We already ran down the top 100 prospects in baseball, so now it's time go deeper by division. Today it's the NL Central, starting with the Chicago Cubs.
To jump to the other teams, click here -- Reds | Brewers | Pirates | Cardinals
Division overviews: NL East | NL West | AL East | AL Central | AL West
Editor's note: Age is the player's age as of July 1, 2018. Players with experience in foreign major leagues such as Japan's NPB or Korea's KBO -- think Shohei Ohtani -- are ineligible for these rankings.
Chicago Cubs
Winning is a tough business, as the Cubs have strip-mined their system for three straight NLCS appearances and a world championship, leaving a system that's shallower than it has been since the new regime took over and also lacks any prospects in the global top 50.
1. Aramis Ademan, SS/2B (ranked No. 78)
2. Adbert Alzolay, RHP (ranked No. 84)
3. Jose Albertos, RHP (Just missed)
4. Brendon Little, LHP
5. Thomas Hatch, RHP
6. Oscar de la Cruz, RHP
7. Alex Lange, RHP
8.Victor Caratini, C/1B
9. Jen-Ho Tseng, RHP
10. Miguel Amaya, C/1B
Non-top 100 prospects
Brendon Little and Alex Lange were the Cubs' two first-round picks last year, boasting two of the best breaking balls in the draft class but also bringing questions about whether they will be starters long-term. Little, the lefty, is up to 96 with some feel for a changeup, but he is only 6 feet tall without plane or life to the fastball, and his stride is probably on the short side for a starter. Lange had three years of success for LSU and his curveball misses bats in the zone, but the delivery is going to be very tough for him to repeat as a starter. He's the more likely of the two to end up a reliever.
Thomas Hatch was the Cubs' first pick in the 2016 draft, coming in the third round, and held his stuff all year after injury problems in college. He'll pitch at 92-95, using a sinker and now a four-seamer, and while his slider regressed, he did show an above-average changeup that will flash plus. He can get ground balls and miss enough bats to profile as a fourth starter. Oscar de la Cruz would be a top-100 prospect if he could stay healthy for a full year, but he's thrown just 96 innings the past two years around elbow and pectoral injuries. When healthy, the nearly 6-foot-6 right-hander is 92-94 with heavy life, average command and off-speed stuff that varies from average to plus. He was pulled from the Arizona Fall League before it began, but is expected to be healthy(ish) for spring training.
Victor Caratini is a bench player but a valuable one because he can hit with some pop, control the zone, and also can back up at catcher, first base and possibly third (which he played more as an amateur) or a corner-outfield spot. Few reserves can match his versatility and ability to get on base, so while he's probably not a good enough defensive catcher to start there, he's an asset in this era of three-to-four-man benches. Jen-Ho Tseng added a cutter last year to help him against left-handed batters, and that could help keep him a back-of-the-rotation starter rather than pushing him to the bullpen.
Miguel Amaya didn't hit at all this summer as an 18-year-old in the advanced short-season Northwest League, posting a .266 OBP but tying for 10th in the league in doubles. He does project to really hit with at least good extra-base power though. He's a catcher now with a plus arm and chance to be at least solid-average in other aspects behind the plate, although if he hits like scouts expect, he could move off the position to get him into the lineup every day. Right-hander Dillon Maples (11) was a forgotten man in this system after years of injuries and ineffectiveness, but last year everything came together. He started working in the upper 90s with a wipeout slider, punched out 36 percent of the batters he faced in the minors, and even got a brief call-up to the big leagues. He's a one-inning reliever but there's the potential here for him to be among the best in that specific role if he can gain even a half-grade of control. Second baseman David Bote (12) opened a lot of eyes in the Arizona Fall League by hitting .333/.395/.536 in 19 games. He makes a lot of hard line-drive contact, projecting more to doubles than homers, and can play adequate defense at the keystone, enough that he might be a second-division regular.
The Cubs took Nelson Velazquez (13) out of Puerto Rico in the sixth round last year, betting on his huge raw power and bat speed despite a crude approach right now. He's a 60 runner but will probably lose a step as he fills out and move to an outfield corner full-time. It's an all-or-nothing sort of bet -- if he gets to enough of a hit tool to get to the power, he's a regular.
