Grayson Rodriguez was the 10th overall pick in 2018, a pop-up high school arm out of a Texas high school who was bumping 98 mph all spring with what was reportedly an above-average breaking ball, earning some comparisons to the top prep arm in the class, Carter Stewart. Rodriguez has been dominating in low-A so far this year for the Delmarva Shorebirds, doing it more with pure stuff than command or control, and while he has a lot of upside between his size and arm strength, there are major delivery red flags.
Rodriguez was 94-96 for five innings against Lakewood, giving up a leadoff single and then retiring the next 14 hitters he faced before he was replaced by a reliever. He elevated the fastball well for swings and misses but also got some late swings in the zone from hitters who couldn't catch up to him. He showed some promise on the curveball, and you could see an above-average pitch there in the future, although it wasn't there Tuesday night. At its best, it had 11/5 break with good spin and some depth in the zone. He also mixed in a slider, 82-83 mph and well below average, and a few changeups.
Rodriguez's delivery is really stiff and abrupt, failing to make much use of his lower half, with a cutoff in his landing that has him a little across his body when he goes to his glove side. His arm is consistently late because of a pause in his delivery that also robs him of the momentum he builds up before that point, although he's barely over the rubber and doesn't have a ton of it to begin with. It is kind of amazing he can throw as hard as he does as long as he does.
Rodriguez has crushed low-A hitters with velocity and a decent breaking ball, but his stat line implies command and control that aren't really there; hitters at this level can't catch up to him. His delivery is tough to repeat, and he is going to have to improve two of the three secondary pitches to reach his ceiling as an above-average starter. A reader asked on Twitter if I thought he projected as an ace, but I see no way that happens with his current arm action. He's still third in the Orioles' system for me, behind the No. 1 overall pick this month, Adley Rutschman, and Baltimore's first-round pick from 2017, D.L. Hall.
* One of the Phillies' top prospects, Luis Garcia (No. 69 on my top 100 in January), has been struggling so far as an 18-year-old in low-A, although to me it looks more like a question of strength than skill. Garcia's at bats were good, and he showed he could turn on 94 and protect against 96 up, but the ball just didn't go anywhere off his bat, and in an at-bat against a right-handed reliever, he got ahead in the count and then waved twice at 91-92 in the zone. He struck out again to end the game, although in that case the pitch was 99 mph. He's a natural shortstop but played second base Tuesday. The Phillies do have a long history of pushing 18-year-old prospects who aren't physically mature to full-season ball -- Carlos Tocci and Daniel Brito come to mind -- and Garcia seems to fit that category.
* Shortstop Adam Hall, my sleeper prospect for the Orioles coming into 2019, is having a very solid year so far for a 20-year-old in low-A, hitting .320/.391/.414 so far while splitting time between short and second. He showed great range to his left while playing second Tuesday, but I'd rather see him at short, where I think he's capable enough to stick and his bat will be much more valuable. He showed good bat speed Tuesday night but had a hard time with changing speeds, striking out on a changeup when he was way out in front and getting fooled again by a changeup that he grounded to second.
* Caden Grenier is too old for low-A, drafted last year out of Oregon State, but looked overmatched by a fringe prospect lefty, waving right through 91 down the middle for a strikeout, then striking out again on three pitches, chasing a curveball down and away. He later blooped a single to center on a 94 mph pitch in on his hands, then struck out again on three pitches, cutting through 88 mph middle-in. He should be demolishing pitching at this level given his age and experience, and if he's not hitting, he shouldn't be blocking Hall at shortstop, either.
* Lefty Jhordany Mezquita started for Lakewood and was ordinary, 90-93 with a fringy curveball and below-average changeup. Dom Pipkin couldn't complete an inning of relief. He was 92-97 with 30 command, with a below-average slider, and failed to cover home on a passed-ball third strike that would have ended the inning but instead led to a runner scoring from second.
* Delmarva's last pitcher was 24-year-old right-hander Felix Bautista, who didn't get out of the DSL until 2018, and this was his first appearance ever in full-season ball. Bautista was 94-99, the high velocity coming on the final pitch of the game, but threw just one offspeed pitch in two innings of work. It's a pure reliever delivery but the arm strength is real.
