This year's list of the best players under 25 was shaken up a bit at the top by a season for the ages in the making.
Cody Bellinger took this group by storm. We knew he was good but didn't know he was this good -- and didn't expect him to be at the very top of the list.
This list is limited to players whose seasonal ages for 2019 are 24 or younger -- that is, any player who will not yet have turned 25 by July 1, 2019.
1. Cody Bellinger (Age: 23): I didn't see this coming -- and I was very high on Bellinger as a prospect, ranking him in my top five overall in his last year of eligibility. What I didn't expect was for Bellinger to become a high-contact hitter. I figured we'd get walks, homers, strikeouts, elite defense at first or very good defense in center, but, yeah, strikeouts. He has cut his strikeout rate nearly in half from 2017 to 2019 (so far). He also has gone from being a near-automatic out against left-handed pitchers (a .226/.306/.376 line in 2018) to Katy-bar-the-door vs. lefties (.355/.460/.720 this year). One wonders if the 2017 World Series would have played out differently if this year's version of Bellinger were in that Dodgers lineup.
2. Ronald Acuña Jr. (21): Atlanta supposedly wouldn't part with Acuna last year in a trade for Christian Yelich, and even though Yelich has turned into a power-hitting superstar, GM Alex Anthopoulos has to feel good about the decision. Acuña, the No. 1 prospect going into 2018, has already produced 6.7 fWAR in 190 career games, is gradually taking over center field (as he should) in Atlanta, and has become more disciplined at the plate in just his second year in the majors.
3. Fernando Tatis Jr. (20): Tatis, my No. 1 prospect coming into this season, has exceeded even my expectations for him; on a WAR/500 PA basis, he's tied for second in the majors among players 24 and under. He's also rocking a .427 BABIP, which won't last, but he already has a solid track record of improving his selectivity at the plate, and is one of the youngest players on this list at age 20.
4. Carlos Correa (24): Correa should be at the top of this list, shouldn't he? A former No. 1 overall pick, a former top-three overall prospect, a player who had back-to-back 6 WAR seasons before he turned 24 ... but he can't seem to stay healthy, with 2019 the third year in a row he's likely to fall short of qualifying for the batting title.
5. Vlad Guerrero Jr. (20): The start to Baby Vlad's career hasn't been quite what Blue Jays fans expected -- remember the breathless preseason articles about projection systems making him a top-20 player in the game? -- but he'll be fine, and his batted-ball data implies he's already fine, just having some bad luck on balls in play and hitting the ball on the ground too often. He has been as expected in one area of his game, though, showing up as below average on defense at third.
6. Gleyber Torres (22): The power output has surprised me, although with the MLB baseball flying the way it does, I suppose I should be surprised when any good hitter doesn't hit 20-plus homers a year. Torres hits for average and hard, line-drive contact; he understands the strike zone; he even acquitted himself well while filling in at shortstop for Didi Gregorius. I think there's more upside in his OBP and won't be shocked at all if he grows into a hitter who draws 75 walks a year, and still does all the things he does now.
7. Rafael Devers (22): Not only is Devers hitting for average and some power this year at age 22, he ranks 23rd out of 78 qualifying AL hitters in strikeout rate. There's 30-homer power here -- OK, that doesn't mean what it used to mean, but he has huge raw power, and he has barely scratched the surface. He also has improved quite a bit on defense at third base, and I maintain, as I have before, that he will be able to stay there.
8. Juan Soto (20): This is an entirely arbitrary endpoint, but I just find it fun to look at: Since May 17, Soto is hitting .380/.453/.643, with 17 walks and only 23 strikeouts in 150 plate appearances. He has 189 career games now with a .404 OBP, and I think he's actually getting better.
9. Walker Buehler (24): I don't think Buehler is any sort of secret after last October, but he's barely walking anybody this year -- just 13 free passes in 91⅓ innings, and two of them appear to be have been semi-intentional (one to load the bases after a wild pitch, one to get to the pitcher's spot after a stolen base). Regardless, that kind of control with three above-average to plus pitches is just not fair. If he can sustain a full starter's workload, he's going to win a Cy Young Award at some point.
10. Pete Alonso (24): Alonso is on track to hit around 50 homers this year, which would put him in the top three all time for homers by a rookie; only two rookies have ever hit 40 homers in a season, Aaron Judge (52) and Mark McGwire (49). I suppose it's not a coincidence that all three did so in juiced-ball years, but they are/were all plus-plus power guys anyway. Alonso would be higher on this list if he were even an average defender at first, but he's not.
11. Shohei Ohtani (24): A year-plus into Ohtani's MLB career, do we really know what he is? He has huge power, runs very well and was very effective in 10 abbreviated starts on the mound, enough that there's probably a 6-WAR combination in here -- but he's recovering from Tommy John surgery and probably won't pitch until next year, and still doesn't hit full time. My friend Joe Sheehan has commented a few times on whether the Angels would be better off just committing to Ohtani doing one thing, and I'm wondering the same thing now that we have some data that shows he's making some adjustments at the plate to get to more contact.
12. Dominic Smith (24): When I said Tatis was tied for third in WAR/500 PA, did you guess the player with whom he was tied was Smith? The former first-round pick has excelled in very restricted playing time, because it's not as if the Mets can sit Alonso when he's homering twice a week, but I think Smith has made an argument for some other team to acquire him and play him regularly at first base, given that he has shown much-improved plate discipline and is getting to his power more frequently.
