Every Selection Sunday, our overworked and underpaid staff hurriedly hands each of the blathering, bloviating gasbags on the "Bracketology" show a blank bracket that has just been revealed to us and to you, the masses.
With no time to deliberate or consider factors that may affect a prediction, we, the oversized ego-toting "talking heads" are asked ... no, wait ... commanded under penalty of termination to fill out the bracket (in pen) in five minutes or less. That way, our thoughtless picks made while holding our eyelids open with toothpicks can be put onto television graphics and put out to you, the viewing public.
While we, the "talent," have been down on bended knee for decades to beseech our bosses for a little bit more time to contemplate our picks, we are viewed as a group of Oliver Twists begging for more gruel from the tyrant Mr. Bumble. Of course, any resemblance of the ESPN cafeteria to the orphanage dining facility is purely coincidental. The answer we get is less delicately delivered than Mr. Bumble's relatively polite denial to Oliver.
The draconian working conditions of Championship Week and Selection Sunday ... wait, "draconian" is a little strong. The byzantine working conditions can sometimes lead to less-than-ideal decisions on the part of the "talent" -- which led my bosses to decree that I write this article annually to reflect more thoughtful selections for your benefit, and to punish me for daring to ask for a reasonable accommodation.
This carefully executed wisdom that is put together between midnight and roosters crowing after Selection Sunday provides you, a member of the masses, the tools and information you need to execute a winning bracket in whatever bracket challenge you choose to enter.
One may take some or all of these suggestions, or go all George Costanza on me and do the opposite of what I do. Your choice. But you will have the suggested picks from the most powerful and influential basketball brain on planet Earth. As always, you're welcome.
MIDWEST | WEST | SOUTH | EAST | FINAL FOUR
MIDWEST REGION
First round
Rece Davis, Jay Bilas and Seth Greenberg break down why Purdue has a favorable draw in the Midwest Region.
No. 1 PURDUE vs. No. 16 MONTANA STATE
PURDUE BOILERMAKERS: Outside of UConn, nobody has been better than Purdue this season, and the Boilermakers have a weapon that no other team can boast: Zach Edey, the reigning national player of the year and the most efficient and impactful player in the country. Edey is the only player in the country who forces opposing teams to change their entire game plans to limit him. If you don't limit Edey, he will torch you by scoring or passing out of a double-team. But, Purdue is more than just Edey. Point guard Braeden Smith has matured into a consistent high-level performer who is unafraid and ultracompetitive. Smith is an excellent shooter and sets the table with tenacious play on both ends. The difference between this year's Purdue and last year's first-round flameout crew is overall experience and newly injected athleticism. Smith, Fletcher Loyer, Mason Gillis and Lance Jones are all capable shooters surrounding Edey, able to take advantage of the chances that defenses take to limit the trophy-winning big man. Jones is the true difference-maker. The Southern Illinois transfer provides Purdue with a dynamic athletic wing who can get out in transition and defend the most athletic opposing guard. Purdue has all of the pieces and the overall profile of a champion. A key for Purdue and a key to beating Purdue? The free throw line. Purdue shoots a ton of foul shots and does not put opponents on the free throw line. The biggest hurdle the Boilermakers face is not any opponent. Rather, it is a mental one. Can Purdue set down the baggage it may be carrying from last year's catastrophic first-round loss to Fairleigh Dickinson and play to win instead of playing not to lose? That is the unanswerable question. If Purdue gets through the first weekend, the Boilermakers are a solid bet to reach Phoenix and remain a solid bet when they get there.
X factor: Purdue's ability to handle chaotic, turnover-forcing full-court pressure. When pressed, Purdue can be vulnerable. But, over the course of 40 minutes when playing with a free mind, Purdue can wear teams down and foul them out. Purdue will not run away from outstanding teams with knockout punch runs. Instead, Purdue methodically blows teams out.
Upset potential: Until Purdue exorcises the demons from the past three NCAA tournaments, when the Boilermakers lost to double-digit seeds, there will be some doubt. But, once past the first weekend, Purdue should be able to play with a free mind and go for it.
MONTANA STATE BOBCATS: The Big Sky champions enter the NCAA tournament with a 17-17 record but got on a four-game heater to end the season. Montana State is rated in the bottom half of Division I in offensive and defensive efficiency and did not win a game against any team rated in the KenPom.com top 100. But, as that is stated, Fairleigh Dickinson was rated much lower last season and bounced Purdue out in the first round. The Bobcats are led by top shooter Robert Ford, the Idaho State transfer who has hit 67 3-point field goals on the season and leads the Bobcats in scoring, rebounding, free throw attempts and steals.
X factor: Brandon Walker, a 6-7 sophomore transfer from UT Arlington and Montana State's second-leading scorer in Big Sky games, averages 14 points on 57% shooting.
Upset potential: Low. Montana State was 6-8 in its last 14 games and ranks in the bottom third of Division I in offensive efficiency.
WINNER: Purdue. The Boilermakers have some demons to shed, and they will be shed here.
No. 8 UTAH STATE vs. No. 9 TCU
UTAH STATE AGGIES: The Aggies won the outright Mountain West regular-season title for the first time. Danny Sprinkle has done a magnificent job of assembling a roster out of nothing and then coaching it up. Utah State is led by Great Osobor, one of the best names and most versatile players in college basketball. Osobor is a 6-8, 255-pound small forward who can play inside and out and shows great versatility. Osobor leads the Aggies in scoring, rebounding, offensive rebounding and blocks, while ranking second in steals. He is a physical finisher, playmaker and body-seeking scorer who can carry a team. Osobor transferred to Utah State from Montana State when Sprinkle got the Aggie head-coaching job.
X factor: Darius Brown II. Brown is the point guard, leading the team in assists and steals, and has a 3-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. Brown is also the team's best 3-point threat. Brown put up 25 points against San Diego State. Utah State is not a great 3-point shooting team, but Brown can shoot it.
Upset potential: Medium. A playmaker and matchup nightmare in Osobor can cause problems for anyone. Utah State didn't play any big shots in the nonconference but did very well in MWC play. The lack of 3-point shooting is concerning for upsets, but Utah State can play.
TCU HORNED FROGS: The Horned Frogs have lost five of their past eight games heading into the NCAA tournament, including to UCF and Baylor at home, then a loss to Houston when TCU mustered only 45 total points. The Frogs tend to turn over the ball too much and rank in the bottom third of Division I in ball security. Yet TCU plays fast and does a solid job on the defensive end, ranking among the top 25 in the nation in forcing turnovers. TCU forces almost 15 turnovers per game. Emanuel Miller, a 6-foot-7 wing who leads the team in scoring and rebounding, paces TCU. Jameer Nelson Jr. leads the team in assists and steals.
X factor: Trevian Tennyson. The 6-3 senior leads TCU with 67 made 3-pointers and shoots almost 42% from deep.
Upset potential: Medium. TCU did not play a difficult nonconference schedule but handled the tough Big 12 by going 9-9. I don't expect the Frogs to struggle, but I don't expect them to play in the second weekend.
WINNER: Utah State. The Horned Frogs can make things chaotic, but Utah State is a very good team. Purdue would rather play Utah State, and this game is a toss-up. Go with Great, and don't worry ... unless you can't bring yourself to trust Purdue. I trust the Boilermakers until the second weekend.
No. 5 GONZAGA vs. No. 12 McNEESE
GONZAGA BULLDOGS: The Zags had a bad break when guard Steele Venters went down early with a season-ending injury. Gonzaga scuffled a bit early, but continued to get better throughout the season. The Zags did get a win over Kentucky in Rupp and finished 25-7. Wyoming transfer Graham Ike has been the interior scorer, hitting 61% of his 2-point field goals, while Ryan Nembhard and Nolan Hickman lead the Zags' perimeter attack. Nembhard leads Gonzaga in assists, while Hickman leads in 3-point shooting. Gonzaga can score efficiently, but this is not a Final Four defensive team nor a Final Four rebounding team.
X factor: Anton Watson. One of the best defenders in the country, when Watson is attacking on offense, Gonzaga is much better. Watson exploded for 32 points against UCLA on 14-of-15 shooting.
Upset potential: Medium. Gonzaga is very good but not as powerful as in the past several years. The Zags have made eight consecutive Sweet 16s, twice as many as any team in the country. That remarkable streak could very well continue but could very easily end this year.
McNEESE COWBOYS: The Southland Conference champions have won 30 games against only three losses under former VCU and LSU coach Will Wade. Don't be fooled by the small conference feel, McNeese has major conference talent and plays a relentless style that has beaten VCU, UAB and Michigan this season. McNeese forces more than 16 turnovers per game (eighth in the nation) and racks up more than 10 steals per game (third in the nation) by pressing, getting into you defensively and pursuing the ball. Five Cowboys have 30 or more steals on the season, led by Wells with 95. Guard Shahada Wells leads the Cowboys with almost nine steals per game, second in the country, and also leads the team in scoring, assists and free throw attempts. Wells played for Jamie Dixon at TCU and was All-Sun Belt at UT Arlington before coming to McNeese. McNeese averages more than 80 points per game, more than 15 assists per game, and leads the nation in scoring margin. McNeese is legit.
X factor: DJ Richards and Christian Shumate. Richards was on the All-Freshman team at UTSA and leads McNeese with 80 3-point field goals. The 6-6 Shumate leads McNeese in rebounding and offensive rebounding, while ranking second to Wells in scoring and free-throw attempts.
Upset potential: High. McNeese can make a bigger name sweat. You had better value the ball and protect it, or McNeese will take it from you.
WINNER: Gonzaga. This is a difficult game for Gonzaga, but eight straight Sweet 16s for the Zags make me believe that coach Mark Few will figure out how to navigate the Bayou Bandits' pressure.
No. 4 KANSAS vs. No. 13 SAMFORD
KANSAS JAYHAWKS: Coach Bill Self has had arguably the best starting lineup in the country this season, but the bench, while it has had good moments, has been slow to develop and consistently unreliable. Few duos have been as productive and consistent as Hunter Dickinson and Kevin McCullar. Dickinson is the top rebounder in the Big 12, while McCullar has been the league's top scorer. McCullar is a versatile defender and the best two-way player in the country. Dajuan Harris is also a great defender and a low-turnover, high-assist point guard. Harris can make open shots but is not an aggressive scorer. K.J. Adams is one of the nation's most explosive players around the basket, a lob threat and short-roll playmaker. Kansas has everything except depth and deadeye shooting, as the Jayhawks make only five 3s per game. But Kansas attacks the paint and is one of the best 2-point shooting teams in the country.
