We already ran down the top 100 prospects in baseball, so now it's time go deeper by division. Today it's the AL East, starting with the Baltimore Orioles.
To jump to the other teams, click here: Red Sox | Yankees | Rays | Blue Jays
Division overviews: NL East | NL Central | NL West | AL Central | AL West
Editor's note: Age is the player's age as of July 1, 2018. Players with experience in foreign major leagues such as Japan's NPB or Korea's KBO -- think Shohei Ohtani -- are ineligible for these rankings.
Baltimore Orioles
There's some clear improvement here, especially on the pitching side, though the Orioles have to show they can keep these arms healthy, and they are always handcuffed by ownership's refusal to participate in the international free-agent market.
1. Chance Sisco, C (ranked No. 53)
2. Austin Hays, OF (ranked No. 79)
3. Ryan Mountcastle, INF (Just missed)
4. Hunter Harvey, RHP (Just missed)
5. DL Hall, LHP
6. Brenan Hanifee, RHP
7. Cameron Bishop, RHP
8. Cedric Mullins, OF
9. Keegan Akin, RHP
10. Tanner Scott, LHP
Non-top-100 prospects
DL Hall was the Orioles' first-rounder and a top-10 talent in the draft but was wilder than expected in his brief pro ball stints and might be a bit further away than expected. He's still up to 94 with a hammer curveball and plus changeup, needing work on consistency in the delivery to improve his command and control. He's too good to be my sleeper for the organization -- see below for another, more obscure name for that -- but I would be surprised if he didn't at least get close to the top 100 next year after he gets some more pro innings under his belt in low-A or short-season.
Brenan Hanifee pitched for short-season Aberdeen at 19 and posted a 58 percent ground ball rate, thanks to a heavy sinker that's 92-94 and can touch 96. He's 6-foot-5 and still projectable, with two solid-average secondary pitches in the curveball and changeup, though right now he doesn't have a real swing-and-miss pitch. The Orioles signed Cameron Bishop out of the Cape Cod League after Bishop missed his entire junior season with an oblique injury. They took him in the 26th round and signed him after they walked away from their fourth-round pick, Jack Conlon, due to something amiss in the latter's post-draft physical. A 6-foot-4 lefty, Bishop will touch 95 and can show an above-average curveball and changeup, but his command is below average, and his secondary stuff is inconsistent. He has midrotation ceiling but probably has longer to go than the typical Division I college draft pick.
Cedric Mullins jumped from low-A to Double-A and continued to show above-average defense in center and surprising power for his size (listed at 5-foot-8, 175 pounds), but he missed about half the regular season with a recurring hamstring strain. When healthy, he's an above-average to plus runner, but he didn't show that much last year once the injury popped up. He could be a solid regular in center or a very good fourth outfielder. Keegan Akin showed up out of shape last year and had an up and down season in which he'd be 89-92 some outings and 92-95 in others, with an improved slider and feel for a changeup. The O's second-rounder from 2016 needs to work on his conditioning and get some start-to-start consistency, as his overall performance wasn't great for a high pick from a Division I school in high-A. Tanner Scott is a reliever all the way, up to 100 from the left side with a wipeout slider but with 40 command. The Orioles continue to insist on starting him, which is one of the bigger windmills I've seen anyone tilt at in some time, but this is serious late-game 12-strikeouts-per-9 kind of stuff.
Lefty Alex Wells (11) had an incredible year for low-A Delmarva, with just 10 walks in 140 innings, and was especially effective against left-handed batters, thanks to his big mid-70s curveball. He pitches with a 45 or even worse fastball many nights, sitting around 86, but between the curve, a plus change and his ridiculous control, he has a chance where most soft-tossers would not.
The Orioles' first-rounder from 2015, DJ Stewart (12), had a bounce-back season after a very disappointing 2016, hitting .278/.378/.481 in double-A with just a 16 percent strikeout rate. He's still a bad-bodied guy who doesn't project to have any defensive value, and the way he spins off the ball seems likely to give him a lot of trouble against lefties as he moves up. I could see a second-division regular here, with his mixture of hard contact against righties and patience. Chris Lee (13) was awful as a starter in Triple-A due in part to difficulty with his delivery, and he and right-hander David Hess (14) probably both need to move to the bullpen.
