We already ran down the top 100 prospects in baseball, so now it's time go deeper by division. Today it's the AL Central, starting with the Chicago White Sox.
To jump to the other teams, click here: Indians | Tigers | Royals | Twins
Division overviews: NL East | NL Central | NL West | AL East | AL West
Editor's note: Age is the player's age as of July 1, 2018. Players with experience in foreign major leagues such as Japan's NPB or Korea's KBO -- think Shohei Ohtani -- are ineligible for these rankings.
Chicago White Sox
Chicago promoted two top-20 overall prospects to the majors last year in Yoan Moncada and Lucas Giolito, as well as hard-throwing right-hander Reynaldo Lopez, so those three do not appear in the rankings or count toward my evaluation of the team's system as a whole.
1. Eloy Jimenez, OF (ranked No. 6)
2. Michael Kopech, RHP (ranked No. 11)
3. Luis Robert, OF (ranked No. 46)
4. Alec Hansen, RHP (ranked No. 49)
5. Dylan Cease, RHP
6. Dane Dunning, RHP
7. Jake Burger, 3B
8. Blake Rutherford, OF
9. Micker Adolfo, OF
10. Zack Collins, C
Non-top-100 prospects
Dylan Cease was a top-100 prospect while in the Cubs' system but saw his stuff fall off enough last year, his first time throwing more than 50 innings in a pro season, to bump his projection down a full grade or so. He has hit triple-digit velocity in the past but pitches more at 95-98 mph, with an above-average curveball and average mid-80s changeup. His fastball is very straight, and his command of all three pitches is still grade 40. However, he has barely pitched at all as a pro -- since Tommy John surgery in 2014, he has thrown 162 total innings, more than half of that last year -- and there might be a lot more growth here, given his lack of experience. (Also, yet more evidence that pitcher wins are worthless: Cease posted a 3.28 ERA on the year, striking out 32 percent of the batters he faced ... and his record was 1-10.)
Dane Dunning's first full year as a starter was a big success, as the former University of Florida reliever made 26 starts, most in high-A, and held his stuff through the year. He'll show batters four pitches, all of which can at least show above-average. He has good sink and solid velocity on his fastball, plus a slider, curve and the changeup, with that last pitch the worst of his four offerings. He can get a little too cross-body at times, and his control is ahead of his command, but I think he's a future midrotation starter.
Jake Burger was Chicago's first-round pick in 2017 and makes a ton of hard contact, projecting to hit for average and power, with his position the biggest question. He's a poor third baseman now, heavy-footed for the role, but he has good instincts, a plus arm and more athleticism than his body type might imply. He was also a top hockey player growing up before turning to baseball full-time as a high school senior. If he hits like he's supposed to, his bat might be ready for the majors before his glove, forcing a move so the White Sox can get him in their lineup.
Blake Rutherford went from the Yankees' first-round pick in 2016 to disappointing prospect to one piece in a larger deal at the 2017 trade deadline, with Chicago buying low on a guy everyone rated highly just 13 months earlier. Rutherford was 19 at the time of the draft, so he played at 20 last year in low-A and just couldn't make an impact on the ball, hitting a light .260/.326/.348. His swing is still solid, direct to the ball, showing some loft for potential power, and his approach is fine. He put the ball in play a ton but hit it on the ground at an alarming rate (56.5 percent), which is just not going to work, especially considering he's most likely a left fielder in the end.
Micker Adolfo is a one-man toolshed, sort of Chicago's version of Estevan Florial, and he had by far his best year as a pro with his .264/.331/.453 line in low-A. He did punch out 149 times (32 percent), but that was down slightly from 2016, and he made better contact when he did put the ball in play. He did a better job of using the middle of the field and even going the other way a bit more. He's an average runner with a plus-plus arm and plus pull power, a definite right fielder if he hits enough. He has had injury issues and ended the year with a broken hand, which could sap his strength early in 2018.
Zack Collins drew 87 walks with 20 homers last year between high-A and Double-A, but he hit just .224 on the year with a 28 percent strikeout rate, as the substantial hitch in his swing makes him late to the zone too often. I can't see pitchers giving him those free passes at higher levels. He has a plus arm behind the plate and has worked hard on his receiving, though it's still more likely that he has to play somewhere else.
Their second-round pick in 2017, Gavin Sheets (11), is very strong, so while some of his 21 homers this spring as an amateur were probably aided by the bandbox at Wake Forest, I think some of that power is legitimate and will translate to pro ball. He's first-base-only, not very athletic and has some length to the swing that might cause left-on-left problems at the plate. He has a decent approach, so the floor here looks like a platoon bat at first, with above-average regular upside if he works on using the middle of the field more and can cut down his swing with two strikes.