X factor: Johnny Furphy. Recruited as a slasher, Furphy has been the Jayhawks' best shooter in Big 12 play and is a surprisingly effective rebounder. When Furphy plays well, Kansas plays well. But the Aussie is just a freshman and has not played quite as well away from Allen Fieldhouse.
Upset potential: Mild, but be careful. Kansas is not as powerful as in past seasons because of a lack of consistent depth. While the Jayhawks should not be crazy vulnerable to an upset, it would not be a shock to see Kansas sent home earlier than the seed suggests. Kansas has had health issues with McCullar (knee) and Dickinson (shoulder). If either or both are compromised, Kansas may not be around long.
SAMFORD BULLDOGS: The Southern Conference champion enters the NCAA tournament at 29-5 and as one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the country. Samford hits 10 3s per game at a 39% clip from deep, good enough for seventh in the country in accuracy from deep. It is not just from one or two players. Seven different Bulldogs have hit 24 or more 3-point bombs, led by Rylan Jones with 53 and Jaden Campbell with 51. Campbell is seventh in the nation in 3-point field goal percentage at 48% from behind the arc. Achor Achor is the top scorer, averaging 26.5 points over his past two games. Achor, a 6-9 junior college transfer from Australia, leads the team in scoring, rebounding, blocks, free throw attempts and field goal percentage. Achor averages over 16 points, 6 rebounds and almost 2 blocks, and shoots over 60% from the floor. Samford plays "Bucky Ball," in honor of head coach Bucky McMillan. He is a former high school coach who had never coached on the college level, as an assistant or head coach. In McMillan's fourth season in Birmingham, Samford will press, shoot without fear, and press again. The Bulldogs play fast and force a turnover on 21% of opponents' possessions, ranking among the top 15 in the nation. But where opponents can get Samford is on the glass.
X factor: Jaden Campbell. The 6-5 wing is an outstanding shooter and can hit four or five 3s in a game if left open in transition. If Campbell makes shots, Samford can be a problem.
Upset potential: Low. The Bulldogs did not play a stellar schedule, playing only two teams ranked in the top 100 of the KenPom.com ratings. Samford lost both by double digits. But if you cough the ball up against the Bulldogs, they can make things difficult.
WINNER: Kansas. Samford can shoot it, and Achor Achor is a problem. But, healthy or not, the Jayhawks should have enough to get past this game. After this one, things are up in the air.
No. 6 SOUTH CAROLINA vs. No. 11 OREGON
OREGON DUCKS: Oregon has pulled a bid out of nowhere, beating both Arizona and Colorado to win the Pac-12 tournament. Rated outside of the top 50 in offense and defense for most of the season, the Ducks continued to get better as the season came to a close. Big man N'Faly Dante is back healthy and provides low-post scoring and efficient finishing, as well as capable rebounding and rim protection. Dante played just 20 games for Oregon following November surgery, but he makes the Ducks a second-weekend contender. Guards Jackson Shelstad and Jermaine Couisnard are both legit 3-point threats, and Couisnard is the best defender. Couisnard is physical and tough, Shelstad is quick and athletic.
X factor: Shelstad. The freshman is a baller, but will he play like a freshman in the tournament?
Upset potential: Medium.
SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS: If UConn's Danny Hurley doesn't win it, Lamont Paris should be the national coach of the year. This is a tough team that resembles a Bo Ryan Wisconsin team that doesn't turn it over much, doesn't foul much and knows how to play. What is odd is that the polls and standings love South Carolina, but the analytics do not. South Carolina is rated outside the top 40 in both offensive and defensive efficiency and outside of the top 40 overall by KenPom.com. With 25 regular-season wins, including wins against Mississippi State, Kentucky, Tennessee, Texas A&M and Florida, South Carolina has proved to be legit. The top scorers are Meechie Johnson, the Ohio State transfer and top 3-point shooter who has nine regular-season games with 20 or more points, and B.J. Mack, the versatile 6-8 swingman who hit 45 3s before the SEC tournament. South Carolina is a tempo-control, low-turnover, tough team.
X factor: Collin Murray-Boyles. The 6-7 freshman is the leading rebounder and offensive rebounder and can isolate defenders with back-downs. Murray-Boyles averages more than 10 points and almost six rebounds and had 31 points against Vanderbilt.
Upset potential: Medium. South Carolina plays at a slower tempo, so it can hang with better teams. But lesser teams can stay in it against the Gamecocks, too.
WINNER: Oregon. Coach Dana Altman has never lost a first-round game since he showed up in Eugene. South Carolina is going to be tough, but a healthy Dante will be the difference.
No. 3 CREIGHTON vs. No. 14 AKRON
CREIGHTON BLUEJAYS: The Bluejays' profile is very interesting. One of the few teams ranked in the top 25 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, Creighton is just one of eight nationally. Last season's Elite Eight team was better defensively, but this season's Bluejays are still very good on the defensive end. This year's Bluejays score more easily, led by the most productive and versatile player in the Big East, Baylor Scheierman. A 6-foot-7 lefty, Scheirman is a terrific deep shooter, high-level rebounder and creative passer. Utah State transfer Steven Ashworth is second to Scheierman in 3-point field goals made and a very good cutter. Trey Alexander is a versatile defender and another 3-point threat. With the floor spread with so many capable shooters, Creighton also puts pressure on the rim, hitting over 60% from 2-point range.
X factor: Ryan Kalkbrenner. The Bluejay big man is a rim protector and operates very well in pick-and-rolls as a lob threat. Kalkbrenner leads Creighton in blocked shots, offensive rebounding and is among the nation's leaders in 2-point field goal percentage at over 71%.
Upset potential: Medium. Almost any team can get bounced with a bad shooting night, but Creighton is solid at both ends of the floor. Still, early losses to Colorado State and UNLV indicate it is possible to knock off the Bluejays.
AKRON ZIPS: The MAC champion features the best player in the league and the nation's leading rebounder in Enrique Freeman, who averages 19 points and 13 rebounds, including almost four offensive boards per game. Freeman has averaged a double-double for three straight seasons. Freeman and Greg Tribble are elite defenders for coach John Groce. The Zips might seem like they backed into this bid, but it was earned.
X factor: Ali Ali. The former MAC Newcomer of the Year transferred to Butler, then came back to Akron. Can the guard win that award again? Ali played for Akron and was the leading scorer in 2021-22, the last time Akron played in the NCAA tournament.
Upset potential: Low.
WINNER: Creighton. Depth is an issue for the Bluejays, and Freeman is tough on the glass. But, Creighton is too good on offense to drop this game.
No. 7 TEXAS vs. 10 COLORADO STATE
TEXAS LONGHORNS: The Longhorns have an inside-outside combo that is pretty powerful in Max Abmas and Dylan Disu. Abmas is one of college basketball's all-time scorers, especially from his time at Oral Roberts. Abmas can shoot from anywhere and has no fear of any shot. Disu has added a 3-point shot to his game and has had an outstanding season. Abmas leads Texas in scoring and 3-point shooting, while Disu is just behind. He's the Longhorns' second-leading 3-point shooter, hitting over 51% from deep. Dillon Mitchell is the top rebounder and best and most explosive athlete. Texas has had some issues defending the 3-point line and keeping opponents off of the glass, but this is a capable team.
X factor: Tyrese Hunter. The Iowa State transfer is capable of big nights, like 30 points against Oklahoma and 21 points and the full-court game winner against Baylor. But he also has 11 single-digit scoring games, including a bagel against Iowa State.
Upset potential: Medium. Texas is gettable.
COLORADO STATE RAMS: The Rams have beaten Creighton and Colorado before Mountain West play and have one of the best point guards in the country in Isaiah Stevens, Stevens averages almost 17 points per game and has dished out seven assists per game, ranking third in the nation in total assists. The 6-0 senior shoots almost 50% from the floor, 46% from deep and over 83% from the line. When you have a point guard like Stevens, you have a chance against almost anyone. But Colorado State is more than Stevens, as four players average double-figure scoring.
X factor: Joel Scott. The 6-7 senior leads the Rams in rebounding, offensive rebounding and blocked shots. Scott played his first four years at Black Hills State in Division II, where he was a finalist for the Bevo Francis Award.
Upset potential: High. With Stevens running the point, Colorado State is dangerous to any big shot out there.
WINNER: Colorado State. Texas is the better team, but this is a good upset pick, whether Virginia or Colorado State wins in the First Four. I am going with Isaiah Stevens and the Rams, but mostly because the winner will not get by Tennessee.
No. 2 TENNESSEE vs. No. 15 SAINT PETER'S
TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS: Every mild criticism of Tennessee basketball over the years under coach Rick Barnes, who has been wildly successful, does not apply to this season's Vols. Tennessee can score and is not subject to the occasional lulls that have tripped up the Vols in past seasons. The difference is Dalton Knecht, a transfer from Northern Colorado. Knecht is the leading scorer in the SEC and the Roy Hobbs of college basketball. He was a nobody from nowhere, and now he is the most dangerous scorer in the country, going for 30-plus routinely in SEC play. When Tennessee needs a bucket, Knecht gets it. Yet Tennessee is far more than Knecht. Barnes still has the best and most physical defense this side of Houston. And there is quality leadership from Santiago Vescovi and Josiah-Jordan James, both fifth-year Vols who can run huddles and mentor the team alongside the coaching staff. Vescovi is not the primary scoring option, but he's still dangerous with his movement and shot fakes, and James doesn't need the ball to affect the game with his defense and rebounding. A key has been the development of Jonas Aidoo, who has been productive on offense, provides a presence on both ends and has been excellent in SEC play. Tennessee may get beat, but it won't get stuck in long scoring droughts. If you take away Knecht, the rest of the Vols can still beat you.
X factor: Aidoo and Jahmai Mashack. Aidoo is one of the most improved players in the country and has been consistent as a defender, offensive rebounder and scorer. He is now a legit weapon for Tennessee. Mashack is one of the best defenders in the country and makes winning plays. He doesn't need a play called for him, yet he busts his tail on every possession and lifts the Vols when he is on the floor. He is the defensive back that a quarterback will not throw toward. Every coach wants Mashack on his team.
Upset potential: Low. The Vols are so good defensively and so consistent on that end that it will be difficult for any upstart to trip them up in the first weekend. Since November, Tennessee has been stellar.
SAINT PETER'S PEACOCKS: The MAAC champion is 19-13 and has struggled with turnovers and making shots consistently all season. However, the Peacocks were the best defensive team in the MAAC in league play. Corey Washington carried the load offensively during the regular season, leading the team in scoring and rebounding. The first-team All-MAAC performer had 24 points, 9 rebounds and 4 blocks in the MAAC title game against Fairfield.
