We're more than a month into the season, approaching the time when sample sizes begin to matter. Numbers can look funny in small doses. Sometimes that's due to exaggerated hot or cold streaks, but sometimes real changes in a player's tools and skills are happening right in front of us. Among this season's early achievers, which players have most significantly improved one of their core tools with a chance for keeping it up?
10. 3B Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Indians
Tool: Power production
Ramirez has added real long-ball power into the mix this season, adding about 3 mph to his average fly ball velocity. But he's doing it a little differently, and more problematically than his teammate. Ramirez's average launch angle has spiked upward by more than 6 degrees, due in part to a big bump in his popup rate. He's pulling even more of his ground balls than his teammate Francisco Lindor, to the point that it's a concern. Growing into your power is one thing; selling out who you are for more thump is another, and Ramirez may be crossing that line.
Is it real? Yes, at least in the short term. The intermediate to long-term cost may be prohibitive, however. Jose Ramirez should not focus on becoming Jose Lopez.
9. LF Michael Conforto, New York Mets
Tools: Hit, power production
Last year was a wake-up call for Conforto, who was demoted at midseason, only to demolish the Pacific Coast League. He, too, has significantly ramped up his fly ball and line-drive velocity, though his ground ball velocity is down thanks to his adding a bit more uppercut to his stroke.
He has at least temporarily licked two of his 2016 problems, lowering his popup rate and modifying his dead-pull tendency on the ground -- defenses now shift against Conforto at the risk of him going the other way. Conforto is on his way to increasing his power ceiling without compromising his hitting. Now, if we could only get him to face left-handed pitching on a regular basis.
Is it real? Yes, with the caveat that he needs to face lefties to prove that he's an all-around plus hitter.
8. RHP Dylan Bundy, Baltimore Orioles
Tools: Fastball command, overall control
It might seem counterintuitive to single out Bundy in this article, considering that his fastball velocity is actually down quite a bit this season. However, what he has done with his fastball deserves some recognition. Bundy is now arguably the game's most prolific popup inducer, with a popup rate over twice the MLB average. Most pitchers who yield plenty of popups are vulnerable to the long ball, but not Bundy. His average fly ball velocity allowed sits at just over 86 mph, more than two standard deviations lower than the MLB average.
This isn't simply small-sample-size noise; Bundy is improving on a previously demonstrated skill. He has a unique ability to get outs up in the zone with his fastball; with even a slight rebound in his velocity, his strikeout rate should follow suit, allowing Bundy to approach his considerable upside.
Is it real? Yes, though a rebound in velocity would afford him greater margin for error.
7. RHP Chase Anderson, Milwaukee Brewers
Tool: Fastball command
There are sexier names on this list, but the improvements made by Anderson this season are real. The key to being a good contact manager is to generate as much contact as possible on the extremes of the launch-angle spectrum. Anderson has pulled off the neat exacta of ramping up both his popup and ground ball rates at the same time in 2017. On top of that, those grounders have been hit weakly, at an average velocity of less than 75 mph.
Anderson has done these things the old-fashioned way, with improved fastball command. His four-seamer has been the driving force behind the popups, while the two-seamer has been his top grounder-inducing pitch. His average launch angle allowed is down by almost 8 degrees. When the weather warms and the roof opens in Miller Park, his next task will be to keep the fly balls he does allow in the yard.
Is it real? Yes, though his margin for error remains limited.
6. RHP Mike Leake, St. Louis Cardinals
Tools: Cutter, pitchability
Leake has always been great at taking the ball and staying healthy. His strikeout and walk rates have always been well below league average, but a tendency to allow hard contact has limited him to being an innings guy. He has been a different cat this year -- his mix of balls in play hasn't changed much, but the authority of the substantial number of grounders he allows has been cut sharply, by more than 6 mph compared to 2016.
His improvement appears directly related to a change in his pitch mix. Leake is throwing substantially more cutters than in the past, a change that was long overdue because it's one of his better bat-missing offerings. It's producing plenty of weak grounders. His average launch angle allowed is also down by about 4 degrees. His cutter is now a plus pitch, and has driven a rise in his pitchability grade this season.