Spencer Adams (12) still hasn't seen the velocity projected on him in high school arrive, but he'll show you a 55 slider and fringe-average changeup. If his command gets to above-average, he can still be a solid back-end starter. He's very athletic and should be able to get to that point, but it would help his cause if he could get to even consistent low 90s on the fastball. Carson Fulmer (13) has mixed in a cutter, but the high-effort delivery and full-bore approach still point to a future in relief, a role in which he'll likely miss a ton of bats facing hitters just one time in a game.
Lefty Ian Clarkin (14) had an oblique strain right after the White Sox acquired him with Rutherford in the Todd Frazier/David Robertson/Tommy Kahnle deal. Clarkin's changeup is now his best off-speed pitch, as the big curveball he showed in high school has been more average since he lost 2015 to injury. He's throwing 88-91 mph now, though the ball looks like it's going to come out of his arm harder than that. There's a good chance he's a No. 5 or below-average big league starter, and the hope is that he is more if he regains the plus breaking ball or adds velocity.
Luis Alexander Basabe (15), the third prospect acquired in the Chris Sale trade along with Moncada and Kopech, played through a knee injury for part of the summer and eventually had surgery in August, so his disappointing year at the plate might have an explanation. He's still raw overall but shows plus speed and arm strength, projecting to plus defense in center, with better feel from his natural right-handed side. He showed more power in 2016, which could easily have been impacted by any weakness in his lower half.
Outfielder Luis Gonzalez (16) has some off-field concerns, but on the field, he shows some ability to get on base and the arm to play right field, with power a question after he spent his college career in the ridiculous altitude of New Mexico. Right-handed reliever Zack Burdi (17) had Tommy John surgery in July and might be back by the end of the year. When healthy, he throws up to 100 mph heat complemented with a plus slider. Right-hander A.J. Puckett (18) has a good changeup and some deception in his delivery but can get too far on the first-base side of the rubber, giving right-handed batters too much of a look at the ball out of his hand. He might be a back-end starter, probably a No. 5.
A few others of note: Brazilian right-hander Thyago Vieira has hit 102 mph with his fastball but has poor command and hasn't found a consistent second pitch. ... Chicago picked up former first-round pick Casey Gillaspie in a July trade with Tampa Bay. Like his older brothers, he's strong but doesn't use his lower half to get to the power. He hit .223/.297/.373 in Triple-A, struggling from both sides of the plate, and he's limited to first base. ... Last year, Chicago took a pair of University of Louisville pitchers in Lincoln Henzman (fourth round) and Kade McClure (sixth). McClure is already a starter, throwing 90-93 mph while showing some depth on his curveball and good command, though he'll need a better changeup and his fastball can be hittable. Henzman pitched in relief for Louisville, but they hope to convert him to the rotation. He's been throwing in the low 90s with a good cutter. ... Seventh-rounder Evan Skoug was a catcher at TCU who hit for power with a ton of strikeouts last spring. He has work to do behind the plate and needs to make more contact, but in the seventh round, a power bat such as this is a good gamble to take.
2018 impact: The White Sox will be young in 2018, but most of their projected big-leaguers have lost rookie status. Fulmer should log time in the majors, either as a starter or in relief. No one else is close, though either Kopech or Dunning could see the majors by August or September.
Sleeper: A healthy Basabe who produces in Double-A like he did in 2016 would be a top-100 prospect. I'm also cautiously optimistic on Adolfo.
The fallen: First baseman Corey Zangari was the Sox's sixth-round pick in 2015, an over-slot signing who had huge power, but he had a disappointing 2016 and missed all of last year after Tommy John surgery.
Cleveland Indians
Things have thinned out a bit in Cleveland after a few years of playoff appearances and the trades that go along with them, though some deep draft classes from previous years and a few productive international signings have kept them out of the bottom tier for now.
1. Francisco Mejia, C (ranked No. 7)
2. Triston McKenzie, RHP (ranked No. 19)
3. Nolan Jones, 3B (ranked No. 80)
4. Bobby Bradley, 1B (ranked No. 91)
5. Willi Castro, SS
6. Yu-Cheng Chang, SS
7. Aaron Civale, RHP
8. Eric Haase, C
9. Will Benson, OF
10. Shane Bieber, RHP
Non-top-100 prospects
Willi Castro is a little overly aggressive at the plate but shows everything else you would want in an everyday shortstop, with good bat-to-ball skills, plus speed, a plus arm and the potential for 10-15 homers. His father is a longtime coach who played briefly in the low minors, and Willi has the good instincts you'd expect from a coach's kid. Yu-Cheng Chang hit 24 homers last year in Double-A, which was kind of shocking given his swing, but the power cost him contact and OBP, as he hit .224/.312/.461 and punched out 26 percent of the time. He can play short, probably better than Castro does right now, but has a grooved swing on which he gets caught between on breaking stuff and can mistime on better velocity. I think the industry opinion of Chang is higher than my personal opinion. His ranking here blends the two.
