We already ran down the top 100 prospects in baseball, so now it's time go deeper by division. Today it's the AL West, starting with the world champion Houston Astros.
To jump to the other teams, click here: Angels | Athletics | Mariners | Rangers
Division overviews: NL East | NL Central | NL West | AL East | AL Central
Editor's note: Age is the player's age as of July 1, 2018. Players with experience in foreign major leagues such as Japan's NPB or Korea's KBO -- think Shohei Ohtani -- are ineligible for these rankings.
Houston Astros
The Astros won the World Series, so does this really matter? The cupboard isn't bare, even with multiple trades for major league help, though the system thins out quickly after the four premium names.
1. Forrest Whitley, RHP (ranked No. 8)
2. Kyle Tucker, OF (ranked No. 21)
3. Yordan Alvarez, 1B (ranked No. 40)
4. J.B. Bukauskas, RHP (ranked No. 74)
5. Cionel Perez, LHP
6. Rogelio Armenteros, RHP
7. Jorge Alcala, RHP
8. Corbin Martin, RHP
9. Hector Perez, RHP
10. J.D. Davis, 3B/1B
Non-top-100 prospects
Cionel Perez is a slightly built lefty who'll work at 88-94 with a solid-average changeup and two inconsistent breaking balls, with a modest reverse platoon split across three levels last year. He pitched at 21 the whole year and finished in Double-A, which would seem to put him on pace to see the majors before his 23rd birthday, with back-end starter potential and a 40-50 percent chance he ends up a reliever.
Rogelio Armenteros keeps getting outs with average stuff, 89-93 with a curveball, change and slider. The change might be his only above-average pitch, but his command and deception have played all the way through Triple-A and even in a couple of starts he made in the PCL's extreme hitters' parks. Jorge Alcala has come a long way as a pitcher the past two years, with his velocity creeping into the mid- to high-90s, a slider and changeup that both have potential, and improved command and control.
Corbin Martin was the Astros' second second-round pick in 2017, selected with one of the picks they got from St. Louis as compensation for the latter's intrusion into Houston's baseball ops system. The Texas A&M product had an up-and-down spring after generating some first-round buzz the previous summer, but Houston went with the scouts who believed his spring performance wasn't indicative of his potential. Martin went out last summer and dominated in the short-season New York-Penn League, which might set him up to jump to high-A to start 2017. He's been 91-93 as a starter with a full repertoire, including a slider and changeup that might both end up plus. There are some delivery concerns, but I think he has a chance for midrotation upside.
Hector Perez is at the other end of the spectrum from Armenteros, 93-96 from a high slot with a hard but very inconsistent curveball and split-like change, with 30 command right now. He walked 67 batters in 89 high-A innings (17 percent) and just doesn't repeat his delivery well enough to throw strikes. It's huge stuff, No. 2 starter material, but without even reliever command. J.D. Davis is blocked in Houston eight ways to Sunday, but with plus power and the potential for an average hit tool, he could probably be a second-division regular right now.
Brandon Bielak (11) was their 11th-round pick last June and walked just five batters in 33 pro innings after he signed, working with a curveball that might end up plus and solid-average or better change. He had a bad spring for Notre Dame, where head coach Mik Aoki has a long history of misusing pitchers dating back to his Boston College days. Bielak might be able to start, but there's a very clear path for him now in relief, with the breaking ball as a potential out pitch. Freudis Nova (12) signed with the Astros in 2016 for $1.2 million and debuted last year in the DSL, showing plus speed, a swing that should produce contact and power and the makings of a true shortstop. He just turned 18 and should make his U.S. debut this season, probably in the GCL or Appy League.
Joe Perez (13) was their first second-round pick, taken three picks ahead of Martin, even though he had Tommy John surgery before the draft and won't play until next year. The third baseman and right-handed pitcher will go out as a position player, with a plus arm at third and big power potential, though the mound will always be there as a backup option. He might DH to start 2018, and we might not get a full read on his skill level until next year.
Jonathan Arauz (14) served a 50-game suspension for a positive PED test but did hit fairly well upon his return for an 18-year-old who finished in low-A and walked more there than he struck out. He has a chance to stick at shortstop and is expected to come into average power, though right now he's a contact guy with a line-drive swing. Even at second base, his bat should play.