X factor: Latrell Reid. The MAAC Defensive Player of the Year will have to be a stopper for Saint Peter's to have a chance in the NCAA tournament.
Upset potential: Low.
WINNER: Tennessee. Look, the Vols sucked against Mississippi State in the SEC tournament quarterfinals. I don't think Barnes will let that poor performance linger. Better that it happened in Nashville than in the NCAA tournament.
Second round
No. 1 PURDUE vs. No. 8 UTAH STATE
Winner: Purdue. Zach Edey will be too much for the Aggies, or for the Frogs (although pressing will hurt Purdue).
No. 4 KANSAS vs. No. 5 GONZAGA
Winner: Gonzaga. If Kansas is healthy, the Jayhawks win. But with both McCullar and Dickinson out for the Big 12 tournament, how can you rely upon picking Kansas? This is a tough one, but neither team gets past Purdue.
No. 3 CREIGHTON vs. No. 11 OREGON
Winner: Creighton. The Ducks were not the same team earlier in the season. I like the Bluejays' offense in this one.
No. 2 TENNESSEE vs. No. 10 COLORADO STATE
Winner: Tennessee. Whether Texas, Virginia or Colorado State gets to the Vols, I like the Vols to the Sweet 16 for the second straight season.
Sweet 16
No. 1 PURDUE vs. No. 5 GONZAGA
Winner: Purdue. These two teams played in Maui, and Gonzaga hung tough. But Purdue has Edey and the Purdue guards are better than they get credit for.
No. 2 TENNESSEE vs. No. 3 CREIGHTON
Winner: Tennessee. The Vols are deeper and have the size and toughness to defend Creighton's intricate offense.
Elite Eight
No. 1 PURDUE vs. No. 2 TENNESSEE
Winner: Purdue. These two teams played in Maui, and Purdue was difficult for the Vols to match up with. The only caveat: Knecht is much better now. Still, I like Purdue to win.
WEST REGION
First round
Jay Bilas, Jay Williams and Seth Greenberg preview No. 1 seed UNC's path in the West Region of men's NCAA tournament.
No. 1 NORTH CAROLINA vs. 16 HOWARD
NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS: I cannot recall a season when Carolina's defense was the lead story. Coach Hubert Davis has preached defense, impacting the ball, challenging shots and making catches difficult. And the Carolina defense is physical and gritty. The Tar Heels can still score, rebound and get to the free throw line, but the defensive profile is what makes Carolina a contender. Without sustained defensive effort, North Carolina is a good team, but not great. With its best effort on the defensive end, Carolina is a contender. No guard in the country has been better than RJ Davis, who has had a spectacular first-team All-America season. Nobody plays harder, and nobody has been as consistently excellent, except perhaps Purdue's Zach Edey. Armando Bacot is the only player in the ACC averaging a double-double, and when Carolina needs a bucket, it can play through him. Stanford transfer Harrison Ingram has been a revelation and far better in Carolina blue than Cardinal red. Ingram has been the best rebounder in ACC play, and he and Bacot have both averaged a double-double in ACC games. Ingram can knock in perimeter shots and back you down in post isolations. He has been a matchup problem for every opponent. Carolina does not have any real perimeter shooting aside from Davis, Ingram and Notre Dame transfer Cormac Ryan. If Carolina does not defend and rebound, the offense cannot carry the Heels. But Carolina is older and experienced. This team should be focused when the lights are brightest.
X factor: Elliot Cadeau, the freshman point guard, is the speed of the team. He does not shoot it from deep, but he can motor in transition and get into the lane. You play him as a driver and he drives it on you anyway, and does it with a low error rate. When he plays well, Carolina is that much tougher.
Upset potential: Fairly low, but not a given to get past early challenges. Carolina is a contender but not on the same tier as Purdue, UConn, Houston, Arizona and Tennessee. Late in the season, the Tar Heels did not close out games particularly well. However, when in the biggest games, Carolina brings it. As long as North Carolina is fully engaged defensively, the upset probability is low.
HOWARD BISON: The MEAC champion has a defense rated in the bottom 10% of Division I and a record of 17-16 but played Georgia Tech to a one-possession loss and Cincinnati to an overtime loss. The Bison are vulnerable to turnovers, but they crash the glass and get to the foul line. Former Harvard and Ohio State wing Seth Towns and guard Bryce Harris lead the way, with Towns averaging 14 points and six rebounds and Harris leading the team with almost 17 points and eight rebounds.
X factor: Marcus Dockery. The Maryland transfer is the top perimeter shooting threat, leading Howard with 91 3-point field goals on the season.
Upset potential: Low. But with major conference transfers, Howard can make you nervous.
WINNER: North Carolina. The Heels have been playing with an edge, which they did not have against NC State. I think they will be back.
No. 8 MISSISSIPPI STATE vs. No. 9 MICHIGAN STATE
MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS: Coach Chris Jans' teams defend and rebound, and this is a good defensive team. Mississippi State has a terrific inside-outside combo in Tolu Smith and Josh Hubbard. Smith commands a double-team in the post, and Hubbard is a dynamic scoring guard who explodes into his shot and has hit more than 100 3-point field goals on the season. Mississippi State has been high-level inconsistent, and at their best, the Bulldogs can compete with anyone. At less than their best, this team can be dispatched quickly. Mississippi State can struggle offensively, and turnovers can be an issue against pressure. But Mississippi State can get to the offensive glass, especially with Smith and Cameron Matthews.
X factor: The foul line. Mississippi State is a poor free throw shooting team, hitting only 67% of its foul shots, a sub-300 rate in Division I.
Upset potential: Medium. As a double-digit seed, Mississippi State can be dangerous but can be had by a good ball-control team.
MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS: The Spartans were expected to be among the nation's best teams before the season, but struggled to make the field by the end. The record doesn't reflect the pieces or experience level, but the analytics still value Michigan State. Rated in the top 20 overall in KenPom efficiency ratings, Michigan State has a solid defense, but the Spartans simply do not scare anyone with their transition game and offensive rebounding, usually feared qualities of coach Tom Izzo's teams. Michigan State is led by Tyson Walker, one of the best scoring guards in the country, and A.J. Hoggard, a strong, penetrating point guard who is an outstanding passer. Walker averages 18 points per game and is Michigan State's best shooter. He also leads the Spartans in steals. Hoggard is the top assist man, and has a 3 to 1 assist-to-turnover ratio. As up and down as the record looks, Spartan players have been similarly up and down. The biggest question mark has been production out of the center spot, where Izzo has experimented with different looks, but has not found consistency.
X factor: Malik Hall. When Hall plays well, Michigan State is very good. He is second to Walker in scoring and leads the team in rebounding and offensive rebounding. He can be a tough matchup, but needs to get going early. When quiet early, he tends to stay quiet.
Upset potential: Medium. Izzo has always owned March, and you always expect Michigan State to advance early while others are getting bounced. But this team is different. It can be Jekyll and Hyde in the same game. Won't be surprising to see Michigan State in the Sweet 16 if the team that beat Baylor shows up, but also won't be surprising if they go out early if the team shows up with no juice. It has been that kind of season.
WINNER: Mississippi State. The Spartans don't lose first-round games, but Michigan State has not played well this season. The Bulldogs are tough defensively and will cause Michigan State problems.
No. 5 SAINT MARY'S vs. No. 12 GRAND CANYON
SAINT MARY'S GAELS: The West Coast Conference champion has evolved into a really tough, gritty basketball team. After losing upper-class leaders and defensive stalwarts off last year's team, the Gaels started the season off 3-5 after eight games. Ever since, Saint Mary's is 23-2 with its only home losses to Missouri State and Gonzaga. Saint Mary's is a tempo-control team that makes Virginia seem fast, ranking 358th in the country in tempo and 359th in average length of possessions at over 20 seconds. Augustas Marciulionis, the WCC Player of the Year, and Aidan Mahaney, the Henry Steele of college basketball (look up "One on One" on YouTube, kids) are terrific guards who can both score and make plays for others. Alex Ducas, an All-WCC forward, is the best perimeter shooter and has hit 79 3-point field goals, tying him with Mahaney in 40 fewer attempts. The Gaels look like frat boys but rebound like a motorcycle gang. They are physical, tough and throw their bodies around. Saint Mary's has five players averaging double figures, and it is crazy hard to speed them up.
X factor: Mitchell Saxen. The 6-10 senior center is a first-team All-WCC performer and has guarded some big-time players in his time in Moraga. Saxen is the leading rebounder, offensive rebounder and shot-blocker and shoots 55% from the floor.
Upset potential: Medium. Because Saint Mary's can control the tempo, the Gaels are hard to establish rhythm against and will be in most every game with a chance to win. Wins over New Mexico, Colorado State, UNLV and Gonzaga twice prove that this team can play. Don't be surprised to see Saint Mary's in the Sweet 16 or out in the first weekend.
GRAND CANYON LOPES: The WAC champion is an impressive 29-4 with an early-season win over San Diego State and a close loss to South Carolina. The Lopes have a trio of outstanding players in Tyon Grant-Foster, Gabe McGlothan and Ray Harrison. Grant-Foster is a transfer from Kansas and DePaul who seemed to be done with basketball after a heart condition sidelined him for nearly two seasons. After receiving medical clearance, he returned to the court and averaged 20 points and six rebounds for coach Bryce Drew and GCU on his way to WAC Player of the Year honors. McGlothan is the top rebounder and a good defender who was selected first team All-WAC. Harrison, a second-team All-WAC performer, is a leading scorer-type who can take over, and he leads the team in assists.
X factor: Collin Moore. A WAC All-Defensive Team member, Moore leads the team in steals and is second in assists.
Upset potential: Medium.
WINNER: Grand Canyon. The best 5-12 upsets are this one and UAB over San Diego State. Grand Canyon can play, and it can win this game. Neither team will get by Alabama.
No. 4 ALABAMA vs. No. 13 CHARLESTON
ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE: The Crimson Tide are a difficult bunch to peg. Alabama is a truly outstanding offensive team that relies upon the 3-point shot to fuel the nation's top-rated offense. Coach Nate Oats' crew makes around 12 3-point field goals per game and gets those deep shots from transition and paint touches. The engines behind the Tide attack are lefties Mark Sears and Aaron Estrada, both of whom were mid-major recruits out of high school. Sears reminds of former Villanova star Jalen Brunson and does a great job of getting to the rim and the foul line. While Tennessee's Dalton Knecht is the SEC player of the year, Sears has better overall numbers. Estrada is an outstanding guard rebounder and a triple-double threat. Alabama has multiple threats from deep and are a tough cover from tap to buzzer. The problem for the Tide? Defense. Alabama is the top-rated offensive team in the nation but rated outside of the top 100 in adjusted defensive efficiency. When Alabama guards, the Tide wins. When Alabama doesn't, opposing players get career highs.