Lefty Zac Lowther (15), one of their two second-round picks in 2017, is just 88-90 but has a high spin rate and huge extension toward the plate, so hitters just don't see the ball out of his hand. He'll show a fringy curveball/changeup combination, but he can pitch with his fastball because of the spin and deception.
Canadian shortstop Adam Hall (16) was the team's other second-rounder in 2017, a great athlete who ran anywhere from average to plus, depending on when you saw him this spring, and showed some feel to hit, though he has a long way to go to become an adequate defender at short and could move to second or even center field. Right-hander Michael Baumann (17), a third-rounder last June, has been up to 97 as a starter, but his secondary stuff lags, and he projects as a fastball/slider reliever.
2018 impact: Chance Sisco is ready to take over as the Orioles' regular catcher, and Hays could end the season as one of their regular corner outfielders. Lee, Hess and Scott should all see some time in the major league bullpen.
The fallen: Cody Sedlock was worked very hard at the University of Illinois, including a 10 2/3-inning, 132-pitch start six weeks before the Orioles took him with their first-round pick, and sure enough, he missed time twice in 2017 with an elbow strain and a forearm strain. When he did pitch, he was awful, with a 5.90 ERA for high-A Frederick along with disappointing strikeout, walk and home run rates, as his stuff just wasn't the same as it was before the draft.
Sleeper: Dominican right-hander Leonardo Rodriguez signed just before his 19th birthday and has pitched only in the DSL so far, but he's 96-97 with an average slider and throws a ton of strikes thanks to a delivery he can repeat. And he's 6-foot-7. Look for his U.S. debut this year.
Boston Red Sox
They've been near the top for years, but the Red Sox's system is the shallowest it has been since I started working on these lists, thanks to both promotions and big trades. They've been productive for about a decade, helping stock the roster that won the AL East last year. Their 2017 draft class has the potential to help kick-start the next wave of prospects here.
1. Jay Groome, LHP (ranked No. 30)
2. Michael Chavis, 3b (ranked No. 76)
3. Tanner Houck, RHP (Just missed)
4. Bryan Mata, RHP
5. Sam Travis, 1B
6. Alex Scherff, RHP
7. Jake Thompson, RHP
8. Cole Brannen, OF
9. Travis Lakins, RHP
10. Darwinzon Hernandez, LHP
Non-top-100 prospects
Bryan Mata is extremely polished for someone so young, as he won't turn 19 until May but has already had a successful season in low-A, striking out nearly a man an inning with a low walk rate for Greenville last year. He's up to 94, sitting 90-92, with an average changeup that could be plus and a fringe curveball that might get to average. There's some projection here, as he has broad shoulders and looks like he can fill out, but the floor looks good given his feel for pitching and present control. Sam Travis should hit for average, but the raw power he sometimes shows in BP doesn't translate to games, in which his swing gets flatter and produces line drives but not home-run power. He's ready to be someone's starter at first, but the Red Sox want thump at that position right now, and Travis isn't going to provide that unless he alters his launch angle.
Boston took Alex Scherff, a potential late first-rounder who fell on signability concerns, in the fifth round last year after his price dropped. He's been up to 99 and commands the fastball well for something that hard, showing an above-average changeup but no average breaking ball yet. He's 6-foot-3, 205 pounds and athletic, and he has huge upside, though there's reliever risk between the delivery and questions about a third pitch.
Jake Thompson was their fourth-round pick last year and was a sinker/slider guy at Oregon State, but he came to the Red Sox with a plus changeup and a curveball that the Beavers discouraged him from throwing. He'll get up to 96 and sit 93-94, with the ability to get ground balls with the sinker and miss bats with his off-speed stuff. Cole Brannen, their second-round pick, finished eighth in the Gulf Coast League this summer with 30 walks; he had a hand injury in the spring that hampered his power and probably helped the Red Sox get him at pick 63. He's a 70 runner who can handle center field, and the hope is that he'll show more power once his hand is fully recovered after an offseason of rest.