Aaron Civale might have 70-grade control. He throws strikes like it's his job -- it is his job, in fact -- and he walked 14 men in 164 innings (a scant 2.1 percent). He'll show batters four pitches with average velocity on the fastball and no plus offering, but he's never going to walk anyone and keeps the ball on the ground enough to profile as a fourth or fifth starter. Eric Haase has been overlooked because he has played with Mejia, but he's a potential everyday catcher for some clubs, just perhaps not this one. He reworked his swing last offseason, went back to Akron for the second year in a row and hit .258/.349/.574, with 27 homers in just 97 games on the year. The power is legit, he has an above-average arm, and he's an adequate receiver. American League catchers as a group hit .242/.309/.407 last year, so there's a place for Haase somewhere.
Will Benson was their first-round pick in 2016 as a very high upside but raw high school outfielder. A superb athlete who needed a lot of swing help out of the draft, he showed the good and bad in his profile in short-season ball, hitting 10 homers in 56 games but striking out in 34 percent of his plate appearances. Benson passed up a scholarship to Duke to sign with Cleveland, so it's not surprising that he's a very bright kid and quick learner; he just has so much work to do to get from raw recruit to polished prospect, and the process is going to take time. He did finish strongly, hitting eight of those 10 homers in the last 24 games of the season, during which he posted a .400 OBP with a slightly lower K rate, good news in the context of the team's work with him on keeping his bat in the zone longer so he isn't hooking balls down the left-field line.
Shane Bieber has even better control than Civale, with just eight unintentional walks in 173⅓ innings across three levels last year (1.1 percent!). I don't want to throw cold water on anyone, but his stuff is fringy to average at best, limiting his ceiling. You can never say never, but I'm sorry to say he's probably a fifth starter or a soft No. 4.
Cleveland didn't have a first-rounder in 2017 after signing Edwin Encarnacion, so the Indians' first pick was Quentin Holmes (11), a raw, fast high school outfielder from Queens who scared off some scouts because of concerns about his ability to make consistent contact. He was young for the draft, turning 18 a month afterward, and his pro debut didn't allay any of those fears, as he struck out 61 times in 169 PA. He can run, he has bat speed, and the hope is that he'll come into power as his 6-foot-3 frame fills out. I think he's a slower mover than most prep kids, probably needing to return to short-season ball in 2019. (Nolan Jones, also a northeast high school player, had a similarly rough debut in the Arizona Rookie League and bounced back very well in year two.)
Greg Allen (12) has the speed and glove to play center field every day, but the bat is light, even for center, with 30 or 35 power, probably making him a fourth outfielder on a good club. Conner Capel (13), their fifth-round pick in 2016, had a solid full-season debut last year for Lake County, finishing third in the Midwest League in homers with 22 while also hitting a combined 29 doubles and triples and stealing 15 bases. The power was a pleasant surprise, given the knocks on his strength coming out of high school, but he didn't do that well on contact overall and needs to get on base more to be a regular in an outfield corner.
Shawn Morimando got a cup of coffee in 2016 but spent last year in the Triple-A rotation, where his performance underscored that he's probably a reliever in the majors rather than a starter, between his fly ball tendencies, below-average command and lack of a true out pitch. I would like to see what his stuff looks like in short bursts, especially if he simplifies his pitch mix to fastball/slider. Julian Merryweather was dominant in Double-A but became very homer-prone in Triple-A; he's throwing up to 95 mph, but it's straight and easy for hitters to pick up, while he doesn't have an average breaking ball. Juan Hillman was a favorite of mine in the 2015 draft, but he has had trouble maintaining his stuff for a whole season, showing flashes of promise but still not where he should be physically at age 21.
Cleveland also signed outfielder George Valera for $1.6 million as an international free agent. The 5-foot-10, 210-pound, left-handed hitter looks like he's going to hit for power relatively early in his career, with a quick, pretty, left-handed swing that gives him a chance to hit for average as well. He and shortstop Aaron Bracho, who signed for $1.5 million, led Cleveland's international class for signing bonuses. Bracho projects as a good defensive second baseman who hits for average.