Myles Straw (15) is a plus-plus runner who can work the count, drawing 94 walks against 79 strikeouts between high-A and Double-A last year, and he's a plus defender in center, but the total lack of power makes him a long shot to be a regular there. The Astros have had him work out a little in the middle infield, which, if it works, would give his value a huge boost and might be his path to 400-odd at bats. Right-hander Cristian Javier (16) has been steadily gaining velocity as he fills out and pitched well at three levels last year, with solid-average control and good feel for pitching. He has an average fastball now, and if he gets even another half-grade, he would profile as a back-end starter. Framber Valdez (17) is a sub-6-foot lefty who'll touch 96 with a power breaking ball, effective in high-A but increasingly wild in Double-A. He wore down as the year went on and was 89-93 with some fastball life in the Arizona Fall League. There's starter stuff here, but the command isn't close, and his size will work against him.
Brett Adcock (18) and Trent Thornton (19) are both interesting depth starters with broad repertoires, with Adcock showing better pure stuff but poor control and Thornton throwing more strikes but lacking a swing-and-miss pitch. Nathan Perry (20) was their fifth-round pick last year, a high school catcher from Virginia who didn't turn 18 until a month after the draft. He showed great plate discipline in the GCL and has plus left-handed power, while he looks the part of a catcher but has a long way to go to be able to stay at the position.
The Astros took J.J. Matijevic (21) with the second of the two compensatory picks they got from the Cardinals, going for a high-performing college bat without a position. He has power and good bat control, but he has to perform at the plate to even have a chance as a first base/DH type. Outfielder Gilberto Celestino (22) hit .268/.331/.379 in the Appy League as an 18-year-old.
David Paulino started the season on the shelf with elbow soreness, was suspended 80 games for a positive PED test in late June and had surgery in October to remove bone spurs from his throwing elbow. All in all, it was a banner year for Paulino, who was suspended by the team in 2016 for unspecified rules violations. He throws hard without command and has a delivery he'll have a hard time repeating.
Two prospects who made their top 10 last year but stumbled in 2017: Garrett Stubbs couldn't hold his gains at the plate from 2016, hitting .232/.328/.321 between Double-A and Triple-A, as concerns about his lack of power and small frame become more significant in finding a big-league role for him. He has still never caught even 90 games in a pro season and might not hit enough for more than a backup role anyway. Miguelangel Sierra is still a good athlete with power, but his flaws at the plate were exposed in advanced short-season last summer, and his hit tool is very much in question.
2018 impact: Forrest Whitley really is not that far from major league ready, but I think their depth chart makes a debut unlikely. Rogelio Armenteros would get a call first anyway.
The fallen: It's kind of remarkable how few busted draft picks the Astros have had over the past five years. Other than Mark Appel, long since traded to Philly, and the injured Brady Aiken (whom they didn't sign), they've hit pretty regularly on their first- and second-rounders. On the international side, they gave $3.5 million to Cuban shortstop Anibal Sierra, who spent most of last year in high-A and can't hit, field or run, with a .196/.268/.291 line as a 23-year-old.
Sleeper: If Jonathan Arauz stays out of trouble, his feel to hit and chance to play short give him a chance to be an impact prospect in a year or so.
Los Angeles Angels
What a huge difference a few years and a change in organizational philosophy makes, as the Angels, who boasted the worst farm system I'd ever seen (does one boast about such a thing?) in 2016, now have impact prospects, depth and intriguing names, thanks to some promising drafts and international signings.
1. Jordon Adell, OF (ranked No. 55)
2. Jaime Barria, RHP (ranked No. 62)
3. Jahmai Jones, OF (ranked No. 75)
4. Chris Rodriguez, RHP (ranked No. 82)
5. Brandon Marsh, OF (ranked No. 88)
6. Kevin Maitan, 3B
7. Matt Thaiss, 1B
8. Griffin Canning, RHP
9. Michael Hermosillo, OF
10. Jose Suarez, LHP
Non-top-100 prospects
Kevin Maitan made the top 100 last year, but his pro debut in the Atlanta system didn't go as planned, as he got much heavier, didn't work hard or get along with coaches and teammates, and saw his left-handed swing go to pieces. He was made a free agent in November as part of the penalty levied against Atlanta for violations in signing him, so he gets to start over with a clean slate now (and get a second signing bonus). He does still have big-time power, his right-handed swing isn't that bad, and maybe he'll work harder on his conditioning and defense, especially now that he has experienced some failure in the Appy League.