X factor: Nick Pringle. Alabama is not a big team, nor a rim protecting team. Pringle is a good rebounder and can impact the game on the defensive end. When Pringle and Grant Nelson hit the glass and defend, Alabama is a second-weekend team.
Upset potential: Medium. Because Alabama does not consistently lock down on the defensive end, there are several teams that can clip Alabama in an early-round game. Alabama has lost only to Power 5 teams, but has given up 90 points or more in five games.
CHARLESTON COUGARS: Coach Pat Kelsey has the Colonial Athletic champion back in the NCAA tournament again. The Cougars are an up-tempo, attacking team led by veteran Australian guard Reyne Smith, who hits more than three 3-point field goals per game, 22nd in the nation. Along with fellow veteran Ante Brzovic, a 6-10, good-passing Croatian and former Division III star at Southeastern Oklahoma State (where Dennis Rodman went to school), Smith is a veteran and one of the best shooters in the country. Last season, Charleston played San Diego State to a six-point game in the first round. This year, the Cougars can score and will make things difficult for any big school it runs into.
X factor: Frankie Policelli. The 6-9 transfer from Stony Brook has hit 67 3-point field goals this season and will need to make shots for Charleston to win.
Upset potential: Low. Charleston can play but will have to hit shots, defend and rebound at the highest level.
WINNER: Alabama. This is a great upset pick, because Charleston can really play. But, because Sears is so good, I like Alabama's scoring ability to overcome its defensive issues.
No. 6 CLEMSON vs. No. 11 NEW MEXICO
CLEMSON TIGERS: Coach Brad Brownell had an NCAA tournament team last season but was snubbed by the committee. This year, there was no question. Road wins at Alabama, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Syracuse and Florida State bolstered a strong case for its at-large berth. Brownell has a great inside-outside combo in PJ Hall and Joseph Girard, the two top scorers. Hall can step away and drill a 3 and also dominate in the paint while Girard is a great 3-point shooter and an automatic free throw shooter. Clemson is a better offensive team than a defensive team, and its defense is solid but not spectacular.
X factor: Ian Schieffelin. Arguably the most improved player in the ACC, Schieffelin is an outstanding rebounder and an especially productive offensive rebounder, among the best in the country. When Schieffelin produces, Clemson is tough to deal with.
Upset potential: Medium. Clemson is not a knockout punch, up-tempo team, but can hang with anybody when playing its best. The Tigers have not closed out some games late and have lost some close ones.
NEW MEXICO LOBOS: The Mountain West champion is an outstanding offensive team because it has multiple scorers that can each go off. The Lobos are 26-9 and won four straight after losing a heartbreaker at Utah State. They take care of the ball and defend at a high level. Point guard Donovan Dent has size and length and is a great passer, leading New Mexico in assists. Dent can really penetrate and make plays for himself or others. Jaelen House is the best player, both All-MWC and MWC All-Defensive Team, and is the top 3-point threat. Jamal Mashburn Jr. is one of the best mid-range scorers in the tournament but can also hit a 3.
X factor: JT Toppin. An All-MVC performer as a freshman, Toppin is the Lobos' best NBA prospect. He is an outstanding rebounder and consistently competes for and gets second-shot opportunities. A great finisher, Toppin is also a rim protector.
Upset potential: High.
WINNER: New Mexico. This is an upset pick. Clemson has been uninspired at certain times, and the Lobos are really good offensively. I don't like either team to get past Baylor.
No. 3 BAYLOR vs. No. 14 COLGATE
BAYLOR BEARS: Coach Scott Drew's team is trending in the right direction heading into the NCAA tournament. The Bears can shoot it, and are one of the best offensive teams in the country. Baylor is among the nation's top 5 in offensive efficiency and leads the nation in 3-point shooting percentage, knocking in almost nine 3s per game. Ja'Kobe Walter, Jalen Bridges, Jayden Nunn and RayJ Dennis can all shoot it, and Baylor is a very good passing team, averaging more than 15 assists per game. As per usual, Baylor is a great offensive rebounding team, including long rebounds. Walter is a walking bucket and, after a slow Big 12 start shooting the ball, he is playing his best basketball. Dennis, the former MAC Player of the Year and leading scorer, is the Big 12's assist leader and Baylor's steals leader. But Baylor shares some attributes with Alabama ... great offense but not as stingy on defense as in past seasons. Still, Baylor fights, and even its losses have been impressive. Baylor has lost three games in overtime, and the Bears have been competitive in every loss except to Michigan State. Late in the season, Drew went to more zone looks defensively, and it has been successful.
X factor: Yves Missi. The freshman big man is explosive and is really coming on late in the season. Missi will be a first-round NBA draft pick whenever he comes out, and can really run, block shots, offensive rebound and finish above the rim. Missi is a difference-maker.
Upset potential: Medium. Because Baylor is not as consistent on the defensive end, if the Bears are not knocking down shots from deep, they can get clipped. Yet, Baylor has lost only to good teams, with the "worst" loss coming to Kansas State on the road. At its best, Baylor can reach and do well in the second weekend.
COLGATE RAIDERS: The Patriot League champions are making their fifth straight NCAA tournament appearance under coach Matt Langel. Think of guarding Princeton when you think of Colgate. This is a very good and tough offensive team that won 16 of its past 17 games. Colgate is led by 6-0 sophomore guard Braeden Smith, who averages over 12 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists and almost 2 steals per game. Colgate makes more than 8 3-point field goals per game on better than 36% shooting, controls tempo and wins with defense and rebounding.
X factor: Ryan Moffatt. The 6-6 senior leads the team with 64 3-point field goals on 37% shooting.
Upset potential: Medium. Colgate has some size with Keegan Records and Jeff Woodward at 6-10 and 6-11. Both are good rebounders and lane protectors.
WINNER: Baylor. The Bears shoot it too well, and Missi will be a tough matchup.
No. 7 DAYTON vs. No. 10 NEVADA
DAYTON FLYERS: The Flyers have a true star and All-American in DaRon Holmes II. Holmes does it all, averaging more than 20 points, 8 rebounds and almost 3 assists. The Flyers make almost 10 3s per game and can win at a fast or slower tempo. Aside from a double-digit loss to Houston, Dayton has been competitive in every game. Dayton shoots almost 41% from deep, top five in the nation.
X factor: Koby Brea. Brea is one of the best shooters in the country. He averages 11 points per game and hits almost three deep bombs per game. Brea shoots almost 50% from deep on the season and had hit 89 3s going into the Atlantic 10 tournament.
Upset potential: Medium. Dayton will be a tough out because it has a true star in Holmes and solid pieces around him. Six players hit more than 24 3s in the regular season, with four guys hitting more than 40.
NEVADA WOLF PACK: The Wolf Pack are a solid defensive team that has multiple scorers. Nevada is led by All-Mountain West trio Kenan Blackshear, Jarod Lucas and Nick Davidson, all of whom average double-figure points, and All-MWC defensive team wing Tre Coleman. Lucas, a transfer guard from Oregon State, averages more than 17 points and is the best perimeter shooter, hitting 77 3-point field goals on the year. Davidson is the top rebounder and offensive rebounder, and Coleman leads in steals. Nevada gets to the foul line, but the Wolf Pack can be vulnerable on the glass to bigger teams. This is a high-assist, low-turnover squad.
X factor: Hunter McIntosh. The senior did not play in the MWC tournament because of a sore knee. He can knock down 3s, and ranks second behind Lucas with 44 made in only 17 minutes per game.
Upset potential: Medium.
WINNER: Nevada. The Mountain West has disappointed in past years, but Nevada has a very good backcourt, I am taking the Wolf Pack.
No. 2 ARIZONA vs. No. 15 LONG BEACH STATE
ARIZONA WILDCATS: The Wildcats are on the top tier of title contenders with UConn, Purdue and Houston. With an explosive, up-tempo offense and a substantially better defense than last season's version, this team can win it all. Arizona is balanced offensively, with explosive guards and very good size to score around and protect the rim. Excellent rebounding at both ends, a high assist rate, and great game-planning provide Arizona with a legit chance to challenge for it all. North Carolina transfer Caleb Love remains a dynamic scorer who has become more efficient under coach Tommy Lloyd, and he is still capable of getting 25 or more in any game. Oumar Ballo is a load inside, and San Diego State transfer Keshad Johnson provides a multi-positional defender that is tough as nails. Key performers for Arizona are point guard Kylan Boswell and wing Pelle Larsson. Boswell is strong and explosive, but has not played his best, at times, away from the McKale Center. Larsson does it all for Arizona and projects as the Christian Braun of the Wildcats. That worked out pretty well for Kansas.
X factor: Love has had an All-America season and serves as an example of how the transfer portal can be a positive for both parties. Love has blossomed and excelled, and RJ Davis has blown up at North Carolina. That was one terrific backcourt. Love is the Wildcats' leading scorer, and he is not afraid of the big moment. In fact, he shines when the lights are brightest.
Upset potential: Low. The only issue that can trip up Arizona early is a tempo-control team. When held under 80 points, Arizona is 2-3.
LONG BEACH STATE 49ERS: The Big West champion is a feel-good story. The school announced before the conference tournament that coach Dan Monson would be dismissed after the 49ers played their final game. Fourth-seeded Long Beach State proceeded to win the conference tournament and earn an automatic bid, and now Monson, who has been at the school since 2007, takes the 49ers to the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2012. He has experience there. Monson was the first coach to take Gonzaga to the Elite Eight in 1999 and did it with Mark Few as his assistant. The Beach has few shooters but some quality players with Marcus Tsohonis and Aboubacar Traore leading the way. Tsohonis made 40.5% of his shots this season but averaged nearly 18 points per game. Traore is a triple-double threat, nearly accomplishing the feat in the Big West tournament against UC Irvine with 20 points, 8 rebounds and 7 assists. He has multiple 20-rebound games on his résumé and is an inside-outside threat.
X factor: Shooting. The Beach shoots just 31% from deep and 71% from the free throw line, both in the bottom third of Division I.
Upset potential: Low.
WINNER: Arizona. The Beach is more conventional than Princeton was last year. Arizona is too talented and strong to get bounced again.