2018 impact: Mejia has worked at third base and could hit his way into a major league job or fill in at catcher if Yan Gomes gets hurt again. Morimando and Merryweather are closer, but Bieber or Civale would be more likely to stick if Cleveland needs to call up a starter.
Sleeper: I'm very high on Castro, who looks good on paper and better in person, showing a real feel for the game on both sides of the ball. I could easily see him leaping into the middle of the top 100 next year.
The fallen: Brady Aiken's road has never gotten any easier. Cleveland took him in the first round in 2015, a year after the Astros declined to sign him as the No. 1 overall pick because of irregularities in his elbow. Aiken had Tommy John surgery, but his stuff hasn't come back. He's much bigger now, less flexible, with velocity sitting in the upper 80s with none of the premium stuff that made him such an exciting, promising prospect in high school. He walked 101 men and struck out 89 for low-A Lake County last year.
Detroit Tigers
The Tigers' system has consistently ranked among the worst in the game because they typically drafted low and traded most of their prospects for major league help, but the change in direction signaled by last summer's trades of J.D. Martinez, Justin Upton and Justin Verlander means they're on the upswing, with the system bolstered by the influx of prospects and more coming when they pick first in this June's strong draft.
1. Franklin Perez, RHP (ranked No. 67)
2. Daz Cameron, OF (ranked No. 86)
3. Derek Hill, OF (Just missed)
4. Beau Burrows, RHP
5. Alex Faedo, RHP
6. Matt Manning, RHP
7. Isaac Paredes, INF
8. Christin Stewart, OF
9. Kyle Funkhouser, RHP
10. Sandy Baez, RHP
Non-top-100 prospects
Beau Burrows was within shouting distance of the top 100 after a great year that saw him finish in Double-A at age 20. His fastball is plus at 93-96 mph and has good sinking life, though he has never been a ground ball pitcher in pro ball. He can really spin a curve and has been working on a changeup, the latter being the biggest issue he still has to work on. I've seen him throw a hard slider/cutter as well that looked like a useful weapon as long as he keeps it distinct from the curveball. Right-handed batters swing right over his fastball, but lefties see it just enough to give him trouble, and while he's a starter even if the changeup never improves, that pitch is probably the difference between him being a well-above-average starter and a fringy one.
Alex Faedo was their first-round pick in 2017, the 18th overall selection, a big, 6-foot-5 starter out of the University of Florida who has a plus slider and throws it a ton. He didn't pitch after signing, since Florida won the College World Series and he had thrown 123⅔ innings, many high stress. He was throwing 90-94 mph last spring but was also coming off preseason knee surgery that might have hampered his delivery and his velocity, so I wouldn't be shocked if he showed up in March throwing harder. There's reliever risk here in the delivery, the slider emphasis and the knee issues, but he has No. 2 starter upside as well. Matt Manning, the Tigers' first-round pick in 2016, had a rough first full season in pro ball as he became very mechanical, almost robotic, in trying to repeat his delivery. He struggled to throw strikes in spring training, staying back in Lakeland in April and May to try to relax his motion, then spent much of the summer pitching at 90-94 mph rather than the 93-98 he showed in high school. His curveball still grades at 40, and scouts disagreed on whether you could project it to end up above-average. He's an excellent athlete who starred in basketball in high school, and at 6-foot-6, he should be able to pitch effectively even with average velocity because of the plane he can get on the fastball. He turned 20 at the end of January, so there's plenty of time for him to get back on track, but it wasn't the year anyone wanted from him.
Isaac Paredes came over in the Justin Wilson trade along with Jeimer Candelario (who's no longer eligible for the list). He's a shortstop who's going to move to second or third base, probably third given his arm strength and lack of quickness. He can rake -- his .252 average in low-A is misleading, as he made a ton of contact and played the entire season at age 18 in full-season ball -- and I think he's going to end up a .300 hitter on a regular basis, probably with a slew of doubles and enough walks to get his OBPs into the .360-.380 range. Christin Stewart failed to carry forward his progress from 2016, striking out more, walking a lot less and producing a little less power in Double-A. As a 40- or maybe 45-grade defender in left, he has to produce more than this to be a regular. Kyle Funkhouser's first year in pro ball had him show enough to project him as a No. 4 starter with some upside. He throws 94-95 mph with control rather than command, complemented with a slider and changeup, but he was shut down after 12 starts with elbow inflammation that never required surgery.
Sandy Baez works in the upper 90s as well as with a slider that comes and goes start to start and a foshball that he uses as a change of pace. He has control but not really command, and there's mixed opinion in the industry on whether he can start or will become a power reliever.