Matt Thaiss gets on base but has no power, so it's hard to call him anything more than a second-division regular as a first baseman. Maybe there's a launch angle change in here somewhere to get him to some power, since he makes hard contact, but I doubt it's ever more than fringe-average. Griffin Canning fell to the Angels in the second round after his pre-draft MRI showed something that teams didn't like. He was worked extremely hard at UCLA, so irregularities in his medicals aren't a surprise, but he has good feel to pitch and can spin a curveball, turn over a changeup and throw a lot of strikes. He's a high risk for injury, but if he stays healthy, he has league-average starter upside.
Michael Hermosillo finished the year in Triple-A after starting in the Cal League, showing enough to cement a floor for him as a fourth outfielder between his above-average speed, patient approach and simple swing. He could probably start for some clubs in center, where you might want more range, or in a corner, where you'd want more homers than he'll provide, though he just turned 23 and might still have another half-grade of power to come.
Jose Suarez's year was even better than it looked, as his line was skewed by one start in low-A in which he gave up seven runs in a third of an inning. Without that outing, his ERA in the Midwest League would have been 2.48, a reduction of more than a run. Pitching at 19 the whole year, Suarez works with a plus changeup he uses to dominate left- and right-handed batters, while his curveball made enough progress to project him as a three-pitch starter. He works with average velocity and doesn't have much projection in his 5-foot-10 frame.
The Angels added right-hander Jesus Castillo (11) to their 40-man this winter after he reached Double-A at the end of 2017. He's a sinkerballer with enormous extension toward the plate in his delivery, working 90-91 with an average curveball and changeup, throwing a ton of strikes and generating a 55 percent ground ball rate on the season across three stops. He looks like a fourth starter now, but if his changeup improves at all, he could be more.
Jose Soriano (12) has the best breaking ball in the Angels' system and works in the mid-90s, with a very good delivery he repeats well. He could have above-average starter upside if his changeup gets to even average (so he doesn't end up vulnerable to lefties) and if he adds some weight to his slight 6-foot-3 frame.
Stiward Aquino (13) has been up to 96 and works in the 92-94 range with a big curveball that's probably second only to Soriano's in the system. At 6-foot-6, he looks the part of a starter but doesn't repeat as well as Soriano does, and his changeup is further behind. He has made just two starts outside of the DSL so far.
Catcher Taylor Ward (14), their first-round pick in 2015, bounced back a little after an awful full-season debut the previous season, repeating high-A but posting a .400 OBP in about six weeks in Double-A at the end of the summer. He has a plus arm and has improved his receiving skills, though that will likely never be a strength for him. He seems like a quality backup who could end up starting if his OBP skills hold up in the absence of game power.
Shortstop Leonardo Rivas (15) showed great plate discipline in the Pioneer League and Midwest League last year, with 59 walks and 44 strikeouts on the season, and stole 19 of 20 bases. He came into 2017 with just 26 games played outside of the Dominican Summer League, but his eye and ability to slide between shortstop and second helped him jump to a full-season league at the end of July. He has a 55 arm and can probably stick at short, which would help him have a chance to be a regular despite a lack of any game power.
The Angels gave Trent Deveaux (16) $1.2 million as a 17-year-old free agent in July, their first foray back in the international market after their two-year penalty for exceeding their bonus pool in 2014 expired. He's a plus-plus runner and center fielder who looks like he's at least going to hit some line drives, with power an open question. Shortstop Livan Soto (17), set free along with Maitan in November, can really defend, but he has no power at all and still has to develop more strength to project to hit enough to see the big leagues.
They hope they found a sleeper in the 11th round in 2017 with Puerto Rican lefty Jeryell Rivera (18), who shows average velocity and a plus changeup with good action along with some feel to cut or sink his fastball. His breaking ball remains a work in progress, but he has a starter's build and delivery.