Is it real? Looks like it. He'll never be a true ace, but 200 average or better innings per annum is quite valuable.
5. RHP Chris Archer, Tampa Bay Rays
Tools: Command/pitchability
In 2016, Archer was a superior bat-misser whose effectiveness was limited by poor contact management performance. Contact management isn't just managing the authority batters make on pitches they make contact with -- it's also about generating the right types of contact: popups and grounders. Archer is still allowing fairly loud authority, but his popup rate is up sharply.
All of this improvement appears to be directly related to a change in pitch selection. Archer is throwing his slider much more often this season, and half of the popups he has induced have been with that pitch. Archer has always had better control than command; his ability to locate his pitches within the zone has been an issue. He now appears to have improved his command and pitchability into the average range. Add that to his plus stuff, and that can edge him into the true ace category.
Is it real? Yes. Guys with such good stuff and a good head on their shoulders (like Archer) often find the right mix of ingredients around this age (28).
4. SS Francisco Lindor, Cleveland Indians
Tool: Power production
Take a Derek Jeter-like skill set and add real power, and what have you got? This guy. Lindor's average fly ball velocity is up by almost 6 mph in the early going, and his average line-drive velocity is up 4 mph. All that, and he's doing it without seeing his strikeout rate go up.
So it's all smooth sailing, right? Not completely. Lindor is getting dangerously close to pulling too many ground balls, which would invite defensive shifts and potentially cut into his batting average. It's a balancing act that a guy with his talent might be able to put his arms around. A Lindor who hits with this kind of power and uses the whole field is a generational talent.
Is it real? Yes, though keep an eye on that tendency to pull grounders.
3. 3B Miguel Sano, Minnesota Twins
Tools: Hit, power production
Sano's profile is a blend of extremes, with his strikeout rate and contact authority at both ends of the spectrum. There are other conflicting factors. On the positive side, he is an extreme fly ball hitter who never pops up, but on the negative, almost all of the grounders he hits are to the pull side. Literally no one hits the ball as hard as Sano; his average fly ball and line drive are both in excess of 100 mph.
While his strikeout rate is extremely high, he is beginning to get those "respect" walks that an elite power threat receives. No one was as free a swinger as Sammy Sosa in his youth, but he became a 100-walks guy thanks to pure fear. Sano's walk rate has almost doubled this season, and his improved plate discipline has allowed him to turn his top-of-the-scale raw power into top power production.
Is it real? Yes. You can improve your hit tool simply by reducing the denominator in batting average by drawing plenty of walks.
2. CF Marcell Ozuna, Miami Marlins
Tools: Hit, power production
I've been trumpeting Ozuna's development for quite a while over at FanGraphs, and it's finally happening. Yes, he's striking out more, but the consistent brute force with which he's making contact appears to be real. His average line-drive (more than 101 mph) and fly ball velocity are both way up, by about 6 mph, taking him up into elite-hitter territory. Even better, he's using the entire field, and not giving anything to the defense. Ozuna is becoming the hitter that Justin Upton was supposed to be, having minimized the mishit balls and poor contact that undermined his performance.
Is it real? You bet it is.
1. LHP Robbie Ray, Arizona Diamondbacks
Tools: Curveball, command
Ray has gone one better than the other pitchers on this list: He hasn't simply enhanced one of his pitches, he has added one to his repertoire. Adding a curve has been a game-changer for Ray, previously known for missing a lot of bats but getting hit hard when he allowed contact. Before you get to the quality of his new pitch, it helps him by limiting the number of fastballs he throws -- most of the hard contact Ray allowed came on the heater.
Ray is running about a 16 percent whiff rate on his curve, upping his overall mark from 11.6 percent in 2016 to more than 13 percent this season. He also has allowed lots of weakly hit grounders with the curve, dropping his average ground ball velocity allowed by 5 mph and his overall average launch angle by almost 5 degrees. Robbie Ray becoming even an average contact manager would make him a star, and this new wrinkle puts him on that track.
Is it real? Yes. Ray was simply too good to continue wrenching his neck watching cannon shots go by.