Every Thursday, we look at the offensive trends across the league, focusing on the impact it has on fantasy football. And this was a pretty busy week, right?
Two veteran wide receivers were traded, which will boost their new respective pass games. Plenty to talk about there. But there's more, as the Chiefs might have a target for Patrick Mahomes to fill the void left by the injured Rashee Rice, and we'll look at four running backs who are knocking on the door, waiting for that opportunity to see their roles increase.
Chase Brown's playmaking upside
Brown has scored at least 14 fantasy points in three straight games, with at least one touchdown in two of them. While I would really like to see Brown's receiving usage increase, as he averaged 14.4 yards per screen reception in 2023, it's pretty clear that he has more playmaking upside than Zack Moss. This season, 19.6% of Brown's carries have resulted in 10 or more yards, compared to 7.9% for Moss. And that tracks, as Brown has more short-area speed, with the contact balance to get through the second-level wash. I see Brown as the Bengals running back to roster moving forward. And if you want to extend a trade offer for Brown, it's good time to buy low.
Jayden Reed's deployment in the Packers' offense
Given the depth of the Green Bay wide receiver room, Reed isn't going to be a 12-targets-a-game guy in Matt LaFleur's offense. However, he's still cashing in here. Reed, who is seeing 5.7 targets per game this season, has posted double-digit fantasy production in five out of six weeks, including two with 27 points or more. Reed has also logged at least one rushing attempt per game, as the Packers are willing to manufacture touches for him. Plus, with a route tree that features catch-and-run throws and screens for Reed, 48.9% of his receiving yards have come after the catch. Despite his lower target volume, Reed's fit in LaFleur's system creates fantasy scoring opportunities. That's why I have Reed ranked as a midtier WR2 for this week's game versus the Texans.
Joe Mixon's RB1 ceiling
An ankle injury has limited Mixon to only three games played this season, but he has scored 26 or more points in his two full games, including the 27.2 he dropped on the Patriots' defense last week. Mixon should be viewed as a foundational member of the Texans' offense, a volume runner with scoring upside. Mixon had 18 touches in that Patriots game, with one rushing score and a receiving touchdown on a schemed red zone throw. With an average of 18.3 carries per game, which gives the Texans the offensive balance they want in the call sheet, Mixon has RB1 upside again this week.
Davante Adams' arrival in New York
Adams, a declining blue-chipper, should be viewed as a lower-tier WR2 as he gets settled in New York, with Aaron Rodgers now throwing him the ball. But his arrival does create some fantasy fallout for the Jets' receivers. Garrett Wilson, who has seen 23 targets over his past two games -- with at least 24 fantasy points in each -- will still produce some WR1 weeks. But we have to expect his target share to diminish, which will drop him down into the WR2 ranks. Allen Lazard has posted five games of double-digit points this season. However, there's only one football here, and that will limit Lazard's ability to crack lineups moving forward. Did the Jets get better? For sure. But for Wilson and Lazard managers, the trade for Adams stings a bit.
Amari Cooper gives Josh Allen a boost in Buffalo
Cooper looked frustrated, and sometimes disinterested, in a subpar Browns pass game with Deshaun Watson under center, and he averaged just 10.2 fantasy PPG. However, this trade makes sense for the Bills and Allen, as they needed a perimeter target who can make himself available to the quarterback at a consistent rate. Cooper is still a high-level route runner, and he gives the Bills playmaking ability at all three levels of the field. That's a boost for Allen, who has thrown for more than 200 yards in only three of six games this season. Expect those numbers to rise once Cooper adjusts to the Buffalo offense.
Tony Pollard's fantasy relevance
The subpar play from quarterback Will Levis has really limited the Titans' pass game. It's a rough watch, especially for Calvin Ridley managers. Ridley didn't have a single catch last week -- on eight targets! Not good. But that brings us back to Pollard, whom I see as the only Titans player you can count on from a fantasy perspective. Pollard is averaging 15.2 PPG, and he has separated himself from Tyjae Spears in the Titans backfield. Pollard is seeing 18.8 touches per game this season, compared to just 7.0 for Spears. Pollard is playing faster, too. We can see that with our eyes. And when I look at Pollard's usage, along with the steady production, he's an easy start at the flex spot in my lineup.
Drake Maye elevates the Patriots' pass game
With just one career start under his belt, we have an extremely small sample size on Maye. However, with Maye's aggressive throwing mentality, plus his ability to use his legs, I see a Patriots offense that simply has more juice compared with when Jacoby Brissett was running the show. Maye completed 20 of 33 passes for 243 yards versus the Texans in Week 6, and he did toss three touchdowns (albeit along with three turnovers). With a very positive Week 7 matchup against the Jaguars in London, I see more upside for WR DeMario Douglas and TE Hunter Henry, even if Maye makes some poor decisions with the ball.
JuJu Smith-Schuster's role in Kansas City
The last time we saw Smith-Schuster, back in Week 5, he caught seven of eight targets for 130 yards in the win over the Saints (20.0 points). Is it time to add Smith-Schuster to the roster? Maybe. Remember, with Rice down with a knee injury, Smith-Schuster is more than willing to work the heavy traffic areas of the field, and he has the play strength to produce after the catch. That's a critical role in the Chiefs' offense on underneath and middle-of-the-field throws for Mahomes. If you play in a shallower league, keep Smith-Schuster on the radar for now. In deeper leagues of 12 or more teams, however, Smith-Schuster has streaming value for Sunday's game against the 49ers.
Opportunity knocks?
This group of running backs is primed to take a step forward, but they need some doors to open -- or stay open -- first.
Tyrone Tracy Jr., New York Giants: The rookie got the start in the past two games for the Giants, averaging 18.3 fantasy PPG. He's playing good football, with the vision and contact balance to create his own daylight as a runner, plus the receiving skills (six receptions, 57 yards in Week 6). Tracy has the look of a lead back in a pro offense. Look, I think Tracy should be the starter here, but we have to see how this backfield dynamic works with Devin Singletary expected to return this week versus Philly.
Ray Davis, Buffalo Bills: Davis stepped in for an injured James Cook in the Monday night win over the Jets, and he responded with 152 yards from scrimmage on 23 touches in his first pro start. Davis runs behind his pads and gets on a north/south track, and he can impact the passing game (three receptions, 55 yards). When Cook returns, we know he is the No. 1 in Buffalo, but Davis has shown he belongs, too.
Sean Tucker, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: With Rachaad White down last week, Tucker split touches with Bucky Irving in the win over the Saints and was second among all players with 34.2 fantasy points in Week 6. Tucker had 192 scrimmage yards on 17 touches (which included six rushes of 10 or more yards) and scored two touchdowns. I thought Tucker was very decisive with the ball. A lot of gap schemes to give him a defined path, too. Tucker might not be more than a rotational back with either White or Irving, but there is upside here to monitor.
D'Ernest Johnson, Jacksonville Jaguars: Travis Etienne Jr. left the Week 6 loss to the Bears with a hamstring injury, and that allowed Johnson to see an increase in snaps and touches as he shared the backfield workload with Tank Bigsby. Johnson carried the ball six times for 28 yards, and he added two catches for 16 yards. We have to go back some years here, but Johnson did average 5.3 yards per carry in 2021 with the Browns, and he is more than capable of playing a lead role as a downhill runner. Keep him on the fantasy radar in deeper leagues.