Luis Pena (19) struggled in the high-A Cal League but still struck out a quarter of the batters he faced, thanks to a plus slider. He's a short right-hander without great command or an average changeup, so it's likely he ends up in relief, a role in which he could shoot up to Triple-A or the majors this year.
Outfielder Brennan Lund (20) was old for A-ball in 2017, posting solid OBPs without power at both levels and struggling badly in Double-A to end the year (three walks and 33 K's in 129 PA's); he has an extra-outfielder ceiling. Right-hander Jake Jewell (21) is up to 96, but neither his changeup nor his slider is an above-average pitch, which has meant he hasn't missed enough bats to project as a starter.
Hector Yan (22) won't even turn 19 until late April, but the Dominican right-hander already touches 96 with good sink and gets good rotation on his breaking ball. Their fourth-round pick in 2017, Iowa right-hander John Swanda (23), was a sleeper for a few scouts in that area, a projectable, athletic shortstop who occasionally pitched. He'll sit around 90 right now but spins a good slider and shows some feel for a changeup. He could be their next Chris Rodriguez. If you're reading this, I hope you appreciate how much deeper this system is now than it was even two years ago.
2018 impact: The only rookie likely to get any significant playing time at all for the Angels in 2018 is Shohei Ohtani, who is the obvious favorite to win the AL Rookie of the Year award but who doesn't appear on my lists because he has played five years in Japan's major leagues.
Sleeper: Jose Soriano generated the most buzz of the Angels' crop of short-season arms last year, with good command for his age and a couple of potential swing-and-miss pitches.
The fallen: The Angels shelled out $8 million for Roberto Baldoquin in 2014, but he didn't hit at all in two seasons in high-A and was demoted to low-A for the entire 2017 season. He didn't hit there either and spent the last two-plus months on the disabled list.
Oakland Athletics
A couple of midseason trades last year did a lot to bolster this system, while their 2016 draft class looks like one of their most productive in years even with two of their top picks recovering from elbow surgeries.
1. A.J. Puk, LHP (ranked No. 13)
2. Jorge Mateo, SS (ranked No. 39)
3. James Kaprielian, RHP (ranked No. 56)
4. Franklin Barreto, SS (ranked No. 94)
5. Jesus Luzardo, LHP
6. Dustin Fowler, OF
7. Austin Beck, OF
8. Logan Shore, RHP
9. Sheldon Neuse, INF
10. Sean Murphy, C
Non-top-100 prospects
Jesus Luzardo came over in the midseason trade that sent Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson to the Nationals, just three starts into his return from spring 2016 Tommy John surgery. His fastball sat at 94-95 mph last summer to go with a plus changeup and average breaking ball, and he was clearly the main target in the deal for Oakland given his potential No. 2 starter upside. I don't rank players beyond 100, but he was in the next group of 15-20 names, with durability his main question.
Dustin Fowler was the third piece in the Sonny Gray trade along with Mateo and Kaprielian, but he's the one who will appear in the majors this year, a definite fourth outfielder with some everyday potential depending upon how his knee recovers from June surgery to repair a ruptured patellar tendon. If he can still run like he did before the injury and can still play center, he has some above-average regular upside given his power and bat speed, although he has never been an on-base guy because he's so aggressive at the plate.
Austin Beck was Oakland's 2017 first-round pick (picked sixth overall) out of a North Carolina high school, boasting some of the best tools in the draft class but a raw approach. He was awful right out of the gate in the AZL but better in the second half of his season -- he hit .182/.241/.234 with a 33 percent strikeout rate through July 31, but .240/.341/.467 with a 26 percent K rate afterward.
Logan Shore was their second-round pick in 2016 but was actually the Friday night starter for the University of Florida, ahead of 2017 first-rounder Puk. Shore pitched at just average in college, succeeding with a solid changeup and impeccable command, but in 2017 he came out firing at 92-94 mph, still showing the good changeup, and was effective in High-A around a lat strain (plus one awful start right after he came off the DL). He's a definite starter, probably limited to No. 4 or 5 status right now because he doesn't have an average breaking ball, but someone who might pitch a long time as is because of his command.