Right-hander Erling Moreno (14), who signed for $650K in the same international class as Gleyber Torres and Eloy Jimenez, has continued to be plagued by arm trouble, throwing only 64 innings in 14 starts around shoulder soreness after missing most of 2014-15 due to Tommy John surgery. When healthy, he's 94-97 with huge sink, generating a 60 percent ground-ball rate over the past two seasons. He's one to watch if he can just get on the mound for a full year. Michael Rucker (15) was the Cubs' 11th-round pick in 2016 out of Brigham Young and started 2017 in the low-A South Bend bullpen, but earned a quick promotion to high-A and ended up in Myrtle Beach's rotation, where he posted a 2.49 ERA in 15 starts, with 17 unintentional walks and 76 K's in 83 innings. He's up to 93 with an average breaking ball, getting results with some of the best fastball command in the system. His ceiling is low, but if he passes the Double-A test he's very likely to end up logging some starts in the majors.
The Cubs' sixth-rounder last year, Jeremiah Estrada (16) is an undersized high school right-hander with a quick arm and an advanced feel for pitching, lacking much projection for more velocity. Keegan Thompson (17), a top prospect out of high school, went to Auburn, where he blew out his elbow before coming back last spring as a redshirt junior with average stuff and improved command, occasionally touching the mid-90s or flashing a plus breaking ball. He looks like a back-end starter as well. Lefty Justin Steele (18) is yet another possible back-end starter, with some reliever potential because he shows an above-average breaking ball and has been effective against left-handed hitters. Mark Zagunis (19) is a below-average defender in an outfield corner, but his history of high OBPs should get him time as a major league reserve. The Cubs tried to hit the reset button with outfielder D.J. Wilson (20) last summer, and he was better after an injury and stint in extended spring where coaches tried to rework his swing. He hit .245/.325/.462 after returning to low-A, showing some progress, but is not where he needs to be entering his age-21 season. Outfielder Eddy Julio Martinez (21) has been a huge disappointment, getting over-rotational at the plate to try to hit for power he probably doesn't quite have, resulting in way too many groundouts to the left side when he should be using the whole field. His contact rate is fine, but it's the wrong kind of contact.
2018 impact: Victor Caratini should start the year as the Cubs' backup catcher/first baseman, and Dillon Maples should log some innings in the major league bullpen if his control allows it.
Sleeper: Miguel Amaya 's 2017 line doesn't indicate what kind of hitter he is, or at least is expected to be, and a strong 2018 would launch him up the global list given the possibility that he's a catcher too.
The fallen: Trevor Clifton was the Cubs' organizational pitcher of the year in 2016, but his command of average to fringe-average stuff wasn't enough for him in Double-A as the slight right-hander posted a 5.20 ERA as a result of more hard contact.
Cincinnati Reds
The Reds' rebuild hasn't gotten press, but they've stockpiled quite a bit of young talent from the major league team on down, capitalizing on the No. 2 pick in the past two drafts while adding a ton of up-the-middle players with later picks and on the international market.
1. Nick Senzel, 3B (ranked No. 9)
2. Hunter Greene, RHP (ranked No 22)
3 Taylor Trammell, OF (ranked No. 41)
4. Tyler Mahle, RHP (ranked No. 69
5. Jose Israel Garcia, SS (Just missed)
6. Jose Siri, OF
7. Tyler Stephenson, C
8. Jeter Downs, SS
9. Stuart Fairchild, OF
10. Alex Blandino, 2B/3B
Non-top 100 prospects
Jose Siri has some plus tools, but was old for the low-A Midwest League and took advantage of some weaker pitching. He has a long, hard swing that doesn't have great speed to it, and makes some poor swing decisions at the plate. He's an above-average defender and has a wide range of possible outcomes. Tyler Stephenson, the Reds' first-round pick in 2015, played well in the first half in Dayton as a 20-year-old but tore a thumb ligament in July and didn't return until instructional league. He has shown a better approach at the plate recently and still has BP power to all fields, with enough improvements in his receiving to project him to stay behind the plate.
Jeter Downs was the Reds' second pick in the 2017 draft, 32nd overall, and is an advanced high school hitter with some question whether he can stay at shortstop long-term. The Reds sent him to the advanced rookie Pioneer League, where he posted a .370 OBP and tied for 15th in walks despite playing 10-15 fewer games than most players in the league. He does project to come into a little more power, maybe 15-20 homers with a high average and OBP, with a slightly better chance that he moves to third than stays at short.