Second round
No. 1 NORTH CAROLINA vs. No. 8 MISSISSIPPI STATE
Winner: North Carolina. This is a scary game for Carolina. But again, if the Heels have the defensive edge they need, I like Carolina.
No. 4 ALABAMA vs. No. 12 GRAND CANYON
Winner: Alabama. Saint Mary's would present Alabama more problems, but I would still like Alabama's draw.
No. 3 BAYLOR vs. No. 11 NEW MEXICO
Winner: Baylor. The Bears are tougher than people think. But New Mexico is an attractive upset pick here, too.
No. 2 ARIZONA vs. No. 10 NEVADA
Winner: Arizona. The inside game and the glass will be Arizona's advantage here.
Sweet 16
No. 1 NORTH CAROLINA vs. No. 4 ALABAMA
Winner: North Carolina. This is where Alabama's defense can be exploited. The Tide will have to outshoot the Heels, but Carolina's defense and rebounding should make the difference.
No. 2 ARIZONA vs. No. 3 BAYLOR
Winner: Arizona. The Wildcats are better on the interior. If Arizona guards the 3-point line, the Wildcats advance.
Elite Eight
No. 1 NORTH CAROLINA vs. No. 2 ARIZONA
Winner: Arizona. Caleb Love and RJ Davis go against each other. Arizona is better offensively, and both can guard. I like Arizona to clip the Heels in this one.
SOUTH REGION
First round
No. 1 HOUSTON v. No. 16 LONGWOOD
HOUSTON COUGARS: Coach Kelvin Sampson's team leads the nation in "planning hard." The Cougars are the nation's best defensive team. Relentless is the only way to describe their swarming, physical defense. Houston will blitz ball screens, bring violent double-teams in the post, and leave opponents bruised and battered after 40 minutes of near suffocating pressure. Point guard Jamal Shead is one of the strongest, most compact guards in the country. He is among a handful of the best on-ball defenders and a fearless scorer that wills in tough buckets when the game is on the line. Houston forces a turnover on one out of four opponent possessions and is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country, which means extra possessions to separate from an opponent. And, although Houston ranks among the better offenses in the country, this is not a great shooting team, both from the field and the foul line. In fact, Houston ranks in the bottom third of Division I in effective field goal percentage, 2-point shooting, and foul shooting. Big men Ja'Vier Francis and J'Wan Roberts are both tough defenders, rebounders and above-the-rim finishers.
X factor: L.J. Cryer and Emanuel Sharp are Houston's best perimeter threats and 3-point shooters. Cryer is a shot-maker with great range, but he can be streaky. When Cryer and Sharp are hitting shots, Houston is Final Four quality. When they are not, Houston's defense has to pitch shutouts.
Upset potential: Low. Houston's defense can overwhelm first-weekend opponents. This team is too tough to be an early out. After the first weekend, the Cougars will have to score more efficiently, but there is a very low probability that Houston will get tripped up early.
LONGWOOD LANCERS: The Big South champion sports a 21-13 record but does not have a single win against a team rated among the KenPom.com top 100. The Lancers are not a great shooting team and turnovers have been an issue, but Longwood does a good job on the offensive glass, getting more than 18% of its misses. Guard Walyn Napper leads the team in scoring and assists.
X factor: Michael Christmas. The 6-6 senior is the top 3-point shooter, second-leading scorer and leading rebounder.
Upset potential: Low. After losing six of eight games, Longwood ripped off seven wins in its last nine games. Still, the upset chance is minimal.
WINNER: Houston. Houston plays Longwood in Memphis on Friday at 9:20 p.m. ET. There is no advantage for the little guy here, and Houston is smarting from the blowout loss to Iowa State in the Big 12 tournament finale. I said two weeks ago there was no way Houston loses during the first weekend. No way Houston loses the first game.
No. 8 NEBRASKA vs. No. 9 TEXAS A&M
NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS: Nebraska has had a really good season. Wins over Purdue and Michigan State were revelatory. The engine that makes Nebraska special in any given game is shooting guard Keisei Tominaga. The headband-wearing guard has no limit to his range and shoots the ball conscience-free. When he is hitting, he can take over. Big man Rienk Mast, a transfer from Bradley, is a double-double guy who is physical and efficient. Mast can pass it, as well.
X factor: Juwan Gary. One of the best defenders in the country, Gary can decide a game by being a stopper on the defensive end.
Upset potential: Medium. Nebraska can make shots from multiple positions, especially Tominaga. He is a wild card who can get 30 points if he gets hot. This is a fun, capable team.
TEXAS A&M AGGIES: The Aggies' scoring power is from the guard spots with Wade Taylor IV and Tyrece Radford. Taylor is a bucket-getting perimeter scorer and Radford is a strong, left-handed, downhill driver who can also get on the glass like few guards can. Offensive rebounding and toughness are what sets this team apart. Texas A&M is the best offensive rebounding team in the nation, grabbing 42% of its misses for high-percentage second shots. The first shot, however, is an adventure. Texas A&M is not a good shooting team, either from 2-point (40%) or 3-point range (28%). If you choke off the offensive rebounds for the super athletic and relentless rebounding Aggies, they can be had.
X factor: Andersson Garcia. The 6-7 wing is the best offensive rebounder in the SEC and one of the most productive in the country. He is relentless and nearly impossible to keep off the glass.
Upset potential: Medium. The Aggies beat Kentucky twice and have been on a heater lately. With Taylor able to go for 35 or more in a given game, Texas A&M is really dangerous. When not hitting, which happens a lot, the Aggies are gettable, although the ability to defend and get second shots tempers that a bit.
WINNER: Texas A&M. This game is in Memphis at 6:50 p.m. ET. Like most 8-9 games, this is a coin flip. But Texas A&M is the better rebounding team, by far. That won't matter if Nebraska hits enough shots, though. I like Texas A&M to win, even though shooting can be a problem for the Aggies. They can rebound misses.
No. 5 WISCONSIN vs. No. 12 JAMES MADISON
WISCONSIN BADGERS: The Badgers have had a Jekyll-and-Hyde season. When at its best, Wisconsin can hang with most any team. When less than its best, Wisconsin has been blown out of gyms. Since the start of February, the Badgers lost seven of 10 games, with the three wins at home against teams not in the NCAA field. As per usual, Wisconsin is a low-turnover, low-foul, solid rebounding, tempo-control team. In past years, that meant the Badgers were hard to play against and hard to beat. Wisconsin has beaten Virginia, Marquette and Michigan State (twice) but has precious few wins against other tournament teams. Part of the problem for Wisconsin has been spotty coverage of the 3-point line and no rim protection. Still, Wisconsin has some legit weapons, especially AJ Storr, the transfer wing from St. John's. Storr is an explosive scorer and teams with Max Klesmit as the Badgers' top scoring threats.
X factor: Chucky Hepburn. One of the most reliable point guards in the Big Ten when healthy, Hepburn operates well in pick-and-roll and leads the team in assists and steals, but can also score when needed.
Upset potential: Medium to high. Because Wisconsin is a lower-tempo, lower-possession team, margin for error can be slimmer. As such, the Badgers can be clipped early, but such an experienced team should be able to survive a first-round challenge.
JAMES MADISON DUKES: The Sun Belt champion has won more games heading into the NCAA tournament than any other team. James Madison is 31-3 with an eye-opening win at Michigan State, but they don't have another win over a team rated in the top 100 of the KenPom.com efficiency rankings. Still, this team can play, and has depth and weapons. The Dukes are led by Sun Belt Player of the Year Terrence Edwards Jr., a 6-5 wing who leads the team in scoring and assists, averaging 17 points and almost four assists. Boston College transfer T.J. Bickerstaff leads JMU in rebounding and offensive rebounding while shooting over 60% from the field. The Dukes are solid on the defensive end and guard the 3-point line very well, forcing tough 2s from opponents. On the offensive end, five different Dukes have hit 40 or more 3-point field goals.
X factor: Noah Freidel. The transfer from South Dakota State (where Freidel played with Creighton's Baylor Scheierman) has hit 73 3-point field goals on the season, which leads James Madison.
Upset potential: Medium. This is a good team that does not fear anyone. The win over Michigan State had some talking about an at-large berth, but the schedule wouldn't allow that. James Madison eliminated all doubt by winning the SoCon automatic bid.
WINNER: Wisconsin. This game is in Brooklyn at 9:40 p.m. ET on Friday. Does it bother me that Wisconsin lost eight of 11 before the Big Ten tournament? Yes. Is JMU good enough to win? Yes. But Chucky Hepburn won't let the Badgers lose.
No. 4 DUKE vs. No. 13 VERMONT
DUKE BLUE DEVILS: The Blue Devils have been trending up for the past month and have the talent and chops to make a Final Four. Duke is balanced, ranking in the top 10 nationally in offense and the top 25 nationally in defense. Duke is not a turnover-forcing defense, nor a shot-blocking team. But the Blue Devils do a solid job guarding the 3-point line and do not turn the ball over on the offensive end. Behind Jared McCain, Jeremy Roach, Tyrese Proctor, Duke's assist leader, and Kyle Filipowski, Duke's top scorer, rebounder and shot-blocker, the Blue Devils can spread the floor and make perimeter shots. McCain, the freshman guard who leads Duke in 3-point field goals made, is a winning player who has developed into a go-to scorer. He is a good guard rebounder and you must find him early in transition. Roach is having a spectacular senior season, and his numbers are career-high in every area except turnovers, where they are career-low. The key is Filipowski, the versatile big man. When he is aggressive, he can be dominant. Duke has been getting better bench production, especially from the super athletic Sean Stewart.
X factor: Mark Mitchell. The long, lanky lefty is an outstanding defender and offensive rebounder and overcame early shooting woes that caused opponents not to guard him at all outside the paint. Mitchell has been at his best in ACC play and very productive through his energy and athleticism.
Upset potential: Low to medium. Duke handled teams it was supposed to beat, but Filipowski foul trouble is the wild card. If he has to sit because of fouls, it increases the upset possibility.
VERMONT CATAMOUNTS: The America East champion is a solid defensive team that can really pass, cut and take care of the ball. Vermont has one of the lowest turnover rates in the country and plays at a deliberate tempo. It is easier to slow a game down than to speed one up, and Vermont can get its tempo well enough to beat Charleston, Saint Louis and Yale before ripping off 18 wins in 19 games in America East competition. TJ Long, the transfer from Fairfield, is the top scorer and 3-point shooter and averages over 12 points, 4 rebounds and 2 made 3s per game.
X factor: Shamir Bogues. The Tarleton State transfer wing is Vermont's top rebounder and steals leader and had 15 points, 9 rebounds and 4 steals in the America East title game.