Travis Lakins will show three above-average to plus secondary pitches and can touch 94 with his four-seamer, but the guy cannot stay healthy; the same elbow injury that ended his 2016 ended his 2017, and his awful Double-A stat line shows how he tried to pitch through it. He could be a No. 2 starter with this stuff, but he has thrown 159 innings over two years, and who knows what the future of his elbow will be.
Darwinzon Hernandez can sit 93-94 and touch 97 with a solid-average changeup in the mid-80s, but he doesn't throw consistent strikes with any pitch, and his velocity can fluctuate early in starts. He also doesn't have a real present breaking ball, just overpowering left-handed hitters with velocity. He'll pitch at 21 this year, with no physical projection but a lot of growth potential in his command and the hope that he can find a third pitch.
Right-hander Mike Shawaryn (11) had a solid full-season debut, dominating younger players in low-A, running into some command trouble in high-A. He'll show a 55 fastball and slider, but his arm action seems very likely to push him to the bullpen. Nick Duron's (12) first year back from Tommy John surgery was a success overall, with his fastball back at 92-97 and a short slider up to 87 and mid-80s changeup that both flashed above average or better. He didn't miss many bats in short season last year, in large part because he has 45 or less life on the fastball, so learning to mix his pitches and avoid the heart of the zone with the fastball will be key. His range of outcomes ranges from midrotation starter due to his stuff to middle reliever if he can't strike enough guys out. Tyler Esplin (13), Boston's seventh-round pick in 2017, opened some eyes in the GCL with his raw power and ability to drive the ball the other way. He has a right fielder's arm but might end up at first base given his size; the swing works and the ball comes off well enough that he might still profile even without positional value. Josh Ockimey (14) is a below-average defender at first who has raw power and will take his walks, but I don't think he recognizes pitch types well, in part because he has such a wide base and no stride that he buys himself no extra time to pick up spin or see a changeup.
Lefty reliever Bobby Poyner (15) continues to miss bats, posting a 35 percent K rate after a midyear promotion to Double-A, thanks to a very high spin rate on his fastball. He's not a specialist, with a changeup his best off-speed pitch and reverse platoon splits the past two years, and at just 89-90, he will probably have to keep proving it as he moves up ... but the whiff rates and the fact that he never walks guys (he has walked four left-handed batters in two years) makes me think he'll be a solid middle reliever.
Boston gave Venezuelan infielder Danny Diaz (16) $1.6 million last summer on the promise of his bat; he has a solid approach and plus raw power, with more than enough arm to handle an eventual move to third base. Right-hander Joan Martinez (17) has a very loose arm and works 93-98 with a slider and a new splitter for left-handed batters. His arm action is long, and he's a pure reliever but interesting with the three-pitch mix and solid control.
2018 impact: Probably nobody; Sam Travis could help the club, but it seems like they're going in a different direction.
The fallen: Two 2016 draft picks had mostly lost seasons last year due to injuries, as shortstop C.J. Chatham hurt his hamstring twice and played in only seven games, while Bobby Dalbec re-aggravated an old hamate bone injury, missing close to two months and showing none of his huge raw power until the last month of the season. Dalbec did hit .273/.380/.529 from Aug. 1, with seven homers, though he still punched out in 37 percent of his plate appearances and was old for low-A. Trey Ball, the seventh overall pick in the 2013 draft, was not selected in the Rule 5 draft after the Red Sox chose not to put him on their 40-man roster.
Sleeper: Jake Thompson seems like a completely different prospect than he was before the Red Sox drafted him, with a new pitch mix that includes a better out pitch than he had in the spring.