Lefty Gregory Soto (11) will pitch at 95-97 mph and shows an above-average curve and changeup, but like a lot of power arms in this system over the years, it's stuff over strikes; he walked 65 men in 124 innings (12.5 percent) at both full-season A-ball levels. He has the stuff to miss bats and enough of a mix to stay a starter, potentially a very good one if the control comes far enough. Sergio Alcantara (12) was the best player Detroit got back in the J.D. Martinez trade. He's a switch-hitting shortstop with plus hands and a plus arm, fringy running speed and no power. He does put the ball in play often, so if he adds enough strength to keep his batting average up and hit a few doubles, he might be a regular.
Michael Gerber (13) does a lot of things reasonably well, nothing truly better than average, but because he can play all three outfield spots, he will be a good fourth outfielder -- perhaps as soon as this year. There's a small chance he ends up a regular in center, where his defense is solid and his bat might play, though I think ultimately most teams will choose to have a rangier player there and would prefer Gerber as someone who moves across all three spots.
Kody Eaves (14) changed his approach for 2017, using the whole field more and reducing the uppercut in his swing, resulting in career highs across the board, including more homers as a result of more consistent hard contact. He can turn on a fastball, keeping his bat in the zone long enough to really barrel up above-average stuff. He doesn't have a true position, with an above-average arm but below-average speed, capable at third and maybe fringy at second. Between that and his lack of success against lefties, he's probably more a good bench piece than a regular, someone who can move around the corners, fill in at second and start against right-handers.
Catcher Jake Rogers (15) has a 60 arm, and some scouts love his receiving, though he struggled to catch a wild power arm when I saw him playing with High-A Buies Creek. His swing is very uphill and he cuts through velocity up while not adjusting well to off-speed stuff down and/or away. That said, he hit 18 homers last year, and if he can catch and hit for some power, he'll see his way to the majors even with a ton of strikeouts and a low OBP.
Dawel Lugo (16), acquired in the Martinez trade, is now at third base, where he has the arm strength but not the footwork. His approach at the plate is still not good enough to hit major-league pitching, but he has above-average power and the contact he makes tends to be hard. Bryan Garcia (17) is a two-pitch guy who will show a plus fastball and plus slider. Their 2016 sixth-round pick, the right-hander pitched at all four full-season stops last year, pitching very well at the first three. Gerson Moreno (18) throws 95-96 mph complemented with a hard slider that is sometimes plus, sometimes more average. He's a pure reliever who's probably a right-handed specialist without another pitch for lefties. Jairo Labourt (19) was much better in 2017 now that he's a full-time reliever; he throws hard, he doesn't throw a ton of strikes, but his slider should be death to left-handed hitters. The Tigers took Victor Reyes (20) in the Rule 5 draft; I think he's a fourth outfielder, lacking the speed for center or the power for a corner.
2018 impact: Reyes has to be on the big league roster and might end up playing quite a bit if he hits a little. Labourt could spend most of the year in the bullpen if he throws enough strikes.
Sleeper: Paredes has already shown enough hit tool at age 18 to make me confident that he is going to end up a regular. A bigger year from him in 2018 would increase his probability enough to make him a top-100 guy.
The fallen: Lefty Kevin Ziomek, the Tigers' second-round pick from 2013, had surgery to repair thoracic outlet syndrome in June 2016, but his stuff didn't come back afterward, and he retired last April.
Kansas City Royals
The Royals had the game's best farm system five years ago, and it led to two pennants and a World Series championship, but all good things must come to an end, and trades, low picks and some bad luck with high picks (such as Ashe Russell developing the yips) led them to this point, with no top-100 prospects and a bottom-five farm system.
1. Khalil Lee, OF (Just missed)
2. Nick Pratto, 1B
3. Seuly Matias, OF
4. Hunter Dozier, 3B/1B
5. Scott Blewett, RHP
6. Erik Skoglund, LHP
7. Foster Griffin, LHP
8. Nicky Lopez, SS
9. Ryan O'Hearn, 1B
10. M.J. Melendez, C
Non-top-100 prospects
Nick Pratto was the Royals' first-round pick in 2017, and he's a pure bat who projects to a 60-grade hit tool with average power at first base, where he's an adequate defender but no more than a 50. There's some small chance he has more bat than that and ends up a regular .300 hitter, but he didn't blow scouts away over the summer in the Arizona Rookie League. Seuly Matias is all tools right now -- 70 power, 70 or 80 arm, 60 run -- and though he had just a fair season in the Appy League at 18, he's not lost at the plate or crude in the way of many international prospects signed just for their physical gifts. He's in center now, but his body is going to get big enough to push him to right.