Upset potential: Low. Vermont does not have great size on the glass, which could prove problematic against a conference big shot.
WINNER: Duke. This game is in Brooklyn at 7:10 p.m. ET on Friday, and it will be a Duke crowd. The Blue Devils have lost a few games they should have won, but they have not lost to anyone outside of a Power 5 conference. Vermont is good and can play, but Duke wins.
No. 6 TEXAS TECH vs. No. 11 NC STATE
TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS: The Red Raiders are difficult to beat, and coach Grant McCasland has done a great job in Lubbock. Texas Tech is not as good or as tough defensively as it was in the past, but it is a better offensive team. Rebounding and keeping opponents from second shots have been issues, but this balanced group is capable. Five guys average double figures, with a sixth averaging 9.9 points per game. The engine of the team is Pop Isaacs, a dynamic guard who leads Texas Tech in scoring and 3-point field goals made. Isaacs is not an efficient shooter, but streaky, and can get hot and carry the Red Raiders. And this team can really make free throws, which is important in close games.
X factor: Darrion Williams. The transfer from Nevada is a 6-6 wing who leads Texas Tech in rebounding and offensive rebounding, while ranking third in scoring and second in steals. He had 30 points against Kansas and has been on a heater since early February.
Upset potential: Medium. Texas Tech didn't play a crazy difficult nonconference slate but has shown that it can beat almost anybody. The margins have been slim in Big 12 play, so the Red Raiders can knock somebody out or get knocked out by a quality lower seed.
NC STATE WOLFPACK: The ACC champion just won five games in five days, after losing four straight coming into the ACC tournament. It was likely the most improbable, incredible run in a conference tournament ever. The question is, will NC State have anything left in the tank for the NCAA tournament after the physical and emotional energy expended? NC State is unique because it has DJ Burns Jr., a former Tennessee and Winthrop big guy who has the build of an offensive lineman and the feet of a ballerina. The big lefty catches the ball off the lane and backs you down in the post. If you double him, he passes out for open 3s. If you single cover, he will ride you to the bucket. DJ Horne is the primary scorer and 3-point shooter, but will he get any help? Casey Morsell may be compromised with injury, Jayden Taylor has ankle issues and Dennis Parker Jr. is out with an illness.
X factor: Michael O'Connell. Forever to be known as "Miracle Mike" for the shot he hit against Virginia to put the game into overtime, O'Connell upped his scoring production in the ACC tournament. The Stanford transfer was the difference between "season over" and "ACC champs." Can he keep scoring and playing at this level?
Upset potential: Low. NC State is talented but so banged up and emotionally drained after five games in five days. But getting here was improbable. Why not the Pack?
WINNER: Texas Tech. This game is in Pittsburgh at 9:40 p.m. ET on Thursday. Absent five games in five days, I would take NC State. But the physical and emotional toll of the ACC tournament will be a lot to overcome, and NC State is banged up. I cannot believe the NCAA couldn't find a Friday game for them. I don't see either team getting past Kentucky in the second round. Therefore, an upset pick likely won't hurt you.
No. 3 KENTUCKY vs. No. 14 OAKLAND
KENTUCKY WILDCATS: Kentucky is Final Four good. The defense has been the only issue, but the Wildcats have improved, especially as the big guys have been healthy and available. Earlier in the season, I said that Kentucky's offense was national championship good, but the defense was on the bubble. Now Kentucky's defense is firmly in the field. Kentucky scores easily and is one of the best transition-scoring teams in the country. This team is fueled by its guards. Antonio Reeves, Reed Sheppard, Rob Dillingham and D.J. Wagner do most of the scoring and are the speed of the team. Sheppard is the best player, leading the team in 3-point field goals, 3-point percentage, assists and steals. Reeves is the target of opposing defenses, as he can go off for 30 or more in any game. Plus, Reeves is consistent. If Kentucky defends and rebounds, this is the fastest team in America, end-to-end.
X factor: Tre Mitchell. The most experienced and mature player, Mitchell is a calming influence. He leads Kentucky in rebounding and is an excellent passer and help defender. When he plays well, Kentucky usually wins.
Upset potential: Mild. Kentucky is young but so talented that an upset is still unlikely. Because Kentucky can score so easily, early opponents not only have to score but also keep Kentucky from scoring. That will be tough to do.
OAKLAND GOLDEN GRIZZLIES: The Horizon League champion won 25 games against a tough schedule early. The Grizzlies are led by 6-6 junior Trey Townsend, who is averaging over 16 points and seven rebounds for the second straight season for head coach Greg Kampe. Kampe coached Townsend's father and now Townsend, who had 17 points against Ohio State, 19 points against Illinois, 28 points against Xavier, 17 points against Michigan State and 21 points against Dayton. In the Horizon title game, Townsend exploded for 38 points, 11 rebounds and 5 assists against Milwaukee. He has hit only nine 3-point field goals on the season. Oakland finished the season winning 17 of the last 20 games and was clearly toughened up by the brutal nonconference schedule. Shooters Jack Gohlke (121 3-pointers) and Blake Lampman (83 3s) have combined for 204 3-point field goals. Gohlke averages almost four 3-point field goals per game, best in the Horizon and fourth in the nation.
X factor: Trey Townsend. The Horizon League Player of the Year leads the team in scoring, rebounding, offensive rebounding, assists and steals. He does it all for Oakland and will have to carry a big load in the NCAA tournament for Oakland to win.
Upset potential: Medium. This team is dangerous, tough and tested. The Grizzlies, who play an interesting matchup zone defense, may get beaten, but they will not be afraid of anyone. Greg Kampe is one of the best coaches you have never heard of and has been at the helm at Oakland for more than 40 years.
WINNER: Kentucky. This game is in Pittsburgh at 7:10 p.m. ET on Thursday. The Wildcats are young, but they are too talented for Oakland. Townsend is the concern, but Kentucky has too much.
No. 7 FLORIDA vs. No. 10 COLORADO
FLORIDA GATORS: The Gators are on the upswing heading into the NCAA tournament. Florida is second in the nation in offensive rebounding, with only Texas A&M grabbing more misses. Florida is fifth in the nation in offensive rebound percentage, grabbing more than 38% of its missed shots. Florida's guards are truly outstanding. Walter Clayton Jr. is the team's top scorer after transferring in from Iona, while UC Riverside transfer Zyon Pullin is an efficient guard who leads the Gators in assists and free throw attempts. Seton Hall transfer Tyrese Samuel is the top rebounder, but the team's top offensive rebounder -- Micah Handlogten -- suffered a fractured leg in the SEC tournament final. Florida is not a stingy defensive team but has made strides there. Wins against Kentucky at Rupp, Auburn and Alabama are encouraging. But losses to Vanderbilt and Ole Miss temper the enthusiasm.
X factor: Will Richard. The Belmont transfer is the second-leading 3-point shooter and has six games of 20 points or more. Florida has won all six games.
Upset potential: Medium. Florida does not have bad losses out of conference. The Gators were beaten by Virginia, Baylor and Wake Forest but handled themselves well against everyone else.
COLORADO BUFFALOES: The Buffs were among the last four in, but this team is talented enough to get to the second weekend. It begins and ends with KJ Simpson (19.6 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 4.9 APG), a star who took his game to another level this season. He forms a strong one-two punch with Tristan da Silva, making Colorado one of the more efficient offensive teams around. The Buffaloes also do a good job on the defensive boards, anchored by the big body of 6-foot-11 Eddie Lampkin Jr.
X factor: Cody Williams. A projected lottery pick, Williams returned from an ankle injury to come off the bench during the three Pac-12 tournament games. If he can return to his pre-injury form, Colorado's tournament trajectory changes dramatically.
Upset potential: High.
WINNER: Florida. This game is Friday at 4:40 p.m. ET in Indianapolis. I like Colorado to clip Boise State in the First Four to reach this game, but not to advance further. It is a concern that Florida is playing without Micah Handlogten, but the Gators should win.
No. 2 MARQUETTE vs. No. 15 WESTERN KENTUCKY
MARQUETTE GOLDEN EAGLES: Shaka Smart has an outstanding, unselfish team that can force turnovers, make the game chaos for an opponent and cut people up on the offensive end. The quarterback, Tyler Kolek, is the best point guard in the country and one of the most competitive. The lefty scores, gets out in transition and is surgical in pick-and-roll. And Kolek has weapons around him. Kam Jones is a sniper. David Joplin can attack from deep and off the dribble, and Oso Ighodaro is perhaps the most versatile big man in the Big East. Ighodaro is a playmaking big guy who can really pass. And he can switch onto a guard and stay in front. Marquette is not a big team, so powerful rebounding teams can cause problems, but the margin of excellence for the Golden Eagles is the turnover margin. Marquette trails only Houston and Iowa State among Power 6 teams in turnover margin at +5 per game.
X factor: Kolek's health is imperative. He missed games toward the end of the season with an oblique injury, and when he is out of the lineup, Marquette is still good. With him, Phoenix is within reach. Without him, not so much.
Upset potential: Against a bigger, bully-ball team that takes care of the ball, Marquette can be beaten on the glass. Without Kolek, of course more teams will have a legit chance to knock them out.
WESTERN KENTUCKY HILLTOPPERS: The Conference USA champion is a unique mix of junior college transfers and Division I transfers. Former juco All-American Don McHenry is the point guard and leads the team in scoring and total assists. McHenry is a natural scorer who pairs well with Purdue transfer Brandon Newman (10.5 points, 5.4 rebounds per game). Also a factor is former Oklahoma wing Khristian Lander, an athletic driver and defender.
X factor: Dontaie Allen. The Kentucky transfer is the best shooter, averaging only 8.3 points but leading the team in 3-point field goals at a 40% clip.
Upset potential: Low.
WINNER: Marquette. The question mark is the health of Tyler Kolek. If he plays, it will be Marquette in a walk. If he doesn't, I still like Marquette. Western Kentucky turns it over, and Marquette can exploit that.
Second round
No. 1 HOUSTON vs. No. 9 TEXAS A&M
Winner: Houston. This is a scary game for the Cougars. These two teams played earlier this year in Houston; Wade Taylor went off for 34 points, and Tyrece Radford did not play. Texas A&M made a furious comeback to make it close, grabbing 17 offensive rebounds along the way. Still, I like Houston to advance, but this could bust a bracket if you like Houston going a long way.
No. 4 DUKE vs. No. 5 WISCONSIN
Winner: Wisconsin. The Badgers have size to deal with Duke, and Wisconsin's AJ Storr will be a difficult matchup. Despite some crazy swings by Wisconsin, I like the Badgers here. Tough call.
