Welcome to The Playbook for Week 8, which kicks off Thursday with the Vikings at the Chargers.
This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
Additionally, we have folded the Shadow Reports, previously a separate column, into the game-by-game breakdowns here. Using our play-by-play data, we're able to identify defensive schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best projections, rankings, sit/start advice and waiver wire suggestions each week.
If you want a more detailed look at some of this data, be sure to check out the weekly Shadow Reports: WR vs. CB Cheat Sheet.
All of this advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I'll often mention "shallow" or "deep" leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. "Matchup" is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
(Editor's note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)
MIN-LAC | MIA-ATL | CHI-BAL | BUF-CAR | NYJ-CIN | SF-HOU | CLE-NE
NYG-PHI | TB-NO | DAL-DEN | TEN-IND | GB-PIT | WAS-KC
Minnesota Vikings @ Los Angeles Chargers
Projected score: Chargers 24, Vikings 23
Lineup locks: Jordan Mason, Justin Jefferson, Quentin Johnston, Keenan Allen, Ladd McConkey, Jordan Addison
Fantasy scoop: This past Sunday, Oronde Gadsden II exploded for seven catches, 164 yards and one TD on a career-high nine targets. The fifth-round rookie didn't play in Weeks 1-2 but has seen his snap share increase in each of the past five weeks and now suddenly finds himself on the fantasy radar. Gadsden has reached seven targets in three of his five NFL games and has eight-plus targets, seven catches and 68-plus yards in two consecutive outings.
The Chargers have plenty of mouths to feed in the passing game, but Gadsden has quickly established himself as a priority target alongside Johnston, Allen and McConkey. There's some risk here (Sunday marked his first career game over 11.8 fantasy points), but with six teams on a bye and having seen 17 targets over the past two weeks, the rookie is a fine TE streamer.
Over/under: 47 (7th highest)
Win probability: Chargers 51% (Lowest)
Miami Dolphins @ Atlanta Falcons
Projected score: Falcons 25, Dolphins 18
Lineup locks: Bijan Robinson, De'Von Achane, Drake London, Jaylen Waddle
Shadow Report: We're downgrading Waddle and the Miami receivers against a man-heavy Atlanta defense that has been tough on receivers. Atlanta has surrendered the second-fewest fantasy points to receivers, including the fifth fewest to the perimeter and fewest to the slot. The Falcons have surrendered the second-fewest yards to the position, and only two wideouts have reached 12 fantasy points against them. Waddle should remain in lineups, but Miami's secondary receivers should be avoided.
Shadow Report: Rasul Douglas is a candidate to shadow London this week. Miami's top corner traveled with Garrett Wilson in Week 4 (Wilson scored 20.2 points in the game) and Tetairoa McMillan in Week 5 (10.2) but didn't travel full-time against the Chargers or Browns the past two weeks -- although he did spend some time following Jerry Jeudy early on last week. Miami hasn't allowed much to opposing receivers this season, though that's a product of game script (second-fewest WR targets and lowest WR yardage allowed), not good efficiency (highest pass EPA allowed). London may not see a big target number if Atlanta leads throughout, but he has the matchup edge and remains a solid WR1.
Over/under: 43.1 (11th highest)
Win probability: Falcons 73% (4th highest)
New York Jets @ Cincinnati Bengals
Projected score: Bengals 24, Jets 22
Lineup locks: Breece Hall, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins
Shadow Report: This game will feature one of the most intriguing WR vs. CB showdowns of the season: Sauce Gardner (if he clears concussion protocol) shadowing Chase. Gardner has already traveled with DK Metcalf (12.3 fantasy points in the game), Mike Evans (13.3), George Pickens (13.7), Courtland Sutton (2.7) and Tetairoa McMillan (6.3) this season, which works out to 9.7 fantasy PPG. Gardner is one of the best in the business and has clearly slowed top receivers, but New York has struggled against the pass overall (fifth-highest EPA allowed), which has led to secondary receivers in the games Sauce has shadowed (Ryan Flournoy, Calvin Austin III, Emeka Egbuka and, most recently, Xavier Legette) emerging as the only receivers to score 14-plus fantasy points against the Jets. Speaking of which ...
Fantasy scoop: Higgins exploded for a 6-96-1 receiving line on 10 targets during the Bengals' Week 7 win over the Steelers. He posted season highs across the board, which included his first game over 14.6 fantasy points this season. Coupled with a 5-62-0 showing on eight targets in Week 6, the big game is reason for optimism that Higgins can retain WR3 value as long as Joe Flacco is under center. With Gardner on Chase this week, Higgins gets a boost in value against Brandon Stephens and should be upgraded. Note that, if Gardner is sidelined, both Chase and Higgins should be upgraded.