Stuart Fairchild, taken six picks later, is a strong kid with the potential for above-average power, showing some length in the early part of his swing, playing mostly center field for short-season Billings with a chance to stay there long-term. Alex Blandino has been overlooked in the system after a dismal 2016 season ruined by a nagging leg injury, but hit .265/.382/.453 between Double-A and Triple-A last year while playing second, short and third. I think he could start for some teams at second or third, lacking the defense to play short regularly, with just about any team able to use him as a utility infielder and 15-plus homer power with a strong OBP if he gets the playing time.
Antonio Santillan (11) is 97-99 with a hard breaking ball and split-like change, still walking too many guys but worlds ahead of where he was a year ago, cutting his walk rate from 13.2 percent to 10.5 percent while spending his first entire year with a full-season club. I still think he's a power reliever rather than a starter, but if he continues to improve his command and control he has above-average to plus starter upside. Jose Lopez (12) is an intriguing starter prospect, probably projecting to an average big leaguer if he holds up, 91-95 with a three-pitch mix, now healthy for two straight years after having Tommy John surgery while at Seton Hall. Shed Long (13) can hit for average with a little pop, but he's a below-average defender at second who may have to move to the outfield. Aristides Aquino (14) has tools, with a 70 arm and 70 power, but he swings at everything, punching out 29 percent of the time as a 23-year-old in Double-A.
Former first-rounder Phil Ervin (15) hasn't shown much power in pro ball but can run, play all three outfield spots and work the count, enough to make him a good fourth outfielder on most clubs, with regular potential if he cuts down on his swing and focuses on harder contact rather than trying to hit the ball out of the park. Jacob Heatherly (16) was the Reds' third-round pick last year, a 19-year-old high school product from Alabama, who's 91-94 with good spin on his breaking ball but below-average command.
Jimmy Herget (17) is 92-96 from a low slot with a short low-80s slider, limiting right-handed batters to a .220/.278/.293 line between Double-A and Triple-A. He's working on his changeup, which is hard to turn over from his arm slot, but it might be good enough to keep him from being strictly a specialist. The Reds moved right-hander Tanner Rainey (18) to the bullpen full-time last year and he struck out 104 men in 62 innings (41.4 percent of batters). He's got a big fastball/slider combination, lacking much of a third pitch for lefties. Alfredo Rodriguez (19) is a plus-plus defender at short with a 45 hit tool and 30 power; there is some hope in the fact that he puts the ball in play so often and maybe hits for enough average to be an everyday shortstop who bats seventh or eighth. First baseman Gavin LaValley (20) has huge pull power from the right side, but doesn't get on base enough or use the opposite field well enough to profile as more than an up-and-down guy.
2018 impact: Nick Senzel is nearly ready for a major league job, although third base is currently occupied in Cincinnati; the Reds will have to make room for him by midseason. Phil Ervin should be their fourth outfielder. Jesse Winker lost his rookie status last year, so he's not on the list, but he should be one of the Reds' corner outfielders to start 2018.
Sleeper: I'm sanguine about Tyler Stephenson's chance to go off this year in high-A if he can just get 120 or so games in; he's improved many facets of his game but hasn't had an extended, healthy stretch to show it to everyone.
The fallen: Chris Okey was the Reds' second-round pick in 2016, but the Clemson catcher broke his hamate bone in March and didn't tell anyone, playing through it to a .185/.265/.249 line in 93 high-A games.
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers' run at contention last year didn't dent their long-term rebuild, which was boosted by trades and some hits on later draft picks, but 2017 wasn't a great year for their first-rounders, and most of the hitters who played in high-A underperformed. The top of the system took a hit in Milwaukee's recent trade to acquire Christian Yelich, as Lewis Brinson, Monte Harrison and Isan Diaz all would have ranked in the top 10 of this list had they not been dealt to Miami.