No. 3 KENTUCKY vs. No. 6 TEXAS TECH
Winner: Kentucky. Texas Tech is more balanced between offense and defense, but Kentucky is far more effective on the offensive end. Kentucky should win this game.
No. 2 MARQUETTE vs. No. 7 FLORIDA
Winner: Marquette. Again, Kolek's health is the key, but Marquette should win anyway. The Gators are not the best defensive team and can be loose with the ball at times. Marquette is a tough style to prepare for in a day. I like Marquette.
Sweet 16
No. 1 HOUSTON vs. No. 5 WISCONSIN
Winner: Houston. This is one tough team. In a slower game, Houston still has the advantage. Wisconsin has had some issues with athletic teams, and Houston is athletic and strong. The keys will be AJ Storr and Chucky Hepburn.
No. 2 MARQUETTE vs. No. 3 KENTUCKY
Winner: Kentucky. If Kolek is truly healthy, I would be reluctant to go with the Wildcats. But if Kolek is at all compromised, I like Kentucky here.
Elite Eight
No. 1 HOUSTON vs. No. 3 KENTUCKY
Winner: Houston. Look, the Cougars took a beating against Iowa State, and Kentucky is the better offensive team. But Houston is so good defensively and on the glass, I am going with the Cougars. I would suggest going with your heart here. If it bleeds blue, go blue.
EAST REGION
First round
No. 1 UCONN vs. No.16 STETSON
UCONN HUSKIES: The Huskies are the nation's best team, and coach Danny Hurley has not only last year's championship trophy to admire but also the best roster with great pieces at every position. UConn has one of the nation's most effective and intricate offensive attacks, but it's their trend to a top defensive team that makes the Huskies the prohibitive favorite to win it all again. UConn is an outstanding shooting team that accentuates its ability with beautiful cutting and pressure on the rim, making the Huskies one of the best 2-point shooting teams in the nation. Around half of UConn's points come inside the arc, and the offensive schemes keep opposing teams off-balance. The key performers are point guard Tristen Newton, a triple-double threat, Cam Spencer, a great shooter and cutter, super freshman Stephon Castle, and Alex Karaban, perhaps the most underrated star among the nation's best teams. Big man Donovan Clingan is healthy and a force at both ends, and he teams very effectively with Samson Johnson as a formidable big man tandem. While the offense is the lead story, UConn's defensive trend is the most impressive improvement. The Huskies are elite at both ends of the floor.
X factor: Newton. Last year, the East Carolina transfer was questioned as to whether he was a true point guard. He not only proved that he was, but proved that he was indispensable. His size, passing ability and three-level scoring give UConn an edge in almost every game.
Upset potential: UConn does not project as an early out. During the season, UConn was not subject to an upset or legitimate scare from a lesser team. Outside of Big East play, the Huskies lost only at Kansas when hobbled and the Jayhawks hit some incredible shots down the stretch. Still, UConn had a great chance to win. In other words, UConn will have to be beaten. They will not shrink in the moment against an upstart Cinderella. The Huskies are not only Final Four good, they are "cut the nets down" good. UConn is one of those teams that you ride with to the end in this bracket.
STETSON HATTERS: The ASUN champion has had a remarkable turnaround under Donnie Jones this season and ripped through the ASUN tournament, averaging 88 points per game with 94 points in the final against Austin Peay. Stetson, however, is ranked among the bottom third of Division I in just about every meaningful defensive efficiency metric. The Hatters can score, especially Jalen Blackmon, the 6-3 junior who started his career at Grand Canyon. Blackmon averages over 21 points per game and has made 104 3-point field goals on the season. Blackmon hits over 3.2 3-point field goals per game, 15th in the nation. A lot of Blackmon's buckets come off of Stephan Swenson assists, as the senior drops about six dimes per game to go with five rebounds and 14 points per game.
X factor: Aubin Gateretse. The 6-11 Belgian center averages almost 12 points and eight rebounds on over 70% from the floor. Against the big shots, he will have to play well for Stetson to have a chance.
Upset potential: Low. Stetson does not force turnovers or rebound for extra possession. The Hatters would have to be perfect to win.
WINNER: Connecticut. The Huskies play the Hatters in Brooklyn at 2:45 p.m. ET on Friday I can't fathom that UConn will lose this game. They are not built that way.
No. 8 FLORIDA ATLANTIC vs. No. 9 NORTHWESTERN
FLORIDA ATLANTIC OWLS: This sounds crazy, but FAU is a better team this season than last season when it reached the Final Four. The Owls are in a different, tougher league and played a much tougher schedule in and out of conference. The Owls are legit, and they are confident. They have beaten Arizona, Butler, Virginia Tech, Texas A&M and Memphis this season. As per usual, FAU is led by stars Johnell Davis, Alijah Martin and big man Vlad Goldin, all of whom were big-time contributors to the Owls' Final Four run. This is an excellent passing and cutting team, with all cuts to the ball or to the basket. Davis is a bucket-getter and leads FAU in scoring and assists. Martin is an attack guard who leads the team in 3-point field goals, steals and competitiveness. Five Owls have hit 38 or more 3s, and all are skilled and tough. FAU attacks help as well as any team out there.
X factor: Vlad Goldin. The Texas Tech transfer is the key to success for FAU. When he stays out of foul trouble, he is a handful for any opposing team, and he makes FAU much more powerful. Goldin leads the team in rebounding, offensive rebounding, field goal percentage and free throw attempts.
Upset potential: Low. FAU has lost a couple of curious games to Bryant and Florida Gulf Coast, but this experienced bunch should not go out early to a lesser team. FAU is a second-weekend team that is just as dangerous this year as last year.
NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS: The Wildcats lost Ty Berry for the season, their best cutter and second-best 3-point threat, which limits the ceiling of this team. Still, Northwestern has had a really good season and is still capable of winning a game or two in the NCAA tournament. The reason is Boo Buie, one of the best guards in the Big Ten. Buie averages over 19 points and four assists for coach Chris Collins and shoots over 44% from deep and over 85% from the foul line. Northwestern takes care of the ball and fights for everything.
X factor: Brooks Barnhizer. The 6-6 wing plays bigger than he is listed and leads Northwestern in steals and rebounding at over seven rebounds per game. Northwestern can hang on the glass, but it is not a strength.
Upset potential: Medium. Because Northwestern plays in so many tough games, the Wildcats will not be afraid of anyone.
WINNER: Florida Atlantic. This game is at noon ET on Friday before UConn plays. The Owls don't defend like I expected, but this is a fabulous offensive team. Northwestern lost Berry but is still a good team. Without Berry, one less shooter to cover. The difference will be FAU's Goldin. He needs to stay on the floor.
No. 5 SAN DIEGO STATE vs. No. 12 UAB
SAN DIEGO STATE AZTECS: Last year's national runner-up is back again as a No. 5 seed, led by arguably the most improved player in the country, Jaedon LeDee (21.1 PPG, 8.4 RPG). The Aztecs are top 10 in defensive efficiency for the third straight season. They guard the 3-point line as well as anyone and make opponents earn their points.
X factor: Perimeter shooting. San Diego State is a bit streaky offensively, particularly from the 3-point line (31%).
Upset potential: Medium. The Aztecs play their share of tight games. As good as LeDee is, if the supporting cast isn't hitting shots, they could be sent home early.
UAB BLAZERS: What the American champions lack in defensive prowess, they attempt to make up for at the other end. The Blazers' best offense is often a missed shot, as they rank among the best in the nation by snagging more than 35% of their misses and getting to the free throw line. At 6-9, 230, Yaxel Lendeborg is a double-double machine (13.8 PPG, 10.5 RPG) and rim protector (2.2 BPG), while point guard Eric Gaines enters the tournament on a heater. He is averaging 17 points, 4 rebounds and 7 assists in his past six games.
X factor: Alejandro Vasquez. His production has been inconsistent at times, but as he showed in the AAC semis and final, his ability to score can be a differentiator for this team.
Upset potential: Medium.
Winner: San Diego State. This is a potential upset, but I believe San Diego State will win. I don't see either team making it past UConn, so if you want to take a flier, pick UAB. It won't hurt you that badly.
No. 4 AUBURN vs. No. 13 YALE
AUBURN TIGERS: Bruce Pearl's team is right with Houston when it comes to leading the nation in "playing hard." The Tigers are deep, versatile, and defend with their hair on fire, Auburn is one of only four teams that rank in the top 15 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. While this is not a great shooting team, Auburn can make shots, with seven players hitting 20 or more 3s on the season, paced by freshman Aden Holloway with 50. The key to the Tigers is Johni Broome, the lefty big man from Morehead State who is among the best scorers and rebounders in the SEC, and Jaylin Williams, one of the most improved players in the country. Broome seems deliberate but has great post moves and incredible strength around the basket. Williams is an efficient scorer, and when he makes his first 2, look out.
X factor: Chad Baker-Mazara. The transfer from Duquesne and San Diego State has been an effective and versatile defender while also adding scoring and getting to the foul line.
Upset potential: Low. Auburn plays so hard and defends and rebounds offensively at such a high level, it will take a great effort to beat the Tigers in the first round.
YALE BULLDOGS: The Ivy League champion is balanced and it believes. This team can win a game in the NCAA tournament. Yale features five guys averaging double-figure scoring and two shooters in John Poulakidas and August Mahoney, both of whom have hit more than 65 3-pointers. The Elis are powered by Danny Wolf, a 7-foot sophomore who averaged fewer than three points per game last season. The first-team All-Ivy Leaguer leads the team in points (14.5 per game), rebounds (9.7) and blocked shots (1.3).
X factor: Bez Mbeng. A two-time Ivy League Defensive Player of the Year, the 6-4 wing can guard multiple positions and leads Yale in steals (1.9 per game).
Upset potential: Medium.
Winner: Auburn. While Yale can play and is a tough out, Auburn has not shown to be vulnerable to teams like the Elis. Take Auburn.
No. 6 BYU vs. No. 11 DUQUESNE
BYU COUGARS: The Cougars are really, really good. In its first season in the Big 12, BYU was simply fantastic. This is a terrific offensive team with great shooting, cutting and passing. BYU plays "five out" spread offense that puts defenders and opposing big guys in tough positions. BYU has seven players who had hit 27 or more 3-point field goals heading into the Big 12 tournament, and five players who had hit 40 or more. Trevin Knell is one of the best shooters in the country, and BYU's best player, Jason Robinson is the leading scorer, yet comes off the bench. BYU hits more than 11 3s per game and outrebounds its opponents by an average of 6.7 per game.