13. Lucas Giolito (24): It was a circuitous route to stardom, but Giolito seems to be there now, thanks to a shorter arm action he can repeat more easily, a much improved changeup and full health. He has gone from throwing strikes just over 60% of the time in 2018 to 65.5% of the time this year.
14. Yoan Moncada (24): This is probably what Moncada is going to be, barring some major change in his swing -- very hard contact coupled with a high strikeout rate. He's third in the majors in BABIP this year, behind David Dahl (boosted by Coors Field) and Brandon Lowe, so there's some regression coming ... but probably not a ton, as when Moncada makes contact, it's not weak. His Statcast-derived expected BABIP for the year, according MLB's Baseball Savant, is .383, close to his actual BABIP of .387. I wrote at the time the White Sox acquired Moncada that he was "a poor second baseman with a plus arm who's developing into an above-average defender at third." After two years of bad defense at second base, Moncada is now at third, and through half a season it looks as if that's his home.
15. Ozzie Albies (22): The talk around Albies has centered on the overly team-friendly contract he signed, but we should be talking more about how much he has improved at the plate, working the count more, swinging less at pitches in the zone he can't drive, making more contact when he does expand the zone. And he's still only 22.
16. Carson Kelly (24): Kelly just needed to play, and now that he's getting that opportunity, he's making the most of it, driving the ball more than ever before, receiving and framing well, and throwing out 36% of potential base stealers. I do think he's a disciplined hitter, but keep in mind that his walk rate has been aided by batting eighth in the Arizona lineup most of the season.
17. German Marquez (24): Marquez has been an above-average to elite starter for close to a calendar year now, succeeding even without a viable changeup, as his knuckle-curve has proved too tough even for left-handed batters to hit. I know the Rockies are on the edge of the playoff race, but if they should have a rough July, they could probably get a king's ransom for Marquez, who'd be the best starter available and has three years of team control before being eligible for free agency.
18. Chris Paddack (23): Paddack has shown plus command of a fastball up to 97 and a wipeout changeup, probably a grade 70 and you could convince me that was low, certainly enough to get by with just a fringy breaking ball. His superb performance has been helped by a very pitcher-friendly home park, but he's also just good, and I think he can be a No. 2 starter without any improvement in his third pitch because the changeup is so good.
19. Mike Soroka (21): If healthy, Soroka is the best under-24 pitcher in the game (which takes Buehler and Giolito out of the running). He's got a filthy two-seamer to get ground balls, and the life on that pitch makes his slider even tougher on right-handers. He just can't seem to stay healthy; he has missed two stretches in the past two years because of shoulder soreness and is day-to-day right now because of forearm tightness.
20. Adalberto Mondesi (23): I think this is a pretty good picture of what Mondesi can be as a player -- plus defense, plus-plus speed, added value as a baserunner, not much power, high BABIP because his speed helps him create a few hits a year. He's just not a disciplined hitter at all and never has been one.
21. Nick Senzel (23): Senzel's debut was much delayed by injuries, and he has been solid so far at the plate, striking out a little more than I expected, but with plenty of power given the type of hitter he is. He has been a little below average in center, and I've said a few times I think that position wastes his defensive abilities in the infield, but at least they're getting him in the lineup every day.
22. Andrew Benintendi (24): Benintendi qualifies for this list by five days; he'll turn 25 on July 6. He has been good, but I expected great, and I think the Red Sox did too when they selected the Golden Spikes winner seventh overall in 2015. There should be more power than he has shown the last year and a half; he makes hard contact and puts the ball in the air, but he has been more of a 40-doubles guy than a 20-homers guy, even though everyone seems to be a 20-homers guy. He's still a patient hitter who puts the ball in play a lot and provides value on defense, so I'm including him this last time as a nod to the power surge I still foresee in the near future.
23. Eloy Jimenez (22): Still just 22 and hampered by injuries this year, Jimenez remains more projection than production, with power the one part of his game that has translated in his first half-season in the majors. He was always a more disciplined hitter in the minors and he'll get there in time, but his defense might just be below average, maybe enough that he has to move to another spot. I still think he'll end up with high-.300 OBPs and 30-plus homers, which will play at any position.
24. Austin Meadows (24): One of the players who went back to Tampa Bay in the Chris Archer trade, Meadows got off to a huge start this year and seemed to finally be tapping into his strength and size for power, after a couple of years of injuries and a swing that cut off that power and often put the ball on the ground. While the Meadows we saw in April/May (.354/.431/.673, 12 HR) was unsustainable, the version from so far in June (.209/.277/.326, 0 HR since May 28) seems too far in the other direction. I think he's an above-average regular for a while, with another gear if he gets to that power more frequently.
25. Jack Flaherty (23): It has been a rougher go for Flaherty in 2019 so far, although some of that is fluky (he has been homer-prone well beyond what you'd expect from his profile) and some not (he's also giving up harder contact and more line drives). He's a command guy who has lost a little command but whose pure stuff is intact, and he is younger than most MLB starters -- last year only two other pitchers 23 and under threw more innings than Flaherty, and both Marquez and Giolito are on this list. I believe Flaherty will get back to his 2018 level and settle in as a mid-rotation starter for some time.