Welcome to the Fantasy Football Playbook for Week 1, which kicked off Thursday with the Ravens at the Chiefs.
This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for season-long leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
The advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I'll often mention "shallow" or "deep" leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. "Matchup" is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
(Editor's note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Atlanta Falcons
Projected Score: Falcons 22, Steelers 20
Lineup locks: Bijan Robinson, George Pickens, Drake London, Kyle Pitts
Last season, Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren formed a true backfield committee, with Harris taking the lead as a rusher and at the goal line and Warren handling most passing-down work. Harris finished with 195.5 fantasy points (RB23), and Warren was just ahead with 196.4 (RB22). We should expect similar usage in 2024, though with perhaps more volume due to run-heavy Arthur Smith calling the offense. Both backs are flex options against a solid Atlanta front.
Over/Under: 42.1 (12th highest)
Win Probability: Falcons 58% (12th highest)
Arizona Cardinals @ Buffalo Bills
Projected Score: Bills 28, Cardinals 21
Lineup locks: Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, James Cook, James Conner, Marvin Harrison Jr., Trey McBride, Dalton Kincaid
Week 1 will give us our first look at an overhauled Buffalo WR room that will sub in Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel for offseason departures Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. The priority order is unclear, but this unit -- which also includes Khalil Shakir -- is in a good spot against one of the league's shakiest/most unproven CB rooms. Coleman's draft pedigree (second-round rookie) and playmaking ability suggest he's the best flex flier.
Over/Under: 48.9 (4th highest)
Win Probability: Bills 76% (2nd highest)
Tennessee Titans @ Chicago Bears
Projected Score: Bears 24, Titans 19
Lineup locks: Calvin Ridley, DJ Moore
This game is overloaded with borderline flex options and there's added risk since all of them are either on a new team, operating in a new scheme and/or working with a new quarterback. At RB, D'Andre Swift is your best choice as he's expected to lead the Chicago backfield, though note that the Jeffery Simmons-led Titans defense has allowed the fewest RB fantasy points over the past three seasons. The Tony Pollard/Tyjae Spears split is yet to be determined, leaving both as risky flex plays. It's a similar story at wide receiver, with Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze making their Chicago debuts against one of the league's best CB rooms. (It will help them if L'Jarius Sneed shadows Moore.) DeAndre Hopkins has added risk as he could be limited due to a knee injury that he suffered in July.
Over/Under: 43.0 (10th highest)
Win Probability: Bears 65% (6th highest)
New England Patriots @ Cincinnati Bengals
Projected Score: Bengals 27, Patriots 18
Lineup locks: Joe Burrow, Rhamondre Stevenson, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins
Zack Moss is listed as the Bengals' lead back, but Chase Brown opened the preseason with the starters, so a full-on committee is likely. Similar to the split we saw in Pittsburgh last season, we can expect Moss to hold an edge in carries and at the goal line, with Brown manning most passing-down work. In what is a very pass-heavy offense, that gives Brown a slight edge in the ranks, although neither is an appealing flex.
Over/Under: 44.2 (8th highest)
Win Probability: Bengals 80% (Highest)
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts
Projected Score: Texans 25, Colts 24
Lineup locks: Anthony Richardson, C.J. Stroud, Jonathan Taylor, Joe Mixon, Michael Pittman Jr., Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs
We're starting basically everyone here, but Tank Dell is a close call, as he's a good bet to open the season third in line for targets in Houston. Dell was terrific as a rookie (18.8 fantasy PPG during the eight games in which he played most of the snaps), but he also had four 10-plus-target games during those outings, which is a number he might struggle to reach with both Collins and Diggs on the roster. Consider Dell a fringe WR3 against a not-so-intimidating Colts CB room.
Over/Under: 48.8 (5th highest)
Win Probability: Texans 56% (13th highest)
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Miami Dolphins
Projected Score: Dolphins 23, Jaguars 19
Lineup locks: Travis Etienne Jr., De'Von Achane, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Christian Kirk, Evan Engram
Achane is listed as a lineup lock and Raheem Mostert as more of flex option, but the reality is that you'd be hard-pressed to sit either one after the damage they did in 2023. Of course, you'd be betting on both sustaining elite efficiency (a risky bet), as a committee approach remains likely. Last season, there were eight games in which both played significant snaps (Weeks 3-5, 13-16 and 18). During those outings, Achane held a tiny edge in snaps (239-236) and was ahead in both routes (138-104) and targets (35-21, or 14%-8%), but Mostert led in carries (96-83, or 45%-39%). Mostert ended up with more touches (114-106) and TDs (11-9), but Achane had a massive edge in yardage (815-539) and a decent edge in fantasy PPG (19.6-17.0). Note that rookie Jaylen Wright could also get some run in his NFL debut.
