It’s a bit mind-boggling to think about how far the starting first basemen for the 2017 All-Star game in Miami have come. Sure, there are surprises every season, but Justin Smoak hit .217 for the Toronto Blue Jays in 2016, and most laughed at the thought he’d be able to replace the lost production when Edwin Encarnacion signed with Cleveland. Well, laugh on! Smoak, 30, is having the superior season, finally reaching the potential so many saw for him years ago in Seattle and surpassing it, with 23 home runs and a .935 OPS in 87 games.

Then there’s longtime Washington Nationals infielder Ryan Zimmerman. He hit a mere .218 last year! He’s 32. Can’t play third base anymore. Can’t stay healthy. Frankly, the Adam Lind signing over the winter made it seem like the Nationals were wisely planning ahead for more first-base disappointment. Zimmerman, like Smoak, was mostly forgotten in ESPN average live drafts, and for good reason. Today he’s hitting .330 with 19 home runs and 63 runs batted in, bidding to return to 100 RBIs for the first season since 2009.

As we hit the All-Star break, it’s a natural intermission for fantasy owners to take stock of the first three months of the 2017 campaign, while also planning ahead. Numbers will change, of course. Some first-half stars will improve and others will not. So we decided an All-Star edition of the Stock Watch – hitters today, then pitchers separately – made sense. For Smoak and Zimmerman, further inspection of their numbers shows neither is truly a fluke. They’ve made clear adjustments to their respective games, either technically or in approach. They look pretty legit!

Smoak has never boasted a strikeout rate this low. Always a patient hitter, his contact rate has finally jumped, and much of it because his two-strike approach is considerably better. It doesn’t directly explain the power, but he always had that lurking. This isn’t about BABIP. This isn’t launch angle or a guy hitting more fly balls either. He’s finally just, well, good. Zimmerman has been plenty good in the past, but he’s turned newfound health and launch angle into incredible results. He’s not hitting more fly balls either, but he’s hitting baseballs harder and in the right direction. His BABIP is elevated, but overall it’s been a joy to watch.

If one of these gentlemen had to appear on this Stock Watch, it would be Zimmerman on the falling stock side. The technical adjustments to his swing have worked, but I still have doubts he’s going to play in 150 games, especially with the Nationals enjoying a sizable NL East lead and a strong backup lurking. Zimmerman didn’t struggle in June, hitting .283, but 11 of his home runs in 2017 came in April. Smoak hit .333 with 10 blasts in June. I can’t buy either surprise All-Star getting better than this, but Smoak seems more likely to sustain his numbers.

Stock rising

Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels: This one seems a bit too obvious, since Trout hasn’t played a big league game since injuring his left thumb and needing surgery after the May 28 game. He’s on track to return this Friday and with no expected limitations. Expect top production as always.

Michael Brantley, OF, Cleveland Indians: It’s always tougher to find risers at this point than fallers. Certainly more of the All-Stars will not sustain performance, almost by definition. The first-half underachievers simply aren’t All-Stars. Brantley is in the middle; he’s hit .304 and stolen eight bases but has underwhelmed in home runs, RBIs and runs scored. As a result, Brantley remains available in more than 20 percent of ESPN standard leagues. I’m cautiously buying low here. Shoulder woes ruined his 2016, but that didn’t appear to be a problem when he hit all five of his home runs in April. He’s still driving the ball, showing plate discipline. Don’t expect a 15-homer second half, but it’s a safe batting average with likely improvement in runs and RBIs.

Justin Turner, 3B, Los Angeles Dodgers: His owners have whined about the lack of power and the disabled list stint but fail to appreciate the .377 batting average. It’s mostly legit. Sure, BABIP has played some role, but Turner has more walks than strikeouts and a ridiculous contact rate. He blasted two home runs Sunday to get to double digits for the season, and by the way, he hit 27 home runs in 2016, and that power was real. Turner is currently the No. 74 option on the ESPN Player Rater. I think he might very well challenge to be a top-20 overall player from here on out.

Yonder Alonso, 1B, Oakland Athletics: There’s been some Eric Thames-type stuff going on the past month in terms of the dropping batting average and “three true outcomes” theme, but as with Thames, who isn’t an All-Star, this is mostly legit. Alonso always had plate discipline. His new uppercut swing has changed his career. While he’ll likely fall short of 40 home runs, for a guy who had never reached double-digits prior, this is still amazing. Don’t run away from this fellow.

Stock falling

Salvador Perez, C, Kansas City Royals: A catcher hitting .290 with 18 home runs at the break -- what’s not to like? Well, most catchers see production tail off as the hot summer progresses, and Perez is no different. During his career, he’s hit 20 points better and slugged 61 points higher before the All-Star break. Last season, he was hitting .283 with 14 home runs for his midsummer trip to San Diego. After that, he hit .201 with eight blasts. This isn’t me being mean. These are numbers that don’t lie, and for a catcher who has averaged a whopping 142 games and 530 at-bats a season over the past four years, we’d all get tired in July and August. At some point in the coming seasons he’s going to break.

Marcell Ozuna, OF, Miami Marlins: The No. 12 hitter on the Player Rater has revived his career after his odd demotion in 2015, but this .316 batting average is way out of line with his past. Ozuna hit .266 last season. Give him credit for raising his walk rate, but little in his numbers truly explains the extra production so far, as he’s already matched his career best in home runs. Ozuna doesn’t don the tools of ignorance – look it up – but his career numbers also drop off quite a bit after the break, from .285 to .243, and he’s slugged .405 after the break. That’s not good, and Ozuna doesn’t steal bases. Collapse – and winter, incidentally – is coming.

Zack Cozart, SS, Cincinnati Reds: This one isn’t really about first- and second-half splits, because Cozart doesn’t really boast attractive numbers in either half for his career. He hit .352 in April and .344 in May, and that got him elected as a reactive All-Star starter, because voters always have a bias for recent events. Cozart hit .250 in June. I can’t believe he’s starting in the All-Star game and Kris Bryant is out golfing.

Aaron Judge, OF, New York Yankees: Uh-oh, now I’m in trouble! This guy is awesome with a capital A, ba-beee! Yes, Judge is indeed awesome, baby. In fact, not to bury any lede, but Judge gets this writer’s vote for the first-half fantasy MVP. Unlike other top-10 options on the Player Rater (e.g., Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Jose Altuve and Paul Goldschmidt), Judge was chosen in the 21st round of ESPN average live drafts. Silly people – my hand is raised – might not have quite bought into the sub-100 plate appearances sample size with the Yankees last year, and we all knew there was power here, but I thought he’d hit around .250. He’s hitting .329. The problem is Judge is more likely to hit .250 than .329 the rest of the way. I think he’ll inch past 50 home runs and might take home overall real-life MVP honors this winter, but even the most optimistic of us have to admit his stock and his batting average can’t stay this high.