It has been an uneven first month-plus of baseball, with myriad injuries, the Red Sox-Orioles debacle and the game's drift toward three-true-outcome ennui. If you're a glass-half-empty type, you can focus on that. But if you're more glass-half-full, you might stay focused on an exciting new star -- such as Aaron Judge.
WIth his league-leading 13 home runs, the Yankees' gargantuan right fielder has captivated fans who had grown accustomed to an aging, expensive nucleus in recent years. Now Judge, Gary Sanchez and others conjure up memories of the last time the Yanks were truly great, in their late-1990s and early-2000s dynasty, thanks in large part to homegrown stars such as Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera and Jorge Posada.
To measure up to that standard of greatness, where did the 6-foot-7, 280-pound Judge come from? How did he become this dominant at the plate? And most important, can he make it stick?
Judge, 25, was the 32nd overall selection in the 2013 draft, a year in which the Yanks held multiple first-round selections. His massive stature and plus-plus raw power made him stand out, but his numbers in three seasons at Fresno State told a different story. He struck out, but not at an alarming rate (averaging 46 K's in 234 plate appearances per year, just under 20 percent). But he hit a total of only six homers in his first two seasons, though he did break through for 12 in his draft year. He quietly stole 36 bags in 41 attempts in his college career.
While many armchair quarterbacks look back at Judge as an all-or-nothing slugger in college, he was much the opposite. He was a hit-before-power prospect who was figuring out how to unlock his prodigious strength at the plate.
Judge didn't take the typical freight-train route through the minors that most elite college draftees travel. Each season, I compile a list of top minor league batting prospects based on production relative to league and level, adjusted for age, with players qualifying by reaching certain combinations of benchmarks. Judge qualified for my list in each of his minor league seasons, but only at Nos. 58, 150 and 128, respectively.
The rankings on my list aren't the be-all and end-all; it's primarily a follow list. Getting on my radar statistically then allows me to refine my analysis via traditional scouting methods.
Judge didn't rank higher because he still hadn't tapped into his raw power fully. His full-season slugging percentage was never above .500 in any of his minor league campaigns. Except for when he struggled in his first crack at Triple-A, however, he continued to hit for solid averages. He was still a hit-before-power guy with massive, unrealized power.
Just as he struggled in that initial tour of Triple-A, he did again in his first MLB trial last summer. How badly? How does a 44.2 percent strikeout rate grab you? When you strike out that much, it puts an impossible strain on your ability to make contact.
That said, there were positives. His walk rate of 9.5 percent would have rated well among American League regulars. And he hit the ball exceedingly hard when he did hit it. Those of you who have read some of my previous articles might be familiar with the term "Adjusted Contact Score." It grades out a hitter's contact quality by assigning a likely outcome to each batted ball based on MLB averages for that type of ball in play and its exit speed/launch angle "bucket," and then scaling the projected production to an average of 100.
Judge's Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score was a jaw-dropping 257, which would have ranked fifth among AL regulars behind Pedro Alvarez (325), Khris Davis (288), Mark Trumbo (283) and Nelson Cruz (278). Cruz led the AL in average fly ball velocity at 97.5 mph; in a small sample, Judge's average was right behind at 97.2 mph.
Although Judge didn't hit many line drives -- just 14 percent of the time -- he scalded the balls he hit. His Adjusted Liner Contact Score was 170; Cruz led AL regulars with a 136 mark. Cruz also led AL regulars with average liner velocity of 100.5 mph, but Judge was way, way ahead of him at an amazing 107.7 mph.
On all types of balls in play combined, Judge compiled an Adjusted Contact Score of 182, so despite his low liner rate, he posted an Adjusted Contact Score that would have ranked third in the AL behind Miguel Cabrera (200) and J.D. Martinez (192). His average velocity on all balls in play was 95.1 mph; his average launch angle, an extremely high 20.6 degrees. The latter would have led all MLB regulars despite a total absence of infield popups.
Fast-forward to 2017. Judge's strikeout rate is down significantly, into the mid-20s. His walk rate is up sharply from an already strong base as fear spreads among the pitching community. He's still hitting a ton of fly balls, but has dropped from what would have been the highest rate among AL regulars in 2016 to the 82nd percentile in 2017.
But the really big deal is how he's making contact with authority. His rate of contact authority has gone from great to almost unprecedented. His Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score is an otherworldly 442, and his average fly ball velocity is even higher this time around at 98.8 mph. Almost 40 percent of his fly balls have been hit harder than 105 mph. That's scary-good as feats of strength go.
He's hitting more liners, too, but his average velocity on them is "down" -- falling into the upper tier of normal good MLB player range at 99.8 mph. But over 30 percent of them have been hit harder than 110 mph.
Overall, his Adjusted Contact Score on all balls in play is a ridiculous 282. He has earned just about every bit of his 237 wRC+ figure; he "should have" a still-great 229 mark. His average velocity on all balls in play is almost exactly at his 2016 level at 94.9 mph, but his average launch angle is dramatically lower, at 12.4 degrees.
How did we get here? All of the video I have watched of Judge prior to 2017 featured a similar flaw, one that he has erased this year. His front side was prone to leaking forward on his swing, breaking the kinetic chain and robbing him of the full force that his powerful lower half can provide on contact. He was strong enough to still hit for distance when he kept his hands back in the upper minors, but last year at the major league level, he had no chance.
Now there's a noticeable difference, which first showed up in spring training. Judge now loads his front half significantly, getting all of his weight back before moving forward. That's a whole lot of mass in motion. This generates more force as he's coming forward, but by itself that doesn't guarantee results. A hitter still needs to be able to recognize pitch type and location, and stop the train if need be -- easier said than done. The hands need to stay back until the last instant before the swing starts. Judge is doing that.
It's very rare to see a hitter with these physical attributes. It's just as rare to see one who can make these kinds of adjustments this quickly at the major league level. It takes a perfect storm of athleticism, visual acuity and mental resilience to do so.
Are there any limiting factors to Judge's breakout? He pulls a lot of his grounders, for one. David Ortiz was living proof that no matter how hard you hit it on the ground, you can bat .100 on them if the defense knows where they're going. If Judge can't lick this issue, it's not fatal to his productivity at the plate, but it will prevent him for hitting around .300, absent a huge walk total.
I think Judge can lick even that problem, though. He hits homers from line to line, and compared to the huge adjustments that he has already made, staying back and using the entire field on the ground isn't all that difficult.
Aaron Judge isn't going to slug over .700 forever. He's still a big man with big holes in his swing, and opposing pitchers are wily enough to attack them, forcing further adjustments. For a cautionary comparison, Giancarlo Stanton is the player Judge is most comparable to. Stanton has slipped from his peak, thanks to issues with consistent contact and excessive pulling that he has been slow to address. Still, it's a pleasure to watch an elite athlete realize just how good he can be and make himself this great. Enjoy the show.