Hunter Dozier had a 2017 to forget, with an oblique strain, a broken wrist and a broken nose. He could be the Royals' regular at third or first this year, depending on free agents and his health, but I think a 2-WAR season from him right now is within reach. Scott Blewett throws 90-93 mph as well as an above-average changeup and sharp curveball with some depth, but he doesn't miss as many bats as he should with that stuff. His high three-quarters arm slot helps him get depth on the breaking ball, and he will drive his fastball down, albeit inconsistently. It seems like a fourth starter's starter kit, maybe even more, but the results haven't quite matched up yet. Erik Skoglund reached the majors last year and had a solid year at Double-A, mostly pitching average but touching 94-95 mph, with an above-average breaking ball and fringe-average changeup. The last pitch needs to be a touch better for him to profile as a fourth or fifth starter.
Foster Griffin can really, really pitch, and he competes his tail off, but it's a lot of 87-89 mph velocity, complemented with a good changeup and average breaking ball. I think he's a big leaguer, but he might not be an average starter. Nicky Lopez has a chance to be a regular, with speed, good hand-eye coordination at the plate and all of the tools to stay at shortstop. He walked as often as he struck out last year, though I think his off-speed pitch recognition will need to improve as he's facing better pitching. He has fan favorite written all over him for his high-energy, grinder style of play.
Ryan O'Hearn makes very hard contact when he squares it up but hasn't quite done enough of that or drawn enough walks to project as a regular yet. M.J. Melendez, their second-round pick in 2017, has a 70 arm and above-average power but gets too active behind the plate right now to be a good receiver. He has the hands to do it, so it's a matter of harnessing that energy so he's using it as needed (e.g., to block balls) but not on every pitch. He has everyday catcher upside even if he tops out at a 45 hit tool.
Miguel Almonte (11) threw just 50 innings last year before a right rotator cuff strain ended his regular season; he threw four innings in winter ball but was ineffective. When healthy, he has been clocked throwing up to 97 mph to go with a plus changeup and short-breaking curveball, often struggling with command and fighting himself on the mound.
While pitching in the A's system before coming over in the Brandon Moss deal, Heath Fillmyer (12) saw his strikeout rate dip last year with the promotion to Double-A. He still shows a solid three-pitch mix and repeatable delivery that have him on track to be a fifth starter. Josh Staumont (13) continues to tease with an upper-90s fastball, a hammer breaking ball, a good changeup, a good delivery .... and he walked 97 guys in 124 innings, about one of every six batters he faced. He's a prospect because he looks like a No. 11 starter, but he has never pitched well enough to call him a middle reliever.
Emmanuel Rivera (14) might be a late bloomer, as the 19th-rounder from 2015 carried a great winter league performance in Puerto Rico into a very good 2017 season in low-A at age 21. He has 60 raw power and makes plenty of contact, while he projects to stay at third and features a plus arm there. He and fellow Puerto Rican/2015 draftee Gabriel Cancel, a second baseman, should both be in high-A to start 2017, with Cancel needing more consistency in the field and more patience at the plate.
Shortstop Jeison Guzman (15) had a bad summer as an 18-year-old in the Appy League, but he has power and projects as a plus defender at short. He can load his hands a little deep, but he accelerates them quickly, and the Royals have worked with him on some adjustments to help him make more hard contact. Meibrys Viloria (16) looks like a catcher, with a solid frame and some strength for average power, and he nailed 40 percent of opposing basestealers last year. He rarely strikes out or walks, and he has a soft front side at the plate that might be why he didn't hit well on balls in play last year. Chase Vallot (17) has to massively change his approach at the plate, as he runs deep counts and strikes out excessively -- 36 percent of his PA last year, with a lot of bad chases with two strikes. He has arm strength but hasn't had success against baserunners so far, and his receiving is just fair. Viloria has the better skill set right now between the two backstops.
2018 impact: Dozier could get a job at first, third or on the bench out of spring training. O'Hearn might compete for a job at first later this summer if Dozier doesn't seize it. Skoglund and Almonte should appear in the majors at some point, Almonte in the pen and Skoglund there or in the rotation.
Sleeper: Matias is the easy choice here, though he could be two years away from showing enough at the plate to merit top 100 status.
The fallen: Kyle Zimmer was one of the best pitching prospects I've ever seen; I saw the good version three times, clocked throwing up to 97 mph complemented with a plus curveball and changeup, athletic, repeating his delivery, everything you'd want, enough to put him in my top 10 overall one year. He was never healthy after that. He had surgery in June 2016 to repair thoracic outlet syndrome, missed two months in 2017 with shoulder soreness and did not pitch very well after his return, even with extra rest between relief outings and was shut down for good in August with more soreness. For all sad words of tongue or pen, the saddest are these, "It might have been."