Over/under: 45.8 (9th highest)
Win probability: Bengals 56% (9th highest)
Cleveland Browns @ New England Patriots
Projected score: Patriots 24, Browns 14
Lineup locks: Quinshon Judkins, Stefon Diggs
Fantasy scoop: Rhamondre Stevenson is a tricky evaluation. On one hand, he's New England's clear top back, having played over 70% of the snaps in back-to-back games, and he's cleared 14.5 fantasy points in two of the past three weeks, scoring two TDs during the span. On the other hand, Stevenson's two biggest games have come in his two easiest matchups (21.2 points against Miami in Week 2 and 16.8 vs. Tennessee in Week 7) and he's otherwise averaging just 6.2 points per game. Additionally, he hasn't cleared two targets in any game since Week 3 and has a total of only 16 receiving yards during the four-game span.
This week, Stevenson draws a Cleveland defense that has allowed the fewest yards and fantasy points to running backs. In fact, only one RB has even cleared 13.1 points against the Browns and that was a 17.7-point effort by Jahmyr Gibbs in Week 4. Stevenson is on the RB2 radar with six teams on a bye, but there's big bust risk here.
Over/under: 38.5 (Lowest)
Win probability: Patriots 82% (2nd highest)
New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles
Projected score: Eagles 26, Giants 23
Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, Cam Skattebo, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Wan'Dale Robinson, Dallas Goedert
Fantasy scoop: After accounting for exactly two touchdowns in each of his first three NFL starts, Jaxson Dart produced four (three passing, one rushing) in Denver on Sunday. Dart also had a career-high 283 passing yards, though his 11 rushing yards were a far cry from the 50-plus he had produced in his first three games. Nonetheless, Dart is playing fairly well and has delivered three top-10 fantasy outings in four tries, including top-three showings each of the past two weeks.
Dart isn't yet a weekly QB1, but he's a streaming option during bye weeks. Consider him a fringe starter this week against an Eagles defense that has allowed only seven passing TDs (fifth fewest) this season. Dart put up 23.6 points against the Eagles two weeks ago, with most of that coming on the ground (a 13-58-1 rushing line).
Shadow Report: Expect Paulson Adebo (if back from a knee injury) to shadow Brown, as he did when these teams met in Week 6. In that game, Adebo aligned against Brown on 24 of his 34 routes, including 21 of 28 on the perimeter and 3 of 6 in the slot. Brown posted a solid 6-80-0 receiving line on nine targets in the game, with most of that damage coming against Adebo. Brown does not need to be downgraded against a defense that has allowed the third-most fantasy points to receivers, surrendering 80-plus yards to both Courtland Sutton and Marvin Mims in Week 7.
Over/under: 49.3 (5th highest)
Win probability: Eagles 61% (6th highest)
Buffalo Bills @ Carolina Panthers
Projected score: Bills 26, Panthers 23
Lineup locks: Josh Allen, James Cook, Tetairoa McMillan
Fantasy scoop: Chuba Hubbard returned from injury on Sunday and Carolina's plan of attack was essentially to rotate drives between him and the red-hot Rico Dowdle. When all was said and done, Hubbard (who started) totaled 14 carries and three targets on 38 snaps (17 routes), compared to 17 carries and two targets on 32 snaps (nine routes) for Dowdle. Dowdle was more effective, totaling 96 yards on 18 touches, compared to 55 yards on 16 touches for Hubbard.
Game script may not be as kind to the running back duo against Allen & Co. this week, but Buffalo has struggled against RBs, having allowed a league-high 5.4 yards per carry and eight TDs (fourth most) to the position. Dowdle is the preferred RB2 play, but Hubbard is also on the flex radar.
Shadow Report: Expect Christian Benford to shadow McMillan this week. Buffalo's top corner has traveled with Garrett Wilson (9.0 fantasy points in the game), Tyreek Hill (15.9), Chris Olave (11.0) and Drake London (31.8) already this season. Benford hasn't played well enough that we need to be super concerned about this matchup, especially considering London's big game when we last saw Buffalo in action. McMillan doesn't need to be downgraded.