The trade with Washington also brought back infielder Sheldon Neuse, a high-IQ player with a short swing who makes a lot of contact, lacking the tools to play short or profile at a corner, so he's either a regular at second or, more likely, a good utility infielder. Sean Murphy has an 80 arm, plus power and enough of the other stuff to give him a chance to be an everyday catcher. He makes contact but doesn't project to hit for much average, and his receiving is still a work in progress. He has shown patience so far in pro ball, so even as a low-average hitter he might have enough OBP skills to be more than a catch-and-throw backup.
Lazaro Armenteros (11) signed for $3 million in July 2016, then made his debut last summer at age 18, with 41 games in the AZL where he hit .288/.376/.474. He's a strong, stout 6-footer who doesn't throw well enough for his natural position of shortstop, so the A's moved him to left field, raising the bar for his bat to play. He has more power now than he has shown in games, with an unorthodox swing that so far seems to work for him to at least make hard contact. The position makes it hard to forecast him as a regular right now, but at 19 this year he does have time to show he has more offensive production in him.
Shortstop Nick Allen (12) is all of 5-foot-8, but height don't measure hit tools ... or something like that. Allen can play the heck out of short, with great instincts, soft hands and excellent footwork. He runs above-average to plus, and has a short swing with enough hand strength to drive it to the off-field gap, but probably tops out in the single digits in homers. Pro scouts were less impressed than amateur scouts, and I think Allen is going to have to hit at least at Double-A before the industry will truly buy in.
Grant Holmes (13) struck out a man an inning in Double-A at age 21, although he had something of a feast-or-famine season: He made 24 starts, and gave up zero or one earned runs in 10 of them, but gave up five or more earned runs in seven of them, including two eight-earned run outings. Previously a big ground ball guy, he lost that last year, giving up more flyouts and line drives as he pitched up more with his plus but somewhat straight fastball. He's a three-pitch guy but almost certainly a reliever because he doesn't hold plus stuff for more than an inning or two.
Greg Deichmann (14) was their second-round pick as a senior out of LSU, a good college performer who's athletic enough to be an asset in an outfield corner but who may not have the power for it. He'll turn 23 in May. They took shortstop Kevin Merrell (15) with the 33rd overall pick from South Florida; he's a 70 runner with a short swing that puts the ball in play with no power. He has limited experience at shortstop and may end up in center field.
Ramon Laureano (16) came over in a trade from Houston for right-hander Brandon Bailey, after Laureano had a miserable season in Double-A, losing 136 points off his BABIP from 2016 to 2017. He has a good swing for contact and an all-fields approach with above-average speed and a decent eye, so his season last year was a mystery.
Casey Meisner (17) had a strong run once he joined High-A Stockton's rotation in mid-May, earning a promotion to Double-A where he struggled with his control for a month before settling down. After the A's experimented in 2016 with dropping his arm slot down to help him get more ground balls, Meisner is back to throwing high three-quarters now, getting more depth on his curveball and better results against left-handed batters, but still doesn't repeat his delivery enough to profile as a starter.
They had two interesting teenagers on their AZL team in Yerdel Vargas (18) and Marcos Brito (19). Brito signed for $1.1 million in July 2016, can play both middle infield positions well, and can hit a little but without any projected power. Vargas signed the same month for $1.5 million and is also an above-average defender at short, with some more strength and a better build for power, but showed a worse approach at the plate in the complex league. Right-hander Skylar Szysnki (20), their fourth-rounder in 2016, missed all of 2017 with an elbow injury that required surgery but not a full ligament replacement, so he may be able to pitch in 2018.
2018 impact: Fowler should get a crack at the Opening Day lineup, as the A's don't have a true center fielder on the roster. Barreto will probably be up before the midpoint, although it would help his cause if he'd raise his contact rate in Triple-A.
Sleeper: Luzardo wasn't that far off the top 100 anyway, and a healthy 2018 season in Low-A with the stuff he showed in short bursts last year would put him somewhere near the middle of the list.
The fallen: Dakota Chalmers was their third-round pick in 2015, receiving an over-slot bonus of $1.2 million, but wildness has derailed his career to date. He walked a man an inning last year in Low-A before he left the team in late May for "a personal issue." He returned to Arizona in August and participated in simulated games during fall instructs.
Seattle Mariners
This is the worst farm system in baseball this year, with no top-100 prospects or anyone particularly close. There's little depth in the organization, with two of their top 15 prospects being 16-year-olds who just signed on the international market.