Minnesota Twins
This system is deep, so don't let the presence of just three Twins on the top-100 fool you. They have two dozen or more players who project to some kind of major league role beyond replacement level or roster filler, including one of the most interesting, upside-filled short-season teams in last year's Elizabethton club.
1. Royce Lewis, SS (ranked No. 25)
2. Nick Gordon, SS (ranked No. 37)
3. Fernando Romero, RHP (ranked No. 47)
4. Akil Baddoo, OF
5. Brent Rooker, OF
6. Stephen Gonsalves, LHP
7. Alex Kirilloff, OF
8. Wander Javier, SS
9. Travis Blankenhorn, 3B/2B
10. Brusdar Graterol, RHP
Non-top-100 prospects
In 2017, Akil Baddoo was the breakout guy in a system that had quite a few prospects take steps forward. He's a great athlete with fast hands and plus running speed, showing huge progress in his plate discipline last year, as he walked more than he struck out as an 18-year-old in the advanced rookie Appalachian League. He has the speed to be an above-average or plus defender in center, though his arm is below average, and he'd be relegated to left if he can't stay in the middle.
Brent Rooker had a dominant spring in the SEC as a fourth-year junior, having changed his swing substantially from 2016, loosening up to improve his hip rotation, shortening his time to get the bat to the zone and getting a consistent launch angle to optimize his power. He was 22 years old at the draft, so he was quite old for the Appy League and even a little old for high-A, but he hit .281/.364/.566 between the two levels with 18 homers in 62 games, coming right out of swinging a metal bat all spring. He's going to swing-and-miss a little more than you'd like, but he gets praise for his intelligence and understanding of both his own mechanics and how pitchers might try to pitch him. He's probably a first baseman in the end but has played in the outfield corners.
Stephen Gonsalves had a great year in Double-A with the same formula he has always had: average fastball with some deception, plus changeup that might be a 70 and no average breaking ball, with a slow curveball he tends to baby and a slider without much bite or tilt. He finished the year with five appearances in Triple-A, three very good and two disastrous, so he's close but perhaps not quite ready for the big league rotation yet. His command and control give him the floor of a back-end starter, but he lacks that third pitch to be more.
Alex Kirilloff was Minnesota's first-round pick in 2016 but missed all of last year after Tommy John surgery. The hope, if he returns healthy, is that he's a plus-hit, above-average power guy who can play every day in right field.
Wander Javier signed in 2015 for $4 million and played in just nine games in 2016 due to a hamstring injury, all in the Dominican Summer League, so 2017 was more of a pro debut for him as he came to the U.S. and played 41 games in the Appy League, hitting .299/.383/.471. He has great bat speed and projects to hit for average and power. His position is an open question, as he's very erratic at shortstop right now and is going to fill out enough that he might have to move off the position anyway.
Travis Blankenhorn makes a lot of hard contact and looks like he should come into plus power between his size and his swing. He's still too aggressive at the plate, giving away some at-bats and not getting on base enough, which might tie into his not getting to all of his power in games. He has played both third and second, better at third, but at that position, he'll need to show more offensive production.
Brusdar Graterol is a 6-foot-1 right-hander from Venezuela who missed 2016 after Tommy John surgery but returned at full strength last year, pitching with a fastball clocked up to 100 mph and with improvements on both his breaking ball and changeup, enough that you can envision a three-pitch starter's mix. His range of potential outcomes is enormous, between health and development of his off-speed stuff. He could be a No. 1 starter, a high-leverage reliever or a player who has trouble staying healthy.
Catcher Mitch Garver (11) has done nothing but hit the past two years in Double-A and Triple-A, and he's a solid-average defender behind the plate including an average arm. He's 27 years old now, so you might argue he's no longer a prospect, but I believe in the scouting axiom that catchers can develop later, and he looks like a good backup right now who might hit enough to be a regular.