Final Red Sox note: I want to at least mention Daniel Flores, a Venezuelan catcher whom the Red Sox signed in July 2017 for more than $3 million but who died of a rare, aggressive form of testicular cancer just four months later. These lists celebrate the promise of hundreds of young men whose whole lives appear to be ahead of them, and when someone merely has a bad season, we often turn our attention to the next batch of players in the pipeline, as if the previous prospects never existed. I don't want to see Flores, who was just 17 when he died and never played a professional game, be forgotten.
New York Yankees
The Yankees have drafted well, they've scouted very well internationally, and they've kept most of the "right" guys in trades so far, such that their system is No. 2 in all of MLB even after promotions and a few deals. Their Trenton (Double-A) and Scranton Wilkes-Barre (Triple-A) affiliates should be extremely fun to watch this year.
1. Gleyber Torres, SS (ranked No. 5)
2. Justus Sheffield, LHP (ranked No. 16)
3. Miguel Andujar, 3B (ranked No. 54)
4. Freicer Perez, RHP (ranked No. 73)
5. Albert Abreu, RHP (ranked No. 99)
6. Estevan Florial, of (Just missed)
7. Domingo Acevedo, RHP (Just missed)
8. Dillon Tate, RHP
9. Chance Adams, RHP
10. Luis Medina, RHP
Non-top-100 prospects
Dillon Tate came over in a trade for Carlos Beltran in July 2016, just a year-plus after he was the fourth pick in the country, and the Yankees seem to have restored his lost luster by letting him go back to his college delivery. It's more involved, almost Dontrelle-ish, but it works for Tate, who was 91-97 in a playoff start for Trenton with a solid-average slider and average to grade-55 changeup. The fastball is kind of straight, so it doesn't miss as many bats as you'd think, but he has the mix of pitches to be effective enough for a back-end starter or very good, high-leverage reliever. Chance Adams has performed all the way up to Triple-A, at least by ERA's measure, but doesn't profile as a major league starter, with no real out pitch, fringy control and a lack of plane or life on his fastball. Luis Medina won't turn 19 until May and has been up to 101 with feel already for a curveball and changeup, though he's still fairly crude as a pitcher and not that physically mature. He has more upside than any pitcher in the system, thanks to that arm speed, but he might be a year away from full-season ball, given his youth and present command.
Right-hander Jonathan Loaisiga (11) is 92-96 with a power curveball working as a starter in short season; he's listed at 5-foot-11 and doesn't have a ton of fastball plane or much feel for his changeup yet, but the delivery works, and there is back-end starter potential. Clarke Schmidt (12) blew out his elbow in April, but the Yankees took him in the first round on his track record. Before injury, Schmidt was 94-97 with good life, a short downer mid-80s breaking ball and a big action changeup that he didn't use very often. His arm action is tough to repeat and causes timing issues, though he has never had trouble throwing strikes. He should be able to pitch for at least half of 2018, depending on when he finishes his rehab.
Thairo Estrada (13) looks like a great utility player who can put the ball in play without any power, handle short or second without much trouble and can't just be overpowered with velocity. He'll flash plus running speed, but I've gotten plenty of average times for him from home to first as well. Second-rounder Matt Sauer (14) is a big, athletic right-hander from southern California who's up to 95 and will show a plus curveball, with a violent delivery, including a head-whack and some crossfire action. I know teams that were on him in the late first round and others who were scared by the mechanics.
Taylor Widener (15) has been up to 95 with a solid-average changeup and slider, a 12th-round pick who might just stick as a starter or could be a good long reliever/swingman type because he can get hitters on both sides out. He did seem to tire late in the year, as it was his first full season as a starter going at least back as far as high school. Trevor Stephan (16), their third-round pick in 2017, might run right past the two guys taken before him after a dominant spring and summer; he has a plus fastball and an average slider that improved, while his cross-body delivery didn't stop him from filling up the strike zone or getting lefties out. He was a reliever in junior college in 2016, transferred to Arkansas, and then started all year, wearing down as the summer went on and pitching more 90-94. If he can hold up and carry his best stuff through the year, he might be a steal.