X factor: Fousseyni Traore. He is a strong, sturdy big man who can score, rebound and pass. He is capable of going for 20 or more, which he has done multiple times. In fact, nine different Cougars have hit the 20-point mark in a game this year. This team is balanced and capable.
Upset potential: The Cougars can upset a bigger big shot but will be beaten by a little guy only if they don't shoot it well. With so many shooters, someone is usually hitting.
DUQUESNE DUKES: The Atlantic 10 champs got off to an 0-5 start in conference play, but they finished with a flourish by winning 14 of their final 17 games against league foes, including in the A-10 tourney. The backcourt of Dae Dae Grant and Jimmy Clark III carries the mail for the Dukes. They combine for 32 points per game and don't come off the court much. Keith Dambrot's team hangs its hat on defense and grit, as Duquesne has held five of its past seven opponents to 60 points or fewer.
X factor: The frontcourt. While the star guards do the heavy lifting, whether the Dukes can pull an upset may depend on the contributions they get from the rotation of active bigs, particularly on the defensive glass.
Upset potential: Medium.
WINNER: BYU. This game is a nooner on Thursday in Omaha. Early games seem to provide more upsets. Because the Cougars put up points in a hurry, I like BYU in this one. Duquesne can defend, but BYU's five-out offense is a lot to deal with.
No. 3 ILLINOIS vs. No. 14 MOREHEAD STATE
ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI: The Illini are one of the truly interesting teams in the field: Talented, versatile and with elite scoring ability. But like a few high-scoring squads in the top five seed lines, the Illinois defense is inconsistent. Illinois is among the nation's top 5 offensive teams but rated just outside the top 100 in defense. Like Alabama, Baylor and Kentucky, that is a wide gap and concerning when gauging championship or Final Four potential. Let's start with the truly positive -- Illinois can score with anyone. Behind Terrence Shannon Jr. and Marcus Domask, the Illini have two players who can get you 30 or more ... in the same game. Shannon Jr. is a downhill driver and transition threat who is dynamic with an aggressive playing style. He has vastly improved his 3-point shooting and shoots a ton of free throws. Domask, the transfer from Southern Illinois, is a midrange and back-down specialist. Quincy Guerrier and Luke Goode help stretch the floor, and both are very effective 3-point threats. The downsides for Illinois are the lack of a true point guard and the defensive swings. But the Illini can rebound and do a pretty decent job of taking care of the ball.
X factor: Coleman Hawkins. The 6-10 point forward is a playmaker who has taken on more of a scoring role. In a given game, Hawkins can get a triple-double because he has that kind of versatility and ability. He is also a versatile defender who can switch onto a point guard and stay in front of him. Hawkins is an NBA player.
Upset potential: Medium. Against a ball-control team that can control tempo and hit shots, Illinois can get clipped. But the Illini would have to participate in their own loss.
MOREHEAD STATE EAGLES: The Ohio Valley Conference champions have set a school record for wins (26) in a season thanks to a real-life Roy Hobbs. Riley Minix, a former NAIA All-American playing his first season in Division I, is the Roy Hobbs of college hoops and now the OVC Player of the Year. Minix averages almost 21 points and 10 rebounds per game and has averaged close to 24 points over his past four games. This is nothing new for Minix, who has been a lead dog his entire career, scoring over 2,000 points and grabbing over 1,000 rebounds for the Southeastern Fire as a two-time conference player of the year. Minix can drill 3s, post you up, and has made more field goals than any player in Division I this year. Drew Thelwell drops the dimes (6.3 assists, ninth in the nation) and Kalil Thomas hits the bombs (103 3-point FGM on 43% shooting) to complement Minix. The best offensive and defensive team in the OVC, Morehead State played Indiana to a 1-point game in Assembly Hall. The team drops in over nine 3-point field goals per game and outrebounds opponents by over nine boards per game.
X factor: Jordan Lathon. The UTEP and Milwaukee transfer is second to Minix and Kalil Thomas in 3-point field goals made (63) and has 30 points against Indiana, hitting 6 of 10 from deep.
Upset potential: Medium. This team is very good, and should not be overlooked. Morehead State has a proud tradition, and when you set a wins record, opponents should pay attention. This team will grind it out and control the tempo. Morehead State is a tough out.
WINNER: Illinois. This game is in Omaha at 3:10 p.m. ET on Thursday. The Illini are starting to really click with Terrence Shannon Jr. back in the fold. Unless Illinois struts into the game, this should be an Illinois win.
No. 7 WASHINGTON STATE vs. No. 10 DRAKE
WASHINGTON STATE COUGARS: The Cougars have been a revelation. Low expectations have been wildly exceeded, especially considering the youth and inexperience in Pullman. Washington State is solid in almost every area of play, and Isaac Jones is an athletic presence around the rim. Freshman Myles Rice is better than advertised, and Jaylen Wells and Andrej Jakimovski can both shoot it, hitting over 60 3-point field goals each. With two wins over Arizona, this team has proved capable.
X factor: Isaac Jones. This powerful, bouncy athlete is a handful, and he is among the top finishers in the country.
Upset potential: Medium. Capable team with a good chance to win a first-round game.
DRAKE BULLDOGS: The Missouri Valley Conference champion took out favorite Indiana State in the MVC final behind another stellar performance from Tucker DeVries. Four different Bulldogs have hit 42 or more 3-point field goals, led by DeVries with 84 and Atin Wright with 60. Overall, Drake shoots a solid 37% from deep and hits almost nine 3s per game. DeVries is the whole ballgame and the best player in the MVC. He averages almost 22 points per game and leads Drake in rebounding, assists and steals. He is the real deal.
X factor: Wright. The Cal State Northridge transfer from Hawthorne, California, is the second-leading scorer, best 3-point shooter and a great complement to DeVries. Wright scored 20 points against Bradley to put Drake in the MVC title game. Wright was All-CIF in high school, and you have to be elite to garner All-CIF honors.
Upset potential: Medium. When you have a star like DeVries, you can do great things. DeVries is a star.
Winner: Drake. DeVries is a great player, and this smells like an upset. Plus, I don't like either team to get past Iowa State.
No. 2 IOWA STATE vs. No. 15 SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
IOWA STATE CYCLONES: The Cyclones are a terror on the defensive end. And, if the NCAA tournament were played in Hilton Coliseum, Iowa State would be the national champion. That arena is one of the toughest places for an opponent to win in all of basketball, let alone college basketball. Iowa State has a team full of tough and gritty competitors who are willing to do dirty work to win. Seven different Cyclones have scored 20 or more points in a game, so you don't always know which players to key upon. The most consistent leaders are guards Tamin Lipsey and Keshon Gilbert. Lipsey is an Ames local kid who now ranks among the nation's most reliable point guards and is a fantastic defender in addition to leading the team in assists and steals. Gilbert, who transferred from UNLV, is the leading scorer and second in assists and steals to Lipsey. Both Lipsey and Gilbert are excellent guard rebounders, as well. Milan Momcilovic is a skilled shooter who hit the game winner against Houston. Iowa State forces a turnover on more than 25% of opponent possessions and has a turnover margin of +6.8, second in the nation to Houston.
X factor: Curtis Jones. Nicknamed "Cujo," which scares the crap out of me, Jones is a double-figure scorer, leads the team in 3-point field goals made, and is third in steals. Jones, who comes off the bench, has been at his best in Big 12 games.
Upset potential: Medium. Iowa State will lock you down, but if an opponent does not fuel the Cyclones with turnovers, Iowa State is not a great offensive team. The Cyclones' defense is second in the nation to Houston, but the offense is rated outside of the top 60.
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE JACKRABBITS: The Summit League champion was the best team in the league all season, and played UCF, Akron and George Mason to close losses early on. While the Jackrabbits have lost a dozen games and are rated outside the top 100 in the metrics, this is a solid team. South Dakota State is led by Zeke Mayo, the Summit League Player of the Year, who averages 21 points per game and led the league with 77 3-point field goals.
X factor: William Kyle III. Kyle is the leading rebounder, top shot-blocker and the Summit League Defensive Player of the Year. Kyle is an above-the-rim finisher and lob threat and shoots over 62% from 2-point range.
Upset potential: Low. South Dakota State is a good team and has won eight straight, but the glass could be the difference.
Winner: Iowa State. The Cyclones can have some offensive droughts, but the defense carries the day in games like this one. Iowa State has a Final Four feel.
Second round
No. 1 UCONN vs. No. 8 FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Winner: Connecticut. The Owls have an elite offense. UConn has an elite offense and defense. UConn's size will make the difference.
No. 4 AUBURN vs. No. 5 SAN DIEGO STATE
Winner: Auburn. The Tigers are too tough, and tough on both ends. San Diego State does not score easily, and is unlikely to do so against Auburn. Coach Bruce Pearl should have his team prepared in a short time frame.
No. 3 ILLINOIS vs. No. 6 BYU
Winner: Illinois. This will be a challenge for the Illini, but because of versatility and the ability to isolate BYU defenders, I like Illinois in this one.
No. 2 IOWA STATE vs. No. 10 DRAKE
Winner: Iowa State. Des Moines versus Ames. Ames wins.
Sweet 16
No. 1 UCONN vs. No. 4 AUBURN
Winner: Connecticut. This will be the Huskies' biggest challenge, and a potential upset. Pearl with prep time is no joke. Still, take UConn.
No. 2 IOWA STATE vs. No. 3 ILLINOIS
Winner: Illinois. Iowa State is the better defensive team, but Illinois has so many varied threats on offense. I like Illinois here, but it is more of a matchup feeling. If the officials allow it to get physical, Iowa State will win. Because I think UConn beats either team, a mistake here isn't fatal to the bracket.
Elite Eight
No. 1 UCONN vs. No. 3 ILLINOIS
Winner: Connecticut. With the Huskies' size and a difficult offense to guard, I like UConn. This may require lucky underwear, socks and a lid. Whether Iowa State or Illinois advances to this game, UConn is the best team.
Final Four
No. 1 UCONN vs. No. 2 ARIZONA
Winner: Connecticut. The Huskies are the best team and the toughest team.
No. 1 HOUSTON vs. No. 1 PURDUE
Winner: Purdue. I admit, Purdue can scare you when advancing them through the bracket. Still, it takes a lot to beat Purdue, and no No. 1 seed has a better path to Phoenix.
National championship
No. 1 UCONN vs. No. 1 PURDUE
Winner: UConn. I get it -- what are the chances we get two No. 1 seeds against each other for the title? In a year when we are expecting chaos, maybe UConn taking on Purdue is chaos. I like UConn to cut the nets down again.