1. Kyle Lewis, OF
2. Evan White, 1B
3. Sam Carlson, RHP
4. Julio Rodriguez, OF
5. Joe Rizzo, 3B
6. Max Povse, RHP
7. Dan Vogelbach, DH
8. Braden Bishop, OF
9. Anthony Jimenez, OF
10. Eric Filia, 1B/3B
Non-top-100 prospects
Kyle Lewis was the Mariners' first-round pick in 2016, taken 11th overall, but he tore his ACL in his first pro season and has not fully recovered from the injury, playing in just 49 games last year. He went to the Arizona Fall League but played just two more games there before he was taken off the roster because of further knee problems. I think any chance of him playing center is now gone, so he's a corner outfielder with big power upside, but he has work to do on pitch recognition and selection -- and that's assuming the knee eventually heals completely enough for him to play a full season.
Evan White was the Mariners' first-rounder last year, taken at pick 17. He's an elite defensive first baseman who can run and puts the ball in play but has shown just average power so far. He has a good approach and the strength to eventually drive the ball out, so if he tweaks his swing angle upward he might still end up a 20-homer guy. At worst, he's an everyday first baseman between his defense and likely above-average OBP skills.
The M's went over slot in the second round last year with Sam Carlson, giving the big Minnesota prep righty $2 million and nabbing another first-round talent. Carlson will pitch at 92-96 with a solid-average or better changeup, and he has starter size. His ceiling is going to come down to whether he finds a consistent breaking ball as a third pitch. Julio Rodriguez was the Mariners' big investment in the July 2 signing period, taking home $1.75 million on the promise of his bat, which already shows plus power in BP. The big right-handed hitter looks like a prototypical middle-of-the-order right fielder ... but of course, he hasn't made his pro debut yet.
Joe Rizzo was their second-rounder in 2016, a short, strong high school infielder with a good approach but limited ceiling due to lack of a clear position and fringy power. He has moved to third base in pro ball and spent his first full year in low-A at age 19, posting a .354 OBP with no power. The hope is that his feel to hit and his eye will make him a strong enough on-base guy for him to be a regular somewhere, though his defense still needs work.
Max Povse is a fifth starter with a chance for a little more depending on the development of his breaking ball, as he's otherwise working with three average-ish pitches and very good control. Dan Vogelbach has never really had a position, but he can hit, and he has some game power and a good idea at the plate, at least making him a platoon DH with some weakness against southpaws. Braden Bishop had a breakout year in high-A and Double-A at age 23, posting a .393 OBP on the season, and he plays above-average defense in center. There's an outside chance to be a regular here, but the lack of power hurts him, and he might not post high batting averages as he faces better pitching.
Anthony Jimenez had a solid first half in the Midwest League before his season-ending injury on June 25. He's a plus runner with bat speed and surprised with seven homers in 64 games last year, albeit with poor strikeout and walk rates. He's an above-average defender in center with the arm for right. Low on-base skills and his age (22 this season) make him a probable fourth outfielder. Eric Filia has shown enough ability to hit that he might make it as a bench guy who can play third or first, take good at bats and turn on a good fastball for extra bases. He isn't producing enough pop to be a regular, though he's more than the org player he looked like as a 20th-rounder out of UCLA. Second baseman Joseph Rosa (11) hit .296/.374/.531 as a 20-year-old in the Northwest League last year, continuing to show good feel for the strike zone and an ability to make contact. His ultimate position is the main question, but the hope is that he'll be adequate on defense at second and hit enough that no one cares.
Art Warren (12) moved to the bullpen full-time last year and saw his fastball jump to the upper 90s, topping out at 99 in the Arizona Fall League with an above-average slider. Matthew Festa (13) also moved to the bullpen after starting in college, working 93-95 with an above-average slider as well and enough of a changeup to avoid being just a right-handed specialist.
The M's gave $1.225 million to Venezuelan shortstop Juan Querecuto (14), a 6-foot-2, lean, right-handed hitter who has a good feel for the game and projects to stay at shortstop with a chance for high contact and maybe some power. Outfielder Luis Liberato (15) can play center and has some speed but hasn't hit through his age-21 season and might be an up-and-down guy. Third-rounder Wyatt Mills (16) is a side-arming right-hander up to 94 with a slider, a senior sign out of Gonzaga who should be a righty-killer, striking out 21 of 48 right-handed batters he faced in his pro debut.