* Deivi Garcia, the Yankees' No. 1 prospect & No. 61 overall coming into 2019, was nails for the second time for me this year, coming off a 15-strikeout outing to punch out nine guys in five no-hit innings that even had him throwing a new pitch. Throwing on Monday night in Trenton, Garcia was 91-96 against Reading with an above-average to plus curveball at 77-80 that was his best pitch for getting into the zone, an above-average mid-80s changeup, and now a new slider at 84-87 with good tilt and some late bite, close to a cutter in shape. His command is still below-average, and now that I've seen him for nine innings in two starts I think it's probably a delivery issue; there's some effort here and he finishes abruptly enough that I don't think he can really command any pitch out of his hand. That said, the delivery gives him ridiculous deception, and hitters cut through his fastball like he's throwing 102 or has huge spin (he doesn't), and I wouldn't change it. He is on the small side for a starter, which is probably the main concern for him remaining in the rotation, but I'd leave him there as long as he holds up.
* The Phillies' last three first-round picks were all in the lineup that Garcia and two relievers no-hit on Monday, batting 1-2-3, and they ... had no hits, as you might have guessed. Adam Haseley led off and was hit by a pitch, but Garcia then depantsed him twice, getting him on a fastball away followed by 95 up and in, then getting him to chase a curveball down, swing through 95 down the middle, and chase another curveball down. His one ball in play was a weak 1-3 when the pitcher jammed him on a mid-80s fastball. I've had concerns about Haseley's ability to make hard contact or even catch up with good velocity with such a handsy swing and it looks the same as it did last year.
* Alec Bohm batted second and probably looked the best of any of these guys, although that's a low bar. His body is substantially cleaned up from last year, when he wasn't heavy but just big; he's probably a first baseman in the long run but at least he's giving himself a chance to stay at third with improved conditioning. He also struck out twice against Garcia, but had better at bats, seeing 13 pitches between them, and fouled off some tough pitches, and hit one hard ground ball in his last at bat.
* Mickey Moniak only struck out once but everything he hit in play was weak, and he didn't look comfortable in right field. He and left fielder Cornelius Randolph, their previous first-rounder who played left and gave up on a foul pop up only to have it land fair, didn't look good. * Neither did Trenton reliever Domingo Acevedo, 91-94 now with a delivery that still doesn't allow him to repeat or throw strikes, stiff at release, with a low 3/4 slot and hard falloff. He throws like he's throwing a pie, not a baseball, which is a waste of a good arm and of pie.
* Last week, I caught Astros right-hander Manny Ramirez -- no relation, unfortunately -- pitching at Aberdeen, and he showed the two pitches to project to some major-league role, although I'm not sure he can project as a starter. Ramirez was 92-96 with an out pitch in an 80-82 mph curveball that looked like it really spun. His changeup was too firm at 87-90 and he had no feel for it. He's listed at 5-11 and has a short arm stroke, although it's pretty clean and he repeats it well. If he had a viable third pitch and showed better present control, I'd consider a starter role for him. He's still young enough to get there, but at least there's a floor here from the fastball/curveball combination.
* Orioles right-hander Leonardo Rodriguez is 6-7 with the long levers you'd expect from that frame, which gives him a little trouble repeating his delivery, although there's the potential that he could get his 92-96 mph fastball to play up if he extends better over his front side. His curveball was fringy and he barely used his changeup.
* Shortstop Joey Ortiz, the Orioles' fourth-round pick this month, looked solid in the field but couldn't sniff Ramirez's fastball, as he was way behind 95 mph.
* The Astros' first pick, catcher Korey Lee, only DH'd in this game (although a scout who saw him a few days later recorded a plus-plus throwing time from him), with two infield singles and two weak outs. He's off to a great start in short-season ball but seemed to have a hard time adjusting to changing speeds, getting fooled a few times by offspeed stuff where he was way out in front.
* Right-hander Peyton Battenfeld was the Astros' ninth pick this month, a straight reliever at Oklahoma State, and he looks like a good value pick for that round. He was 92-93 from a high 3/4 slot and showed an above-average changeup at 84-85, boosted by a little deception from the delivery. His curveball was a 45 at best, kind of slurvy, lacking the depth you'd hope to get from the high slot. He's a strike-thrower and I would guess he'll do well getting left-handed batters out, so he could be a full-inning reliever rather than a specialist.