Oswaldo Cabrera (17) is probably a second baseman, though he has played short and third, with a great idea at the plate way beyond what a normal 18-year-old hitter would normally have. He's an average runner without power, so the profile is questionable, but there seems to be everyday upside here. Nick Solak (18) projects as a below-average regular at second, with a little power and good-not-great contact rates, average speed and solid defense, someone who might play above his tools because of his acumen for the game. Cody Carroll (19) has hit the upper 90s, and I've seen 95-96 myself from a high slot that gives him some depth on a curveball. He's a pure reliever, and his command isn't great, but I don't think hitters like the look they get at the ball.
Dermis Garcia (20) has no position and swing-and-misses too much ... but he hit 17 homers in 63 games between short-season and low-A in his age-19 season. He did cut his strikeout rate slightly from 2016, and he'll take some walks, so even if he's a bad first baseman or a DH, he could still end up a valuable big leaguer with this kind of juice. Outfielder Jake Cave (21) might be a good fourth-outfield type who can play all three spots and hit a mistake pitch.
Saul Torres didn't do much at the plate last year as an 18-year-old in the Appy League, hitting .173/.230/.309 with 10 walks and 69 K's in 191 at bats ... but he's a catcher with a strong arm and gets high marks for how he works with pitchers already. He does have some pop in his bat, so there's more promise here than the stat line might imply.
The Yanks also have a lot of guys in their upper levels who project to bench/middle relief roles or are "up-and-down" players -- guys who might come up a few times from Triple-A but aren't likely to stick on the major league roster for long. Billy McKinney is probably left field/first base only but has a pretty left-handed swing that produces some hard contact and fringy power. Ben Heller will show above-average velocity and has a slider and changeup but doesn't have enough command or control at age 26. Domingo German is a fastball/changeup guy who might be a fifth starter but is 90 percent likely to be a bullpen guy. Hoy Jun Park is still just 21, so he has more of a chance to become something more than a fringe player, but so far, he hasn't shown enough defensive prowess to be a pure shortstop or enough hard contact to profile as a second baseman.
2018 impact: It looks like Miguel Andujar will at least get the chance to win the third base job out of spring training. Gleyber Torres might also be allowed to compete for a job at third or second, though with him coming off Tommy John surgery on his non-throwing elbow, he might be best served by returning to Triple-A and trying to make up for lost at-bats. The rotation is full, so starters such as Chance Adams, Domingo Acevedo and Dillon Tate might surface in the bullpen if they appear at all, though any of those three could be trade bait too.
The fallen: Tyler Austin was a top-100 prospect twice, but injuries have derailed his career, from wrist problems that sapped his power to a 2017 season in which he broke a bone in his ankle in spring training, returned in June and strained a hamstring after just four games in the majors, missing all of July. He hit .275/.342/.544 in Triple-A last year, and he's still on the Yankees' 40-man roster, but at 26, he has just about run out of chances to turn into a regular -- and there's no room for him in the Bronx.
Sleeper: Luis Medina is incredibly exciting, just a long way off, but he could be the next great starter prospect in what looks like a line of them from the majors on down.
Tampa Bay Rays
A system that has been long on arms and short on bats in recent years has flipped after a few of the top arms graduated to the majors. The Rays' system is now loaded with position players, many of whom project in the middle of the field, along with one high-ceiling starter and the most intriguing two-way prospect in baseball.
