While not halfway through the season using mathematical criteria, the All-Star break is the traditional midpoint: a respite from the day-to-day grind that provides an opportunity to look back and make some changes.
For each of the 30 teams, I'm proposing one change, whether to the lineup or the staff or something that needs to be accomplished with deliberate speed. And since my nearly four decades of existence has led me to believe that people are not overly thrilled with backseat drivers, assume that all these moves are enforced by the threat of some kind of Doomsday Laser.
(Editor: Dan, please check your email, re: Use of Doomsday Laser.)
I've just been told that I might not use a Doomsday Laser or the threat of creating a new era of humanity from my undersea fortress, so you'll have to use your imagination.
Also, we're going to list teams from worst to first, according to our current MLB Power Rankings, so that we get less depressing as we go down the page.
At this point, it's a waste of time to just leave Rhys Hoskins in the minors, crushing Triple-A pitchers when he should get accustomed to trying to terrorize the MLB ones. Yes, the team already has a first baseman and Hoskins is unlikely to be a good outfielder, but the point isn't winning games now, it's about learning things about the future. It's good the team pulled the plug on Michael Saunders, but the Phillies are still acting more like a team that's further ahead in the rebuilding process than it is.
29. San Diego Padres
The Padres have done a lot of good things during their rebuild and in challenging their best prospects in the majors without putting them in and out of the lineup/rotation, with Dinelson Lamet being the best example. However, even before Allen Córdoba's hand injury, the team was still not fully committed to trying Córdoba at shortstop full-time. Yes, Erick Aybar is the better shortstop right now, but the wins are meaningless for the Padres, and finding out what Córdoba and Carlos Asuaje can do is more important than maximizing their 2017 record.
A team comeback isn't coming in 2017 and a Matt Cain comeback (to his 2012 form) is increasingly looking as if it's never going to happen. A Madison Bumgarner return probably kicks Cain out of the rotation, but with a Johnny Cueto trade possible, the Giants should take a look at Andrew Suarez, rather than possibly giving Cain his job back. Tyler Beede might have the higher ceiling, but Suarez is the better pitcher right now, and spacious AT&T Park in a lost season might be a better home than the Pacific Coast League for a pitcher with solid but not overwhelming stuff.
Rajai Davis isn't helping the A's win now and playing him doesn't help the A's win later. Neither Jaff Decker nor Mark Canha are going to be stars, or even above-average starters, but it's more productive to see what they can actually contribute rather than giving at-bats to Davis.
26. Cincinnati Reds
If Zack Cozart plays a game for the Reds in August, something has gone seriously wrong with their planning. Two years ago, the Reds made a blunder in not trading Todd Frazier at the peak of his value, hot off the All-Star Game -- and even in that case, they at least had the chance to get something for him in the offseason. The team doesn't have that luxury with Cozart, and a rebuilding team talking extension with a soon-to-be-32-year-old shortstop having his best season by far is just crazy talk.
Finish the job. Prospects are uncertain and there's no such thing as having a farm system that's too good. Most of the veterans on the team have less trade value than they did three months ago -- with David Robertson the exception -- and the team has gotten very little benefit from hanging onto them.
Baltimore now has the second-worst Pythagorean record in the American League and the rotation has exactly zero starters it can truly count on for a stretch run. It's now time to turn to the future. There are lots of trades the Orioles could make if they chose to, but let's be a bit creative and play Manny Machado at shortstop for the rest of the season. J.J. Hardy isn't healthy or even good at this point, so there's no reason to not see what Machado can do with a real, significant stretch at shortstop, longer than the one he had in 2016.
23. Detroit Tigers
It's time to come off the price when talking about Justin Verlander. A team that is willing to pick up his full contract and give significant prospects, as Detroit has made noise about requiring, ought to be questioned by the commissioner. It might be a negotiating position, but Detroit has spent the past year-and-a-half talking rebuild and then backing off at the slightest difficult decision, as seen by its lukewarm winter. The biggest change Detroit needs is a front office/ownership that realizes there's no longer a retool window and their empire looks like Rome in 450 AD.
22. New York Mets
Can we stop pretending that Jose Reyes is a major leaguer? Amed Rosario needs to be on the team now and not just for the future -- he helps the team right now more than Reyes. But they should make this change even if he wasn't. Do we really need a repeat of the Michael Conforto disaster, in which the Mets did everything they could to not give Conforto a full-time job at the start of the season, only "lucking" into it when injuries forced their hand?