Tyler Jay (12), their first-round pick in 2015, missed two months with a sore shoulder but did return in the Arizona Fall League and flashed above-average velocity in relief, with his breaking ball improved if not quite consistent. If he's healthy again in 2017, he's probably close to major-league-ready as a good, full-inning reliever, but I think the ship on him as a starting pitcher has sailed. Fellow lefty Lewis Thorpe (13) had a successful return after two years lost to injury, including Tommy John surgery. His stuff was back, with an above-average fastball and three-pitch mix that should give him three 55s or better, with his command and control good enough for a first year back on the mound. If he stays healthy, he has fourth starter potential, maybe a fair No. 3 if any of his pitches gets to truly plus. Blayne Enlow (14) was the Twins' first pick on day two of the 2017 draft and signed for $2 million, well over slot. He's a classic projection high school right-hander, with a good body and delivery, the ability to spin the breaking ball and the athleticism to repeat his arm action for eventual command.
Jose Miranda (15) played second base mostly last year, but third base is his long-term position. He tied for the Appy League lead in homers with 11 and rarely strikes out. Taken from Puerto Rico in the second round in 2016, Miranda shows an advanced feel for the bat, using the whole field very well for a 19-year-old and showing some power the other way.
Third baseman Andrew Bechtold (16) might be the steal of the Twins' 2017 draft class as their fifth-rounder. He transferred from Maryland to Chipola College last spring, then hit .299/.406/.424 in the Appy League, with great plate discipline and hard contact. He has a 70 arm and is an average runner who could probably play a few other spots, such as second or right field, probably hitting for more average than power with his current swing.
First baseman Lewin Diaz (17) has developed into a true all-fields hitter, with power to his pull side but a real ability to shorten up his swing and go the other way, going inside-out on balls or staying back on soft away stuff. His future is first base-only, and he doesn't walk much yet, giving away some at-bats without getting to the OBP he'll need to profile as an above-average regular.
Right-hander Zack Littell (18), acquired from the Yankees for Jaime Garcia, shows a solid mix of average, 55-grade pitches with enough of a changeup to get lefties out and above-average control, though he started to tire later in the season and walked 18 guys in August, twice what he walked in any other month. He's probably a below-average big-league starter but definitely in a rotation, with an average starter ceiling if he develops a clear plus pitch. Felix Jorge (19) is a fastball/changeup right-hander with a slight build and no clear out pitch; he might be a fifth starter, but his Triple-A performance and present stuff point more to a swingman or relief role.
Aaron Whitefield (20) is a great story: an Australian softball player (his father is from New Zealand) who has shown a surprising aptitude for baseball since signing, with above-average speed on the bases, good hand strength at the plate and instincts you wouldn't expect given his background. He's a little behind for his age, especially in pitch recognition, so while he has the ceiling of an average regular in center field, he might get there later than a prospect who played baseball as a kid.
Lamonte Wade (21) posted a .397 OBP last year in Double-A with more walks than strikeouts, though he profiles as a fourth outfielder because he lacks the glove to play center everyday (he could do it on occasion) and has maybe 40 power, insufficient for a corner. His Arizona Fall League stint ended with a concussion on a bad outfield collision, but he's expected to be ready for spring training.
Australian lefty Lachlan Wells (22) throws strikes with three average pitches but missed two months last summer due to injury. His twin brother, Alex, is in the Orioles' system. Catcher Ben Rortvedt (23), their second-round pick in 2016, threw out 36 percent of baserunners as a 19-year-old in Low-A while hitting just .224/.284/.315; he can get the bat to the ball but hasn't shown the strength to do much with it. Shortstop Jermaine Palacios (24) repeated low-A and went from hitting one home run in 71 games to hitting 11 in 62 games, earning a midyear promotion to the Florida State League. He's a natural shortstop, not plus there other than his arm, and between his range and his bat seems likely to move to second or become a utility infielder. Landon Leach (25) was their second-round pick in 2017 (third overall after Lewis and Rooker) and is a 6-foot-4 Canadian right-hander who can touch 93 mph as well as throw a decent slider, but he has no fastball life, and there are some timing questions in his delivery.
2018 impact: There's no room at the Minn at the moment, other than perhaps Garver getting the backup catcher's job. Gonsalves and/or Romero could join the rotation at the first injury Jay seems like a candidate to race up to the majors if he's healthy and they need a lefty. Gordon should fight his way into some playing time by August.
Sleeper: Graterol, obviously. He has top-25 kind of stuff, just without much history. There are a lot of guys here who look poised for a big step forward, though, including Baddoo, Thorpe, Miranda, Bechtold and Enlow.
The fallen: Kohl Stewart was the fourth pick in the 2013 draft, a two-sport star in high school who touched 97 mph before the draft. He threw well early in pro ball but didn't miss bats, eventually stalling in Double-A last year with barely more strikeouts than walks. The Twins chose not to protect him from the Rule 5 draft, and he went unselected. Although rumors he was going to quit baseball to return to the gridiron weren't true, they're indicative of his uncertain future on the diamond.