2018 impact: Vogelbach deserves a spot on the roster, as he can at least contribute as a part-time DH and valuable left-handed bat off the bench. Povse could make a spot start or two if the Mariners' rotation really breaks down. Festa could zip to the majors in a short relief role.
Sleeper: Assuming GM Jerry DiPoto doesn't trade them all, White is the most likely guy here to jump on to the top 100 next year, with Carlson and Rosa worthy of keeping an eye on but probably one year further away.
The fallen: The Mariners gave Canadian outfielder Gareth Morgan $2 million as their second-round pick in 2014, but he has never hit in pro ball, striking out 185 times (40 percent of his PA) in his full-season debut in 2017 as a 21-year-old.
Texas Rangers
The Rangers have received so much help from their farm system over the past decade that you could take the talent flow for granted, but it's now as thin as it has been since I started ranking prospects. They don't have much pitching on the way, but there are still high-ceiling, high-risk position player prospects.
1. Leody Taveras, OF (ranked No. 45)
2. Willie Calhoun, OF
3. Bubba Thompson, OF
4. Cole Ragans, LHP
5. Ronald Guzman, 1B
6. Hans Crouse, RHP
7. Yohander Mendez, LHP
8. Kyle Cody, RHP
9. Josh Morgan, C/INF
10. Anderson Tejeda, SS
Non-top-100 prospects
Willie Calhoun, who was acquired in the trade that sent Yu Darvish to L.A., can hit and has surprising power for his size, but he has no position and might have to DH, as he's about a 40 defender in left field. He's also about 5-foot-6, not his listed 5-foot-8, and the recent history of hitters that short who can't run is very limited, with virtually none hitting for power.
Bubba Thompson was the Rangers' first-round pick in 2017, an Alabama football/baseball star who has an intriguing power-speed combination and some feel for the strike zone already. He flashed 7 speed in the Arizona Rookie League, though I know some folks have seen even more than that, and while he didn't walk much in his pro debut, he wasn't lost or a hacker. He has a Brian Jordan sort of upside with similar explosiveness. The one knock on Thompson is that he was 19 at time of the draft, so he almost has to go to low-A this year at age 20.
Cole Ragans was a first-round pick in 2016 and spent last summer in the Northwest League, where he had a surprisingly high walk rate for a polished pitcher who repeats his delivery. His fastball sits in the low 90s, with a plus changeup and average breaking ball that's good enough to keep him a starter but perhaps not yet the left-on-left weapon teams might want from him. His floor should be high, though the walks (35 in 57.1 innings) are a bit concerning.
Ronald Guzman hit .298/.372/.434 at age 22 Triple-A, as he has become a contact hitter with less power than you'd guess, given his 6-foot-5, 205-pound build. He's fine at first, probably a soft 50 there, so if he hits like this in the majors, he's probably a regular. Bat speed has never been Guzman's strength, and he might still not be able to catch up to better big league stuff. Hans Crouse was their second-round pick in 2017 and tore apart the AZL in short stints, running his fastball up to 99 with a grade-80 slider. He has a changeup for a full starter's repertoire, but it's a high-effort delivery, and Crouse pitches with so much intensity that he seems ideally suited to a late-game relief role. Yohander Mendez is a two-pitch starter who might end up a bullpen guy, bringing above-average velocity and a plus or better changeup but lacking an average breaking ball. Despite the pitch mix, he was much better against lefties this year because he doesn't extend well and can't command the ball to his glove side.
Texas took Kyle Cody in the sixth round in 2016 and brought him along slowly, sending the 22-year-old Kentucky product to low-A, but he was dominant there and very good in high-A in August, working 93-97 with an above-average slider. He's still probably too upright in his delivery, flying open and providing no deception against right-handers. He's developing his changeup and has a chance for three pitches, though he's most likely to end up in relief as a primarily fastball/slider guy.