21. Miami Marlins
The ownership situation makes it more dicey politically, but it's necessary, for the future of the team, to start the fire sale as soon as possible. The farm system is a wreck and what crumbs that were left were traded away for marginal gains over the last calendar year. This team needs to start rebuilding sooner rather than later.
While generally well run, it's bizarre that the Pirates are rewarding Andrew McCutchen's offensive comeback by deciding to keep him in a defensive position that he can no longer play well. It's silly to attribute his offensive comeback to playing center field -- he proved he could be plenty mediocre playing center -- and it's not increasing his value any. It's probably better to leave other teams wondering whether Cutch can still play center than removing all doubt that he can't.
19. Atlanta Braves
After a blazing hot start, Matt Kemp's recent struggles, exacerbated by his hamstring issues, have actually sent his season OPS+ plunging right to the level of his 2015-2016 campaigns. Atlanta could probably have done better for Kemp two months ago, but he's still hitting enough that a team with a designated hitter and a hint of desperation might have some interest, and the Braves should seize any opportunity to trade him that arises. "Designated hitter" is the key phrase in that previous sentence. Despite the stories in spring training about him being in "the best shape of his life," he's still one of the worst defensive outfielders imaginable.
Speaking of teams that could theoretically use Matt Kemp as a designated hitter, the Blue Jays look like one as they are 14th in the American League in runs scored. They've done well to right themselves after a horrific start, but the wins are coming too slowly to catch up without getting more offense from somewhere, whether it's Kemp or J.D. Martinez or Justin Upton or whoever. The Blue Jays might be more in retool mode than rebuild mode right now, but they have to do something unless they're going to throw in the towel on 2017.
17. Seattle Mariners
If there's a team that has incentive to overpay for a starting pitcher, it's the Mariners, who had a scary stretch this season when Yovani Gallardo was their only healthy starter, a bit like needing to commute to work and realizing your only means of transportation is a rusty tricycle the neighbor's kid left in your yard. If the Tigers become realistic on Verlander, someone who can throw six to seven innings and not be horrible is something the team really needs.
Alex Meyer certainly has control issues, but his erratic brilliance still beats the nonexistent version of most of the rest of the rotation. Better a guy walking to first base than watching a player trot around the bases, which is Ricky Nolasco's specialty. With the health of Tyler Skaggs, Garrett Richards and Matt Shoemaker all in doubt to varying degrees, Meyer projects, per the ZiPS system, as the team's best surviving starter.
While Michael Wacha's strikeout rate is back to where it was in his rookie season, he also hasn't gotten into the seventh inning since April and has failed to finish the fifth in nearly a third of his starts. Given the team's bullpen problems, it makes a lot of sense to move Luke Weaver to the rotation and give Wacha some high-leverage relief innings, where his stuff probably would play better than Weaver's. Not that you give up on Wacha as a starter long term, but as long as the Cards are competing, it's a better use of resources.
14. Minnesota Twins
Aside from Jose Berrios and Ervin Santana -- though the latter's 4.68 FIP suggests a big downside -- the team's rotation will be hard-pressed to keep up with the Indians over the season's second half. Nor does it seem a good idea to trade prospects for a win-now type of move. Why not try to catch lightning in a bottle and get Stephen Gonsalves and Fernando Romero into the rotation? Maybe they pitch like the 2016 Berrios, but they're the only probable source of pitching upside this season, which is something the team needs.
13. Texas Rangers
Time to ditch the first-base platoon. Mike Napoli's looking like toast and Joey Gallo didn't show unusually large platoon splits in the minors. Even if you don't want Gallo starting against the toughest lefties, Napoli isn't the answer. The team has overperformed offensively (444 runs versus 408 runs created) and the wild-card race is going to come down to just a win or two, with this many teams involved.
It's time to end the Alcides Escobar era. Yes, Raul Mondesi was a disaster in April, but given the chance to settle down in Triple-A -- he was promoted a bit too rapidly in 2016 -- he actually has started hitting, with an .891 OPS for Omaha. And Escobar has been a disaster the entire season, not just over a two-week period, as Mondesi was. It's nice they got Escobar out of the starting lineup, what with the Royals having the worst leadoff OBP in recorded history (if the season ended today), but it's not enough as 2017 is K.C.'s last chance at relevance. It's time for big ideas.