1. Corbin Burnes, RHP (ranked No. 24)
2. Keston Hiura, 2B(ranked No. 35)
3. Lucas Erceg, 3B (ranked No. 66)
4. Brandon Woodruff, RHP (ranked No. 93)
5. Luis Ortiz, RHP
6. Corey Ray, OF
7. Trent Grisham, OF
8. Tristen Lutz, OF
9. Mauricio Dubon, SS/2B
10. Brett Phillips, OF
Non-top 100 prospects
Luis Ortiz is a former top-100 prospect and still has some of that promise, but he can't stay healthy and still needs to lose weight. He can show a plus fastball and changeup, but his control got quite a bit worse last year when he did manage to take the mound. Corey Ray was the fifth overall pick in 2016 but tore his meniscus in instructional league play that fall, got a late start on 2017, and just never hit. He eliminated any stride or method of weight transfer and was becoming too rotational, so he'd show some pull power, but swung and missed way too often given his eye and bat speed. Trent Grisham (formerly known as Trent Clark) had a bizarre season as a 20-year-old in high-A, drawing 98 walks and posting a .223/.360/.348 stat line with a 25 percent strikeout rate. He made hard contact when he did put the ball in play, just without much to show for it. He's playable in center, likely plus in left, an above-average runner underway with a good idea of the strike zone but lacking the raw power to get away with not hitting for average or a high contact rate.
Tristen Lutz was the team's second pick in the 2017 draft and is a right-handed hitter with huge power and high exit velocities in pro ball. He's playing center now but is ultimately destined for right field. Mauricio Dubon is going to be the first big leaguer born in Honduras, maybe as a very good utility infielder who can credibly play short, second or third, with plus speed and above-average contact rates -- although he still could stand to add a little strength for more doubles power. Brett Phillips could still be a starter for someone, with a high floor as a fourth outfielder who has a Winchester for an arm in right field, the speed to handle center on occasion, and enough power to make up for the high strikeout rates and possible platoon splits. Adrian Houser (11) came back from Tommy John surgery and pitched in the Arizona Fall League, showing a new, svelte look while still bringing the 92-95 heat and hammer low-80s curveball; we don't know his durability just yet, but he still looks like a potential league-average starter. Marcos Diplan (12) might also be a starter but will have to throw a lot more strikes than he did last year and tighten up his breaking ball, as he's a fastball/changeup guy with a reverse platoon split and needs something, even a cutter, to get right-handers out.
Catcher Mario Feliciano (13) played in the low-A Midwest League as an 18-year-old -- he didn't turn 19 until November -- and hit a respectable .251/.320/.331 with just a 16 percent strikeout rate, unsurprising given his short swing and middle-of-the-field approach. He can throw better than he can catch right now, and there may not be much power there without a real swing change, but I like his floor as a backup if he improves his glovework. Freddy Peralta (14) gets swings and misses with mostly average stuff. He won't sit 94 but can touch it with good deception in the delivery and some fastball movement. He doesn't project as more than a back-end starter but should keep getting opportunities, even with the lack of plus stuff, as long as he's striking out 33 percent of hitters, as he did in 2017.
Jon Perrin (15) is a command right-hander who worked as a swingman in Double-A and succeeded in both roles. He might be a back-end starter but throws so many strikes with average stuff that he seems like at least a solid middle reliever. Trey Supak (16) started to show some progress in 2017, two years after the Brewers acquired him in a minor trade with Pittsburgh, with an above-average curveball and solid-average fastball that is often too flat. He also needs to work on his conditioning, but has fifth-starter potential. Cody Ponce (17) is up to 94-95 but didn't show enough of a breaking ball last year to profile as a starter. Jacob Gatewood (18) finally started to hit last year, aided by new contacts and a shorter swing, although it's still not enough production for a player who's most likely going to end up at first base.
2018 impact: Brandon Woodruff should at least get a shot at the last spot in the Brewers' rotation out of spring training, and Brett Phillips is likely to make the club as an extra outfielder.
Sleeper: Scouts were impressed by what Tristen Lutz showed in a brief stint in the Arizona Rookie League at 18, and right-handed power is always in high demand around the sport.
The fallen: Gilbert Lara signed with the Brewers for $3.2 million in 2014, the highest bonus the team had ever given to an international amateur, but he's been a zero so far in pro ball, performing poorly without showing enough effort. Lara hit .193/.226/.269 as a 19-year-old in low-A last year with nine walks and 79 strikeouts in about half a season of playing time. He has yet to hit at any level, and isn't going to stay at shortstop if he's around long enough for his defense to matter.
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates' system had a down year overall, with several top prospects failing to progress or even losing ground last year. But the lower levels were bolstered by a very strong draft, and the team added two more top-10 prospects via January trades.