1. Brent Honeywell, RHP (ranked No. 15)
2. Willy Adames, SS (ranked No. 20)
3. Brendan McKay, LHP/1B (ranked No. 28)
4. Jesus Sanchez, OF (ranked No. 34)
5. Lucius Fox, SS
6. Jake Bauers, 1B/OF
7. Christian Arroyo, SS/3B
8. Garrett Whitley, OF
9. Justin Williams, OF
10. Josh Lowe, OF
Non-top-100 prospects
Lucius Fox is very athletic and looks like he'll be a plus defender at short, maybe a 70, with plus speed, great overall athleticism and the quick-twitch actions that hint that there could be some sneaky power there when he fills out. He needs to get quite a bit stronger and has the frame to do so. Jake Bauers is almost too boring for his own good, regularly posting high OBPs and decent but not huge power numbers; he has played the outfield corners but is best at first. He looks like a solid regular there because he will get on base, and it wouldn't surprise me if he ended up a .280-.300 hitter for average but with 10-15 homers a year. Christian Arroyo came over in the Longoria trade after a rough big league debut and a broken hand suffered July 1 that required surgery, an injury he re-aggravated in winter ball. He's a high-contact, low-walk/low-power hitter who can fill in at shortstop but probably fits best as a regular at second base. His arm might be light for third base, but he did play well enough there for the Giants that I wouldn't rule it out.
Garrett Whitley got healthy, relaxed at the plate and started to hit, worrying less about his swing mechanics and focusing more on his approach. He started to drive the ball again as he did in high school, with 13 homers in low-A after hitting just one in short-season the year before. He ran better with the hamstring injury behind him and played well all over the outfield, moving out of center to accommodate Josh Lowe.
Justin Williams got off to an awful start but hit well after a DL stint cost him nearly all of May, hitting .300/.374/.484 the rest of the season with just a 15 percent strikeout rate and 11 homers in just those 76 games, which by itself would be a career high. He showed plenty of pull power in high school, and there might just be cause to believe he's coming into it now with the wood bat and his much-improved approach at the plate. A former shortstop-in-name-only, he's adequate in right field or left. Josh Lowe was awful early but made much more contact in the second half, playing above-average defense in center with ridiculous arm strength. The power he showed in high school hasn't appeared in pro ball, but he did play the whole year at 19 in low-A. There's still length to the swing, and he might just be a high-strikeout guy, which is fine if he gets to that 25-homer power.
Joe McCarthy (11) was bumped from the top 10 when the Rays added Arroyo but might surface as a fringe regular, thanks to his on-base skills and doubles power. He's fully recovered from the back injury that wrecked his junior year at Virginia, still a bit stiff at the plate and limited to first base or left field.
Jose De Leon (12) was hurt and wasn't the same guy when he was on the mound, with flexor strains and a lat injury wrecking his season. He could still have fourth-starter upside, but his health and durability are up in the air. Tobias Myers (13) was the return for Tim Beckham, a 6-foot right-hander who's up to 95 with an average if slurvy breaking ball and good command for someone so young. He pitched at 18 most of the summer in the short-season New York-Penn League, walking just 10 men in 56 innings (4.3 percent of batters). He projects as a starter, with the need to work on his secondary stuff.
Wander Franco (14) is a switch-hitting shortstop prospect the Rays signed last July for $3.85 million. He has a compact body with present strength, so there's raw power already there at age 16, and he has the bat speed to make hard contact on a consistent basis. His arm is plus, so if his body pushes him to third base, he'll be fine there, with the hands and instincts to stay on the dirt. He'll make his professional debut at some point in 2018.
Michael Mercado (15) was supposed to be unsignable last spring, but the Rays bought him out of a Stanford scholarship with a $2.1 million signing bonus. The 6-foot-4 right-hander sits 90-92 now but is very, very projectable and has feel for a curveball already. He might be five years away from the majors, but he also looks very much like a kid who would have been a first-rounder in three years if Stanford didn't blow him out.
Right-hander Yonny Chirinos (16) was a command/control guy who kept the ball on the ground but has started throwing harder with an improved slider, giving him some fourth starter potential. Chih-Wei Hu (16) never failed as a starter in the minors, but there wasn't a path for him to the big-league rotation, so the Rays moved him to the bullpen where his fastball/changeup/whatever that other thing he throws is might play up. (I believe he calls it a palmball.) He's a strike-thrower and does go right after hitters. I'd love to see him stretched out a little more, given his starter experience and mix of pitches, rather than relegated to a one-inning role.