11. Chicago Cubs
I'm going to cheat here and say that the thing the Cubs need to do most is to not make any major changes. It's largely the same core that got them their World Series title, after all, and making a major trade when the solution isn't obvious can largely be counterproductive. There's very little research on the long-term consequences of moving players around, but I'm starting to wonder whether an underperforming team like the Cubs should dial back on the shuffling a little bit.
10. Tampa Bay Rays
It's time for Brent Honeywell, and I'm not just saying that because I'm a sucker for a pitcher with a screwball. Jacob Faria, Honeywell, and eventually Jose De Leon are the future of the Rays, and Tampa Bay's best seasons owed a large part to the fact that the Rays were never afraid to make the future now. Honeywell's ERA in Durham (4.54) is misleading; he had a 2.84 FIP for the Bulls. He's a better addition than most teams will "add" at the trade deadline.
One thing smart organizations do is give minor leaguers opportunities to prove the team wrong. Mike Tauchman absolutely should not have been considered a serious prospect coming into the season. But he has exploded in a big way this year, hitting 11 of his 19 professional homers this season, and more important, the Rockies have been getting literally nothing out of their corner outfield spots this season. Their combined 71 wRC+ in the corners this season is the third worst in baseball, behind only the Giants and Royals, so why not roll the dice and see what Tauchman, who was sent back to Albuquerque on Friday, can do? It's not as if Carlos Gonzalez has done anything this year, and tenure is a poor way to make baseball decisions.
The Brewers got to where they are this season by catching lightning in a bottle. Well, that and the Cubs stinking, but let's go with lightning for now. Josh Hader has the highest upside of any starting pitcher currently on the roster, so why not be a little aggressive and get him into the rotation now, where he can do the most good if it works out? And if the team wants to give a top prospect pitcher an apprenticeship in relief, there's a perfectly good Luis Ortiz lurking.
The team has two of the scariest relievers in baseball in Aroldis Chapman and Dellin Betances. But what the team has lacked is real creativity in using these assets. There are 34 relievers with at least five saves this year, and among that group, Betances and Chapman rank 26th and 28th in leverage index when entering the game, at 1.39 and 1.37 respectively (it takes a 1.7 to get into the top 10). Yet Tyler Clippard at 1.36 has been used, essentially, in similarly crucial situations, and his ERA is north of 5.00.
The player in Cleveland's lineup with the worst on-base percentage is Jason Kipnis at .292. He has started most games in the leadoff spot. The player in Cleveland's lineup with the second-worst on-base percentage is Francisco Lindor at .312. Both are fine players but are miscast as top-of-the-order guys on a team with four players with an on-base percentage of at least .350.
Remember the note above about the Yankees not using their top relievers in high-leverage situations? Fernando Rodney has been used in the highest-leverage situations of any reliever in baseball (minimum 20 innings). Has that ever struck anybody as a good idea? Andrew Chafin and Archie Bradley are the team's two best relievers. Give them the most crucial situations. It's OK to demote Rodney -- that's not a real longbow he's carrying on the mound.
Rafael Devers is hitting .300/.369/.575 in Double-A this season. Red Sox third basemen have a .625 OPS combined, better than only the Giants. Devers, as legend has it, just happens to play third base. Come on, Boston, this is a more obvious pairing than peanut butter and chocolate.
I've read MLB's collective bargaining agreement, and I see no clause that explicitly forbids kidnappi- (Editor: Dan, please check your email -- again.) OK, so absconding with an O's reliever won't fly, but the Orioles aren't really using their bullpen. There's no team in the league with a more compelling need to overpay for relief pitching than the Nats. This is a team that needs to be aggressive in picking up relievers in the coming weeks.
The Astros have a 16½-game lead in the AL West and a 10-game lead for home-field advantage throughout the AL playoffs. Houston could acquire Tim Tebow and bench Carlos Correa to play Tebow at short, and they might still lap the field by the end of September. Upgrading from Carlos Beltran at DH would be prudent but probably isn't necessary.
Yasiel Puig's on pace to get near 30 homers for the first time in his career, but big picture rather than counting dingers: He's not actually hitting any better (103 OPS+) than he has over the past two seasons (104 OPS+). The talks of his resurgence are mostly because of the recency bias created by a solid June (.965 OPS). Last month aside, I'd be surprised if Alex Verdugo wasn't a better overall player than Puig was at this point. While it's hard to make the move work from a roster standpoint, remember, I'm the guy with the Doomsday Laser. (Editor: Dan ... check your email.)