Why do the Nationals have such a good record? Why do the Royals have such a bad record? There's no single explanation for anything as complicated as this, but I can give you a hint as to what has been most significant -- the Nationals already have outscored the Royals by more than 100 runs. The Nationals have scored half a run a game more than any other team. The Royals have scored half a run a game less than any other team. In terms of just run prevention, the Royals have been better than the Nationals. I guess you could say they've been defined by run prevention on both sides of the game.
It's the easiest thing in the world to identify who has had the best and worst offenses. It's more challenging to think about who has the best and worst offenses. That requires an examination of the future, which, of course, can sometimes feel entirely unknowable. What's going to follow here is my own picture of the baseball landscape. My own leaguewide ranking of the MLB lineups.
Because of the format of a post like this, it can look like very little thought has gone into it. but nothing in here is arbitrary. So far, the Nationals have been the best, and the Royals have been the worst. I'll tell you here I don't think that reflects their exact abilities, but that's why we have the rankings.
1. Some lineups are great because they include a few great players. Other lineups are great because they include a bunch of good players. The Astros don't have a top-heavy feel; rather, they're almost perfectly balanced one through nine, assuming we can all agree Carlos Beltran has more left in the tank than he has shown. On the one hand, it's absurd that the team leader in home runs is Marwin Gonzalez. On the other hand, consider that a testament to this lineup's impressive depth.
2. Chicago Cubs
Based on hype alone, this lineup should be outstanding. The major players presently struggling are Addison Russell, Kyle Schwarber, Willson Contreras and Jason Heyward. In truth, sometimes the hype train has gotten ahead of reality, but nevertheless, this isn't a lineup that gives away a lot of at-bats. Every single player every day is a threat, and if, say, Russell or Contreras were to break out, it wouldn't be hard to justify the Cubs at No. 1.
3. It took some time for me to settle on this order of the Cubs and then the Dodgers. In so many ways, the two are neck and neck, and it's not like the Dodgers lack the Cubs' brand of depth. The sudden, explosive arrival of Cody Bellinger has breathed new life into a unit that wasn't getting enough from first base -- an offensive position. I think this lineup has a little more variability, and a little less upside, relative to Chicago's. It's still a phenomenal lineup.
4. There's no question the Nationals have been amazing. There's no question they've been rewarded for their continuing faith in Ryan Zimmerman. Because of Zimmerman showing up, the Nationals look better than they might have. At the same time, this is now a unit that will be without Adam Eaton. It's also a unit that has yet to face much in the way of upper-tier pitching. Even when they went up against Noah Syndergaard on April 30, that wasn't the true Syndergaard. At some point, the Nationals will face stronger opponents, and at some point, they'll stop hitting so much better with runners in scoring position. Even so, as long as Zimmerman is feeling healthy, this remains a lineup with a terrifying core. Everyone who's supposed to hit has been hitting.
5. It was true last year, and it's true again: No team gets to bat with the platoon advantage more often than the Indians. That's one of the reasons this lineup can feel like it's overachieving. The return of Michael Brantley has provided a jolt, and his steady presence has allowed the Indians to stay afloat even as they've waited for Carlos Santana and Edwin Encarnacion to get going. If and when they do, the Indians should run away from the rest of their division, because, oh, by the way, Francisco Lindor is learning to hit for power, and Jose Ramirez is picking up where he left off. I'm not sure where the weaknesses are on this team.
6. What's wild to me is that the Yankees have so far had the American League's best offense, and they've gotten hardly anything from Gary Sanchez and Greg Bird. Sanchez already has returned from an injury, and Bird will before long. The story, as everyone knows, has been Aaron Judge, and there's compelling reason to believe he really is blossoming into a star. He has been given surprising support by Aaron Hicks, who's thriving with a polished approach. The most extreme performers will come back to earth, because that's how extreme performances go, but Judge has made me a believer. In turn, I assume the Yankees will remain very much a part of the playoff picture.
7. It's hard to believe the Red Sox are tied for having hit the second-fewest home runs in baseball. Xander Bogaerts hasn't gone deep once. Jackie Bradley Jr. has gone deep only once. Bradley has been the biggest drain in the lineup to this point, but here's where there's a difference between what has happened and what ought to happen. Bradley has been a good hitter before. Dustin Pedroia has been a better hitter before. And so on, down the line. When the Red Sox get their footing, they'll score runs like few other teams.
8. Although the Mariners haven't gotten off to the start any of them imagined, you can't fault the lineup. It's a lineup you'd expect to produce, and it's a lineup that should embrace the return of Mitch Haniger before too much more time. A few weaker offensive positions keep this lineup away from the ranks of the elite, but all the Mariners need is for their pitchers to get healthy.