Vidal Brujan (17), a 19-year-old second baseman who hit .287/.378/.415 in Hudson Valley, is a 70 runner who obviously works the count well and at least has the speed and athleticism to play shortstop if the Rays are so inclined. Drew Strotman (18), their fourth-round pick in 2017, hit 97 late this spring after pitching with an average fastball early, then held it over the summer, along with an average breaking ball that gets depth from a high slot. His change needs some work, but there's definite starter upside here. Lefty Genesis Cabrera (19) has worked as a starter up through Double-A, but as a fastball/slider guy who's on the smaller side, he might have more value in relief than as a back-end starter with some platoon issues. Austin Franklin (20) made incremental progress in 2017, showing a little less velocity but better feel to pitch with his fastball, still working on the changeup he'll need to stay a starter long-term.
2018 impact: Chih-Wei Hu should make the team's bullpen out of spring training. Willy Adames, Christian Arroyo and Jake Bauers are probably ready to at least play in the majors, even if they're a few years from their peaks, with possible openings at short, second and maybe third. Hard-throwing reliever Diego Castillo should get time in the major league bullpen as well. Brent Honeywell isn't one of their projected five starters at the moment but should be first in line for a call-up.
The fallen: The Rays' 2011 first-round pick, right-hander Taylor Guerrieri, made the top 100 four times, every year from 2012 through 2016. His 2016 season was very disappointing, as he couldn't hold his velocity deep into games or into the season, and in 2017, he pitched just twice, landing on the disabled list with a non-structural elbow injury that ended his season. The Blue Jays claimed him off waivers in November.
Sleeper: Lucius Fox wasn't far off my top 100 as it is, and a year of growth, both physically and at the plate, would probably put him on it. If you want someone further from the top 100, Wander Franco was the No. 1 player in the July 2 class last year, and it wouldn't be unusual for a player to go from that to the main rankings in a year.
Toronto Blue Jays
The emergence of two of the top teenaged prospects in baseball last year was somewhat mitigated by the regression of many top prospects, including three members of the Jays' Double-A rotation who ranked in my top seven for the organization last year.
1. Vlad Guerrero, Jr., 3B (ranked No. 2)
2. Bo Bichette, SS (ranked No. 17)
3. Anthony Alford, OF (ranked No. 44)
4. Nate Pearson, RHP (ranked No. 100)
5. Logan Warmoth, SS
6. Dan Jansen, C
7. Ryan Borucki, LHP
8. Eric Pardinho, RHP
9. Sean Reid-Foley, RHP
10. T.J. Zeuch, RHP
Non-top-100 prospects
Logan Warmoth was the team's first first-round pick, just a few selections ahead of Pearson, and he still projects as a solid-average regular or more between his defense at shortstop, above-average speed and sound swing that should produce plenty of contact. Dan Jansen had a breakout year in 2017 by staying healthy and getting new glasses -- it's hard to hit a ball you can't see -- hitting .323/.400/.484 at three levels, including Triple-A. He drew 38 unintentional walks against just 40 strikeouts and does make hard contact, projecting to hit eight-to-12 homers in the majors. He's a fringy defender overall, but pitchers like throwing to him, enough that he looks like a regular behind the plate, thanks to his bat.
Ryan Borucki will pitch at 90-93 with a 70 changeup and can reach back for more velocity as needed, with an average slider and an aggressive approach to attacking hitters. He also had his second straight full, healthy season after missing all of 2013 and nearly all of 2015 with elbow and shoulder issues. He could be a fifth starter for the Jays this year, with league-average upside in time. Eric Pardinho signed for $1.4 million, the largest bonus ever given to a Brazilian prospect, last July and earned raves from international scouts for his makeup and feel to pitch at such a young age. He's a little undersized, but everything else you could want in a pitching prospect is there: four pitches, already up to 94 at age 16, command, delivery, athleticism, feel to pitch. People just love this kid and believe he's going to be a big league starter, perhaps sooner than most 16-year-old prospects would get there.