Over/under: 49.1 (6th highest)
Win probability: Bills 58% (8th highest)
Chicago Bears @ Baltimore Ravens
Projected score: Ravens 27, Bears 27
Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, D'Andre Swift, Zay Flowers, Rome Odunze
Fantasy scoop: Kyle Monangai is fresh off a career day in which he ran for 81 yards and a score on 13 carries, adding 13 yards on three targets. The seventh-round rookie produced 17.4 fantasy points after totaling 16.9 combined during his first five NFL games. Despite the big game, Monangai isn't much closer to finding his way into fantasy lineups. Swift, who was also terrific on Sunday, has delivered 138-plus yards and 20-plus fantasy points in consecutive games, and has four TDs in his past five outings.
Monangai's role has increased in recent weeks, but Swift remains Chicago's lead back and the much better fantasy option. Swift is on the RB1 radar against a Baltimore defense that has allowed the second-most fantasy points and TDs (nine) to RBs, whereas Monangai belongs on benches.
Over/under: 54 (Highest)
Win probability: Ravens 53% (11th highest)
San Francisco 49ers @ Houston Texans
Projected Score: Texans 22, 49ers 19
Lineup locks: Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle
Fantasy scoop: Jauan Jennings isn't fully healthy, but the 28-year-old receiver has returned to playing a substantial offensive role. On Sunday night, Jennings played 85% of the 49ers' snaps and handled a season-high 29% target share. The usage produced only 31 yards on four catches, and he's now fallen short of 32 yards and 6.5 fantasy points in four of his five games this season. Jennings did show his upside with a 5-89-1 outing against the Saints in Week 2, but he hasn't had nearly that success with Mac Jones under center.
This week, Jennings should be viewed as a flex option against a Houston defense that has allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points and only three TDs to receivers. Only two WRs (Puka Nacua and Jaxon Smith-Njigba) have reached 14 fantasy points against Houston this season.
Over/under: 41.5 (12th highest)
Win probability: Texans 60% (7th highest)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints
Projected score: Buccaneers 26, Saints 19
Lineup locks: Rachaad White, Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, Emeka Egbuka
Fantasy scoop: After seeing exactly five or six targets in five straight games, Rashid Shaheed matched a season high with nine targets (originally set in Week 1) on Sunday. The usage boost didn't lead to fantasy success, however, as he was held under 55 yards for the sixth time in seven games. Shaheed has at least four catches in every game this season but he's reached 15 fantasy points only twice, both in the weeks he found the end zone. Shaheed's usage is just enough to put him on the WR3 radar against the Bucs this week.
Shadow Report: We're upgrading Tampa Bay's wide receivers against the Saints cornerback room. The Saints are midpack in fantasy points allowed to the position, but that's primarily due to low volume faced. New Orleans has allowed the eighth-highest EPA against the pass and has struggled against the perimeter (eighth-most points allowed). The likes of Egbuka, Tez Johnson and Sterling Shepard can be upgraded against Kool-Aid McKinstry, Alontae Taylor and Quincy Riley.
Over/under: 44.8 (10th highest)
Win probability: Buccaneers 73% (3rd highest)
Dallas Cowboys @ Denver Broncos
Projected score: Broncos 27, Cowboys 26
Lineup locks: Bo Nix, Javonte Williams, J.K. Dobbins, CeeDee Lamb, Courtland Sutton, George Pickens, Jake Ferguson
Fantasy scoop: After a bit of a slow start to the season (only one weekly finish better than 12th), Nix exploded for a position-high 40 points during Sunday's comeback win against the Giants. Nix threw for 279 yards (his second-highest total of the season) and produced four TDs (two passing, two rushing), all in the fourth quarter. The second-year QB now ranks top 12 among QBs in passing attempts, completions, yards and TDs, as well as in rushing attempts, yards and TDs.
Nix's efficiency could be better (6.1 YPA), but he's set up with a terrific Week 8 matchup against a Dallas defense that sits in the top three in passing yards and TDs, rushing yards and TDs and fantasy points allowed to QBs. All seven QBs that have faced Dallas have produced 17.7-plus fantasy points -- and that includes Jayden Daniels, who left injured in Week 7. Nix is a lineup lock.
Shadow Report: This game will feature one of the most intriguing WR vs. CB showdowns of the season: Pat Surtain II shadowing Lamb. Perhaps the league's best corner, Surtain has traveled with Calvin Ridley (6.7 fantasy points in the game), Michael Pittman Jr. (8.0), Quentin Johnston (14.9), Ja'Marr Chase (7.3), A.J. Brown (9.3) and Garrett Wilson (4.3) this season. That works out to 8.4 fantasy PPG.