9. So Yadier Molina isn't hitting? Then Kolten Wong will hit. So Dexter Fowler isn't hitting? Then Jedd Gyorko will hit. The Cardinals haven't had everything go the way they wanted, but there's still enough depth in here that there's always someone who could step up when another key performer is going through a slump. With Matt Carpenter hitting like his healthy 2016 self, the Cardinals are still a team that's a thorn in an opponent's side.
10. I've been getting the distinct feeling that Manny Machado is on the verge of a true, massive breakout. It hasn't happened yet, but it seems like it's right around the corner. The Orioles would love for that to be true, because they haven't gotten enough from the other big names. This is still more of a power lineup than it is a complete and excellent lineup, but I guess if you had to choose one strength to have, it would be the ability to knock the ball out of the yard.
11. New York Mets
Is it worth pointing out this team would be fun if it were healthy? The Mets might never be healthy, and it seems as though it will still be some time before the return of Yoenis Cespedes. There are just so few pieces to rely on, which is a shame, because when you put it all together on paper, this lineup is potent. At least for now, they can celebrate Michael Conforto. Don't ever suggest the Mets haven't given you anything.
12. Stop me if you've heard this before: The Angels are being carried by Mike Trout and an under-supportive supporting cast. There's no one else you'd think would be a good hitter. Albert Pujols, at his age, should be a fine hitter. Kole Calhoun and Luis Valbuena are both fine hitters, short of good. And so the lineup altogether is something short of good. But if you have to have just one standout player, you couldn't make a better choice.
13. Only Buster Posey and Brandon Belt have hit even a little. It should come as very little surprise that the Giants easily have the fewest homers in either league. I just can't see them staying like this, not given the team's own recent record. In the past, park effects have made the Giants' offense look bad. I expect an eventual return to the norm. The infield should be sufficiently productive to make up for the holes in the outfield.
14. Working to the Diamondbacks' advantage, of course, is that they've welcomed back A.J. Pollock. When he's going, Pollock is one of the very best players in the league. Yet there's more going on than that. David Peralta is back to playing healthy after injuries spoiled his 2016 season. Chris Owings is tapping into power he used to tease. The Diamondbacks know they won't get much at the plate from Jeff Mathis or Nick Ahmed, but everyone else is a threat, and the team's also good for some underrated baserunning. I don't expect Arizona to drop too far in the standings.
15. Miami Marlins
The Marlins aren't deep. The Marlins have really never been deep. It's a weak bench, and it's a lineup that drops off in an awful hurry from its best players. We're also all still waiting to find out if Marcell Ozuna deserves to be considered one of those best players. So far, so good for 2017. There are few tandems I like better than Giancarlo Stanton and Christian Yelich. If Ozuna or J.T. Realmuto is truly ready to be good, as well, this lineup should be comfortably above average.
16. Texas Rangers
At some point, we will see Adrian Beltre again. At some point, Rougned Odor will go on a hot streak, and maybe, just maybe, Jonathan Lucroy will finally get hot at the same time. The Rangers' offense will be better than it has looked, but there are still too many question marks, and too little certainty. It has been wonderful to see Elvis Andrus figure out how to be more productive at the plate. Between his progress and Joey Gallo's, there's something here. There just might not be enough to support a volatile pitching staff.
17. This isn't hard to figure out. The Blue Jays lost Edwin Encarnacion to another team. They lost Josh Donaldson to injury. They might've lost Jose Bautista to Father Time. So the best hitter on the team to this point has been ... let me check ... Kevin Pillar. Bautista will hit more than this, Donaldson will make an impact when he's back and Devon Travis won't remain below .200. But clearly, this is a lineup that has been depleted. It just doesn't have the feeling it once did.
18. Cincinnati Reds
One of the criticisms the Reds have received during their rebuild process is they haven't acquired enough big upside. There's still reason to believe that's true, but even eyeballing things today, Eugenio Suarez has taken a huge step forward. Adam Duvall and Scott Schebler are both looking like consistently dangerous corner outfielders, and even Zack Cozart has big numbers in all the right places. This isn't a juggernaut of a lineup. What it is is a lineup that's more than just Joey Votto.
19. Minnesota Twins
There are several reasons to want to like this group. Miguel Sano has been great with a 1.071 OPS. Joe Mauer still has the general traits that made him famous, and Brian Dozier just hit 42 home runs in 2016. I just don't see enough consistency in approach. Guys with good eyes at the plate lack power. Guys with good power lack discipline. This lineup is ahead of the pitching staff, but it needs a good Byron Buxton, and we just don't yet have that.
