Dos and Don'ts for Week 7: How to value David Montgomery, George Pickens, Dolphins WRs

Fantasy football managers overthink just about everything. They often need a calm, measured voice of reason to remind them of what makes sense.

Take a deep breath. It is fantasy football. Make practical decisions on lineups, trades and foods for the tailgating party and things will work out. Try to enjoy the ride. You wouldn't believe the things fantasy managers overthink. Well, you're (presumably) a fantasy manager. OK, so perhaps you would.

Don't assume Jahmyr Gibbs outscores David Montgomery

The Lions, who just piled up 47 points against the embarrassed Cowboys, feature a pair of terrific running backs. Gibbs is the one everyone coveted early in fantasy drafts. The former Alabama player is 22 years old and comes off a rookie season with nearly 1,300 scrimmage yards, 11 TDs and 52 receptions. Montgomery, in his first season after defecting from the Bears, had his own signature season with 13 TD runs, but come on, people just assumed Gibbs was the only one with the bright future. Montgomery went four or five rounds later in average ESPN drafts.

Fast-forward to this week and Montgomery has not only scored 7.3 more PPR points -- granted, it is not much -- but he has out-touched Gibbs, 85 to 80. Is this relevant information? Well, Gibbs is universally rostered and Montgomery, at 94.2%, is not, but in serious leagues, each player is an obvious start. But some view Montgomery, with a rushing touchdown in every game so far, as someone not capable of continuing his success, while Gibbs is the one people seem to target in trades. That might not be correct.

Gibbs caught three passes against Dallas, his first catches since Week 2, and therein lies the reason why their value is considerably closer than most figured. Gibbs is pacing below his rookie reception and target numbers, while Montgomery is on his way to even better rushing numbers than last season. It also seems relevant that Montgomery and the Lions recently committed to a lucrative, two-year contract extension. It's not that Gibbs is a major disappointment, but Montgomery continues to improve at 27. We should focus more on him and perhaps the ESPN Fantasy rankings will reflect that soon. This week, I rank them consecutively.

Two sets of running back team tandems exist with each player among the top 20 PPR RB scorers (the Seahawks RBs are the other ones), and it makes sense that each of these Lions might end up as RB1 options. While many of us wonder if the incredible Derrick Henry of the Ravens can score a touchdown in every game, why can't Montgomery do this as well? The Rams' Kyren Williams is also 5-for-5 when it comes to scoring touchdowns. It is time we view Montgomery similarly to Gibbs, each as a borderline RB1.

One more Lions note: Last season, Jared Goff attempted 605 passes, and nearly one-third (31%) of them went to Gibbs and rookie TE Sam LaPorta. This season, Goff is attempting considerably fewer passes per game (from 35.5 to 29.8) and he is throwing far more to wide receivers Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams, as they enjoy 47% of the targets. We should not assume Gibbs -- or the physically compromised LaPorta (16th at TE in PPR scoring) -- suddenly see larger receiving roles.

Do expect better performance from George Pickens

The Steelers were always going to turn to conventional QB Russell Wilson at some point, as they promised him the opportunity months ago. Good for Justin Fields, though. He kind of resurrected his career as capable of avoiding turnovers (only two in six games, who knew?), but then again, who are we kidding? Fields provided fantasy value with his legs, to nobody's surprise. He rushed for five touchdowns the past four games. He wasn't a good quarterback, though, completing fewer than 60% of his passes the past two games. There was nowhere for this offense to go with him. Just trade Fields to the Raiders and let him run around for 25 fantasy points per game, please. Fields highlights a major difference between reality and fantasy.

Wilson probably will not be a good -- or shall we say, consistently good -- fantasy quarterback, or as valuable as Fields was because he isn't piling on points with his legs, but let's not be so pessimistic about this move, either. The Steelers won four of six games because they are well-coached, they play excellent defense and their quarterback didn't hurt them. Stop giving Fields so much credit. Wilson is the better, far more accurate quarterback, and Pickens is arguably the signature buy-low WR out there for fantasy. He ranks third among all WRs in percentage of team targets (28.9% as compared to 21.9% last season when Diontae Johnson was there), but his QB wasn't giving him much of a chance. That changes now.

Pickens caught 1,140 yards worth of passes last season (with five touchdowns) from the future Hall of Fame crew of Kenny Pickett, Mason Rudolph and Mitchell Trubisky. Again, Wilson is an obvious upgrade. This is not the Wilson from his Super Bowl salad days, but he still throws an accurate deep pass, and while the Steelers should remain a run-first outfit, they will allow Wilson to throw to the perimeter and downfield. There will be interceptions and sacks, and everyone will call for Fields again, but this is no contest. Wilson gives the Steelers' offense a better chance. Even at 35, he boasts more upside as a "quarterback." This is a good move for the Steelers, and their top WR.