Denver's overall pass defense has been as good as expected, sitting fourth best in EPA against the pass and having allowed league lows in yards per target (6.1), TDs (one) and fantasy points to WRs. In fact, Denver has yet to allow any receiver to reach 20 fantasy points in a game this season.
Expectations for Lamb should be decreased this week, but he'll get some slot run (Surtain won't cover him on those plays) and remains a must start in all formats. Pickens is in a better spot against Riley Moss, though this is a tough matchup across the board for the Dallas pass offense.
Shadow Report: Upgrade Sutton and Denver's receivers against this Dallas defense. The Cowboys have surrendered the second-most fantasy points and a league-high 12 touchdowns to WRs. The Cowboys seemingly haven't been as bad against receivers in recent weeks, but that's mostly a product of lighter competition (Jets, Panthers and shorthanded Commanders) and they still allowed 17-plus points to Garrett Wilson and Tetairoa McMillan during the span. Sutton gets a boost and secondary Denver receivers Franklin and Mims are sleeper flex options with six teams on a bye.
Over/under: 52.9 (2nd highest)
Win probability: Broncos 56% (10th highest)
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts
Projected score: Colts 32, Titans 15
Lineup locks: Daniel Jones, Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman Jr., Tyler Warren
Fantasy scoop: Jones has thrown exactly two TDs in three consecutive games and has now produced 22-plus fantasy points in four of seven outings this season. Jones has produced through the air (fifth in passing yards with 212-plus in all seven games) and, while his rushing yardage is lacking (83 yards, ranking 20th), he has rushed for four TDs. Though Jones has finished outside the top 10 in fantasy points four of the past five weeks (one of which was against these Titans in Week 3), he should be in lineups this week against a defense that has allowed the seventh-highest pass EPA.
Shadow Report: Believe it or not, the red-hot Colts have allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers this season. Game script is an obvious culprit here (they've led 54% of the time -- second highest -- and have thus faced the third-most WR targets), but they've also been missing top corner Charvarius Ward and sit midpack in EPA against the pass. The Titans have struggled to get much from their receivers (including when none cleared 38 yards when these teams met in Week 3), but Calvin Ridley, Elic Ayomanor & Co. can expect to see a boost in volume this week and can upgraded.
Over/under: 46.9 (8th highest)
Win probability: Colts 96% (Highest)
Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Projected score: Packers 26, Steelers 26
Lineup locks: Josh Jacobs, Jaylen Warren, DK Metcalf, Tucker Kraft
Fantasy scoop: Romeo Doubs has reeled off three consecutive top-30 fantasy outings thanks, in a big part, to a sizable boost in targets. After reaching eight targets in just nine of his first 49 NFL games, Doubs has now hit the mark in three straight. The heavy usage allowed a 6-58-3 receiving line in Week 4 (29.8 fantasy points) but less inspiring (albeit solid) 5-55-0 and 6-72-0 showings over the past two weeks.
Perhaps Doubs is taking his game to the next level in his fourth NFL season, but it's more likely that he reverts back to a bench/depth fantasy option, especially with Christian Watson and Jayden Reed set to return from injury in the near future and with Matthew Golden on the rise. Of course, Doubs has a good matchup this week (the Steelers have allowed the most targets, catches and yards to WRs), so especially with six teams on a bye, he's on the WR3 radar for the time being.
Over/under: 52.4 (3rd highest)
Win probability: Packers 51% (12th highest)
Washington Commanders @ Kansas City Chiefs
Projected score: Chiefs 30, Commanders 20
Lineup locks: Patrick Mahomes, Rashee Rice, Deebo Samuel, Xavier Worthy, Terry McLaurin, Travis Kelce
Fantasy scoop: Worthy is in a bit of a slump since producing 121 yards in his return from injury in Week 4. In three games since that point, he's totaled only 125 yards and one TD, failing to clear 11.1 points in any of the three outings. The 2024 first-round pick didn't see much of a change in playing time with Rice back in the fold on Sunday, but his target share dipped to 12% -- the lowest it has been in a full game since Week 9 of last season.
Three duds in a row is concerning, but it's likely that Worthy will settle in at No. 2 in line for targets in the league's pass-heaviest offense (not to mention one that's scored four TDs in four straight games). Worthy should remain in lineups this week against a Washington defense that sits in the top 10 in yards, TDs and fantasy points allowed to receivers.
Over/under: 50.4 (4th highest)
Win probability: Chiefs 72% (5th highest)