1. Mitch Keller, RHP (ranked No. 18)
2. Ke'Bryan Hayes, 3B (ranked No. 61)
3 Shane Baz, RHP (ranked No. 65)
4. Austin Meadows, OF ranked No. 70
5. Kevin Newman, SS (Just missed)
6. Colin Moran, 3B
7. Bryan Reynolds, OF
8. Cole Tucker, SS
9. Stephen Jennings, RHP
10. Conner Uselton, OF
Non-top 100 prospects
Colin Moran and Bryan Reynolds came over in the Gerrit Cole and Andrew McCutchen trades, respectively. Moran should be the Pirates' Opening Day third baseman, a soft 50 defender who should hit for average and 20-homer power without many walks. Reynolds can show power, speed and patience, but has yet to put everything together at once, going from too passive as an amateur to perhaps too aggressive last year in high-A, putting the ball in play more but walking less and failing to drive the ball like he does in BP. He's likely to end up in a corner, so he has to hit, with the physical tools to do so from both sides of the plate.
Cole Tucker's arm strength seems to be fully recovered from shoulder surgery, so the question now is around his bat, as his breaking ball recognition isn't good, and he needs to get more consistency from his swing mechanics. Stephen Jennings was the team's second selection in 2017, taken with the compensation pick it received for failing to sign its selection there the year before. He came back extremely quickly from an ACL tear he suffered playing football and was still 91-93 with feel for a breaking ball and changeup in the spring. He's very projectable, a strong competitor, and may have more stuff in there just from getting his knee healthy again. Uselton was the Pirates' fourth pick, taken at the end of the second round, an athletic prep outfielder from Oklahoma who runs well and projects to hit for average and some power, likely moving to a corner outfield spot before he reaches the majors. Infielder Kevin Kramer (11) got off to a huge start after shifting his hand position on the bat but played just 53 games after a pitch broke his hand in June; he's a second baseman now but has good feel to hit, always posting high contact rates but now hitting the ball harder, and he could be a solid regular at second.
The Pirates added 6-foot-6 shortstop Oneil Cruz (12) in the trade that sent Tony Watson to the Dodgers. He's not staying at shortstop, of course, and his plate discipline has a ways to go, but he makes very hard contact and projects to big power, which will help if he ends up moving to a corner-outfield spot. Right-hander Nick Kingham (13) is all the way back from Tommy John surgery, losing a half-grade of stuff along the way but still projecting as a back-end starter who might eventually get to solid-average because of his command and feel for pitching. Taylor Hearn (14) touches 100 from the left side with a funky arm action and shows an above-average changeup, needing to tighten his breaking ball to be a true three-pitch guy. His delivery points to the bullpen, but he's had no trouble holding his stuff as a starter. He may never get to average control or command, which could also push him to relief. He's 6-foot-5 and with that arm strength he'll be employed in baseball for a very long time. Right-hander Luis Escobar (15) struck out 30 percent of opposing hitters in low-A last year, working with a fastball, curve and change -- but nothing plus -- and his smaller frame (he is listed at 6-foot-1, 155 pounds) points to a likely reliever role. Signed for $400K, center fielder Lolo Sanchez (16) is a plus runner with some emerging power, an instinctual fielder with a solid-average arm and a broad enough mix of skills to project as an everyday player. The Pirates acquired Nick Burdi (17) in the Rule 5 draft (from the Twins by way of the Phillies), and he should be pitching again around midseason after rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. When healthy, which is almost never, he's been 98-100 with a plus slider up to 92.
First baseman Will Craig (18), their first-round pick in 2016, posted a .373 OBP in high-A at age 22 but hit for no power. The Florida State League isn't good for home runs, but Craig didn't project too much power to begin with and this debut performance is concerning. Lefty Braeden Ogle's (19) stats aren't much to leer at, but keep an eye on the Bucs' 2016 fourth-round pick, as he's very athletic and has shown plus velocity but needs to fill out and build some stamina before he's worthy of a closer look. Third baseman Sherten Apostel (20) has played in only the Dominican Summer League so far, but the Curaçao native earns praise for his command of the strike zone and power potential. He ranked second in his league with nine homers last year at age 18. Calvin Mitchell (21) was the team's third pick in 2017, 50th overall, a high school first baseman with a good swing that produces contact but an uncertain power outlook.