Sean Reid-Foley's year was a disaster, with 22 homers allowed and a 5.09 ERA in 132.2 innings for Double-A New Hampshire. His stuff was there, but his command and his pitch selection got him into trouble, so while he has starter upside, he clearly isn't as far along as it seemed last year, when he made my top 100. T.J. Zeuch, their first-round pick in 2016, posted a 61 percent ground ball rate in high-A but made just 11 starts there around multiple DL stints. He has fourth-starter potential because he gets good plane from a high arm slot, but between his lack of durability and questions about an out pitch, he might not have much ceiling beyond that.
Samad Taylor (11) came over from Cleveland in the Joe Smith trade, having just turned 19 a few weeks before the trade deadline. He's a quick-twitch second baseman who shows bursts of speed on the bases and in his swing, with some physical maturity left ahead of him and the possibility of a move to center. He'll go to low-A Lansing this year as a teenager and has at least everyday player upside, depending on his growth and his plate discipline. Richard Urena (12) has yet to show any real progress in his plate discipline, walking just 28 times in 551 PA for Double-A New Hampshire, his career high in any full-season league, which makes it hard to profile him as more than a utility infielder. He's an above-average defender at short or second and has a little pop, but right now he looks like a chronic sub-.300 OBP guy. Right-hander Elieser Medrano (13) has been up to 94-95 with a hammer curveball, pitching a little bit in the GCL last year at 18, with starter upside depending on how his body fills out and development of his command.
Thomas Pannone (14) came with Taylor in the Smith trade; he's a strike-throwing lefty with a bunch of grade-45 or -50 pitches, but he has tremendous deception that has hitters swinging through fringy stuff, at least so far up through Double-A. Don't rule him out as a back-end starter. Justin Maese (15) was a favorite of mine in their system last year, but shoulder soreness shut him down for two months, and he was ineffective when he tried to pitch through it. Maximo Castillo (16) is a stocky Venezuelan right-hander with feel to pitch and some arm strength who punched out a quarter of opposing batters as an 18-year-old in the Appy League.
Shortstop Luis de los Santos (17) is fast and athletic and can play defense, with some bat-to-ball skills but not enough of an approach yet, drawing just six walks in 200 PAs as a 19-year-old in the GCL, with a few quick promotions to Lansing sprinkled into his season. He'll probably start in low-A this year, his age-20 season, which should give us a sense of whether his bat has a chance to make him a future regular. Hagen Danner (18) was the Jays' second-rounder in 2017, a strong-armed two-way player in high school who is at least starting his pro career as a catcher. He's a bat-first prospect, but he struggled in his pro debut in the GCL. Right-hander Jol Concepcion (19) was 93-97 last year and flashed a plus curveball, but he'll miss the start of 2018 after receiving a 60-day suspension for testing positive for a steroid. Catcher Riley Adams (20) has power and a plus arm, adequate receiving skills and too much swing-and-miss to profile as a solid-average regular, but he should at least make it as a backup.
I do not count Lourdes Gurriel Jr. as a prospect, as he played in Cuba's top league and signed a major league contract (for $22 million) with the Jays after defecting, but his first year here was not a success. The 23-year-old hit .229/.268/.339 between high-A and Double-A, showing just average bat speed, below-average running speed and adequate defense at second when I saw him.
2018 impact: Ryan Borucki seems likely to at least log some time in the Jays' rotation, which has Joe Biagini (5.73 ERA as a starter) penciled into the No. 5 spot and two oft-injured pitchers ahead of him.
The fallen: Max Pentecost, the 11th overall pick in the 2014 draft, played in just 72 games in 2017, bringing his career total to 171, and all the lost time seems to have dragged down his once-promising bat. He'll be 25 this year and still hasn't played a game above Class A. Jon Harris, the Jays' first-round pick in 2015, has been healthy but ineffective, giving up 20 homers in 143 innings in Double-A with a 5.41 ERA, struggling with the lack of a solid breaking ball and the fact that hitters seem to see his fastball too well.
Sleeper: The baseball world thinks so highly of Eric Pardinho that I am inclined to go along with them, even though he's just 16.