Fantasy football managers overthink just about everything. They often need a calm, measured voice of reason to remind them what makes sense.
Take a deep breath. It is fantasy football. Make practical decisions on lineups, trades and foods for the tailgating party and things will work out. Try to enjoy the ride. You wouldn't believe the things fantasy managers overthink. Well, you're (presumably) a fantasy manager. OK, so perhaps you would.
Don't overthink whether to play Bengals WR Ja'Marr Chase and/or 49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk and others of their news-making ilk: These fellows had noteworthy, occasionally controversial, summers while chasing shiny new contracts, but there is ample reason these talented players -- and their management -- felt safe acting this way.
They were always going to play. Le'Veon Bell once held out and ruined his career, but everyone learned a lesson from that silly drama. Chase and Aiyuk didn't do that. Nor did Cowboys CeeDee Lamb (paid) and Dak Prescott (well, not yet). Doesn't matter. They're all playing, and anyone debating how little practice time and workouts they had is missing the point. You're not sitting these fellows in Week 1, probably ever. Don't go by just the projections: Prescott faces the Browns Sunday, and one might notice a rather low scoring projection of 16.4 PPR points, a fraction below the expectation for his opponent, Browns QB Deshaun Watson. (Giants QB Daniel Jones is also projected for 16.7 points. Good luck there.) The Browns earned the oft-dubious honor of being the top D/ST in ESPN average live drafts (mostly because ESPN ranked them there), so there is fear of Prescott stumbling. It might happen. Probably won't, though. Prescott topped 16.4 PPR points in 10 of the final 12 games last season, and he led the league in touchdown passes. If anyone is motivated to prove a point this season, he is. Watson hasn't played well in years. No way I would sit Prescott for Watson.
Do trust your gut: ESPN Fantasy provides expert projections, rankings, columns, more rankings, an award-winning podcast and just about everything except tailgating recipes -- hmmm, why aren't we doing that? -- and one can choose to use this information as much or as little as desired. It can create massive overthinking. This video recommends this player, while someone on the podcast is fading him. One ranker does this, but another does that. Whom should we believe? Look down around your midsection. It's called a gut. It serves several critical functions, but for our purposes, trust it when deciding whom to play or not to play for fantasy. It's your team(s). Trust your gut, not mine or anyone else's.
Don't put your trust in Geno Smith over these higher-drafted QBs: Another projection oddity is the Seahawks QB expected to outscore three of the top seven QB scorers from last season. Again, anything is possible, but actionably adjusting your rankings -- or picking Smith up from the waiver wire to do this -- is prime overthinking. Sure, Smith might outscore Prescott, Brock Purdy and Jared Goff this week. He might do it again in Week 2. I'm still not playing Smith, who was unexpectedly awesome in 2022 and mostly statistically miserable last season, over these other awesome quarterbacks just because he gets to enjoy a home game against the Broncos.
Do consider the defenses ... but be nimble: Everyone thinks they know which defenses will be awesome and which ones will struggle, but it is all conjecture until the games count, and then things might change quickly. The Broncos famously permitted 70 real-life (not fantasy) points and 726 yards to the Dolphins in Week 3 last season. It skewed expectations for the rest of the season. A few weeks later, the Denver defense started a streak in which it allowed 22 or fewer points in eight consecutive games, which nobody seemed to talk about. No, I don't think the Broncos D/ST is worth a look in fantasy this week or perhaps any week, but I'm not loading up on players opposing them quite yet. Give it a month. I end up streaming defenses in half my leagues anyway.
Don't overthink the Dolphins RB tandem: People are also overthinking the Dolphins running back situation, in part because of what happened against the Broncos nearly a calendar year ago. Rookie De'Von Achane scored 51.3 PPR points that afternoon, while Raheem Mostert chipped in with 45.2. Mostert, a decade older, enjoyed the superior season, averaging 17.8 PPR points over his 15 games, and I won't argue which fellow to invest in for dynasty formats. The ridiculously fast Achane averaged 17.3 PPR points, but over 11 games. The Dolphins kept his volume in check, aiming to avoid injuries, but you can't avoid injuries. Achane is 5-foot-9, maybe 185 pounds. Good luck finding a list of running backs at that size who consistently dominated -- and stayed on the field -- at the NFL level. Achane going six rounds ahead of Mostert in ADP was prime overthinking, and automatically sitting Mostert this week as a flex option is similar thinking. It is a timeshare, and both players can eat.
Do take some chances with your bench right now: There are no bye weeks until October, and most fantasy-relevant options enter this weekend healthy, so I find it interesting that so many fantasy managers are overthinking their bench options. Take a few chances on upside options you might not be able to acquire heading into Week 2. The Dolphins are a fine example, really. This offense is predicated on speed. Achane and Mostert are fast, but durability is an issue. Perhaps it will be for rookie Jaylen Wright as well. Still, Wright is rostered in fewer than 25% of ESPN standard leagues, and an amazing opportunity awaits him. Meanwhile, the following wide receivers that probably aren't going into anyone's lineup during the first month are rostered in more than 70% of standard leagues: Mike Williams, Jakobi Meyers, Marquise Brown (injured), Tyler Lockett and Jerry Jeudy. Plan for bye weeks, but not like this.