A few other names to watch: Travis Macgregor, who sounds like a character from "Monarch of the Glen," flashed plus velocity but couldn't repeat his delivery well in his second pro season, allowing a run an inning in the Appy League ... Catcher Deon Stafford, the Pirates' fifth-round pick in 2015, has some offensive potential but hurt his shoulder last spring and didn't throw well before the draft, causing him to slide into Day 2 ... Geoff Hartlieb, their 29th-round pick in 2016 out of Division II Lindenwood University, was up to 99 in instructional league after punching out 28 percent of batters with a 6 percent walk rate in high-A last year ... Dario Agrazal is a sinkerballer who missed the latter half of 2017 with a lat injury suffered off the field, posting a 55 percent ground ball rate in low-A with excellent control.
2018 impact: Colin Moran should be the Pirates' third baseman in 2018, and I hope Kingham gets a shot at the rotation this spring with one or possibly two spots open. Austin Meadows or Kevin Newman could see the majors in the second half, depending on their performances and, in Meadows' case, health.
The fallen: Aside from Meadows (who fell from top 10 to No. 70 overall) and Newman (who fell off the top 100 to the just-missed category), you could also point to first baseman Connor Joe, their second pick in the 2014 draft, 39th overall, who hit .240/.338/.380 for Double-A Altoona at age 24 and was traded to Atlanta for Sean Rodriguez in July and later moved on to the Dodgers.
Sleeper: There are a lot of guys I like in this system, but I'm especially excited to see what Stephen Jennings does when he's more than a year off the ACL tear and is focusing full-time on baseball.
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cards' system remains extremely deep, especially in starters and outfielders, to the point where prospects are reaching the majors and finding themselves seventh on the depth chart. This should enable St. Louis to pull off more trades like the deal for Marcell Ozuna.
1. Alex Reyes, RHP (ranked No. 27)
2. Jack Flaherty, RHP (ranked No. 43)
3. Carson Kelly, C (ranked No. 71)
4. Jordan Hicks, RHP
5. Harrison Bader, OF
6. Yairo Munoz, INF/OF
7. Andrew Knizner, C
8. Oscar Mercado, OF
9. Tyler O'Neill, OF
10. Dakota Hudson, RHP
Non-top 100 prospects
Jordan Hicks' stuff is top-of-the-rotation good -- 94-100 the last time I saw him with a plus slider, average or better change, and even a slow curveball -- while his command is probably around high-A level right now. He's a plus athlete with some delivery quirks like a high leg kick and slight cutoff in his landing, with a huge range of potential outcomes from high-end starter to up-and-down guy who never throws enough quality strikes. Harrison Bader is a major-league-average outfielder right now, capable in center -- better in a corner -- with above-average hit and power tools but less on-base skill. I think he'd be at least a two-win player right now if he got 500 at-bats for someone, but it probably won't be in St. Louis.
Yairo Munoz came over in the trade that sent Stephen Piscotty home to Oakland. He played in Double-A and Triple-A at age 22, hitting .300/.330/464 between the two levels and playing second, third, short and all three outfield spots, so you might say he's versatile. He never walks, but he has some strength in his wrists for hard contact and maybe 20-homer power.
Andrew Knizner has one too many n's in his last name, but he surprised a lot of people (me included) by hitting .324/.371/.462 after a midseason, two-level promotion to Double-A. The 2016 seventh-round pick has a solid eye and good bat-to-ball skills, probably not projecting to more than fringy power, but as a passable catcher with an average arm and limited experience at the position, he's intriguing as someone who could blossom late into an everyday backstop by his late 20s.
Oscar Mercado went from being a 4 shortstop to a 6 center fielder, and he's hitting better too now that he's not struggling on defense, going from zero homers in 2016 in high-A to 13 in Double-A last year. He does have at least average power, a 6 arm and the bat speed to turn on a fastball, but needs to work on his approach at the plate, which mostly involves swinging at the first pitch he thinks he can crush. Tyler O'Neill is still mostly dead-pull, although he's strong enough to drive the ball out to right, and a below-average defender in the outfield. I could see him posting a .290 OBP with 30 homers if he got a full season in the majors.