Josh Morgan caught 36 games last year, receiving well enough that you can project him as at least a backup, though his arm is fringy. More concerning, though, is the fact that he just didn't hit, posting a .318 OBP and .380 SLG in high-A at age 21. He's still learning the position while playing part-time at short and second, which is a lot to ask of a young player, so perhaps the bat will catch up a year or two later. Devin Mesoraco and Carson Kelly each had two lost years at the plate before they broke out -- Mesoraco when he first signed, Kelly when he first converted. Anderson Tejeda has plus-plus bat speed with big raw power but swings at everything, striking out 30 percent of the time in low-A Hickory. He has at least average running speed but doesn't move well enough laterally to stay at shortstop, and second base will probably require some work. It's an academic question if he doesn't hit, and if he does hit, he'll have enough power to profile anywhere on the field.
Pedro Gonzalez (11) was the main piece coming back for Jonathan Lucroy and is a well-rounded center fielder who can do a little of everything -- run, field, throw, hit -- except hit for power, which is entirely projection at this point. He'll play at 20 all year and has more physical upside than most guys in the system. Lefty Brett Martin (12) has more starter potential than Mendez or Cody if he could just stay healthy, which he can't, missing two months last year with an oblique strain. He's been up to 95 and will sit 92 with a solid changeup and two breaking balls that can run into each other. In three full seasons since he was drafted, he has thrown 249 total innings in 51 starts and hasn't reached 100 innings in any season, so while he has a starter's arsenal, he hasn't shown the durability for the role.
Outfielder Miguel Aparicio (13) has tremendous instincts for his age, a 45 runner who plays above-average defense in center because of his acumen and reads. He projects to hit for contact rather than power and has a sound approach for someone so young, so if he gets a little stronger, he has a chance to be an everyday player in center or, if his speed slips at all, a good fourth outfielder.
Chris Seise (14) seemed like a sure shortstop coming out of the draft but pro scouts weren't wowed by him over the summer. He raked in the AZL for a month and then struggled against older competition in the advanced short-season Northwest League. He has a very good swing that should help him hit for average and at least doubles power if he gets stronger. Ariel Jurado (15) can really sink the ball and has a good changeup, but the Panamian right-hander couldn't miss any bats in Double-A and has shown he doesn't have the conditioning to hold up under a starter's workload. Right-hander Joe Palumbo (16) came out throwing hard to start 2017 but blew out his elbow three starts into the season and won't be back until late spring or early summer.
Jonathan Hernandez (17) is up to 97 and shows good two-seam life even at 93-95, along with a hard slider and mid-80s changeup. He has below-average command right now and telegraphs his breaking stuff by changing his arm angle. Mike Matuella (18) had the healthiest season of his adult life, throwing 75 innings -- a career best, including college -- with low-A Hickory, working mostly with his fastball and changeup. His fastball is still in the mid-90s but very true, and without his slider, he got hit around by much younger hitters. Right-hander Alex Speas (19) still throws hard with a plus slider but hasn't figured out how to repeat his delivery even a little bit, walking 15 percent of batters he faced in the Northwest League. They took Phillies center field prospect Carlos Tocci (20) in the Rule 5 draft. Tocci can play center, and his swing is good, but he has no power at all, and his body just hasn't filled out at all the past four years.
David Garcia is probably the best defensive catching prospect they have, but their big July 2, 2016, signing ($800,000) had a poor pro debut in the DSL at 17. They do have several other catchers who project as big leaguers but likely backups, including Matt Whatley, Sam Huff and Yohel Pozo.
2018 impact: Willie Calhoun is penciled in as the team's left fielder to start the year. Yohander Mendez could spend time in the major league bullpen if they decide he isn't a long-term starter.
Sleeper: Cole Ragans has the three pitches and repeatable delivery everyone wants to see in a potential midrotation starter, and if he can curb the free passes, he'll soar up the rankings.
The fallen: Eric Jenkins, their second-round pick in 2015 (45th overall), repeated low-A in an injury-shortened season and regressed even further from a poor 2016 by hitting .207/.264/.289 around hamstring problems. Their two big signings in the 2013 July 2 period, Yeyson Yrizarri ($1.3 million) and Jose Almonte ($1.9 million), haven't panned out at all, with Almonte failing to hit in low-A last year and Yrizarri heading to the White Sox in a trade for international bonus money.