20. Josh Harrison remains tied for the team lead in homers. When I referred to Gonzalez leading the Astros, I intended it as a good thing. This is less of a good thing. There's trouble here, even outside of Starling Marte's suspension. Andrew McCutchen hasn't shown enough to suggest that last year was an aberration, and Gregory Polanco is still waiting to get going in his age-25 season. Without a star somewhere, it's hard to know how the Pirates have hope. I don't think you can count on Harrison to be that star.
21. Detroit Tigers
The names are still there. If you watch a Tigers game, the lineup feels familiar. So far, the group has produced well enough, and that's even without J.D. Martinez. But I see age becoming a bigger factor, where there's less and less hitting to offset the baserunning that has been a negative for a number of years in a row. I can see how you might think I'm underrating the Tigers. If I'm not, they're going to have a tricky five months.
22. I didn't expect to say this, but there are parallels between the A's lineup and the Orioles'. You can see long stretches of ugly plate appearances, punctuated by just enough home runs to keep things acceptable. The Orioles have more in the way of proven power, while the A's lean heavily on Khris Davis. But Davis does get support from Ryon Healy, and Yonder Alonso now is showing early signs of being another fly-ball-hitting breakout. I need to see more from Alonso before I believe in him, but he at least gives this lineup additional upside.
23. Tampa Bay Rays
You can imagine just about every hitter in here being OK, yet it's hard to see any of them being particularly great. So you can end up in places where the best hitter on the team might be Logan Morrison or Corey Dickerson. I don't find this to be a bad offense, and given enough good luck with health, there's flexibility and walks and pop and everything. I just like a lineup with a standout. I don't think I see one.
24. I wouldn't consider myself down on the Brewers. I like where they are and I like what they've done, and I'm all aboard the Eric Thames bandwagon. I've also been the leader of the Keon Broxton bandwagon, and there's still Ryan Braun in there hitting every day. I think it's just -- well, let me put it this way -- Brewers catchers are second in baseball in OPS. The Brewers catchers have been Jett Bandy and Manny Pina. There's going to be a slowing of things.
25. Colorado Rockies
Here's where we can get into some trouble, because the Rockies, as an entity, are tough to evaluate. Their hitters benefit from the home environment, of course, but they also suffer away from home, more than their opponents do. So I'm not sure we have a great handle on how to value Colorado's bats. It should be obvious they're going to score. I just see a few too many holes. They won't get anything behind the plate. Carlos Gonzalez is stuck in a rut, Trevor Story might've gone too extreme with his whiffs and fly balls, and DJ LeMahieu succeeded in the past with a highly unusual approach. I can see why someone would like this lineup. I don't think it's one of the better lineups.
26. How long have people been waiting for Maikel Franco? How much patience will people have for J.P. Crawford? There's no reason to give up on either of them, but while they've fought through ups and downs, it's Aaron Altherr who has re-emerged. It sure looks as if Altherr, who had wrist surgery in 2016, should be thought of as part of the core. It's a positive. Take it.
27. Atlanta Braves
Without question, Freddie Freeman has become one of the best hitters in the game. He's Atlanta's version of Votto. But I like Votto's present support a little better, even despite Matt Kemp's four-digit OPS. I just don't see enough here to intrigue me, and although a sudden surge by Dansby Swanson could improve the whole picture, I think the Braves are in a little worse shape than anticipated. This rebuild isn't yet close to complete.
28. The Royals, in April, had what was probably the worst offensive month in franchise history. The good news is that Jorge Soler is back, and after a month like that, there's nowhere to go but up. Alex Gordon looks older every day, and Mike Moustakas can't hit for enough power to carry this whole lineup by himself. At its best, the Royals lineup was more annoying than great. They aren't close to their best these days.
29. San Diego Padres
As I write this, Wil Myers is the only Padre who has been an above-average hitter. I'm not sure why that wouldn't continue to be true. Oh, sure, someone could fluke into a decent OPS just by chance alone, but this is mostly a lineup of projects. I like a handful of those projects. I'm deeply intrigued by Ryan Schimpf. But Myers is the one guarantee, and even he isn't completely stable.
30. Maybe this seems unfair. The Padres have Myers, but the White Sox have Jose Abreu. Yet the White Sox also have Avisail Garcia. The question is: Do you really believe in Avisail Garcia? I don't, not yet. Nor am I wild about Todd Frazier. I don't love Tim Anderson's approach, and things only get thinner after him. I'm not saying the White Sox are doomed to have baseball's for-sure worst offense. The upside is just ever so limited. The pitching. Keep your focus on the pitching. That's the star of the rebuilding show.