Dakota Hudson reached Triple-A in his first full pro season and threw strikes but missed far fewer bats than expected; he posted a huge ground ball rate, 57.6 percent in Double-A and 57.7 percent in Triple-A, and doesn't walk too many guys, but has to find a way to miss more bats. His cutter, a go-to pitch for him in college, wasn't as effective in pro ball, and he also used it less as part of a plan to get him to develop his changeup, as lefties still get to him too much for him to start. Alvaro Seijas (11) is maybe 5-foot-10 with a short-stride delivery, but the stuff is pretty good, 89-95 on what looked like four- and two-seamers, a changeup with plus life and a power curveball at 79-80 he could bury down and away or throw for strikes. He'll pitch at 19 all year.
Shortstop Edmundo Sosa (12) is at least a solid 6 defender with great hands; he missed two months over the summer after breaking a hamate bone in or just after his first game in Double-A. He has good hand-eye coordination but projects to no power, so his upside is a high-contact guy who takes a few walks and plays great defense. Randy Arozarena (13) has star-level tools but limited feel for the game right now, showing plus run and above-average raw power, but isn't an average defender in center and his pitch recognition needs some work.
Jose Adolis Garcia (14) signed last spring for $2.5 million after defecting from Cuba. He's not as good-looking as his brother Adonis, but he's a better player, with above-average speed and better feel to hit, although he doesn't walk much or project to power. He can play center, because he's a Cardinals prospect and they can all play center. Ryan Helsley (15) has a mid-90s fastball with some sink and an average curveball, a starter now but more likely a solid middle reliever.
Lefty Austin Gomber (16) is a three-pitch starter with good control, upping his strikeout rate but becoming more homer-prone last year as he moved up to Double-A; he has nothing plus but mixes and locates well enough to profile as a high-floor back-end starter. Junior Fernandez (17) seems to have stalled as a starter, as he's a two-pitch guy (plus fastball, plus change) with some effort coming down the hill, and at 6-foot-nothin' he doesn't get much fastball plane. Conner Greene (18) just joined the system, coming from Toronto for Randall Grichuk; Greene has been up to 99 as a starter, comes from a high slot that gets good plane on the pitch, but walked 83 men in 132 innings with 92 strikeouts in Double-A and has no pitch to get lefties out right now. He's a good candidate to send to the bullpen.
Ryan Sherriff (19) appeared briefly in the majors and is a lefty specialist, but extremely effective at it with plus life on his average fastball and an above-average slider. Left-handed batters were 2-for-26 against him in the majors with just two singles and seven strikeouts after he held them to a .198/.225/.302 line in Triple-A.
Dylan Carlson (20) played in the Midwest League at 18 last year, an aggressive assignment, and the right fielder struggled other than getting on base, with a .240/.342/.347 line and an 11.6 percent walk rate. Check back in a year on this one. Max Schrock (21) came over in the Piscotty trade with Munoz, with very limited tools but a history of high batting averages and a chance to be an average or fringe-average defender at second who has limited range but very sure hands.
Jake Woodford (22) is a sinker/slider guy who needs to sink the sinker more, 89-93 but with less movement than he had in high school. He's 20 and still athletic and projectable, with a below-average changeup and, of course, that sinking feeling. Right-hander Connor Jones (23) does sink the ball, with a nice 69 percent ground ball rate last year, but doesn't miss bats or throw enough strikes, walking nearly 10 percent of batters he faced. Center fielder Jonathan Machado (24) is a plus runner with bat-to-ball skills but needs to add a lot of strength to project to even an average major league hit tool.
Delvin Perez (25) just turned 19 in November, so he has several more years before we can think about giving up on him, but he has looked overmatched at the plate everywhere in pro ball, with a .203/.314/.271 line last summer between the GCL and the Appy League. He can still run and is a 60 or better defender at short, but he's so slight that scouts who saw him in 2017 questioned whether he'd ever have the strength to hit.
2018 impact: Harrison Bader and Carson Kelly are ready for major league jobs, but both are blocked right now; Tyler O'Neill might be ready too, but he's blocked by Bader. Jack Flaherty might be on the outside of the rotation looking in at the moment, but with Adam Wainwright coming off elbow surgery and a 5+ ERA, there could be a spot open sooner rather than later.
The fallen: Johan Oviedo hasn't repeated the velocity that got him a $2 million bonus as a Cuban amateur, touching 93 and sitting 89-91 when I saw him for State College at the end of the New York-Penn League season.
Sleeper: Alvaro Seijas is the most likely player in the system to take a big step forward as he gets to full-season ball and gets to stretch out over a full season.