If there's any drawback to a streaming defense strategy, it's the heightened amount of homework that's involved. And we all know that no one likes homework.
Through four weeks, streaming defenses has provided managers who were willing to employ the game plan a huge advantage, as has been increasingly the case in recent seasons. To illustrate, the top-five team defense/special teams in terms of preseason average draft position (ADP) have averaged 6.7 fantasy points per game. By comparison, the collective group of D/STs to face the five most-favorable matchups in this space during the preseason have averaged 9.1.
All that said, things change swiftly in the NFL, perhaps no more so than in the first month of the new season. Matchups that might once have seen strong could have transformed into ones to avoid, and vice versa. As I said, it's more homework.
Fortunately, you've come to the right place. What follows below is my updated D/ST Road Map for Weeks 5-8, spanning the month of October.
Top 10 offenses to exploit
With four weeks of results in the books, here are the 10 offenses that have been the best so far for streaming opposing D/STs:
1. Cleveland Browns: added 8.9 fantasy points, on average, to a D/ST's score
2. Tennessee Titans: +5.4
3. Minnesota Vikings: +5.0
4. Cincinnati Bengals: +4.9
5. Las Vegas Raiders: +3.5
6. New York Jets: +3.1
7. New England Patriots: +2.8
8. New York Giants: +2.3
9. Miami Dolphins: +1.6
10. Carolina Panthers: +1.2
The Vikings and Bengals, as a result of the injuries to their quarterbacks (J.J. McCarthy, Joe Burrow), shot up the list, with the Bengals going from the "avoid" to the "exploit" list. The New Orleans Saints, who were on the preseason top-10 list, are lurking just beneath the cutoff.
Opponents to avoid with D/STs
1. Indianapolis Colts: subtracted 6.5 fantasy points, on average, from a D/ST's score
2. Detroit Lions: minus-4.9
3. Dallas Cowboys: minus-4.1
4. Buffalo Bills: minus-4.0
5. Baltimore Ravens: minus-3.4
6. Washington Commanders: minus-2.5
6. Jacksonville Jaguars: minus-2.3
8. Kansas City Chiefs: minus-2.1
9. Denver Broncos: minus-2.1
10. Chicago Bears: minus-2.0
The Colts?! Believe it, as the Daniel Jones-led offense ranks fourth in points, third in total yards and first in yards per offensive play, though my opinion remains that team-wide regression remains in order. Remember, both Jones and running back Jonathan Taylor have checkered injury histories.
The Philadelphia Eagles (minus-0.7, 17th in that direction), a top-10 member of this list during the preseason, are conspicuously absent, but they're likely to inch back into this group in the coming weeks.
The D/ST to lock in for October: Indianapolis
Speaking of those Colts, they've got one of the most favorable overall October schedules, making their defense, available in nearly 60% of ESPN leagues, one to scoop up and lock in for the next several weeks. Three of the Colts' four October games will be played at home, two of them against the Raiders (Week 5) and Titans (Week 8) from the above list, and the third against an Arizona Cardinals (Week 6) offense that has added 1.1 fantasy points (on average) to opposing D/STs. Only a Week 7 road game against the Los Angeles Chargers (+0.4, 15th) qualifies as a matchups challenge.
Week 5 D/ST streaming recommendations
Cardinals (TEN): They haven't flourished as a streaming D/ST, but a 12-point Week 2 against the Panthers indicates that they can capitalize here, too.
Browns (MIN, in London): It's the second straight overseas game for the Vikings, whose opponent last week, the Pittsburgh Steelers, scored nine fantasy points.
Colts (LV): Get 'em and keep 'em through Week 8.
Start 'em, above 50% rostered: Vikings (@CLE, in London) and Lions (@CIN).
Avoid, among 50%-plus rostered: Houston Texans (@BAL -- though this assumes Lamar Jackson's availability) and Patriots (@BUF).
Week 6 D/ST recommendations
This is not a good week as far as streaming options. But digging deep:
Raiders (TEN): Opponents of the Titans have scored at least nine fantasy points in all four weeks, the only team that can claim that.
Saints (NE): They scored nine and five fantasy points while facing tougher matchups than this one in Weeks 1 and 2 at home.
Start 'em, above 50% rostered: Broncos (@NYJ, in London), Green Bay Packers (CIN), Chargers (@MIA), Steelers (CLE) and Eagles (@NYG, on Thursday).
Avoid, among 50%-plus rostered: Chiefs (DET) and Detroit Lions (@KC).
Week 7 D/ST recommendations
Chiefs (LV): They scored 13 fantasy points facing a similarly soft matchup against the Giants in Week 3.
Browns (MIA): Their defense is one of the Browns' few strong spots, and this is their first remotely favorable matchup all season.
Panthers (@NYJ): They've been a hit-or-miss defense, with 17 fantasy points in Week 3 but minus-2 in Week 4. Still, this is a worthwhile matchup.
Start 'em, above 50% rostered: Eagles (@MIN), Patriots (@TEN), Broncos (NYG) and Steelers (@CIN, on Thursday).
Avoid, among 50%-plus rostered: Chargers (IND).
Week 8 D/ST recommendations
Six teams are on bye.
Colts (TEN): They scored 16 fantasy points in these teams' last meeting in Week 3.
New York Jets (@CIN): Opponents of the Bengals have scored 32 and 10 fantasy points in the two full games that Burrow has missed.
Atlanta Falcons (MIA): They scored 21 fantasy points against the Vikings in Week 2, a similarly strong matchup to this one.
Browns (@NE): Expect a low-scoring, defensively minded game.
Start 'em, above 50% rostered: Patriots (CLE), Chargers (MIN) and Eagles (NYG).
Avoid, among 50%-plus rostered: Broncos (DAL) and Chiefs (WSH, on Monday).
We'll again revisit the D/ST Road Map come the end of October, teeing you up for setting lineups in Weeks 9-12.