Philadelphia Phillies, Seattle Mariners
The Reds say they are going to expand payroll, so though the numbers under the hood of this analysis suggest that Cincinnati is kind of stretched already, it's impossible to know whether that's true without knowing just how much this team is willing to spend. But this doesn't seem like a great fit, even given Cincinnati's bid to become the game's most heavily analytic pitching operation.
The Astros draw three stars because they already have Cole, and he is well liked in the clubhouse, and we've seen him flourish in that environment. Removing money from the equation, the Astros are a five-star fit. But as Houston's talented position players advance in service time, its roster is about to get really expensive. It's hard to see the Astros being able to spring for Cole's market value.
Who knows what's going on with the Phillies, but they are another team that would need to further expand its payroll to land Cole. In baseball terms, they need him badly, something that is true of Rendon as well.
The Mariners draw three stars because they have plenty of money to spend. Although they are early into a soft rebuild, it wouldn't be shocking to see Seattle operate in a similar fashion to what we've seen San Diego do the past couple of offseasons. The Mariners aren't one player away, but they might look at a multiseason landscape, see a dearth of elite free agents and decide this is the time to lock one down.
4-star fits: Atlanta Braves, Minnesota Twins, San Diego Padres, San Francisco Giants, St. Louis Cardinals, Texas Rangers, Toronto Blue Jays
Some of these teams might be more like 3.5 stars, so let's start with them. We're talking the Rangers, Blue Jays and Giants. These teams all have what seems like a good deal of spending capacity. The Giants are a team with which Cole is familiar -- he's married to the sister of San Francisco shortstop Brandon Crawford -- but it's fair to wonder how much longer Crawford will be a Giant. Still, Oracle Park seems like a great place for Cole to pitch. Any actual pursuit might depend on just how quickly Giants lead exec Farhan Zaidi thinks he can turn things around.
The Rangers and Blue Jays both have money and a desperate need for starting pitchers, not to mention what appear to be shorter rebuild timelines than those of the similar teams mentioned above. However, it seems like both clubs might have to overspend to draw Cole's interest.
The Braves, Twins, Padres and Cardinals can all be viewed through the same prism: Cole could be the No. 1 starter needed to push those teams to the next tier. All, save for the Padres, figure to have the flexibility to make a major investment. For San Diego, it would mean another payroll expansion, but that's the route the Padres have gone the past two offseasons, so you never know.
5-star fits: Chicago White Sox, Los Angeles Angels, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees
The White Sox are a dark horse, but they combine the ability to invest in a top-level contract with a roster that appears ready to break through. And they play in a big market but on a team that doesn't invite that bright of a media spotlight. Cole would head a starting rotation that might be on the cusp of becoming something special, with or without him.
The Angels and Yankees don't have obvious spending flexibility. The Angels would have to expand payroll, but if you have Mike Trout and you hire Joe Maddon to be your manager, aren't you focused on the here and now? The combination of fit and need might be better between SoCal native Cole and the Angels than it is with any other team on the board today. Unless ...
It's the Dodgers. L.A.'s need for a stud starter isn't acute, but Cole would obviously help this team. And the Dodgers should have room to add a top-level contract. Of course, they might prefer to target Rendon with that flexibility.
The Yankees might have to shadowbox with the luxury-tax line, but after their ALCS disappointment, the clamor to pursue Cole is considerable. Plus, Cole's father is a longtime Yankees fan. New York drafted Cole, only to see him head to UCLA. Years later, the Yankees lost out to the Astros when the Pirates put Cole on the trading block. Could the third time be the charm?
Anthony Rendon
1-star fits: Orioles, Cubs, Tigers, Royals, Pirates, Rays, Red Sox, Rockies, Brewers, Athletics, Astros, Braves, Twins, Padres
Most of these are obvious. We'll note that a few teams here simply don't need a third-base/infield upgrade so much that they'd want to target their dollars at Rendon rather than spreading them around to other spots. Those teams include the Cubs, Boston, Colorado, Oakland, Houston, Atlanta, Minnesota and San Diego. Houston is an interesting one: Rendon is a Houston native, still lives in the city during the winter and occasionally works out with Astros outfielder George Springer. But the payroll issues for Houston mentioned above are legit, and the Astros have a pretty good third baseman already in Alex Bregman.
2-star fits: Marlins, Mariners, Giants, Yankees
If you strain yourself, you could see a pursuit here from any of these clubs, but you really would have to strain. Of these, the Marlins might make the most sense from the standpoint of showing their fan base that they are committed to pushing things forward with their rebuild. Goodness knows the Marlins ought to have the payroll space. And while they've put together a pretty nice group of young pitchers at the big league level and below, the organization needs some near-term position player production. You figure the Marlins would have to overspend by a good amount, but don't they owe the fans in Miami the effort at the very least?
3-star fits: Diamondbacks, Mets, Reds, Phillies, Blue Jays, White Sox, Angels
There are different reasons that Rendon is a fence-straddling proposition for each of these teams. The Diamondbacks, Mets and Phillies might not be able to spend. The Reds and Blue Jays might not want to spend on a third baseman -- Eugenio Suarez and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., respectively, are pretty good. The Angels could use Rendon in a baseball sense, but if they are going to go big on a free-agent contract, it has to be for a starting pitcher, with Cole the obvious target. The White Sox ... maybe. Chicago needs a big bat. Although the White Sox seem set with a future infield that includes Yoan Moncada, Tim Anderson and Nick Madrigal, if you can sign Rendon, you figure it out. Maybe Anderson moves to center field, Madrigal moves to short, and Moncada goes back to second. It would be a nice problem to have.
4-star fits: Indians, Cardinals, Rangers, Dodgers
The Indians' ability to develop starting pitching opens the door for an expenditure on a bat, which they need. Rendon fits positionally, as Jose Ramirez can be bumped to second base. But will the Indians spend? Probably not. The Cardinals might be in that small-spending boat as well. But as with the Dodgers, who fall into this category as well, Rendon is not just the impact two-way player the Redbirds need; he is the exact kind of hitter they need. Rendon would balance and coalesce the lineups in both St. Louis and Los Angeles. As for the Rangers, there is no one to block Rendon positionally, and they have money to spend.
5-star fits: Nationals
Doesn't this make the most sense in the end?