Over/Under: 41.8 (13th highest)
Win Probability: Dolphins 65% (7th highest)
Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints
Projected Score: Saints 21, Panthers 19
Lineup locks: Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, Diontae Johnson
Jonathon Brooks will miss the first four games of the season (at least), which sets up Chuba Hubbard as Carolina's probable lead back. Miles Sanders will also be a factor, but the extent is unknown with a new coaching staff in place. Still, Hubbard figures to handle the bulk of the work after taking clear control over Sanders last season. Hubbard finished the season with seven consecutive 11-plus-point outings and ended up ninth in carries and 11th in touches among RBs. New Orleans has been strong against RBs during the Dennis Allen era, so Hubbard is best viewed as a fringe flex option.
Over/Under: 40.0 (16th highest)
Win Probability: Saints 60% (10th highest)
Minnesota Vikings @ New York Giants
Projected Score: Vikings 22, Giants 19
Lineup locks: Aaron Jones, Justin Jefferson, Malik Nabers
With T.J. Hockenson (ACL) sidelined for at least the first four games of 2024, Johnny Mundt is expected to operate as Minnesota's top receiving tight end. We saw this usage during the final two games of 2023 when Mundt delivered receiving lines of 4-39-1 and 5-58-0 on 13 total targets. Both showings were enough for top-12 TE fantasy production. The 29-year-old is a sneaky bet for fringe TE1 production in the short term.
Over/Under: 40.9 (15th highest)
Win Probability: Vikings 60% (11th highest)
Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers
Projected Score: Chargers 24, Raiders 21
Lineup locks: Zamir White, Davante Adams
Just like during fantasy draft season, sorting through the Chargers' skill-position players is a tricky exercise. Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins are expected to split backfield duties, but considering Edwards' extremely limited receiving chops and Dobbins' uncertain role coming off another major knee injury, both are risky plays. At wide receiver, rookie Ladd McConkey is the most intriguing option for the full season, but it's likely that Joshua Palmer (seven-plus targets in six of his final eight games of 2023) will open the season as Justin Herbert's top target, with DJ Chark Jr. and Quentin Johnston also plenty involved. The good news is that you can safely avoid this entire offense in Week 1 and not worry about it at all.
Over/Under: 44.4 (7th highest)
Win Probability: Chargers 61% (8th highest)
Denver Broncos @ Seattle Seahawks
Projected Score: Seahawks 24, Broncos 18
Lineup locks: Kenneth Walker III, DK Metcalf
Metcalf is listed as a lineup lock, because he's just that good, but note that he has a very tough matchup with shadow coverage by Pat Surtain II. That sets up second-year WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba and veteran Tyler Lockett with plus matchups away from Surtain's coverage. JSN enters the season as a breakout candidate and gets a boost into the WR3 conversation, whereas Lockett is a viable Week 1 flex option.
Over/Under: 42.1 (11th highest)
Win Probability: Seahawks 73% (3rd highest)
Dallas Cowboys @ Cleveland Browns
Projected Score: Cowboys 21, Browns 20
Lineup locks: CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, David Njoku
Bench Dak Prescott? It's not the worst idea against an elite Browns defense that allowed a league-best -110 EPA (-6.5 per game) last season and returns all eight defenders who played 600-plus snaps for the unit last season. In fact, only one QB even reached 17.5 fantasy points on the road against Cleveland last season -- and Lamar Jackson required two rushing scores to pull it off.
Over/Under: 41.3 (14th highest)
Win Probability: Cowboys 51% (15th highest)
Washington Commanders @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Projected Score: Buccaneers 24, Commanders 20
Lineup locks: Rachaad White, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Terry McLaurin
Jayden Daniels makes for a fine streaming option in his NFL debut. There's risk here -- it is his first game, after all -- but even if he underperforms as a passer, Daniels' elite rushing ability provides him with a good fantasy floor. This should be a good matchup, as the Buccaneers' defense looks to be a bit worse on paper than the 2023 unit that allowed the fifth-most passing yards and ninth-most QB fantasy points.
Over/Under: 43.9 (9th highest)
Win Probability: Buccaneers 66% (5th highest)
Los Angeles Rams @ Detroit Lions
Projected Score: Lions 28, Rams 23
Lineup locks: Jahmyr Gibbs, Kyren Williams, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, Sam LaPorta
Jameson Williams is primed for a larger role this season, but the third-year receiver is a risky Week 1 play considering he has seen four-plus targets in just three of his 21 career games. An upgraded Rams CB room also presents a threat, so Williams, who had two touchdowns on three touches in his most recent game (vs. 49ers in the NFC Championship Game), should be in the flex spot only in the deepest of formats.
Over/Under: 51.3 (Highest)
Win Probability: Lions 68% (4th highest)
New York Jets @ San Francisco 49ers
Projected Score: 49ers 25, Jets 22
Lineup locks: Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, Deebo Samuel Sr., Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle
Brock Purdy and Aaron Rodgers both enter the season as borderline QB1 options, but neither are recommended Week 1 starts against top-end defenses. Purdy will need to deal with the stacked Jets defense that allowed the fewest QB fantasy points last season, whereas Rodgers will debut against a 49ers unit that surrendered the sixth-fewest points to the position, despite facing the third-most pass attempts.
Over/Under: 46.8 (6th highest)
Win Probability: 49ers 60% (9th highest)