Each week in the NFL is its own story -- full of surprises, both positive and negative -- and fantasy football managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true ... don't be surprised!
NOTE: All mention of fantasy points is for PPR formats, unless otherwise mentioned.
Seven fantasy football weeks are complete and for some/many of you, that means half the fantasy regular season is over. Yeah, it goes quickly. Typically, in this space, we lead into each weekend discussing potential surprises and the impact in fantasy. This week, at the season midpoint, we thought we would discuss what has already surprised us, and perhaps what it all means.
I am surprised that ...
Christian McCaffrey is handling ridiculous volume: McCaffrey famously suited up in only four games last season, and it was hardly the first time he missed significant time during a season. The San Francisco 49ers traded for Brian Robinson Jr., presumably to ease McCaffrey's workload. Instead, McCaffrey ranks third in the NFL -- not just among RBs, but everyone -- with 53 receptions while still leading everyone in rushing attempts, and he is pacing to more than 400 touches and perhaps a career high. He could shatter the league mark for running back receiving yards, too.
Look, nobody wants McCaffrey to break again, but ... can we view all this as irresponsible? Perhaps I am alone for this one: I would consider a trade for fantasy -- two good players for one? -- before something goes awry. And let's not gloss over the 49ers being on bye in Week 14, the first playoff week for many (49ers, New England Patriots, New York Giants, Carolina Panthers). It is nearly November, hardly too early to plan for December.
Patrick Mahomes is also the most valuable rusher among QBs: Where did this come from? And perhaps this is a bit irresponsible, too? OK, so the Chiefs have lacked a relevant running attack, but permitting Mahomes to risk his body in this manner, while he paces for career highs in rushing attempts, yards and TDs in his age-30 season, is scary, even as we enjoy the points. Mahomes has Josh Allen-like running stats. It is wild! I still feel like it will not continue, even as fantasy investors love this. In this case, trading Mahomes in fantasy feels unnecessary, as perhaps he makes up those points with passing numbers with Rashee Rice back in play.
Saquon Barkley is averaging 3.3 yards per rush: McCaffrey and Barkley led my "Do Not Draft" list and, full disclosure, I lack shares in either star. I appear very wrong about McCaffrey, but I didn't see this coming for Barkley. He surpassed 2,000 rushing yards last season and this season is on pace to fall (way) short of 1,000. That would be unprecedented for a healthy player. The Eagles' offensive line, the league's most decorated for years, is struggling for sure, and people whine about the playcalling and other things, but Barkley needs to own some of this. I thought he would miss games with injury (like McCaffrey) but rush for 1,200 or so yards, not enter Week 8 with a season-longest rush of 18 yards. He is not an RB1 option at this point, whereas several other NFC East RBs (rookie Cam Skattebo, the truly surprising Javonte Williams) are. Things don't have to improve. I would be wary of trading for Barkley.
Daniel Dopp says Saquon Barkley's been fantasy football's biggest bust after seven weeks of the season.
A.J. Brown is acting like Terrell Owens: Perhaps it's just a wide receiver thing, but it is hard to believe one of the other best players on the defending Super Bowl champions not only is being underutilized to this degree (Jerry Jeudy, two rookies and two tight ends have more targets), but also keeps sending controversial, cryptic messages on social media, inviting discussion of his unhappiness and potential exit. Concrete data might not exist, but it feels like whiny wide receivers eventually get what they want in targets and/or financial reward, but trading for any Eagles player feels perilous. It is likewise surprising that WR DeVonta Smith -- talented, but c'mon -- leads Eagles flex options in PPR points, and that might continue.
Geno Smith has been this terrible: I didn't want to admit during last season's inconsistent mire of play that's Smith magical 2022 season (he was fifth in QB fantasy scoring) was clearly aberrant. Wrong! Today, I can't believe Smith, with a league-leading 10 interceptions (tied with Tua Tagovailoa), is still starting. "Offensive genius" Chip Kelly can't fix this? He can't get rookie Ashton Jeanty going? Smith continues to struggle, while the Jets' Justin Fields, with nary an interception this season, is benched and run out of town. I would take Raiders backup Kenny Pickett over Jets fill-in Tyrod Taylor in fantasy, if that matters to anyone.
Trevor Lawrence has been this terrible: Smith is 35, and he wasn't once upon a time the No. 1 pick in the draft. Lawrence is 26 and was. Yes, I thought a new Jaguars regime and drafting Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter would return Lawrence to QB1 territory (like Smith, also in 2022). However, Lawrence is completing merely 58.7% of passes, which is hard to do with good options. Russell Wilson and 31 other qualified QBs are doing better. It looks unlikely that Hunter will catch 75 passes or approach 1,000 yards, and star Brian Thomas Jr. has unfathomably caught fewer than half his targets and done little with the successful ones. I suppose we must be optimistic that things improve after the bye. Lawrence has hit 20 PPR points once, thanks to a pair of rushing scores.
Marvin Harrison Jr. still looks this ordinary: As with Barkley, this can't all be the fault of others, in this case underwhelming QB Kyler Murray and the playcalling. Harrison, the No. 4 pick in the 2024 NFL draft, should be doing what former Ohio State teammate Emeka Egbuka is doing for the Buccaneers. Instead, Harrison averages barely 10 PPR points per game, even worse than last season. I would trade for Jacksonville's Thomas before presuming Harrison approaches WR2 status. Dynasty league managers shouldn't have had to worry about Harrison, but here we are.
Mike Evans (clavicle) will finally fall short of 1,000 receiving yards: Well, I am surprised and sad that Evans, so consistent and productive since the Reagan administration, finally suffered a major injury that ruins this achievement from his first 11 seasons. Evans is tough to replace. Adding a fellow named Tez isn't the same thing, and while I keep singing the praises of QB Baker Mayfield, now might not be the time to invest.
Everyone doubted Sam Darnold -- again: OK, so I didn't exactly rank Darnold as a safe QB2 option before the season myself, but in a similar vein to Mayfield, it is never too late to become a valuable fantasy QB, regardless of unique path. I'm always the one saying, "Well, why can't this player thrive again?" Darnold is certainly competent and fully capable of supporting the league's first 2,000-yard WR (Jaxon Smith-Njigba). Meanwhile, the Vikings still don't know what J.J. McCarthy is, and while I don't doubt their honesty about his ankle injury, it feels like they are making excuses to keep using inconsistent veteran Carson Wentz. Who expected that?
Field Yates breaks down Daniel Jones' strong fantasy performance and outlook for the remainder of the season.
Everyone doubted Daniel Jones -- again: The same organization that thought Anthony Richardson Sr. was good has turned Jones around. I figured the only way Jones could be a top-10 QB again (as he was in 2022) was with a hearty number or rushing yards. Jones isn't running so much (83 yards, though he does have four rushing TDs). Russell Wilson has more rushing yards. Yes, again with Russell Wilson. How is Wilson not starting for another franchise by now? Anyway, good for Jones. I was on board with Jones resurrecting his career, and I am usually open to the possibility when a player, regardless of sport, really, shows potential for a rebound, but nobody saw this coming. It seems to occur more in fantasy football than other sports.